陈小晖

For those stuck in storage and semiconductor stocks, don’t rush to add to your positions. Be patient and wait first—a sharp sell-off is much better than a slow bleed. There will be a rebound, and this kind of recovery can happen quickly, but there’s heavy overhead supply from trapped holders. If a big bullish candle is followed by an upper wick, don’t get greedy.

If you’re holding positions now, add a little at support if it holds, and keep the position. If support breaks, close that trade.

Then be patient and wait for the election results. Even if you’re taking a loss, don’t go all in—keep some flexibility.

For now, I’m not looking for an immediate rally; I just want to lose a little less and wait for things to settle.
If it keeps plunging, a batch of leveraged positions really could get wiped out in succession. Be prepared for a systemic series of sharp sell-offs.

Taking a position on the left side of the move carries high risk but also high potential returns, but it’s still not suitable for the current market. These days, the market starts selling off as soon as evening comes, and you can’t watch it all the time.

When dealing with this kind of extreme market, staying alive is what matters most. #美國選舉 $SKHYNIX $SOXL

Yesterday, Apple’s earnings report came out, and gross margin fell. At the earnings call, Apple CEO John Ternus said rising memory prices were dragging down the company’s gross margin quarter over quarter in the new quarter.

SanDisk Storage and $SOXL have both plunged again. There are too many people stuck holding losses at these levels. Oil started falling before the market opened yesterday, but we still haven’t seen a rebound in the AI chain. There’s also an election today. One thing after another 😂. We can only ride this one out.

Objectively speaking, things are just too weak. Until confidence returns, everything will remain weak without a strong rebound.

I’ll keep waiting. It’s just too easy to catch a falling knife on the left side. We should add to our positions slowly. The previous low has also been broken, which means the daily downtrend has now been confirmed. If it keeps spiraling downward, I’m worried about a cascade of forced liquidations.

I’m still holding my $SOXL and staying calm—what’s done is done.
If you haven’t gotten in yet, those trading the right side should keep an eye on other sectors too.

There’s still no right-side signal for AI hardware.
#苹果财报喜忧参半

Lately, I’ve seen a lot of traders saying: “Using high leverage with a small position gives you more flexibility. There’s no need to use low leverage.” That’s exactly why they got liquidated. The scariest thing isn’t a lack of technical skill—it’s that moment when you get carried away. Leverage is a double-edged sword, and you’ve picked it up by the wrong end.

With high leverage and a small position, when you take a loss, it’s all too easy to add to your position until you’ve committed your entire account. Then, if things go a little worse than expected, you’re liquidated on the spot. That might work if you never made a mistake, but I’m just an ordinary person—I’m nowhere near saintly. I get greedy and afraid, too.

So there are actually plenty of reasons to stick to low leverage: it helps control the risk of letting your emotions take over. Your position stays within what you can handle psychologically, which can reduce impulsive trades.

You can fix a mistake—as long as you still have the chance to. The real danger is getting carried away and not having another chance to make things right. That’s just not worth it.

If you want to survive in the market over the long term, you can’t be right every time. You have to decide what you can and can’t do.

That’s why I’ve always traded with leverage of around 1–2x.

I hope you can all stay in the market for the long haul and be there when the next bull market arrives, ready to make another leap forward in wealth.

Most selling happens during a slow decline, because bargain hunters are the real buyers stepping in.

The market has no cost basis. Just because something looks cheap now doesn’t mean people will stop selling—they also want to take profits.

So once this cycle is clearly defined, unprofitable AI companies are still opportunities to sell after every oversold bounce.

Waiting for sentiment to recover in the next wave, then relying on a narrative to bring a non-profitable asset back to its original price, is far too difficult.

So if you believe this AI wave isn’t over and want to invest, stick to cash-flow giants and eliminate the risk of potential wipeouts. #AI

Apple reports earnings tomorrow at 6 a.m. Hopefully, hardware price increases won’t be passed on to consumers and trigger another pullback in the AI sector.

