天才交易员小白
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Mutual communication, mutual exploration, please join the group, share market information every day. Intelligence sharing, let's eat our fill together.
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United States, November Seasonally Adjusted Non-Farm Employment
Institutional Outlook: Abnormal non-farm data will be revealed tonight, and the market calls for cautious interpretation
On December 16 at 21:30 Beijing time, the U.S. Department of Labor will release the highly anticipated non-farm payroll report for November. Due to the ongoing impact of the previous federal government shutdown, this report has been flagged as 'abnormal' by several institutions, significantly increasing the difficulty of interpreting its data and authenticity.
According to a survey of economists, the median forecast for the number of new non-farm jobs in November is 50,000. Citibank expects job positions to rebound by 80,000, while the forecasts from TD Securities and Continuum Economics are 70,000 and 40,000, respectively. Regarding the unemployment rate, the market generally expects it to rise further from 4.4% in September to 4.5%, reaching the highest level since 2021.
On December 16 at 21:30 Beijing time, the U.S. Department of Labor will release the highly anticipated non-farm payroll report for November. Due to the ongoing impact of the previous federal government shutdown, this report has been flagged as 'abnormal' by several institutions, significantly increasing the difficulty of interpreting its data and authenticity.
According to a survey of economists, the median forecast for the number of new non-farm jobs in November is 50,000. Citibank expects job positions to rebound by 80,000, while the forecasts from TD Securities and Continuum Economics are 70,000 and 40,000, respectively. Regarding the unemployment rate, the market generally expects it to rise further from 4.4% in September to 4.5%, reaching the highest level since 2021.
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The Fed's rate cut is confirmed; will the future trend head south or north?
The Federal Reserve announced its third rate cut of the year on December 11 at midnight Beijing time, lowering the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 3.50%-3.75%.
1. Key information on the latest rate cut decision
Magnitude of the rate cut and current interest rates:
This rate cut of 25 basis points brings the federal funds rate target range down to 3.50%-3.75%, marking the sixth rate cut since the start of this cycle in September 2024, with a total reduction of 75 basis points for the year.
Policy divergences and voting results:
The decision passed with 9 votes in favor and 3 against, the most dissenting votes in six years. Among the dissenters, two officials (Kansas City Fed President Esther George and Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee) advocated for keeping rates unchanged, while another official (Fed Governor Michelle Bowman) supported a 50 basis point cut.
1. Key information on the latest rate cut decision
Magnitude of the rate cut and current interest rates:
This rate cut of 25 basis points brings the federal funds rate target range down to 3.50%-3.75%, marking the sixth rate cut since the start of this cycle in September 2024, with a total reduction of 75 basis points for the year.
Policy divergences and voting results:
The decision passed with 9 votes in favor and 3 against, the most dissenting votes in six years. Among the dissenters, two officials (Kansas City Fed President Esther George and Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee) advocated for keeping rates unchanged, while another official (Fed Governor Michelle Bowman) supported a 50 basis point cut.
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Federal Reserve Interest Rate Cut
The global market is currently holding its breath, waiting for the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision at 3 AM Beijing time on December 11, with the probability of a 25 basis points rate cut soaring to 87.6%. However, the market's focus has already shifted to Powell's statements on subsequent policies and the potential impact of the internal division of the Federal Reserve on the path in 2026.
1. Core event dynamics
Expectations and divisions on interest rate cuts have become intense
December interest rate cut how likely: CME's "Federal Reserve Watch" tool shows that the probability of a 25 basis points rate cut this time has reached 87.6%, and the third rate cut of the year has basically been digested by the market. However, the Federal Reserve is rarely split to the edge of a 6:6 tie, with hawks worried about sticky inflation (core PCE around 2.9%) and asset bubbles, while doves emphasize employment risks (unemployment rate rising to 4.4%).
1. Core event dynamics
Expectations and divisions on interest rate cuts have become intense
December interest rate cut how likely: CME's "Federal Reserve Watch" tool shows that the probability of a 25 basis points rate cut this time has reached 87.6%, and the third rate cut of the year has basically been digested by the market. However, the Federal Reserve is rarely split to the edge of a 6:6 tie, with hawks worried about sticky inflation (core PCE around 2.9%) and asset bubbles, while doves emphasize employment risks (unemployment rate rising to 4.4%).
