ابو كنان الصالحي

الذهب XAUUSD

التحليل 4H

🔹 السعر يتحرك حالياً فوق المنطقة المحورية 4190 – 4178، وهي أول منطقة دعم يجب مراقبتها تزامنا مع اختبار المتوسط المتحرك 50 وكسرها يُرجّح فنيا احتمالات امتداد الهبوط نحو اختبار خط الاتجاه الصاعد

🔹مؤشّر RSI يظهر ضعفاً واضحاً في الزخم دون مستوى 50، ما يدعم سيناريو التصحيح الهابط، أو على الأقل التحرك العرضي المائل للهبوط

🔹السيناريو المرجح قبل اجتماع الفيدرالي هو: التحرك بشكل عرضي مائل للهبوط نحو 4178 – 4169، مع بقاء 4145 ثم 4128 وربما 4116 هدفاً محتملاً إذا ضغطت تصريحات الفيدرالي.

🔹احتمالات الصعود ستكون محدودة طالما بقي السعر تحت 4245.

Gold XAUUSD

🔹Gold is slightly retreating as traders remain in cautious anticipation before this week's Federal Reserve meeting.

🔹The most significant event is the update of the Dot Plot, which will determine the expected number of interest rate cuts for 2026, the most sensitive variable for markets currently.

🔹According to initial estimates, markets are pricing in only one cut next year, which means any more hawkish message could pressure gold.

🔹Conversely, the selection process for a new Federal Reserve chair remains a wildcard and may increase volatility in inflation and interest rate expectations, thus directly impacting gold.

🔹The continued weakness of the dollar and the decline in real yields remain supportive of gold, but the absence of a clear vision from the Federal Reserve keeps the movement within a narrow range $PAXG

Bitcoin is facing weak demand amid structural challenges
According to BlockBeats, the latest report from Bitfinex highlights that Bitcoin is undergoing a phase of weak demand immediately alongside ongoing structural fatigue. Although the market shows signs of stability, it is still far from a healthy recovery. The price of Bitcoin has risen from its recent lows but continues to fluctuate within a narrow range of $84,000 to $91,000, contrasting with the S&P 500 index, which is approaching its historical highs. This underscores Bitcoin's relative weakness and increasing disconnection from traditional risk assets.$BTC

🏦 The People's Bank of China continues to boost its gold reserves for the 13th consecutive month.

Total purchases amounted to approximately 1.32 million ounces since October 2024.

Reserves increased to around 74.12 million ounces by November 2025, according to data from the People's Bank of China$PAXG

🔴 UBS Forecast: The Federal Reserve will inject $40 billion monthly into the market.

📰 UBS expects that the Federal Reserve will purchase short-term Treasury bills (T-bills) worth $40 billion monthly starting from early 2026.

📰 This action is considered a liquidity injection, not a monetary tightening, and will drive risk assets to record strong gains.

🔴 The main event: The focus this week is entirely on the Federal Reserve's (FOMC) decision regarding interest rates.

📰 Key forecasts: Market expectations are nearly certain (about 90%) for a 25 basis point rate cut.

📰 Scenario One (Dovish): A 25 point cut, accompanied by a weak tone indicating continued easing into 2026.

📊 Impact: This scenario would support gold and stock prices, putting the dollar under downward pressure.

📰 Scenario Two (Hawkish): A 25 point cut, but with a "cautious" message indicating a temporary halt after this cut.

📊 Impact: This scenario would surprise the markets, supporting the dollar and threatening to increase bond yields.

📰 The big surprise: Keeping rates unchanged, which is a low probability but would lead to a violent shock and a strong rise in the dollar.

🖍️ Summary: Markets are looking for a cut, but the language of the Fed's statement will determine the main trends for currencies and metals.$PAXG

هارفارد تفضل البيتكوين على الذهب بالأرقام!

