奔驰董大姐

Today I have things to do outside, I took a glance at my phone, and there is no change, still need to wait. Stick to principles, patiently wait for that high probability winning opportunity.

全部精力都是中国的规训应试教育不好，这样走出来的孩子大都和流水线一样，那些做出伟大成绩的是他们本身更具有优势和特点，教育是次要的，而且这类人属于是极少数天赋异禀的。教育走到另外一个极端也不好，在中国或未来不打算脱离中国，盲目美国快乐教育也是不好的，在中国大环境下也难生存。明白我们教育的一些缺点，吸收一些美国的教育优势，这样可能会更好一些，至少要比全部精力的应试流水线思想教育要好。咱不是给教育部门提意见，这个得需要家长自己用心。平时多了解一些我们的教育，美国的教育，在平时生活中下功夫，以及遇到社会事件，社会问题，学校问题，等各类问题的时候，让孩子自己思考，看看他们是如何思考的，家长要有准备，家长不能用自己的思想强加孩子，要给出多角度的分析，立场要站得住，让孩子看到不一样的视角。比如近期明朝大热问题，如果自己就是一个从众跟风吹捧大明朝，完美无缺，仇恨满人的人，那如何给孩子不一样的视角和认识。起码你要知道大明朝如果真的那么牛逼、完美，为什么灭亡了？老百姓为什么起义反对它？满清就一无是处吗？至少它让我们认识到了文化的重要性，落后愚昧的坏处，不要傲慢自大，等等。严复的天演论看过吗？估计看过的不多。不管如何，不能对孩子仇恨教育。在孩子选择和思想上是否尊重，孩子是否有自主权，家庭谈话是否民主，自由。这些问题不可能靠学校，这些必须家长自己下功夫。下图是网上看到的一个评论，孩子有这样的家长还有什么好的教育可言，孩子成了家长的工具。

Some schools conduct so-called military management on children, suppressive management. For example, collective recitation with books held up to the sky, collective shouting during reading, collective intense English practice, synchronized running in limited space, running while eating, and so on. I have never practiced such educational methods, nor do I find them effective.
During my studying years, when on break, I would engage in self-study, which means using the vacation time when others are indulging in play to read more, utilizing long periods for a protracted battle, accumulating quantitative changes to qualitative changes over time, rather than a short-term reckless decisive battle, not suppressive studying.
In high school, at least 90% of the students in my class did not take naps, doing exercises in class, while I was the only one in the dormitory who regularly took naps. There were several times when I even took leave to go home a week before a mock exam, and after going home, I studied and did exercises myself, which was very peaceful and efficient, and I did well in the exams, as I actually did not adapt well to that kind of high-intensity fatigue studying.
In my second year of high school, the Chinese teacher asked me to recite some article, and I couldn't memorize it. I said I could understand the meaning of the article, why must I memorize it? The teacher made me stand, and I was very happy to stand outside. During the college entrance examination period, I even went to play basketball and got scolded by the homeroom teacher. I have my own understanding and rhythm in doing things, and I would not blindly follow the teacher. In high school, almost all my classmates were obsessed with studying and doing exercises, while I chose not to do many papers because I felt it unnecessary to repeat useless tasks. I spent my extra time playing basketball, taking naps, and reading business investment books and biographies, especially in my second and third years of high school, where I read quite a few business investment books. I should be the only one in my class who thought about how to make money in high school, while others thought I was daydreaming and not focused. When it came to stocks, they would laugh mockingly, using clichés they heard somewhere, saying that stock trading might lead to jumping off buildings, closely associating stock trading with jumping off buildings, even treating it as a terrifying thing. I do not pursue being first or second; being ranked higher is enough.
A couple of influential books I read in high school were by Li Ka-Shing, Bao Yugang, and Buffett. Later on, when I went to college, I felt that my resources, personality, etc., might not be suitable for doing business because I dislike the false pretenses of social interactions. I found Buffett's ideas great and felt that it was very free, so I started trading stocks in college and read a lot of Buffett's work. After graduating, I went to a foreign enterprise, then later quit to trade stocks professionally. In fact, all these choices were driven by an invisible force pushing me forward, which is the pursuit of initiative, the right to choose, and freedom. I have always kept the initiative to choose in my own hands, continuously doing what I recognize in my heart, or what makes me feel comfortable. While studying, I worked very hard, which refers to the persistence of long periods. Now, professional investment is also this kind of character; what I want is long-term gains, not short-term wins.
I believe that such collective crazy behavior and studying do not easily lead to independent thoughts, just like mass production of chickens on an assembly line. I belong to the wild mountain chicken type, preferring to find food a hundred meters away rather than being confined and fed according to someone else's method. My thinking is individualistic, but I have never done rebellious or outrageous things. I have always had independent thoughts from childhood to adulthood, and this kind of thinking is an anomaly in places like Shandong where Confucian thought is heavy, akin to a sorghum rising out of a cornfield; this is inherent. My relatives and early school friends are all in the north and Beijing, yet I chose Guangzhou, then Shanghai, chose a foreign enterprise, and then chose professional stock trading. I never thought about relying on anyone since childhood, so I always follow my heart in making any choices. I personally dislike being suppressed and equally dislike suppressing others. Investment is truly a destined profession for me. However, that kind of collectivist indoctrination is not suitable for investment because the thinking is too rigid and fixed.