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pippin saw there, got it until the end of time, do $pippin
S
PIPPINUSDT
Perp
Closed
PNL
+123.78%
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Technical Upgrade and Market Tug-of-War: Ethereum Completes Fusaka Upgrade, Price Fluctuates Amid Divergence
A multimillion-dollar Ethereum transaction was confirmed on the blockchain, while at the same time, traders in New York watched the candlestick chart repeatedly hitting $3200 without success. The fervor brought by the technical upgrade and the cold reality of fund flows were playing out in a silent game.
From December 3 to 4, Ethereum successfully implemented a major network upgrade codenamed 'Fusaka'.
The core of this upgrade lies in the introduction of PeerDAS (Peer Data Availability Sampling) technology, which is expected to ultimately increase the data throughput of Layer 2 networks by up to 8 times and significantly reduce users' transaction costs.
From December 3 to 4, Ethereum successfully implemented a major network upgrade codenamed 'Fusaka'.
The core of this upgrade lies in the introduction of PeerDAS (Peer Data Availability Sampling) technology, which is expected to ultimately increase the data throughput of Layer 2 networks by up to 8 times and significantly reduce users' transaction costs.
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Global Cryptocurrency Landscape Reshaped: China and the U.S. Take Regulatory Steps, Bitcoin Enters a New Era of $30 Trillion Settlements
$BTC Bitcoin settled nearly $6.9 trillion in value over the past 90 days, comparable in scale to Visa and Mastercard.
In July 2025, U.S. President Trump signed the (Genius Act) at the White House, establishing the world's first federal regulatory framework for stablecoins; in the same month, the U.S. Congress passed three cryptocurrency-related bills.
Three months later, the People's Bank of China clearly defined stablecoins as virtual currencies, and related business activities are considered illegal financial activities.
Between these seemingly opposing poles, the digital asset market is undergoing structural changes—Bitcoin has attracted over $732 billion in new capital, surpassing the total of all previous cycles.
In July 2025, U.S. President Trump signed the (Genius Act) at the White House, establishing the world's first federal regulatory framework for stablecoins; in the same month, the U.S. Congress passed three cryptocurrency-related bills.
Three months later, the People's Bank of China clearly defined stablecoins as virtual currencies, and related business activities are considered illegal financial activities.
Between these seemingly opposing poles, the digital asset market is undergoing structural changes—Bitcoin has attracted over $732 billion in new capital, surpassing the total of all previous cycles.
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The current ETHSWAPUSDC is in a range-bound pattern, with the price close to strong resistance at 2841.88.
Core Judgment: The short-term trend looks bullish from a technical perspective (bullish alignment of moving averages), but it faces strong resistance and insufficient momentum (low trading volume, appearance of a evening star signal), making a breakout difficult. External market sentiment and news are neutral, providing no directional guidance. The main risk lies in the trading volume failing to support an effective breakout, which could lead to a price pullback.
Key Levels:
Resistance: 2841.88
Support: 2814
Strategy Recommendations:
High sell short: Enter near 2835, stop loss at 2845, target at 2815. Rationale: Following the range-bound pattern, betting on a pullback near the strong resistance level.
Low buy long: Enter near 2810, stop loss at 2805, target at 2835. Rationale: Betting on a technical rebound near the key support level.
The above strategies are based on the premise of range-bound trading. If the price effectively breaks above 2845 or drops below 2805, the pattern may change, and the strategy will be invalid. $ETH
Core Judgment: The short-term trend looks bullish from a technical perspective (bullish alignment of moving averages), but it faces strong resistance and insufficient momentum (low trading volume, appearance of a evening star signal), making a breakout difficult. External market sentiment and news are neutral, providing no directional guidance. The main risk lies in the trading volume failing to support an effective breakout, which could lead to a price pullback.
Key Levels:
Resistance: 2841.88
Support: 2814
Strategy Recommendations:
High sell short: Enter near 2835, stop loss at 2845, target at 2815. Rationale: Following the range-bound pattern, betting on a pullback near the strong resistance level.
