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The future rebound of oil prices will still be constrained, and the market is more likely to show repeated fluctuations and a weak operating pattern. The future trend will depend on three key variables: first, whether major oil-producing countries will reassess production policies and take further measures to cut production; second, whether global inventories will show a significant slowdown or even reverse in the coming quarters; third, whether the growth rate of the global economy can drive a recovery in energy demand. If the above factors do not show significant improvement, the rebound space for oil prices will be limited, and maintaining a weak and fluctuating trend is more reasonable. #美联储降息 #加密市场反弹 #美联储FOMC会议 $ETH $BTC
12.12 Morning Silver Profit Strategy! The bullish trend remains strong, and the pullback is an opportunity to get on board 🚀
Silver is currently firmly in a high-level consolidation within a strong bullish trend! A pullback after hitting a new high is completely normal; it's just a technical washout, no need to panic ~ The core idea is very clear: as long as it doesn't break the key support, we should decisively go long, and the pullback is a chance to enter. Never chase high at resistance levels!
The key line for bulls and bears is 61.3! As long as this line is not broken, the bullish pattern for silver is intact, just follow the trend with peace of mind.
Practical advice: go short decisively in the 63.7-64.2 range, with the first target at 63. If it can break down smoothly, add positions and aim for 62! #美联储降息 $BTC $ETH
The fluctuations are not restrained or supported; this is the current gold situation. When you think it will rise, it falls; when you think it will fall, it rises. To be honest, unless you can pinpoint the highs and lows, it’s hard to get the market right both ways in the past few days.
Analysis of the reasons for the rise in gold prices! Three points are the behind-the-scenes drivers!
1. The Federal Reserve is monitoring inflation, which is still “somewhat elevated,” and since inflation has not yet truly fallen back to the Fed's 2% target, lowering interest rates in such an inflationary environment is still not the optimal state, which is very favorable for gold.
2. Silver seems to be driving up gold prices; silver is currently gaining momentum, creating space for gold's upward adjustment. Another unfavorable factor for the dollar is the unexpected increase in the number of initial jobless claims in the U.S., reflecting a cooling labor market.
3. The Federal Reserve announced it will purchase short-term government bonds starting December 12 to manage market liquidity. An increase in liquidity is generally bullish for risk assets, but unfavorable for safe-haven assets like the dollar, while it is bullish for gold.
Follow-up thoughts on gold's movement for the day
Last night, gold had a big bearish day; it first fell then rose, directly reversing the trend. After a big bullish rise, it indicates that the current trend is incorrect. If the trend is downward and there is a pullback breaking the bottom, then it must be bearish. However, last night's trend for gold was upward, with the daily line breaking resistance continuously, indicating no pullback. Furthermore, the price only retreated in the morning and then closed higher in the evening, which means the market is moving downwards without strength; ultimately, it is still looking upward, which is the reason we mentioned last night to continue looking bullish at 4200.
Gold has been stabilizing around the 5-day moving average. From the current rhythm, it is still a bullish mindset. In an upward movement, such a pullback has disrupted our layout, but it also just compensates the previous bullishness, making the rise more solid. A slow decline in the morning, a pullback in the afternoon, and a secondary rise in the European and American markets—this is the current rhythm. Today, we first pay attention to the 4250 line in the morning, with the upper level near the 4300 mark!
Gold: Buy near 4250 on a pullback, stop loss at 38, target 4285-92! A retraction is initially seen at the 4298-4300 mark to sell, stop loss at 4310, target towards 4260-55! #美联储降息 #美联储FOMC会议 #比特币VS代币化黄金 $BTC $ETH $SOL
Market focus has shifted to Powell's press conference and details on economic forecasts.
The Federal Reserve cut rates by 25 basis points as expected but released hawkish signals, causing short-term volatility in U.S. stocks before closing higher, the U.S. dollar index remained steady, and silver reached an all-time high. Market focus has shifted to Powell's press conference and details on economic forecasts.