网上看到一个这样的题目，一堆人在那里算。如果这不是段子的话，这类题目就是误人子弟，出这类题目的老师都是脑子有坑，前提和条件不严谨的话，只会固定孩子的思维，会让孩子怀疑自己，变的不自信。之前本僧收到过朋友的几个类似消息，就是他们小朋友的题目，在外面花钱上逻辑课的题目，找规律，或逻辑，本僧看了题目同样觉得是误人子弟，有些课外班纯粹是为了难度而难度，这样才显得他们被需要。那些逻辑班出的题目对逻辑思维没啥用处，还会挫败孩子的自信心。如果本僧是家长的话，一定不会上这样的课，当然了本僧不会跟朋友讲这个没用。 学系的目的是为了实践和应用。标准答案是不能有反例，出现一个反例，你的标准答案都是对孩子智商的侮辱。住别墅的孩子大概率不知道楼梯的结构，有些孩子甚至没走过楼梯，而且不同小区，楼房楼梯结构不一，有些小区一楼是二楼的高度，起高了一层。同一个楼房，一楼和三楼以上也不一样，有些三楼以上就复式了，等等。如果孩子们在实践里遇到的不一样，你为什么非要让他们做标准答案，这是愚蠢的题目。家长们只有努力提升自己，才能在孩子遇到问题时给他们不一样的视角。就像这个题目，它只代表了一种楼梯结构，不代表所有，再说了，现实中爷爷上楼梯速度一定是越来越慢的，哪个老师不服气就找几个老爷爷去实践测速。

The market continues to fluctuate, and currently, the overall market remains in a weak state, lacking cohesion and vitality. Overall, it still does not have the conditions for action, continuing to rest and wait, remaining as still as a mountain. Recognize reality, recognize yourself. How much has the profit of the technology sector increased? How much have the core technologies and patents in the technology sector increased? How much has the market value of the technology sector increased? By the end of September, the managers of the A-share market said that the market value proportion of the technology sector exceeded 1/4, with a substantial amount of technology involved. In my view, this is not a good phenomenon; the deliberate pursuit of market value proportion does not represent a significant improvement in core technology, but rather an increase in capital speculation. The wealth of a small group has increased, but how many people's wealth will be plundered? Let's just wait and see; within 2 years, the vast majority of technology stocks will surely collapse frighteningly. I am not bearish on technology; I respect the law of value. I also hope that China's technology sector continues to grow stronger. Absurd capital speculation will certainly have a negative impact on technological development.

