Every day it’s the same shitty stuff, back and forth.
So what? The Americans go short and the Iranians go long— we’ll see who can brag better, who can threaten harder?
At 1:13 a.m., information is released: “Be prepared to let the negotiations fall apart.” At 1:38 a.m., someone else throws out a line: “We’ll never concede—pull it up.”
Within a dozen minutes, both directions. Is this really trading oil? This is just the U.S. and Iran putting on a live performance, outdoing each other’s acting.
Crude Oil Precisely Escapes the Top, Reverses to Buy the Bottom in Gold: A Replay of One Opposite Trade
On 9.23, I went long on crude oil. After closing at the high, I flipped and went long on gold. Let me briefly talk about the logic at the time.
Why go long on crude oil on 9.23? First, the information backdrop. That night, the “golden ten” news kept popping up: the U.S. Secretary of State said talks with Iran were “positive but did not break through,” then turned around to accuse Iran of violating the memorandum and attacking neighboring countries. Meanwhile, Iranian media was also arguing about contacts by the foreign minister that lacked approval. This kind of “talks that won’t stick and can flip at any moment” situation is exactly what the market fears—if anything goes wrong in the Strait of Hormuz, crude oil will directly price in geopolitical risk. Second, the technical side. WTI had just pulled back from the previous high, landing right at my psychological support level—so I went long directly.
Why did I close the long? It had risen too much, seemingly being driven and yanked around entirely by the news. Also, the price action’s uptrend wasn’t very clean. My profit had already reached the target I expected, so I didn’t get greedy. I decisively took profit and locked it in.
The logic for flipping to go long on gold: Simple—oil and gold have recently shown a clear inverse move. If I predict crude oil will pull back, the inflation logic that pressures gold will weaken. At the same time, gold had just crashed into the key area around 4249, with an obvious bottoming signal—so I went long. After that, the gold price smoothly rebounded to above 4300.
A bit of takeaway: In trades like this, being right on the information is only step one. The hardest part is controlling greed—finding the right entry points and taking profits when you have something. #原油 #黄金
The current oil price is too heavily influenced by news and headlines, and since the information hasn’t even come out yet, the price has already reacted violently. If you’re lucky, you just happened to break even at the highest point, and also just opened gold at the lowest point.
Sort out this year’s two rounds of oil-price moves. The oil prices in 2026 were like riding a roller coaster. In February, they first jumped up; in June, they fell back to the 60-something-dollar range; and by September, they suddenly surged back above $100. Many people can’t make sense of it: the same kind of trouble in the Middle East—why did it rise after February and then fall, but surge more fiercely in September? Put simply, it comes down to this: February was “fearing something might happen,” June was “finding that nothing happened,” and September was “something really happened—and there wasn’t any spare supply at home.” February: Everyone was afraid of running out of oil, so they抢 first. The rally in February was mainly because people were scared into it.