老K的比特币行情洞察

Brent Crude Falls Amid Structural Market Weakness
Recently, Brent crude prices plunged sharply, but this positive development failed to halt the declines in Bitcoin and U.S. stocks as expected—particularly in the Nasdaq semiconductor sector. When oil prices fall, concerns about near-term inflation should ease, in turn reducing expectations of aggressive rate hikes. Yet U.S. stocks and crypto markets continued to move firmly lower. This suggests that the short-term pullback in oil prices cannot fundamentally resolve the structural problems facing the semiconductor sector and Bitcoin.

At the Eye of the Macro Storm: The Impact of the U.S. Midterm Elections on Markets and Historical Patterns
In the first half of this week, markets are facing a convergence of multiple macroeconomic forces. Election night for the midterm elections officially begins on November 3, U.S. Eastern Time, with the final results expected to emerge gradually between November 5 and 7, China Standard Time. Because the election involves tallying Senate and House seats across all states—and the Senate race in particular is extremely close—the timing of the results is more uncertain than in a typical presidential election. From a macro perspective, it is highly likely that the Democrats will regain control of the House, while control of the Senate remains uncertain. As we mentioned previously in our public community and VIP previews, historical experience—based on a rough review of nearly 20 midterm elections—suggests that markets often experience sharp volatility around elections. If the Fed does not pursue an aggressive rate-hiking policy in the month after the election results are finalized, markets typically see a rebound as “uncertainty is resolved.” However, if the opposition party ultimately regains control of both the House and Senate, creating a split with the president’s party, that will introduce new uncertainty. We’ll also be publishing a special analysis of U.S. equities—particularly the Nasdaq—after the midterm elections. Stay tuned.

I. The truth behind the market rebound: Bulls, don't celebrate blindly
Bitcoin recently closed with a bullish daily candle and formed a “Morning Star” candlestick pattern. The price then continued to rise. In light of this move, some market participants may be wondering: Has the previously forecast downtrend been invalidated? Has the bearish thesis failed?
The answer is clear: the bearish thesis remains unchanged. Looking back at the analysis on October 27, the market had two possible paths:
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Direct drop: After buying pressure is exhausted within the current range, the price continues downward.

Review and Verification: Accurately Forecasting Market Moves
Our market outlook from previous episodes has now been validated point by point. In our forecast last Saturday, we clearly warned that “a major rebound is just around the corner.” Then, on Monday, we accurately mapped out the path: “a rebound first, followed by a sharp plunge.” All of the targets and moves we identified have now played out.
However, we must emphasize that the current plunge is only the beginning of the macroeconomic and technical correction. On the daily chart, Bitcoin (BTC) has formed a huge bearish candle on exceptionally heavy volume, completely erasing the gains from the previous two days of rebound. This means bearish pressure is accelerating, while bullish resistance is extremely weak.