大鹏一日同风起，
扶摇直上九万里。
假令风歇时下来，
犹能簸却沧溟水。
世人见我恒殊调，
闻余大言皆冷笑。
宣父犹能畏后生，
丈夫未可轻年少。

千里波涛滚滚来，
雪花飞向钓鱼台。
人山纷赞阵容阔，
铁马从容杀敌回。

普通老百姓要明白一个基本的道理，发财的事儿，天上掉馅饼的事儿，怎么可能就轻易的掉在自己身上。其实很多普通老百姓都懂，但是面对利益诱惑的时候扛不住，不仅仅是理财，股市也是一样的，怎么可能你随便买卖一下就赚钱了。这些年暴雷的理财太多了，P2P，信托，金控理财，甚至部分银行理财，私募理财，外资银行理财，等等。除了四大国有银行的存款风险率是最低的，无限接近于零，其他的存款，理财，投资，都是高风险的。如果自己有投资的能力就投，没有那样的能力就存银行。国债逆回购是和央行挂钩的，和银行存款性质接近，只不过它流动性更好，当天拿利息，隔日就可以买股票。其实这些都是认清现实，认清自己的认识，只不过在面对选择的时候人只能看到利益，看不到风险。

市场继续震荡，目前看市场整体依然是弱势状态，整体缺乏合力，缺乏活力，整体依然不具备行动的条件，继续休息等待，继续不动如山。认清现实，认清自己。美股科技股已经进入到疲弱状态了，AI投入了三年，基本上是没有产出的，连像样的商业应用都没有,但是投入确是巨大的。越往后很多公司会因为AI投入巨大而停止，大部分搞AI的公司会在AI竞赛中淘汰，AI投入三年，没有实质性商业应用出现，但是美股的科技股基本上都涨了几倍，高估值一定是带着高风险的。A股的AI科技完全是跟着美股炒的，和美股的AI完全不是一个级别，A股的Ai科技炒作又比美股还大，一旦崩塌起来是很惨的，这是必然的事情。雪崩什么时候出现不知道，但是AI科技雪崩的时候一定是非常惨的，大部分人的财富会被洗劫。什么是原则？看待这些科技瞎炒就要像看待当年的P2P高收益一样，这是是非选择题，不能做就是不能做。当年很多人去薅P2P羊毛，存一周给非常高的利息，开始的时候都能拿到利息，最后大部分人的钱拿不出来了，贪小便宜吃大亏。不要怪P2P欺骗，要怪就怪自己认知低。当然了，有不少人是为了朋友，亲戚冲业绩而存的，但是这种忙是不该帮的，如果你的认知足够，如果你知道这个钱大概率拿不出来，就算是亲儿子冲业绩也可能不会给他出钱，其实最根本的原因还是动了贪心，当年有认识的人让本僧帮忙冲业绩，本僧就是拒绝的。股市里参与那些瞎炒的不就是动了贪心嘛。你看巴菲特面对1999年几十倍，上百倍美股科技股炒作的时候贪心了嘛？原则就是原则，不能做的坚决不做。当年投P2P的那些人和股市没原则瞎炒的人是一样的，都是被自己的贪心驱动的行为。坚守原则是不容易的，坚守原则也是认知的一部分。

怒发冲冠，凭栏处、潇潇雨歇。抬望眼、仰天长啸，壮怀激烈。三十功名尘与土，八千里路云和月。莫等闲、白了少年头，空悲切。
靖康耻，犹未雪。臣子恨，何时灭。驾长车，踏破贺兰山缺。壮志饥餐胡虏肉，笑谈渴饮匈奴血。待从头、收拾旧山河，朝天阙。