1. Global macroeconomics and policy
U.S. monetary policy
The Federal Reserve lowered interest rates as expected, but divisions have intensified: the target range for the federal funds rate was reduced from 3.75%-4.00% to 3.50%-3.75%, marking the third rate cut of the year (a total of 75 basis points). However, the dot plot indicates only one rate cut is expected in 2026, and three FOMC voting members opposed it (Milan advocated for a 50 basis point cut, while Goolsbee and Schmidt supported holding steady), representing the largest internal division since 2019.
Early this morning, the Federal Reserve lowered interest rates by 25 basis points as expected, fully in line with market expectations. However, internal voices have shown the largest divergence this year, and the statement conveyed a "hawkish rate cut" signal, with expectations that future easing steps will be extremely slow, with only one rate cut anticipated in the next two years. Since this statement differs little from previous market expectations, although it presents a hawkish signal, it is not as strong as it appears. After the data was released, gold prices initially fell and then rose, and after Powell's speech, they broke through the key level of 4230. This indicates that the market has largely digested the data expectations. With the upcoming non-farm payroll and CPI data releases, if they confirm a cooling labor market and controlled inflation, gold and silver may have a new round of upward momentum. This morning, gold prices opened and surged from around 28-30, briefly climbing to around 4247 before a high-level plunge. Currently, it has directly broken through the 20 support-resistance level. Key support below is at the 97-00 line. This morning, we participated in the first wave of long positions near 10, with the highest rebound to around 18-19, further confirming the effectiveness of the 20 support turning into resistance. The current trend has shifted from strong to weak, but there has already been a decline of over 40 points today. Meanwhile, the lower levels of 90 and 00 have been touched multiple times this week, recovering from lows. The European and American sessions continue to focus on buying at lower levels. For those without positions, enter long in batches at 97-05, and consider adding some long positions at high levels, with a unified stop at 93 looking at 18-28. Today's likely trend during the day is to first dip and then rebound higher, with the overall range mainly concentrated between 90-20. Currently approaching the lower boundary of the range, the main tone remains to buy first and sell later. If it rallies again, consider shorting at 28-30 after breaking through 20; if it first retraces below 00 and then rebounds to around 18-20, consider shorting in advance. 【12.11 European and American session strategy reference】 ① The first wave of buying near 10 during the day has seen the highest rebound to around 18-19; currently, 97-05 can still be bought in batches, with a stop at 92 looking at 18-26. ② If it successfully rebounds from above 02, pay attention to the break situation at 18-20; if it breaks through 20, consider shorting at 28-30. ③ If the retracement is too strong, and it moves up after reaching 96-97, consider shorting once again at the rebound to 18-20. ④ Overall, today still focuses on buying at lower levels, with a range between 90-28; as long as it does not break 90, we expect it to rise first and then fall. #美联储降息 #加密市场反弹 #加密市场观察 $ETH
Silver is skyrocketing beyond gold! The core logic of this surge is crystal clear!
Recently, the rise of silver has been nothing short of extraordinary, with its increase outpacing gold. The key lies in the "double driving forces" fueling the market!
Financial attributes are the main engine: Similar to gold, as expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve rise, the US dollar and US Treasury yields come under pressure. Silver, being a non-yielding asset, is being wildly sought after for its financial value. More importantly, silver's market size is smaller and its speculative nature is stronger, making it more sensitive to interest rate changes than gold, leading to explosive growth whenever it rises, leaving gold far behind!
Industrial attributes provide support: This is a unique advantage of silver! 50% of the demand comes from industries like photovoltaics and electronics. Now, with clear signs of a global manufacturing recovery, coupled with the trend towards green energy transition, industrial demand continues to grow, forming a dual support of "finance + industry".
This market trend is not just a bubble; the logic is solid, and the momentum is strong! Can it be pursued further? What do you think about the future trends of silver? #美联储降息 #加密市场反弹 #加密市场观察 $XRP $ETH $BTC
Silver skyrocketed by 10.4%! High-level consolidation without a deep drop, is the next surge at 64?