The market is skittish right now; the slightest news can set off a chain reaction. But there are two sides to everything.

Lately, other AI stocks have plunged twice on concerns about capital spending and growth, as well as expectations that results will fall short.

If anything comes in above expectations, that could give this rebound a lot more momentum. If you don’t want to bet on an uncertain outcome, you can wait until the 4th to add to your position.

Once the uncertainty has passed, see how the market reacts. There’s no rush to add until the trend turns upward.

#Apple

November is here. First, wishing you guys a strong start and success!

I’m planning to trade less frequently. Even though I got the direction right last month, I still didn’t manage to make any good trades. My holding periods were too short, and I built my positions in batches too quickly. I need to get my mindset back on track and stop taking opportunities I shouldn’t.

This month, I’ll review more and trade less.

Two pre-market plans:

1: I think this move still needs to pull back toward the previous low. I’m not going to guess when it’ll pull back or when it’ll stabilize. I’ll add to my position when it gets there, then hold until the rally runs out of steam.

2: Once the election is over and the uncertainty is behind us, I’ll look at how much money flows back into oil and the AI sector. Then I’ll assess the strength of the rebound. Personally, I don’t think there’s any need to panic at this level.

A rebound after an irrational sell-off needs a pullback to confirm it. Only after that confirmation is there an opportunity to enter on the right side of the trend.
$SOXL

SanDisk’s $SNDK 20 stock split, 1-for-8. Before that, they pushed the share price down, and the funds are also more focused on next quarter’s returns. After the split, it’ll be much easier to unload the shares. Selling at over 1,000 per share was possible when there was enough hype, but there isn’t enough hype now.

It’ll become 150 per share, then they’ll lure buyers in, push it above 200, and start steadily unloading shares as the price drifts down. Who knows—maybe we really will be able to buy SanDisk for around 50 later 😂.

#闪迪

The second giant this year, Anthropic, is set to go public in the middle to latter part of next month, and is going to pull another $1.5–2 trillion out of the market. But right now, enthusiasm for the AI sector is cooling off way too quickly. Going public toward the tail end of the market hype is still pretty stressful. It’s hard to expect a very large gain.

Let’s run the numbers another way: even if the share price doesn’t rise, the company still gets the money it borrowed and can keep operating. The financing costs are close to 10% a year, and aren’t affected by market movements. It’s a win-win for Wall Street and Anthropic, plus there are orders tying all the big players together.

It’s like pumping up trading volume: after the IPO, if the stock goes up, you can use it as collateral; if it plunges right away, you collect the interest. Either way, the orders are still there, and the company has money.

For us, there’s still not much opportunity to get involved. The meat has long since been divided up among the capitalists.

Let’s just wait a little longer.
$ANTHROPIC #anthropic

Markets are like life—no one knows what will happen next. This wave of coin theft liquidated $1.5 billion in long positions. No technical support levels were any help. Market sentiment is spreading way too fast.

$BTC It plunged from 78,763 to 76,519. I wouldn’t say it’s time to buy the dip, but buying a little spot in batches is still a good option.

Market sentiment comes and goes quickly. Right now, sentiment in U.S. stocks is even worse than in crypto. Even with an unexpected incident, BTC hasn’t actually fallen that much. It’s still relatively stable, and there’s money coming in to buy it.

#币安披露黑客事件进展63亿美元损失已弥补八成

Objectively speaking, based on market performance, the AI sector is accelerating toward a bottom, while pharmaceuticals and energy are accelerating toward a top. When all assets plunged, gold failed to serve as a safe haven either; only oil, U.S. Treasuries, and the like saw inflows.

This points to poor liquidity—even gold is being sold off. Are they trying to drive people into U.S. Treasuries?

All we can do is wait until oil starts to fall and see how much money flows back. If, after the decline, the recovery in assets is insufficient,

that would prove that this rebound is followed by the actual distribution phase.