A few days ago, I conducted a survey on income growth, and most people probably didn’t understand it. Today, let’s refine it further. Wage growth is anchored to GDP growth, which aligns over the long term. The definition of a country's development stage is based on per capita GDP.
We are still a developing country, while the United States is a highly developed country and the wealthiest developed nation in the world. Don’t always focus on the media talking about how poorly Americans live; they are indeed wealthy. If their citizens had no money to spend, how would their consumption remain strong? Without consumer support, how could American businesses be so powerful? If American businesses were not strong, the U.S. stock market could not have sustained such a long-term upward trend.
In 2024, the per capita GDP of the United States is $85,800, while in 2024, China’s per capita GDP is $13,400. The U.S. is 6.4 times that of China. The definition of per capita GDP for moderately developed countries is $20,000. Therefore, looking at GDP, we still have a distance to go before reaching developed country status. Additionally, our GDP composition differs from that of the U.S.; in the U.S., consumption plays a major role, whereas our industrial and infrastructure investment proportions are quite large. So, you need to be very clear about these internal factors and not just look at the surface of their stock market compared to ours.
Below is the relationship between income and GDP. If GDP has been growing for several consecutive years, then the income of the vast majority of people must also have grown. However, if GDP has grown, but income hasn’t kept pace with the rhythm of GDP, you should think about where the problem lies; as long as you’re not foolish, this answer doesn’t need to be spoken out loud.
If GDP has grown for several consecutive years, income must grow, and consumption must grow. Overall consumption will inevitably trend towards an upgrade; high-end consumption will definitely increase, dining will expand, and employment will rise. How do people improve their lives? Of course, it’s through income growth. Without an increase in income, how can consumption be improved? As income increases, people will definitely dine out more frequently, and the demand for goods will be a continual pursuit of higher quality. When earning $10,000 a month, one might buy apples at $5 a pound and drive a $100,000 car; when earning $20,000 a month, one might want to try apples at $15 a pound and aspire to drive a $200,000 car. This is inevitable. Now, looking at the consumption situation, high-end cigarettes, liquor, and tea have significantly declined, dining has decreased, high-end shoes, bags, cosmetics, and luxury cars are down, etc. Analyzing the decline of high-end goods can help deduce economic conditions, indicating that people’s incomes should be declining or growing slowly. If income is declining or growing slowly, what about GDP? GDP is indeed growing, and I believe in this data wholeheartedly, but where is the internal growth of GDP? This is the key. If the growth is in industrial investment or infrastructure investment, people cannot feel the temperature of the water. Industrial output increases, thus GDP increases, but this does not mean that goods can be sold. If goods cannot be sold, then people’s income cannot increase. Another factor is infrastructure; investment in hydropower stations increases GDP but does not mean that income will flow into your hands. Once these issues are clear, looking at the stock market will also become clear.
Why is the stock market not rising, but instead falling? If the core of GDP is growing, then people’s income is increasing, and their consumption must be upgrading, not downgrading. The overall stock market must be growing, and stocks like Tesla must be rising. This is the law of value. However, the current market phenomenon is quite the opposite, which raises the question: why are high-end member stores like Costco closing down? Why are discount stores being established? When the market struggles to make money, businessmen will engage in low-price competition and price wars. Some in the capital market will create Ponzi schemes to make money, like the Dutch tulip bubble, and some tech stocks are piled up in value in a similar way; there are always people who believe. People do not care whether tech companies can make money; they only look at whether there’s a dream and if prices can rise, while rational people adhere to the laws of value.
Why have I remained unmoved this year? Because the premise is incorrect; the large economic logic, the laws of value, and market phenomena are contrary to common sense. When the price of a garlic bulb matches that of half a pig, we cannot rule out the possibility of someone making money, but I will not violate the laws of value to buy garlic. Occasionally higher prices can be accepted, but prices that are absurdly high must be avoided. The Moores Threads are like garlic that has matched the price of half a pig. Things whose prices stray far from their value will eventually collapse, and the higher they climb, the harder they fall. When the price of Dutch tulips reached the point of buying a house, people had long forgotten that it was just a flower. When Japanese real estate prices soared to the point of buying all of America, people had long forgotten that it was just meant for living.

