老K的比特币行情洞察

🚨I am Lao K, a user of naked K technology for 7 years, and I have witnessed how institutions cut leeks for 3 years. Now I will use the on-chain microscope to help you see through the dealer's cards:
⚠Do you remember the Filecoin battle royale of the century? I warned miners of a death spiral 153 days in advance, but the project team dumped the market and 98% of the mining industry was wiped out - the people who scolded me at that time now have two-meter-high grass on their graves!
💎Last November, when everyone was laughing at AI Coin as a bubble, my on-chain scanner captured unusual movements in the a16z wallet, leading subscribers to take advantage of 30 times the market value of AI16Z and other targets - many Twitter KOLs directly copied my analysis framework!

Bitcoin larger-scale structure: a false breakout at the highs and potential paths of evolution
In last week’s market evolution, Bitcoin’s weekly and daily charts showed a complex mix of bullish and bearish signals. Looking back at the week of August 19, after the market produced a strong large bullish candle, it immediately printed a “gravestone” candle with an upper shadow, showing bearish signs at a key resistance level. However, supported by the base formed by the large bullish candle, the overall approach still remained focused on looking for low-long opportunities. Last week, price did not show a deep piercing pullback; instead, it continued to rebound upward and formed a spinning top candle, which exactly confirmed the third potential path of evolution previously anticipated. The current chart shows that buying momentum has begun to weaken slightly, with some early profit-taking positions being rotated out, while the long-side capital that has stepped in afterward is still insufficient to drive a strong, continuous wave of upside. Buying pressure may, after being rapidly depleted, once again pierce the prior highs—甚至 test the weekly high from May this year (above $85,000)—before then entering a deeper correction. The probability of this “first surge to fake a breakout, then entice longs before a pullback” scenario is gradually increasing.

1. Recap: Following the trend is always more important than stubbornly fighting it based on prediction
In the programs around August 29, we issued risk signals based on the order book and ETFs and believed that Bitcoin faced a deep short-term downside risk; if it fell below $77,000, it might not hold. Although we also emphasized the resilience of gold and U.S. stocks at the time, Bitcoin still went on to break into this rapid, explosive surge afterwards—one that exceeded the subjective “high-probability” forecasts we had set. In the face of divergence between market action and bearish expectations, we never avoid admitting our mistakes. In the market, being exactly right across all cycles and stages is something old K simply cannot do. Compared with predicting trends, following the trend and adjusting our defensive strategy promptly when our views conflict with price action is the fundamental way to ensure an account can survive long-term. By reviewing—through real experience—why we got it wrong, tightly controlling position sizing and stop-losses, and preventing large losses is exactly the core trading philosophy our channel has always adhered to.

Gold market outlook: Small non-farm data sparks an oversold rebound; there is bargain-buying value in the dense support zone below
From the gold daily line level, after the price experienced a previous rapid sell-off, it then saw a strong oversold rebound bullish candle accompanied by a noticeably enlarged volume histogram. If the subsequent price action can successfully reclaim the previous day’s large bearish candle, the bullish structure will be further strengthened.
In the prior analysis, although my projection for the depth of gold’s pullback leaned toward a shallow adjustment, the actual price action pushed further down to the extreme area around $4,300. However, the strong oversold rebound that followed fully matches the underlying logic of how price moves. The current price range is not only the dense consolidation zone where earlier positions were actively traded, but it also features a price gap, forming extremely strong technical support and bargain-buying value.

I. Hawkish remarks and a Middle East “black swan” layered together; the “rate hike trade” dominates the market’s threefold selloff
Currently, global capital markets are entirely dominated by the “rate hike trade.” US stocks, gold, and cryptocurrencies (stocks, gold, coins) all experience deep pullbacks simultaneously. From a macro perspective, US 2-year Treasury yields are ticking up slightly, and WTI crude oil prices surge strongly, directly reflecting a sudden escalation in the Middle East situation. The sharp rise in oil prices completely changes the transmission logic for inflation: geopolitical conflict drives up oil costs, intensifying market fears of inflation rising; recovering inflation expectations push forward Treasury yields higher, which both crushes the valuations of high-growth US stocks and severely suppresses interest-free, long-duration assets like gold. The spike in short-term rates directly triggers an acceleration in the fall of both gold and risk assets.

1. Price Action Retrace and Current Order Book Situation: A bullish engulfing candle accompanied by choppy trading—be cautious of repeated swings between bulls and bears.
Reviewing the recent performance of Bitcoin (BTC), on the daily chart it formed a bullish engulfing structure. However, judging by both the trading volume metrics and the actual extent to which the price has expanded upward, the market is still clearly in a consolidation posture. In the short term, the order book has not directly carried out the deep pullback mentioned in the program and weekend outlook; instead, it has shown a complicated pattern of high-level sideways volatility with frequent back-and-forth.
In our earlier analysis, we observed that CVD (cumulative volume delta) showed a clear divergence signal at the bottom. This suggests that large players are continuously placing limit buy orders on the spot market to support the downside; afterward, when the bullish candle rebounded, the trading volume expanded in sync. Based on our keen insight into the market’s repeated, unstable nature, we promptly shared risk-control guidance with members of the VIP community: we took protective profit on the short positions that had already accumulated substantial gains, exiting at 78,600 USD.

Macroeconomic turmoil and prediction validation: the Fed’s hawkish expectations resonating with the Middle East situation
Over the weekend, geopolitical tensions escalated again. Sensitive areas such as Iran’s Hark Island and surrounding battlefronts intensified, driving a renewed increase in global markets’ risk-avoidance sentiment. Under this influence, the Bitcoin market shows a typical “rise first then fall” pattern, and is currently engaged in a high-stakes standoff near a key support level. Meanwhile, gold is seeing a phase pullback, while the U.S. dollar index is choppy and rebounding. Overall, the market landscape is just as we emphasized repeatedly earlier—“small countercurrents within a major trend.”