قامت جامعة هارفارد بزيادة حيازتها من البيتكوين بشكل ضخم:
من 117 مليون دولار ⬅️ إلى 443 مليون دولار (قرابة 4×)

🔷وفي نفس الفترة:
حيازاتها من صناديق الذهب ارتفعت من 102 مليون ⬅️ 235 مليون دولار (قرابة 2×)

🔷 هذه الأرقام تكشف تفضيلًا واضحاً:

هارفارد تستثمر في البيتكوين بضعف استثمارها في الذهب — بنسبة 2 إلى 1.

🔷أحد أكبر الصناديق الجامعية في العالم يرى مستقبل القيمة يتجه نحو البيتكوين.$BTC

‏#السوق_الامريكي

يتباطأ التوظيف في الولايات المتحدة بمعدل مثير للقلق:

‏أعلن أصحاب العمل في الولايات المتحدة عن خطط لإضافة 497,151 وظيفة منذ بداية العام، وهو أضعف إجمالي منذ عام 2010 عندما تم التخطيط لـ 392,033 عملية توظيف في أول 11 شهرًا من العام.

‏ويمثل هذا أيضًا انخفاضًا بنسبة -35٪ عن 761،954 المعلن عنها خلال نفس الفترة في عام 2024.

‏من المتوقع أن يتجه التوظيف الآن نحو الانخفاض للعام الخامس على التوالي.

‏في نوفمبر/تشرين الثاني، أعلنت الشركات عن 9074 خطة توظيف فقط، وهو ثاني أدنى مستوى لهذا الشهر منذ عام 2016 على الأقل.

‏وفي الوقت نفسه، انخفضت نوايا التوظيف الموسمية إلى 372,520، وهو أدنى مستوى على الإطلاق منذ بدء جمع البيانات في عام 2012، مع عدم وجود إعلانات جديدة في نوفمبر/تشرين الثاني.

‏الطلب على التوظيف في الولايات المتحدة وصل إلى مستويات الأزمة.

مع اقتراب عام 2026، تدخل اقتصادات الأسواق الناشئة مرحلة حساسة تترقب فيها قرارات الفدرالي الأميركي ومسارات النمو والتدفقات الرأسمالية العالمية

وبين توقعات خفض الفائدة أو احتمالات الإبقاء على التشديد طبقاً لأي مستجدات قد تطرأ، تتباين السيناريوهات المطروحة حول قدرة هذه الاقتصادات على امتصاص الصدمات وتحويلها إلى فرص

تاريخياً، كانت دورات تخفيف السياسة النقدية من الفدرالي داعمةً بشكل خاص لأسهم الأسواق الناشئة عندما لا يعقبها ركود

Binance obtains the first global license for digital assets from the Financial Services Regulatory Authority in the Abu Dhabi Global Market 🇦🇪 This license allows Binance to operate its platform under a comprehensive and internationally recognized regulatory framework. A step that enhances trust in the platform and supports the growth of the digital currency sector in the region. An important achievement that reflects the UAE's expansion in adopting financial innovation and blockchain.$BNB

📈 اتساع تضخم السلع يزداد… هل نقترب من دورة صعود جديدة؟

🔹 اتساع التضخم في السلع يقترب من 60%—وهو مستوى تاريخيًا سبق دورات صعود قوية (2000 – 2007 – 2021).
🔹 مؤشر السلع GSCI يحاول التماسك بعد التصحيح، في حركة مشابهة لسنوات الانطلاق 2010 و2016.
🔹 زيادة عدد السلع ذات التضخم الإيجابي تعكس إما قوة الطلب أو ضعف العرض.

ماذا يعني للأسواق؟
• احتمالات صعود أكبر في الطاقة، المعادن، والغذاء.
• ارتفاع مخاطر التضخم العالمي—خصوصًا مع أي ضعف للدولار.
• إشارة مبكرة على إمكانية دخول دورة سلعية جديدة.

الخلاصة:
البيانات تشير إلى بداية محتملة لدورة صعود واسعة عبر معظم السلع—not فقط الطاقة.

🗓️The month of December is filled with important economic events that have a significant impact on the markets:

🗓December 10: The interest rate decision issued by the U.S. Federal Reserve.🇺🇸

🗓December 16: The NFP jobs report that has been postponed.