2025年还有半个月就结束了，不动如山等待了一年，今年只有国债逆回购的利息，就算是存银行了一年。这一年是很好的修行的机会，当然是针对有原则，明白本僧原则，志同道合的朋友来说的。投资如西天取经，表面去看技术，连白龙马的本事都比唐僧强，可是关键时刻才会明白唐僧才是最强的那个人。年尾了，也意味着新的一年要开始了。平时不学修不总结，不磨砺自己的，没体系原则，原则不清楚的，近期要仔细的想想，要不机会出现时也是稀里糊涂，不知道是不是符合原则。就算未来本僧分享一些原则机会，也是志同道合者懂。凡是在线的老铁就给个回复吧，这一年还留下的都不简单。机会什么时候出现本僧不知道，但总会出现，这算是战前准备，或战前思想动员，不要哪一天突然开打的时候手忙脚乱。

The market continues to fluctuate. Currently, the overall market remains in a weak state, lacking cohesion and vitality. It still does not meet the conditions for action, so it is best to continue resting and waiting, remaining as still as a mountain. Recognize reality and understand yourself. Daily browsing data shows that from last year's peak to now, there has been a 70% decline. This data represents browsing activity, not active participation, so it includes people who only look but do not speak. In other words, from the peak to now, in the one-year waiting period, 70% of people stopped looking. Mastery is easy to obtain, but the path is difficult to comprehend. Why are most people obsessed with mastery? Because the road ahead is full of temptations, and human thinking tends to focus only on the present, neglecting the long term. It’s often advantageous to take immediate profits without regard for the future. Looking long-term requires a sense of purpose, which in turn requires going against human nature and making sacrifices. Sacrificing is too difficult for people. For example, after Liu Bang entered Xi'an City, he could still retreat and seal away treasures for Xiang Yu. This requires immense composure and self-control. Of course, Liu Bang was not completely unfazed; there’s that saying where Fan Kuai asks Liu Bang if he wants the world or to be a rich man. Liu Bang also had his moments of confusion; it’s hard not to be dazed when suddenly becoming wealthy. But when he was confused, he could quickly regain clarity and control himself, and that is a skill. Reading history may seem like just a story, making it hard to sense the difficulty, but real-life examples may be easier to understand. For instance, if your family has been farming for three generations or working as laborers, one day you occupy the home of a wealthy person, where even a single antique is worth over billions, with countless treasures and beautiful women, and you can still calmly let it go. Think about how difficult that would be. This is one of the key reasons why Liu Bang, a petty rogue from humble beginnings, could achieve greatness: his self-control and strategic vision were exceptional. Investing is also an endeavor that goes against human nature; sometimes doing nothing seems passive and inactive, but it can often be the better course of action. When the market is full of bull stocks and indices keep rising, it is very difficult to stick to principles and not be tempted by immediate profits. This kind of inaction appears more passive and foolish, yet this inaction is precisely the best form of action. Understanding this principle makes it easier to comprehend Buffett's inaction regarding tech stocks, and it also clarifies why that carefree individual lost 2 billion and jumped off a building during the bull market in 2015. This principle is also fundamental for long-term stable development.
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The heavy rain falls on the quiet swallow,
The white waves surge to the sky,
Fishing boats outside Qinhuangdao.
A vast ocean is nowhere to be seen,
Where should I go?
The past stretches over a thousand years,
Wei Wu wields his whip,
Eastward to the cliff stone, there are remnants of verses.
The bleak autumn wind is once again,
The world has changed.
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I don't know how many people have lost money in Zhejiang Capital. Many people lack financial knowledge and common sense; investment returns higher than bank deposits will certainly carry high risks, otherwise how would banks attract deposits? Of course, bank deposits also carry risks. There have been many cases of bank failures in the United States, but the risk of bank deposits is extremely low, especially with the four major banks. The four major banks are backed by government credit, state-owned assets are not, and local banks are also not. Those who lose money in investments are often losing due to a lack of understanding, and the same goes for stock trading. It's essential to understand what can and cannot be done. I have shared the story of P2P investments before; those people also lost their principal by being greedy for small immediate profits. Trading stocks without principles is the same.
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Conduct a simple survey: from 2020 to 2025, over 6 years, GDP is increasing, housing prices are decreasing, and car prices are decreasing. During these six years, have your salaries increased? Decreased? Or remained unchanged.