Plan ahead for next week’s market over the weekend. First, a disclaimer: Lao K has always believed that following the trend matters more than trying to predict it in advance, but some signs have already emerged. It’s necessary to remind everyone to be prepared and take precautions early. The following is Lao K’s personal bias; it may be wrong and get slapped, but it’s based on reasonable grounds. Overall, my view is that next week Bitcoin will most likely see a deep drop, gold may fall mildly, while the Nasdaq could move in the opposite direction and rise in a range-bound upward trend.
Bitcoin weekly: the gravestone pattern appears, the rally has been put on pause
Look at the Bitcoin weekly chart. After last Monday’s single long bullish candle, the price was blocked at a key resistance level—this is exactly the crucial supply zone that trapped many people who went long after breaking out in May this year, and it also formed a gravestone-like candle at the weekly level, carrying some momentum for a pullback. Although the weekly candle won’t close until next Monday morning at 8:00, weakness is already evident here. The rally should have been put on pause, and there’s even a possibility of a deep drop.

No need to chase the trend—crypto guys have been wasting time for nothing. But this time, the crypto circle actually went mainstream, and it was supposedly powered by Sun Ge’s “private life.”
Who would’ve thought that the crypto world would also have a day when it dominates the entertainment hot searches? Just Sun Yuchen, the big brother, singlehandedly scraped the “mysterious tycoon” label out of people’s mouths—once used for coal bosses, real-estate tycoons, and cinema superstars. In the past, it was basically tiger-mouthed snatching food. And it’s probably only because Jing Tian no longer has a big brother protecting her that he can be so brazen. Of course, maybe the crypto people also get a day of “lifting their eyebrows with pride” and “breaking out into the mainstream,” but the fame really smells a bit bad.
There are plenty of wealthy men who play around with female celebrities. But people like Sun Ge—so vulgar and despicable—are not that many. After he had the woman, he wanted the 30 million back too, and the heat even got rubbed onto the story. Sun Ge’s girlfriend’s status also took another step up. Next, he’ll probably be targeting the Deng Wendie segment—and then, to top it off, he’ll try to ruin her. They say that 30 million can most likely be recovered through a lawsuit, which suggests that when the payment was made, he was already careful. Otherwise, getting it back relying only on the memo “betrothal gift” would be very difficult. Once the matter reaches a lawyer, it means Sun Ge has evidence. So back then, this guy buried the trap: in case anything happened, he could get the money back. And if people talk privately with some shamelessly intimate words—some unflattering details, some scandalous inside information—then you’d end up exposing everything and effectively “bringing Jing Tian back.” Even if it’s purely fabricated, the last thing you want is the danger of public opinion—capital has to avoid suspicion, after all.

Macro high-impact data outlook and an all-asset trading strategy
I. Macroeconomic game and realization of profits from the crude oil short position
After oil prices near a declining trendline area achieved a breakout for several days and lured longs in, it naturally led to a strong pullback, which also validated the foresight and correctness of our crude oil short position plan made on August 19.
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From the underlying macro logic, the United States is facing a profound debt crisis: the yield on the 30-year Treasury has surged to 5.3%, the highest level in nearly three decades. This means that, in the long end, the market has effectively completed the rate hikes.

The U.S. Treasury “bear steepening” has sparked a crisis of confidence: U.S. stock valuations and corporate financing are under pressure
The U.S. Treasury market has formed a clear “bear steepening” pattern, with yields hitting new interim highs, effectively signaling the outbreak of the U.S. Treasury crisis. Currently, the yield on the 30-year U.S. Treasury is up to around 5.24%, while the 2-year yield is about 4.2%. The spread between the two is close to 100 basis points. This widening spread reflects the market’s deep concern about long-term inflation. Investors demand a higher option premium, which in turn passively lifts real yields.
The high interest-rate environment has delivered a dual blow to U.S. stocks and risk assets. On the one hand, rising long-end yields push up the discount rate, directly compressing overall valuation for U.S. equities. On the other hand, debt-issuance financing costs have increased significantly—especially for technology and AI high-growth sectors that are highly reliant on corporate bond financing—eroding profit margins. Although the U.S. Treasury is trying to curb the surge in yields by expanding the size of its buyback program to cope with the interest expense burden from as much as $40 trillion in government debt, because the Treasury needs to support buybacks by issuing money, this is essentially further consumption of the dollar credit system. As a result, U.S. equities still face substantial headwinds in terms of valuation repair in the near term.

1. Market Overview: Ethereum first broke through a technical bull market, while Bitcoin broke the long-position framework
The cryptocurrency market has seen a strong rebound, and among them, Ethereum (ETH) has shown particularly standout independent momentum. It printed a large bullish candle and decisively broke above the 200-day moving average (200 MA). In terms of technical structure, it was the first to announce entry into a “technical bull market.” This Ethereum breakout is closely related to its deep correction over the past year—within the past half year, ETH has cumulatively fallen by about 35%, and over the past year, the decline has even reached 60% to 70%. Such extreme oversold conditions have built up powerful rebound energy. However, it is still important to view this rationally: whether Ethereum’s technical bull market can be established still depends heavily on Bitcoin (BTC)’s overall trend. If Bitcoin fails and pulls back in the upper key resistance zone, Ethereum’s earlier gains are very likely to be wiped out.