#AI $CL

Another month is over. I was just about back to my previous high, but today’s sell-off wiped out all those gains. A month of work for nothing 😂. I’m resetting and starting to review what happened.

I was still too greedy this time. I got the direction right and knew a correction was coming, but I waited for a sharp drop to buy in. I just couldn’t resist, and I even left an overnight order. By the time I got up, three orders had been filled.

Lately, I’ve really just been playing oversold bounces. I started buying too early on the left side, and the move was too big. Apart from the $SOXL I picked, things were otherwise okay. It was a good reminder from the market: even if you get the direction right, you need to be patient. If an opportunity isn’t yours, it isn’t yours.

I’ve reduced my positions and am taking a break. Let’s see what Monday brings. If there’s another sharp sell-off on Monday, I’ll still finish this trade, but I’ll keep my position size under control. I’ll recover whatever I can. My view hasn’t changed: I still expect a rebound.

I’d also like to say: thanks, everyone, for trusting me. The ideas I share are my own, but when it comes to trading, just follow your own instincts.

I’m not telling anyone to trade the way I do. If you ask, I’ll share my views; whether you use them as a reference is up to you.

Intel's earnings report came out in the middle of the night, and the market took another big dive. At this level, it looks like a second bottom test for the AI sector. It's right not to make trades when things are uncertain. Since there's no way to predict the future, I closed out some of my positions.

We're still not near the previous low, and yesterday's drop was relatively large. If there are some bigger rebounds along the way, you can make a few intraday trades to lower your cost basis.

It's a sharp drop, and all the negative factors are now fully priced in. I expect a lot of people to turn bearish again. There's still a little distance to the previous low. Add in batches.

My view remains unchanged: once this pullback is over, I'm still expecting a rebound over the next 1–2 weeks.

Be patient for now and don't rush. Before the market stabilizes, just keep rolling your liquid positions within the day.

For now, there's no need to rush into a very large position. Once all the earnings reports are out tonight, if there's another sharp drop, then we can go in big.

Let's get past this period of uncertainty first. There's not much to worry about now. This time, Google has also brought down everyone's expectations for AI growth.

That could be a good thing. Over the next 1–2 weeks, on November 5, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index will undergo a 3-for-1 split, which should increase buying demand.

And if oil prices pull back a bit during this period, along with some positive news to give things a boost, the rally could come quickly.

$SOXL still needs to churn around 100 for a while, shaking out profit-takers and rebuilding the uptrend.

#谷歌财报能否守住基本盘

As expected yesterday, the rate decision came with no hike, and the market had already priced that in, so there wasn’t much reaction once it was announced. Earnings still had a bigger impact: Oracle beat expectations and immediately drove a rally across the AI sector. Then Google delivered another huge shock after hours. The risk-reward on this short-term short was indeed very attractive, but unfortunately AAOI stopped me out. Otherwise, I would’ve pocketed a 10-point gain on this short.

Amazon, SanDisk, and Intel still report earnings tonight. After that, most of the uncertainty should be behind us. If there’s another sharp selloff, I can close the short.

After a sharp drop, reopen the long position $SOXL . The long is a trial entry; don’t get in all at once. Still need to scale in.

#股票财报季

Prices are rising again before the market opens, but my view hasn’t changed. There’s a need for a pullback at this level—to shake out the market and test support.

If there’s a sharp drop after the pullback, I’d still go long.

This rebound could continue for about two more weeks after the election.

Once all the uncertainty has been resolved, if prices are still rising, sell into strength.

For very short-term traders: I wouldn’t recommend going long at this level. Resistance needs to be tested, and the risk/reward isn’t favorable enough. If the test of resistance fails, a short position—combined with news catalysts (such as cloud providers’ capital spending growth falling short)—could offer a good risk/reward opportunity to profit from a sharp drop.

For swing traders: Wait for a pullback, then open another long position.