The surge in silver has been explosive! From 56.803, it has soared all the way up, peaking at 62.718, directly rising over 10 points, with bulls in full force!
What's more critical is that after reaching a high, it hasn't made a deep correction; instead, it has tightly consolidated around the high point—this is not a sign of weakness but a typical strong consolidation! Bulls are firmly in control, digesting short-term profit-taking while gathering energy, just waiting for the right moment to surge again.
The operation suggestion is clear: enter the market by buying low in the 61.8-62 range, with the first target set at 63, and after stabilizing, look directly at 64! In such a strong market controlled at high levels, don't easily guess the peak; follow the rhythm of the bulls, and the opportunity to profit is right in front of you~ #美联储降息 #加密市场反弹 #加密市场观察 $ETH $SOL $ZEC
December 11 Morning Crude Oil Analysis The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points, and U.S. crude oil inventories declined less than expected, with WTI crude oil prices closing slightly higher.
From the daily chart perspective, looking at the local level, the current oscillation rhythm shows a minor fluctuation, with K-line alternating between bearish and bullish, testing the previous low around 56. The MACD indicator is intertwined near the zero axis, indicating that bearish performance lacks strength. If the strong support level at 56 is broken, the crude oil trend will enter a downward rhythm in the medium term.
Short-term crude oil (1H) trend continues to test around 57.60, gaining strong support, forming a main alternating rhythm, and turning upward. The upward momentum shows strong strength, recovering all of the day’s losses. In the early session, oil prices are in the main upward trend, and it is expected that there will still be room for another upward movement during the day.
On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve announced a rate cut of 25 basis points as expected, marking the third rate cut this year. Although this move aligns with widespread market expectations, there were significant disagreements within the meeting. In the policy statement, the Federal Reserve signaled that the room for future rate cuts may narrow. This stance was further reinforced in the subsequent speech by Fed Chairman Powell, who emphasized the caution in policy adjustments under the current economic environment, suggesting that the pace of future rate cuts may slow down. As a result of this news, the spot gold market experienced extreme volatility, with prices showing sharp rises and falls. Following the announcement of the Fed's decision, gold prices initially surged quickly, then faced selling pressure and fell significantly, but ultimately stabilized and rose again, standing at the $4230 per ounce mark, closing with a gain of 0.48% on the daily chart.
Gold showed a volatile upward trend on Wednesday. The Asian and European sessions saw a downward trend, while the US session was initially volatile, then after the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision was announced, there was a strong rally in the latter part of the session, ultimately closing with a bullish candle on the daily chart. For today's market, gold is expected to continue its upward trend. Investors should pay attention to intraday adjustment opportunities and consider short-term long positions, with a support level at 4220. However, overall, the gold market remains in a wide range of fluctuations and has not broken this pattern yet. Therefore, in terms of operations, investors need to remain cautious and continue to pay attention to the running conditions within the fluctuation range. In the fluctuation range, consider high selling and low buying; if testing the upper boundary near 4260, consider looking for short opportunities. #加密市场反弹 #美联储重启降息步伐 #加密市场观察 $BNB $ETH $BTC
🔥Gold long position real test profit! 4190 precise layout, current price 4203 directly taking 13 points!
The entry strategy has been highlighted for everyone early on, friends who followed the rhythm to go long are now steadily pocketing a wave of profits~ Currently, the market trend remains strong, the bullish momentum has not weakened, and those holding long positions should continue to hold on, eating profits with the trend without rushing to get off!
Subsequent key focus on the 4210 level breakthrough situation, if it stabilizes, there is hope for further upward movement. For those who haven't entered, don't chase the high, wait for a pullback opportunity to reposition. In terms of operations, set good take profit and stop loss, and steadily grasp every wave of profit! #加密市场反弹 #ETH走势分析 #加密市场观察 $BNB $ETH $BTC
Today the gold fluctuations are small, the core is 'waiting for the Federal Reserve's decision':
1. Everyone is waiting for the result from the Federal Reserve at dawn, and now there are not many who dare to bet heavily; both buying and selling are restrained, and the trading is naturally light, making it hard to move; 2. The expectation of a 25 basis point rate cut has already been fully priced in, and now without new news to stimulate, the market has 'laid flat' in advance; 3. Today there were no sudden geopolitical conflicts or unexpected economic data that could disrupt the market, and there was no external force to push fluctuations.