Low buy long: Enter near 2810, stop loss at 2805, target at 2835. Rationale: Betting on a technical rebound near the key support level.
The above strategies are based on the premise of range-bound trading. If the price effectively breaks above 2845 or drops below 2805, the pattern may change, and the strategy will be invalid. $ETH
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🔻 Current Trend Qualitative
Core Judgment: The market is in a clear downtrend, driven mainly by technical factors.
📉 Core Bearish Evidence
Technical consensus is bearish:
Trend: Moving averages are in a bearish arrangement.
Momentum: Prices are significantly below VWAP, and trading volume is increasing, confirming strong selling pressure.
Key Support is at Risk:
If the price loses the critical support level of 2826 USDC, it may open up further downside.
⚠️ Potential Variables and Contradictions
The Only Hope: The RSI indicator has entered the oversold area, suggesting a possible short-term technical rebound.
Main Contradiction: This rebound signal contradicts the overall 'volume and price decline' and bearish trend, and the rebound strength may be very limited.
💡 Trading Strategy Proposal
Strategy Type Operation Idea Entry Area Stop Loss Level Target Level Core Logic
Strategy One (Conservative) Trend-following Short Near 2994 USDC 3005 USDC 2834 USDC Following the main downtrend, look for high-probability short opportunities near strong resistance levels.
Strategy Two (Aggressive) Chase Breakouts Near 2834 USDC 2860 USDC 2826 USDC Betting on the weakness of rebounds, continue shorting near secondary support levels, looking down to key support levels.
Summary Advice: The current market is dominated by bears, and the trading idea should primarily focus on shorting on rallies. All operations must strictly set stop losses and be cautious of potential price rebounds near key support levels, which may occur but are expected to be limited in strength $ETH
Core Judgment: The market is in a clear downtrend, driven mainly by technical factors.
📉 Core Bearish Evidence
Technical consensus is bearish:
Trend: Moving averages are in a bearish arrangement.
Momentum: Prices are significantly below VWAP, and trading volume is increasing, confirming strong selling pressure.
Key Support is at Risk:
If the price loses the critical support level of 2826 USDC, it may open up further downside.
⚠️ Potential Variables and Contradictions
The Only Hope: The RSI indicator has entered the oversold area, suggesting a possible short-term technical rebound.
Main Contradiction: This rebound signal contradicts the overall 'volume and price decline' and bearish trend, and the rebound strength may be very limited.
💡 Trading Strategy Proposal
Strategy Type Operation Idea Entry Area Stop Loss Level Target Level Core Logic
Strategy One (Conservative) Trend-following Short Near 2994 USDC 3005 USDC 2834 USDC Following the main downtrend, look for high-probability short opportunities near strong resistance levels.
Strategy Two (Aggressive) Chase Breakouts Near 2834 USDC 2860 USDC 2826 USDC Betting on the weakness of rebounds, continue shorting near secondary support levels, looking down to key support levels.
Summary Advice: The current market is dominated by bears, and the trading idea should primarily focus on shorting on rallies. All operations must strictly set stop losses and be cautious of potential price rebounds near key support levels, which may occur but are expected to be limited in strength $ETH
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ZEC Market Analysis: News Game, Key Support Becomes the Focus
News: Bullish and Bearish Factors Intertwined
Positive Factors:
Institutional Buying: The Nasdaq-listed company Reliance Global Group has centralized its digital asset treasury in ZEC and made additional cash investments, reflecting institutional recognition of ZEC's long-term value.
Unique Value: ZEC# based on the Bitcoin architecture, provides optional privacy and selective disclosure features, which institutions consider compliant and with long-term potential.
Negative Risks:
Regulatory Uncertainty: Privacy coins may face stricter regulatory scrutiny, which is a potential risk for holding ZEC.
Market Speculation Concerns: Some analysts warn that the recent speculation around ZEC may involve a “pump and dump” risk, which requires caution.
💡 Summary and Strategy Reference
Overall, the support area around 455-456 USD is quite critical for ZEC. If it stabilizes in this area, it may test the 480-500 USD range in the short term; conversely, if it breaks the support with volume, further retracement risks need to be monitored.