For medium-term traders: Wait until after the election to start building short positions.

So I’ve closed my long position and will first take a short trade, using my last add-on entry as the reference and setting a 5-point stop-loss.

Opened a small short position $AAOI to hedge a bit. I’m not holding this one for long—just seeing how this pullback plays out.

Reduced my long position $SOXL . I’ll assess things tonight and decide whether to increase the position again.

SOXL has pulled back to around 100. It’d be better if it wicked back up. Short-term, the profit-takers need to be shaken out.

Once that’s done, it can challenge the resistance at 123.

I have two plans: if it rallies straight up before earnings, I’ll take profits. If it pulls back and shakes out weak hands, I’ll add to the position and set a stop-loss.

There’s uncertainty to be resolved tonight. If the big players use this to shake out weak hands, it’ll be twice as effective. Better to be cautious for now.

Stay in the game first, then adjust based on what the market does.
#FOMC会议

This time, $SKHYNIX ’s earnings came in, and instead we got a short squeeze.

Microsoft and Google earnings, along with the interest rate decision, are also coming tonight. If it pulls back from here and then continues higher, there’s still some room for a rebound.

Based on the price action over the past few days, expectations are already being priced in ahead of the election. The rebound could last until the election is over, after which the downtrend may resume following a period of consolidation.

There’s still one week to trade the rebound.

In the short term, wait for a pullback and a wick. $SOXL is consolidating around 100. If it pulls back but quickly recaptures 100, then 123 is the next level to watch.

The 28th is going to be exciting: the Fed will announce its rate decision. But I don't think they'll raise rates this time, since the election is on November 4. There's no need for another hike before the election, and employment and the economy are holding up for now. Oil is driving inflation a bit higher, but you win some, you lose some—the growth in U.S. oil exports has been pretty incredible. Inflation is one thing, but they're making a fortune; even buyers in the Middle East and Europe now have to book oil years in advance.

There are a huge number of short sellers lately. And now we're heading into earnings reports from Microsoft, Google, and Amazon. Any sign of trouble, and tech stocks could tank right before your eyes. At these levels, if their capital growth meets expectations and their earnings are decent, it'll trigger a short squeeze.

I still think the real risk comes after the midterm elections. The big crash hasn't happened yet. For now, I'll keep watching to see when the last two uptrends start to weaken. That's when everything will collapse.

#谷歌 $GOOGLB $MSFTB

Volatility is still likely to be high this week. Oil has pulled back a little, but it's still around 100. Right now, too much money is choosing to seek safety in U.S. Treasuries rather than gold. There's not quite enough liquidity in the pool.

On top of that, uncertainty surrounding the rate decision meeting in the early hours of the 29th has most people sitting on the sidelines and seeking safety.

If a rebound starts early this week, it means expectations are being priced in ahead of time—pull back after the rebound. If there's no rebound and prices continue to swing, we'll have to wait for the negative news to be priced in. We also need to test the short-term bottom.

I can't be sure this level will hold, so the only option is to build a position gradually on the left side. For very short-term trades, buy a little during an oversold dip and sell the same day.

#股票财报季

$SKHYNIX Earnings reports are due out soon, and market expectations are already sky-high. Once the news is out, I’m afraid we’ll still have to test the short-term bottom.

Bull markets tend to see sharp drops, while bear markets tend to grind lower. What’s worrying now is that things could start to feel half-dead.

After this wave of selling, the rebound has been weak. Even if we get another decent bounce, I still think we’ve entered the first stage of a downtrend: a sharp drop followed by consolidation and a slow decline. There aren’t many right-side opportunities to take advantage of.

If you’re going long, the only play is an oversold rebound. In the short term, there’s no way to trade the trend.

For shorts, wait for each weak rebound before starting to build a position. The grind lower shouldn’t be too rapid—that’s when distribution is truly getting underway.

#SK海力士据报拟派特别股息