链上福尔摩斯

Crypto market protects itself: security shadows outweigh macro positives, #比特币走势分析 loses $63,000
On Monday (Aug 3), multiple macro positives hit global financial markets, but the crypto asset market failed to follow the rebound. Instead, it kept weakening under the impact of security incidents within the industry, showing a rare decoupling from the macro environment.
Major coins fall together
Most major crypto assets closed lower on Monday. Bitcoin retreated from Sunday’s high of $63,600, dropping about 1% during the day to $62,800, for a cumulative decline of roughly 4% over the past week. Ethereum fell more than 1% to $1,858 and has been unable to regain the $1,900 level since last week; its 7-day drop is about 5%. XRP fell nearly 1% to $1.07, SOL slid about 0.5% to around $73, #DOGE edging down slightly. BNB was one of the few tokens that held steady against the trend, basically flat on the day and still up 1.6% over the week. Hyperliquid’s HYPE dropped to $52.52, with a 7-day decline of 12.8%, the weakest performance among the top ten tokens.
Coldcard attack keeps intensifying
The core reason for mounting market pressure is that addresses related to the Coldcard hardware wallet have been repeatedly swept. According to CoinDesk, a third round of attacks appeared over the weekend, and the total observed losses have expanded to 1,367 bitcoins (about $89 million), involving roughly 4,585 addresses. Judging from the attack cadence, the first round transferred 1,083 BTC out of 1,196 addresses; the third round covered 1,912 wallets but transferred only 208 BTC, showing a pattern of “large first, then small.” This suggests the attackers shifted toward smaller addresses after processing the bigger wallets. Such a systematic, ongoing attack directly undermines users’ trust in hardware wallets as the “last line of defense.”
Fund flows also corroborate this split: on Friday, Ethereum funds saw a small net inflow, while Bitcoin funds recorded net outflows—an unusual situation indicating that, in the short term, security incidents have overwhelmed macro positives and become the dominant variable.
Outlook
In the short run, further developments in the Coldcard case remain the key variable. If panic sentiment continues to build, market pressure may persist. However, in the medium term, improvements in the macro environment could provide potential support for risk assets. Once internal security concerns in the industry ease, the crypto market may realign with macro logic. For investors, the current stage requires balancing near-term uncertainty with medium-term opportunities; risk control remains the top priority.

#tts “TTS = Today, I’m coming clean—I’m panicking.”
“Others yell WAGMI; we yell WTF (Where’s The Food—where’s my food?).”
“We’re not diamond hands; we’re ‘anxious hands’—shaking as we HODL.”

#TTS It was originally just an ordinary sheep, a bit neurotic. It was afraid of prices falling, and also afraid of prices rising; afraid of #K线图 — even more afraid of waking up in the middle of the night to find the position had been liquidated.

The only thing it wasn’t afraid of was bragging in Telegram/Discord communities. One day, it spammed the group and shouted, “I’m not afraid at all! I’m going to the moon! WAGMI!” (We All Gonna Make It).

#TTS When fear reaches its extreme, fate begins to fear. In the cryptic jungle, it’s not the smartest who survive, but the most timid. #胆小羊
Timi’s philosophy is: when things are uncertain, just play dead in place.

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#撸毛教程 b#币安HODLer空投MORPHO How do the great ones increase their numbers? It feels so tiring to do it manually. 😔

Sure

In recent years, major economies around the world have responded to the downward economic pressure after the epidemic through loose monetary policies, and China has also been rumored to be able to "print" 1 trillion yuan to save the market. Although the People's Bank of China has not explicitly taken "large-scale water release" measures, the market has strong expectations for an increase in money supply. Globally, interest rate cuts and monetary easing policies have triggered the risks of debt expansion, inflation concerns, and asset price bubbles. At the same time, the cryptocurrency market has risen rapidly against this background, and investors regard it as a safe-haven asset against the depreciation of legal currencies, especially Bitcoin, which is known as "digital gold" due to its fixed supply. The development of decentralized finance (DeFi) and the influx of institutional funds have further driven the rise of cryptocurrencies. However, with the turmoil in the global financial system, the game between the traditional economy and crypto assets will intensify.

I used to be an ordinary office worker. Although my life was stable, I always felt that something was missing. One time when I was drinking coffee with my friend Mike, Mike talked about his experience of making money in the cryptocurrency circle, which immediately aroused his interest. Mining, hoarding coins, and speculating on coins are both new and tempting to me. Mike said that the threshold for mining is too high now, but hoarding coins is a way of "betting on the future". Holding mainstream coins such as Bitcoin for a long time may have a good return. High-frequency trading sounds exciting, but you need to keep an eye on the market at all times, and the risk is not small. What interests me most is decentralized finance (DeFi) and NFT. These emerging fields have great opportunities and high returns, but Mike also reminded him that the risks of these methods should not be ignored. After listening, I was excited and a little nervous. I decided to start with a small investment and slowly explore. After all, this road is not easy. #币圈段子

SUI is a new public chain developed by Mysten Labs, which aims to solve the bottlenecks of existing blockchains through high scalability and low latency. Most of its core team members come from Facebook's Diem project. SUI uses the Move programming language and focuses on security and asset management. Solana, as a high-performance public chain, achieves high-speed transactions with the PoH consensus mechanism and has a mature ecosystem. Both have their own advantages in consensus mechanism, programming language and scalability.