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The things of the Dao need to be understood by oneself. Why do many people fail at investing? Because what they first see is money, is profit. Those who truly excel at investing look at principles; it’s a matter of whether something can be done, whether it can last. If it does not meet the principles, it cannot be done, it cannot last, it cannot compound. Even if the current opportunity has profit, those with integrity will also give it up. For example, in the case of real estate, many companies across the country have envied this industry and tried to make money in real estate, but the negative consequences of real estate may only appear many years later. By the time the negative results emerge, it’s too late to regret. For instance, that carefree XX made a lot of money, accumulating 2 billion over a lifetime, but in 2015, he lost it all and jumped off a building. The negative consequences of lacking principles can leave one unable to rise again, just like Livermore. Look at Cao Dewang; he insists on only doing automotive glass, and he has been very successful. Then look at Buffett; he has invested his whole life, lived long, and earned a lot. Buffett has talked a lot about these principles, but very few are truly willing to understand them with sincerity.
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Investment requires the right mindset, the establishment of principles, and adherence to those principles. Maintaining the right mindset and sticking to principles is not an easy task. For example, Wuliangye has a market value of 430 billion, while Zhongji Xuchuang has a market value of 660 billion. Is Zhongji Xuchuang's profitability really stronger than Wuliangye's? My judgment is that Zhongji Xuchuang's profitability is not as good as Wuliangye's, and Zhongji Xuchuang is likely severely overvalued or in a bubble. The essence of this speculation is merely to leverage the trend to inflate the stock price, with the funds operating behind the scenes just cashing in on the trend. There is a high probability that there will be a collapse in the future, but I do not know exactly when that day will be. I know that this is something I shouldn't engage in, so I refrain from doing it; I do not envy others for making money, nor do I indulge in greed. So is the current Wuliangye worth investing in? My judgment is that I don't know whether it's worth it or not; if I can't figure it out, I won't engage. Therefore, my principle is very simple: do not engage in what cannot be done, and do not engage in what cannot be understood. For things that do not conform to principles, I won't spend a dime. Once I understand this, I will not be troubled by things like technology or Alibaba this year, as they do not conform to my principles; I will not buy anything. Many people know that some things should not be done, but they cannot control themselves, constantly getting involved. The essence of this is greed, as they cannot maintain their principles in the face of temptation or profit, always wanting to make a little money. If one frequently engages in activities that are against principles, it indicates a reluctance to accept and envy the immediate benefits. Buying 100 shares outside of principles is no different from buying 10,000 shares. Think about Buffett’s principle of not buying tech stocks in 1999; he truly wouldn't buy even 100 shares. Only after truly understanding principles can one remain steadfast as a mountain, and then one will realize the power of remaining steadfast. The longer it lasts, the greater the power of principles becomes, but understanding this is not easy, as the temptations constantly entice people. What can be done within principles, whether it is big or small, is a matter of scale; how much one earns is a matter of ability. Engaging in what cannot be done is a matter of nature. Spending money in a supermarket is normal; what quality of goods can be bought is a matter of ability. Stealing in a supermarket is a matter of nature; stealing a tomato is still stealing, just like stealing a bottle of Maotai or a phone. The essence is all stealing; buying and stealing are distinctions of nature. Investment is counterintuitive, and adhering to principles is very challenging; otherwise, there wouldn't be so many people buying and selling every day.
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The market continues to fluctuate. Currently, the overall market is still in a weak state, lacking cohesion and vitality. Overall, it still does not have the conditions for action. Continue to rest and wait, remain as immovable as a mountain. Recognize reality, recognize yourself. Understand what can be done and what cannot be done; this is not an easy task. Knowing what can be done and doing it, and not doing what cannot be done, is even more challenging.
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Wind and rain send spring back, flying snow welcomes spring's arrival.
It is already a hundred zhang of ice on the cliff, yet there are still beautiful flower branches.
Beauty does not compete for spring, only reports the arrival of spring.
When the mountain flowers bloom in splendor, she smiles among the clusters.
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