Operational Strategy Recommendations
Buying Strategy:
Entry Area: 455-456 USD
Stop Loss Price: Below 450 USD
Target Price: 480-490 USD
Selling Strategy:
Entry Area: 485-495 USD
Stop Loss Price: Above 505 USD
Target Price: 465-475 USD$ZEC
News: Bullish and Bearish Factors Intertwined
Positive Factors:
Institutional Buying: The Nasdaq-listed company Reliance Global Group has centralized its digital asset treasury in ZEC and made additional cash investments, reflecting institutional recognition of ZEC's long-term value.
Unique Value: ZEC# based on the Bitcoin architecture, provides optional privacy and selective disclosure features, which institutions consider compliant and with long-term potential.
Negative Risks:
Regulatory Uncertainty: Privacy coins may face stricter regulatory scrutiny, which is a potential risk for holding ZEC.
Market Speculation Concerns: Some analysts warn that the recent speculation around ZEC may involve a “pump and dump” risk, which requires caution.
💡 Summary and Strategy Reference
Overall, the support area around 455-456 USD is quite critical for ZEC. If it stabilizes in this area, it may test the 480-500 USD range in the short term; conversely, if it breaks the support with volume, further retracement risks need to be monitored.
Operational Strategy Recommendations
Buying Strategy:
Entry Area: 455-456 USD
Stop Loss Price: Below 450 USD
Target Price: 480-490 USD
Selling Strategy:
Entry Area: 485-495 USD
Stop Loss Price: Above 505 USD
Target Price: 465-475 USD$ZEC
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The current ETHUSDC is in a 【range fluctuation】 pattern, with a bearish trend but limited volatility.
Core technical drivers: The evening star pattern and the bearish arrangement of moving averages indicate a bearish outlook, but the narrowing BOLL bands and neutral RSI reflect limited short-term fluctuations. Insufficient trading volume also increases the difficulty of signal confirmation.
External environment impact: Market sentiment is neutral, with mixed news, lacking strong macro guidance, further reinforcing the fluctuation trend.
Strategy recommendations:
【Short selling - high throw】Enter at 3037.2 USDC, stop loss at 3050, target at 2973.84. The basis is resistance level combined with bearish signals.
【Long buying - low absorption】Enter at 2943 USDC, stop loss at 2937, target at 3031.97. The basis is support at the lower edge of the range and low volatility characteristics.
Key risks: If support at 2937 is lost or resistance at 3050 is broken, the corresponding strategy will fail, and timely stop loss is required. $ETH
Core technical drivers: The evening star pattern and the bearish arrangement of moving averages indicate a bearish outlook, but the narrowing BOLL bands and neutral RSI reflect limited short-term fluctuations. Insufficient trading volume also increases the difficulty of signal confirmation.
External environment impact: Market sentiment is neutral, with mixed news, lacking strong macro guidance, further reinforcing the fluctuation trend.
Strategy recommendations:
【Short selling - high throw】Enter at 3037.2 USDC, stop loss at 3050, target at 2973.84. The basis is resistance level combined with bearish signals.
【Long buying - low absorption】Enter at 2943 USDC, stop loss at 2937, target at 3031.97. The basis is support at the lower edge of the range and low volatility characteristics.
Key risks: If support at 2937 is lost or resistance at 3050 is broken, the corresponding strategy will fail, and timely stop loss is required. $ETH
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#ETH🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥 still good to follow the trend. It has been up for a day, but ultimately it has come down. $ETH
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#ETH🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥 Sometimes forgetting to take profit is a good thing. It's rare to forget to take the profit box. 😍😍😍😍😍😍😍$ETH
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Shanzhai, really exciting. Get in and eat. $ARC
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Before the dealer raised the price, I received three precise notifications:
One candlestick: A sudden drop, which wiped out my long position.
One piece of news: A negative surprise, which scared away my holdings.
One thought: "Forget it, I'm done, I'm just a retail trader."
Ten minutes after I cleared my position, ETH shot up with a bullish candlestick breaking the previous high $ETH
One candlestick: A sudden drop, which wiped out my long position.
One piece of news: A negative surprise, which scared away my holdings.
One thought: "Forget it, I'm done, I'm just a retail trader."
