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#黄金 How can we celebrate the New Year without fighting back? More than a month before the New Year, the cabin action has started!
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Yesterday, gold experienced a significant rise after a pullback, with the movement completely under the analysis and control of Haotian, where the short position at 4342 was closed at 4309.
In the evening, additional short positions were taken near 4365, and all were closed near 4340. The fluctuation and adjustment of gold prices are evident, and there is still a demand for continued fluctuation and adjustment today. The main theme is high shorts and low longs during the fluctuations.
Yesterday, in terms of fundamentals, a joint survey by the Federal Reserve showed that tariff issues continue to disrupt businesses, and the market expects inflation to rise by 4% next year. Federal Reserve Governor Waller stated that current monetary policy remains in a restrictive range, with room for interest rate cuts; the employment market also supports the Fed's continued rate cuts, with the current interest rate level higher than the neutral rate by 50-100 basis points. The Fed's dovish stance directly suppressed the strength of the dollar, while the gold and silver markets responded with a strong rally.
Today's key fundamental events to watch are as follows: 20:00 Bank of England announces interest rate decision until December 18, with the market expecting a rate cut of 25 basis points; 21:15 European Central Bank announces interest rate decision; 21:30 the U.S. releases the unadjusted CPI year-on-year for November, the adjusted CPI month-on-month for November, and the number of initial jobless claims for the week ending December 13, with the expected CPI year-on-year value being 3.1%; 21:45 European Central Bank President Lagarde holds a monetary policy press conference.
Yesterday's crude oil trend accurately matched the analysis and prediction, with a steady recovery throughout the market. Crude oil opened at $55.17, and after the morning opening, it strengthened directly, with the Asian and European sessions continuing to rise. The U.S. session further extended the upward trend, reaching a high of $56.90, and closing at $56.84, ending strongly.
The daily chart recorded a saturated bullish candle, with clear stabilization signals. The intraday operation suggestion is to rely on the support at $55.60 below to establish long positions, with an initial target of $58.0 above. Specific operational points are based on Haotian's real-time layout.
Yesterday, gold experienced a fluctuating upward trend, with the movement completely grasped by Haotian's analysis! Shorts were placed around 4345-4355, and gold fell as expected to around 4306 USD for a perfect profit!
The US market did not continue the downward trend, stabilizing around 4306 USD before launching another attack, with prices reaching a high of 4348.8 USD, just a step away from the previous high. From the current pattern, gold still has further upward momentum and demand during the day.
In the morning, we look for a bearish trend, focusing on the support level at 4305 USD. If it holds on a pullback, we will go long! Resistance is seen at the level of 4354 above.
Gold precisely opened a short position at 4335 in the afternoon, and the current price has dropped sharply to around 4308, making a huge profit of 2900 points! Witnessed by the entire network!
Gold opened today and started a rebound mode; in the afternoon, gold rebounded to a maximum of 4342.2 USD. We perfectly entered a short position at 4335 USD!
Fearless of the rebound, gold fell as expected, currently dropping to a minimum of 4308.5 USD. Our short position at 4335 has brought in significant profits, sweeping nearly 2900 points, witnessed by everyone! Currently, we continue to look bearish on gold, with a target of 4270 USD below!
It has been a little over half a month since the shift from Bitcoin to gold, during which there have been many ups and downs. Wei Bo and Xiao🍠 have been consecutively banned, but our fans have always been there. Thank you for your trust 🤝
Still the same saying: Since we are going to do analysis, we must do it to the extreme, and be responsible for every fan. Respect the market, and align knowledge with action!
Silver breaks through $64.5 leading the rise, gold-silver ratio breaks down releasing strong signals
The momentum of the U.S. labor market is slowing, providing support for the rise in gold prices. Despite strong non-farm payroll data, the rising unemployment rate and weak wage growth both point to an economy that is cooling down. This mixed data has increased market expectations for further interest rate cuts in 2026. As a result, the dollar weakened, enhancing the attractiveness of gold.