SUI's parallel processing capabilities and innovative architecture make it theoretically more scalable than Solana. However, whether SUI can replicate Solana's success depends on whether it can quickly establish a developer ecosystem and find "top-level applications". SUI's current technical advantages are obvious, but the market competition is fierce. It faces challenges from Ethereum, Solana and Layer 2 solutions.

The market's interest in SUI stems from its technical potential and team background, but its token economics design and ecosystem development are still key. If the network effect can be quickly formed, SUI has the opportunity to become the next blockchain giant. However, in addition to technology, whether it can attract developers and build strong community support is the key to its future success.

The Layer2 track is a hot spot in the field of blockchain expansion, aiming to increase the transaction throughput of main chains such as Ethereum and reduce gas fees. Layer2 solves the main chain congestion problem and improves efficiency by processing some transactions and smart contract execution off-chain. The main Layer2 technologies include Optimistic Rollups and ZK-Rollups. The former assumes the correctness of off-chain transactions, while the latter uses zero-knowledge proofs for verification.

Current mainstream projects such as Arbitrum, Optimism, zkSync and StarkNet have their own characteristics. Arbitrum and Optimism are mainly based on Optimistic Rollups, while zkSync and StarkNet represent ZK-Rollups technology. In the future, Layer2 interoperability, ZK-Rollups technology applications and governance token mechanisms will become the key development trends of this track.

This year, crypto venture capital firms have raised a total of $2.2 billion in new funds, demonstrating the huge appeal of the digital economy. Amid global economic turmoil, more and more investors are turning their attention to cryptocurrencies and blockchain technology. Despite the high volatility of the crypto market, the potential for blockchain applications in fintech, decentralized finance (DeFi), and other fields has made it a focus of capital pursuit.

New funds are not only flowing into traditional crypto projects, but also concentrated in cutting-edge fields such as Web3.0 and NFT. However, with the gradual intervention of supervision and increasing market uncertainty, venture capital firms are also facing challenges. In the future, the integration of capital and technology will drive continuous innovation in the digital economy. #加密货币课程

When will the new round of rise come? Wait until your current spot profit is lost, wait until your agreed long and short trades are lost, you don’t cherish the profit, and eventually you will find that the spot profit is lost, and the agreed long and short trades are all lost. The dividends are decreasing, and you who operate in intervals have no chips and no principal in your hands, and there will eventually be an exciting bull market. The bull market has nothing to do with you
#美国政府转移BTC #美联储何时降息？

Bitcoin has risen in volume and has reached the MA120 moving average. The market outlook is expected to be higher. If the volume falls back, long positions will be the preferred strategy.
#比特币

Be cautious when chasing highs, and do a good job of defending profits.

Weekly summary

July 20, 2024

I. Think about the answers to several questions

1. The relationship between Nasdaq → Bitcoin → CFDs, now it seems that the water is overflowing layer by layer;

2. In October last year, they were all at the bottom, and began to hype the expectation of interest rate cuts. Bitcoin had ETF bonuses, and everyone rose together, and the rise was very fierce, and the market risk preference was high;

3. Since March this year, the market heat has subsided, the market risk preference has decreased, and funds have begun to group together for big technology defense. CFDs were abandoned first, and Bitcoin was abandoned later. The currency circle was sucked blood or the heat was reduced;

4. In July, $BTC was $53,000, the market risk preference increased, large funds were redistributed, and big technology was adjusted. Funds overflowed to small stocks including Bitcoin, and the prices of most CFDs were still in a bear market.

5. So let's deduce, when will there be a market like last October when everyone celebrates together? I personally think that it may take a few times of water release, provided that the price is also sexy.
2. Is this a rebound or a reversal?

1. My current attitude is to take one step at a time. I think this is just a rebound. It is a good strategy to take every step carefully at this position.

2. It is known that there is a not very standard push at present. It depends on the strength of the adjustment of this push after it reaches the top.

3. From the chart, the top of this wave of push is around 68,000. If you want to continue to rise, the callback should be in the range of 60,000→62,500. Don't go down. Then the next wave of push may break the previous high. Record it for now and look at it later.

3. Finally,

1. It is irrational to short at any time. Wait for the callback.

2. Those who can buy are apprentices, those who can sell are masters, and those who can short are the ancestors.

3. This wave of rise is a good opportunity to observe strength and weakness and adjust positions. Please cherish it.

The second half of the bull market is the real wealth-making stage!

There are many people who are looking at the bull market at present, but there are more people who are afraid of callbacks! Continuously rising in doubt, all trends come from this, so-called buying in closed and selling in agreement, we just need to hold the spot and stay away from the noise.

The milk chart below shows that in the last two rounds of bull markets, when the high point of the previous bull market is reached, it will be adjusted through washing, and then the market will be reopened. In this way

Seeing that the support retest is basically completed, the trend is returning. wld

Last night, it was triggered by an official news of delayed unlocking. A few days before the outbreak, some partners in the Huaguoshan group privately chatted with me about which cottages can be laid out. wld Whether it is my first series, from the perspective of K-line or narrative, it is worth entering. And I have said many times that when the market comes, unlocking is not the key factor for the curbed rise. The rise will continue, and all the market conditions will decide! Too many unexpected things have happened in this round of bull market, but there were actually many unexpected things in the last round of bull market, so we can only strengthen our faith, and we will fight against the enemy and cover the water with earth. It depends on the final result.

This wave of deep pullbacks with an extreme limit of 53.5k, the floating profit chips on the chain fell to a minimum of 74% (7-day MA)

It is worth mentioning that the 73% on July 3, 2020, both of these pullbacks occurred shortly after the BTC mining revenue dropped for half a day