Ten minutes after I cleared my position, ETH shot up with a bullish candlestick breaking the previous high $ETH
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Friend A: “The stock market has been so exhausting lately, what are you all doing for investments?”
Me: (taking a sip of hand-brewed coffee,淡淡地) “Just playing around, mainly my assets are still in ETH.”
Friend B: (surprised) “ETH? Didn’t that thing drop recently? I heard the volatility was huge!”
Me: (smiling slightly, revealing a hint of profundity) “Volatility? That’s for short-term traders. My ETH isn’t mainly for speculation.”
Everyone: “Then what is it for?”
Me: “I mainly use it for zero-knowledge proofs for my digital identity, and to vote in DAOs, experiencing decentralized governance.
(Everyone looks confused, my inner thought: You guys are playing with K-lines, I’m playing with the future.)$ETH
Me: (taking a sip of hand-brewed coffee,淡淡地) “Just playing around, mainly my assets are still in ETH.”
Friend B: (surprised) “ETH? Didn’t that thing drop recently? I heard the volatility was huge!”
Me: (smiling slightly, revealing a hint of profundity) “Volatility? That’s for short-term traders. My ETH isn’t mainly for speculation.”
Everyone: “Then what is it for?”
Me: “I mainly use it for zero-knowledge proofs for my digital identity, and to vote in DAOs, experiencing decentralized governance.
(Everyone looks confused, my inner thought: You guys are playing with K-lines, I’m playing with the future.)$ETH
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Current Market Conditions and Strategies for ZEC:
Core changes are: strong support at $502.5 has been successfully defended, and the market's short-term momentum has shifted from bearish to bullish.
1. Core Conclusions: Trends and Key Levels
Trend Status: The clear downtrend has been broken, and the market is building a short-term bottom, initiating a rebound.
Key Price Levels:
New Support Level: $520 (effectively tested multiple times, it is the new dividing line between bullish and bearish).
New Resistance Level: $650 - $700 range (this is the key testing area for the success or failure of the rebound).
Original Support Level: $502.5 (has retreated to a secondary support, will be tested again only after breaking $520).
2. Strategy Adjustment: Shift from Short Selling to Focusing on Rebounds
In light of the trend changes, “short on rallies” is adjusted to “focus on buying on dips, or wait for high resistance to short again.”
🟢 Short-term Bullish Strategy (Following the Trend):
Idea: Follow the current rebound momentum.
Entry: When the price pulls back to near the $520 support and shows signs of stabilization (such as bullish patterns on small-scale candlesticks).
Target: Look towards above $600, ultimately reaching the $650-700 resistance area.
Stop Loss: Set below $520.
🔴 Short-term Bearish Strategy (Counter-Trend, Exercise Caution):
Idea: No longer chase shorts, only attempt in the high resistance area.
Entry: Wait for the price to rebound to the $650-700 area and show signs of weakening upward momentum.
Target: Short-term pullback target.
Stop Loss: Set above $700.
3. Essential Observation Points for Decision Making
Volume Verification: Whether up or down, the direction with significantly increased volume is the more reliable direction.
Keep a close eye on $520: This is the lifeline of the current market; if broken, the short-term rebound ends and the downtrend resumes.
Watch Market Sentiment: As ZEC is a relatively small circulating asset, it is easily influenced by large trades from “whales,” and volatility may suddenly increase, so position size must be controlled. $ZEC
Core changes are: strong support at $502.5 has been successfully defended, and the market's short-term momentum has shifted from bearish to bullish.
1. Core Conclusions: Trends and Key Levels
Trend Status: The clear downtrend has been broken, and the market is building a short-term bottom, initiating a rebound.
Key Price Levels:
New Support Level: $520 (effectively tested multiple times, it is the new dividing line between bullish and bearish).
New Resistance Level: $650 - $700 range (this is the key testing area for the success or failure of the rebound).
Original Support Level: $502.5 (has retreated to a secondary support, will be tested again only after breaking $520).
2. Strategy Adjustment: Shift from Short Selling to Focusing on Rebounds
In light of the trend changes, “short on rallies” is adjusted to “focus on buying on dips, or wait for high resistance to short again.”