🗓December 18: Consumer Price Index (CPI).

🗓December 19: The interest rate decision issued by the Bank of Japan.

Michael Saylor points to the possibility of acquiring Bitcoin
According to Foresight News, Strategy founder Michael Saylor once again shared information related to the Bitcoin indicator, saying "₿ack to Orange Dots." Historically, Strategy has revealed Bitcoin acquisitions the day after such announcements.$BTC

من المتوقع أن يصل نمو الناتج المحلي الإجمالي الأمريكي إلى 3% هذا العام
وفقًا لبلوك بيتس، فقد صرح وزير الخزانة الأمريكي بيسنت أن معدل نمو الناتج المحلي الإجمالي للولايات المتحدة من المتوقع أن يصل إلى 3% هذا العام.

Russia sells from its gold reserves

Several sites and analyses circulated over the weekend a news story stating that Russia has begun selling gold from its reserves.
Although the news is correct, it is old and dates back to 20/11/2025, indicating an attempt to recycle it to create an impact in the markets.

Economic sources indicate the existence of global media misinformation aimed at capitalizing on this news and driving gold prices up by inflating the event.

According to the report, the Russian central bank plans to sell about 350 tons of gold by the end of 2026.

To understand the significance of the number more clearly:
China's total gold purchases since the beginning of 2024 until today have reached only 70 tons
This means that Russia plans to sell an amount equivalent to 5 times what China has bought over two years.

Statements shake markets before the Federal Meeting

Kevin Hassett – former economic advisor to the White House and candidate to succeed Jerome Powell – stated that the time is right for the Federal Reserve to cautiously lower interest rates again, adding that he expects another cut during next week's meeting.

According to reliable economic sources, economists expect the Fed to implement another cut this week to address the increasing risks in the labor market, followed by:

🔹 A temporary halt in the cutting cycle after this week's step
🔹 Only one additional cut in 2026 by 25 basis points
🔹 The beginning of this potential cut will be in March 2026 (03/2026)

Economists believe that any step to lower interest rates now will likely be accompanied by a long waiting period before resuming monetary easing again.

{Basic Tips for Beginners and Traders}
✅Continuous Education: Never stop learning; understand the market, technical and fundamental analysis, and use modern technology.
✅Create a Trading Plan: Define your goals, strategies, entry and exit points, and document them to avoid emotional decisions.
✅Risk Management: Do not risk more than 1-2% of your capital on a single trade, and always use stop-loss and take-profit orders.
✅Start Cautiously: Begin with small amounts or a demo account to gain experience before risking large sums of money.
✅Diversification: Do not put all your money in one basket; diversify your investments among different assets (currencies, commodities, indices).
✅Focus: Start by focusing on one market or one currency pair to become an expert in it.
✅Patience and Discipline: Trading is not a get-rich-quick scheme; be patient and committed to your plan.
✅Avoid Emotions: Do not let fear (FUD) or greed (FOMO) control your decisions; stay calm.
✅Start with Comprehensive Analysis: Begin by looking at larger time frames (daily, weekly) to determine the overall trend, then move to smaller frames.
Tips for Navigating the Market
✅Monitor the Market: Track your investments and adjust your strategy if necessary, being cautious of market changes.
✅Learn from Mistakes: Mistakes happen, but learning from them is what makes you a better trader.
✅Beware of Scams: Be cautious of enticing offers that promise quick and unrealistic profits.

Binance Market Update: Cryptocurrency Market Trends | December 6, 2025
According to CoinMarketCap data, the global market capitalization of cryptocurrencies is now $3.04 trillion, a decrease of 2.08% in the last 24 hours.

Bitcoin (BTC) traded between $88,056 and $91,564 during the last 24 hours. As of 09:30 AM (UTC) today, BTC is trading at $89,619, a decrease of 1.85%.

Most major cryptocurrencies by market capitalization are trading mixed. The currencies that are outperforming the market include LUNC, LUNA, and ACE, with increases of 72%, 41%, and 30% respectively.$LUNC $ACE $BTC