In simple terms: before the decision, no one wants to be the 'canary in the coal mine', everyone is holding onto their chips waiting for the 'starting gun' at dawn—once the result comes out, gold is sure to move significantly. #比特币VS代币化黄金 $ETH $BTC
Daily News Market Drivers: Gold bulls hesitate, waiting for more clues on Fed rate cuts The Federal Reserve will announce its decision from a two-day meeting on Wednesday evening, with the market broadly expecting a 25 basis point rate cut, despite persistent inflation. Last Friday, data from the U.S. Department of Commerce showed that the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index for September remained above the Fed's annual target of 2%. However, Fed officials believe that a slowdown in hiring, moderate economic growth, and restrained wage increases could lead to a cooling of inflation in the coming months, supporting further easing by the central bank. The strong U.S. JOLTS job openings data released on Tuesday (jumping to 7.658 million in September, and 7.67 million in October) did not change the market's dovish expectations for the Fed. The dollar struggled to maintain the rebound since last week under dovish expectations, providing support for non-yielding gold. Ukrainian President Zelensky stated on Monday that Ukraine will not cede territory or accept painful concessions to end the war, further supporting safe-haven precious metals. Traders are holding off on taking action until they receive more clues about the Fed's rate cut path, with the focus remaining on the latest economic forecasts and Powell's press conference. Technical Analysis: Gold prices need to break through the 4245-4250 resistance zone to open up further upside space #加密市场反弹 #比特币VS代币化黄金 $ETH $BTC
On Wednesday, gold is primarily bullish. On Tuesday, the gold price rebounded after testing the lows, with the four-hour chart showing a long lower shadow, indicating that the support at the bottom of the range remains strong. Today, we can look for a bullish trend based on the four-hour level rebound momentum. Once the direction is clear, we can look for effective support to gradually build long positions. The current price is still oscillating within the range, and we should focus on the daily level 5-10 day moving average support around 4200; below that, 4190 is the low point of the early morning pullback and also the core defense level of the upward structure. We can lock in the 4200-4190 area as a support zone to observe stabilization signals; if it breaks, we will turn to a wait-and-see approach.
For the upper pressure, we can pay attention to the upper range of 4250-4270, where there have been multiple tests of high point pressure recently, and it is also a key resistance area for the day. Currently, the market does not have conditions for a significant one-sided rise or fall, so we can continue to conduct short-term operations of buying high and selling low within this range.
Investment strategy: Buy gold at 4170-80, stop loss at 4160, target at 4230, and continue to hold if it breaks. #加密市场反弹 #美联储FOMC会议 #比特币VS代币化黄金 $ETH $BTC $XRP
Silver short-term surge! 61.374 is the key battle point, here’s where to get on board
Silver has been surging too strongly recently! The upward trend started from 57.504, the structure is super clear, bullish momentum is in full swing, and now it’s rushing to the previous high point at 61.374. Whether this wave can accelerate and break through depends on the performance at this key level!
The bulls just conquered the pressure level of 59.888, and their morale is high, ready for battle! 61.374 is currently the only focus: if the breakthrough is successful, the upward space will open directly, the trend will continue, and those holding positions can hold firmly, while those wanting to get on board can increase their positions accordingly; if it fails to break through and retreats, there’s no need to panic, it’s highly likely to oscillate and digest the gains in the 59.888-61.374 range, as long as it doesn’t fall below 59.888, the upward structure remains intact.
Operational advice is straightforward: decisively act near 60 on a pullback, first target at 61.374, and after breaking through, aim directly for 62! Follow the trend and don’t miss this wave of market movement~#加密市场反弹 #比特币VS代币化黄金 $ETH $SOL