🟢 Short-term Bullish Strategy (Following the Trend):
Idea: Follow the current rebound momentum.
Entry: When the price pulls back to near the $520 support and shows signs of stabilization (such as bullish patterns on small-scale candlesticks).
Target: Look towards above $600, ultimately reaching the $650-700 resistance area.
Stop Loss: Set below $520.
🔴 Short-term Bearish Strategy (Counter-Trend, Exercise Caution):
Idea: No longer chase shorts, only attempt in the high resistance area.
Entry: Wait for the price to rebound to the $650-700 area and show signs of weakening upward momentum.
Target: Short-term pullback target.
Stop Loss: Set above $700.
3. Essential Observation Points for Decision Making
Volume Verification: Whether up or down, the direction with significantly increased volume is the more reliable direction.
Keep a close eye on $520: This is the lifeline of the current market; if broken, the short-term rebound ends and the downtrend resumes.
Watch Market Sentiment: As ZEC is a relatively small circulating asset, it is easily influenced by large trades from “whales,” and volatility may suddenly increase, so position size must be controlled. $ZEC
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The current ETH$ETH is in a 15-minute uptrend, driven mainly by technical factors: moving averages are in a bullish arrangement, the price has broken through the key resistance of 2865, and a bullish engulfing pattern has appeared, with momentum clearly biased towards the strong. External sentiment and the macro environment are overall neutral, with limited impact on trend acceleration.
The potential risk lies in low volatility, which may suppress the short-term upward speed.
Strategy suggestions:
【Conservative Long】
Entry: Around 2865 USDC
Stop-loss: 2780 USDC
Target: 2950 USDC
Basis: The price has broken through key resistance and the moving average support is clear; the risk of retracement for long positions is controllable.
【Aggressive Long】
Entry: Around 2880 USDC
Stop-loss: 2830 USDC
Target: 3000 USDC
Basis: The trend is strongly continuous, and after the breakout, it is expected to test psychological round numbers.
If the price falls below the stop-loss level, the strategy becomes invalid, and timely exit is required $ETH .
The potential risk lies in low volatility, which may suppress the short-term upward speed.
Strategy suggestions:
【Conservative Long】
Entry: Around 2865 USDC
Stop-loss: 2780 USDC
Target: 2950 USDC
Basis: The price has broken through key resistance and the moving average support is clear; the risk of retracement for long positions is controllable.
【Aggressive Long】
Entry: Around 2880 USDC
Stop-loss: 2830 USDC
Target: 3000 USDC
Basis: The trend is strongly continuous, and after the breakout, it is expected to test psychological round numbers.
If the price falls below the stop-loss level, the strategy becomes invalid, and timely exit is required $ETH .
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Currently, ETH is in a 【range oscillation】, with the price close to strong support at 2785.01. The moving averages show a bearish arrangement, indicating downward pressure, but a bullish engulfing pattern has appeared recently, suggesting a potential rebound in the short term. External sentiment is neutral, and there are no obvious macro drivers.
In terms of operations, it is recommended to layout in both directions with strict risk control:
Strategy 1: Sell High
Entry: Around 2855 USDC
Stop Loss: 2875 USDC
Target: 2800 USDC
Basis: Close to resistance level, moving averages suppressing, suitable for selling at the upper range.
Strategy 2: Buy Low
Entry: Around 2780 USDC
Stop Loss: 2765 USDC
Target: 2820 USDC
Basis: Strong support combined with bullish patterns, suitable for betting on a rebound at the lower range.
If the price breaks through the stop loss level, the strategy becomes invalid; please pay attention to exit in a timely manner $ETH
In terms of operations, it is recommended to layout in both directions with strict risk control:
Strategy 1: Sell High
Entry: Around 2855 USDC
Stop Loss: 2875 USDC
Target: 2800 USDC
Basis: Close to resistance level, moving averages suppressing, suitable for selling at the upper range.
Strategy 2: Buy Low
Entry: Around 2780 USDC
Stop Loss: 2765 USDC
Target: 2820 USDC
Basis: Strong support combined with bullish patterns, suitable for betting on a rebound at the lower range.
If the price breaks through the stop loss level, the strategy becomes invalid; please pay attention to exit in a timely manner $ETH
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