The Federal Reserve will cut interest rates again in December, but officials still have differing views on the policy path for 2026. The market expects at least two rate cuts next year, but some policymakers remain cautious. Any hawkish comments from Federal Reserve officials who are about to speak could trigger a short-term rebound in the dollar.
However, with cooling inflation and slowing growth, the overall trend provides bullish support for both gold and silver. Additionally, silver is leading gold and has successfully broken through the level of $64.50 per ounce. The breakdown of the gold-silver ratio confirms silver's dominant position in the precious metals space. Economic weakness, especially in retail sales and employment, has enhanced the appeal of silver as a hedge against financial uncertainty.
The growing divergence between the strength of hard assets and the weakness of the dollar continues to support these two metals. If the upcoming inflation data confirms the trend of slowing inflation, silver is expected to expand its gains alongside gold in the upcoming trading sessions. Furthermore, the bearish structure of the dollar index also adds momentum to this rally. As traders await key inflation data, the path of least resistance in the precious metals market seems to favor an upward trend.
Yesterday afternoon feedback on crude oil short positions
The short position on crude oil at 56.40 reached a low of 54.87, perfectly hitting the target range! The recent market feel has been excellent, and the short positions are performing quite well.
Last night's non-farm market showed a general fluctuation trend, and I mainly laid out short positions, holding from 4335 all the way to around 4300, after which I chose to observe and did not continue to participate.
In the afternoon, I re-entered short at 4338, and I am currently floating a profit of several points. In the upcoming European session, as long as the price rebounds, I will still consider continuing to short at high points.
The recent high short strategy has shown clear effects, with profit margins usually in the tens of points. In my view, any rebound is worth being cautious about.
Opportunistically short between 4330 and 4335, with the initial target set at around 4290.
Yesterday's gold trend basically replicated Friday's script: whatever gains were made during the day were largely lost in the evening. Furthermore, the rebound today has shown a notably weak momentum, continuing to decline as of the time of writing. From a technical perspective, it is possible that gold prices will continue to retrace and test the support level around Friday's low of 4260. The short positions established at 4315 in the morning have seen some exits, while the remaining ones continue to be held.
Tonight, we will see the non-farm payroll data, with the market currently expecting an increase of about 40,000 jobs in November. However, considering the recent ADP employment data and the continuous decline in initial jobless claims, it is difficult for this non-farm payroll data to show an optimistic performance, and it is likely to remain below expectations, which will provide certain bullish support for gold.
If before the data is released, gold prices can pull back and approach the 4260 level, combined with the potential positive news from the non-farm payroll, this would be a relatively ideal setup opportunity, and everyone can pay close attention to the reactions in this area; if 4260 is effectively broken below, the next support level will be around 4245. The upper pressure during the day is mainly concentrated at the two key points of 4315 and 4340.
Gold has experienced a decline today, with short positions around 4315 being executed, and the overall space has been realized; crude oil has seen a slight retreat today, with limited fluctuation. This evening, the non-farm payroll data will be released, and we will focus on whether it can bring new trading opportunities to the market. Real-time market conditions should be guided by in-session guidance.
Currently, the daily gold chart remains in a high-level range oscillation pattern, with continuous long upper shadows appearing in the candlesticks, indicating a weakening of short-term upward momentum, and prices are clearly under pressure near the 4350 line. At the 4-hour level, short-term moving averages are starting to turn downward and display a divergent trend. Candlesticks continue to be under pressure below the short-term moving averages, showing an overall weak trend. In the short term, attention should be paid to the defense situation in the support area around 4265–4270. After experiencing a bottoming rebound at the hourly level, it is currently maintaining a narrow range of oscillation at low levels, with technical patterns showing signs of gradual repair completion. There may be some rebound space in the short term, and we need to pay attention to the rhythm changes during the subsequent adjustment and repair process.
Short positions near 4295-4300, stop loss at 4310, target 4260-4240!