老K的比特币行情洞察
推特：@V_Blockchain，油管：老K的比特币行情洞察。
前机构衍生品交易员.8年裸K实战.1万小时链上捕手
6年拆解300项目基本面
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· 21年Filecoin崩盘,提前5个月预警.
· 24年AI赛道爆发
日更：1比特及山寨顶底 2机构大额订单流方向解密3变盘警报
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[Critical truth warning] A former institutional vulture trader's crypto survival rules
🚨I am Lao K, a user of naked K technology for 7 years, and I have witnessed how institutions cut leeks for 3 years. Now I will use the on-chain microscope to help you see through the dealer's cards:
⚠Do you remember the Filecoin battle royale of the century? I warned miners of a death spiral 153 days in advance, but the project team dumped the market and 98% of the mining industry was wiped out - the people who scolded me at that time now have two-meter-high grass on their graves!
💎Last November, when everyone was laughing at AI Coin as a bubble, my on-chain scanner captured unusual movements in the a16z wallet, leading subscribers to take advantage of 30 times the market value of AI16Z and other targets - many Twitter KOLs directly copied my analysis framework!
⚠Do you remember the Filecoin battle royale of the century? I warned miners of a death spiral 153 days in advance, but the project team dumped the market and 98% of the mining industry was wiped out - the people who scolded me at that time now have two-meter-high grass on their graves!
💎Last November, when everyone was laughing at AI Coin as a bubble, my on-chain scanner captured unusual movements in the a16z wallet, leading subscribers to take advantage of 30 times the market value of AI16Z and other targets - many Twitter KOLs directly copied my analysis framework!
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Will it be a sideways decline instead of a drop? No! A pullback is highly likely! A precise prediction of a small pullback; tonight's PCE will lead to a larger drop. Is this a buying opportunity?
Thoughts in the market fluctuations: Will Bitcoin experience a sideways decline?
The recent market has been in a state of repeated fluctuations, and many are concerned whether the trend will be a 'sideways decline'. From the market performance, although Bitcoin has experienced a spike-like pullback in the short term, it quickly found support in the Vegas channel and rebounded. This means that while the market has seen a pullback, there has not been a deep decline structure, and overall it still belongs to a washout-like fluctuation.
Ethereum dropped to a low of 3060 USD yesterday, also in line with the expected pullback rhythm. If previous analyses suggested positioning near the structural support of 3100, most investors should have successfully boarded without chasing the price at high levels. From the current overall trend, the short-term fluctuations still belong to a healthy adjustment.
The recent market has been in a state of repeated fluctuations, and many are concerned whether the trend will be a 'sideways decline'. From the market performance, although Bitcoin has experienced a spike-like pullback in the short term, it quickly found support in the Vegas channel and rebounded. This means that while the market has seen a pullback, there has not been a deep decline structure, and overall it still belongs to a washout-like fluctuation.
Ethereum dropped to a low of 3060 USD yesterday, also in line with the expected pullback rhythm. If previous analyses suggested positioning near the structural support of 3100, most investors should have successfully boarded without chasing the price at high levels. From the current overall trend, the short-term fluctuations still belong to a healthy adjustment.
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Using horizontal to replace decline? No! A pullback is a high probability event! Accurately predicting a small pullback, tonight's PCE will lead to a larger decline. Is this an opportunity to buy? December 5th, recommended to watch at 1.5x speed.
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Bullish continuation, but don't chase long! A pullback could happen at any time! Where to enter long? Ethereum is stronger than Bitcoin! Hype may crash.
Bitcoin's strength continues, but it's not advisable to chase long positions in the short term
Recently, Bitcoin continues to maintain a bullish pattern, but the current level is not suitable for blindly chasing long positions. The market shows obvious fluctuations, and Bitcoin is still in a critical neckline area, having neither broken upward nor shown a valid pullback. Therefore, the short-term direction is extremely tangled. Will it continue to form a daily-level W bottom, extending upwards to a long-term target of $107,000 to $113,000, or will it fall back after being blocked at the neckline? We need to wait for more signals to confirm.
Impact of macro data and market expectations
Yesterday's market showed signs of a pullback, but the U.S. employment index was significantly below expectations, reinforcing the market's expectation of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December, which increased the probability of a rate cut to 89%, stimulating Bitcoin's short-term stabilization.
Recently, Bitcoin continues to maintain a bullish pattern, but the current level is not suitable for blindly chasing long positions. The market shows obvious fluctuations, and Bitcoin is still in a critical neckline area, having neither broken upward nor shown a valid pullback. Therefore, the short-term direction is extremely tangled. Will it continue to form a daily-level W bottom, extending upwards to a long-term target of $107,000 to $113,000, or will it fall back after being blocked at the neckline? We need to wait for more signals to confirm.
Impact of macro data and market expectations
Yesterday's market showed signs of a pullback, but the U.S. employment index was significantly below expectations, reinforcing the market's expectation of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December, which increased the probability of a rate cut to 89%, stimulating Bitcoin's short-term stabilization.
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Bullish continuation, but don't chase long positions! A pullback may happen at any time! Where to enter long? Ethereum is stronger than Bitcoin! Hype may crash. December 4th, it is recommended to watch at 1.5x speed. #ETH巨鲸增持
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Currently, BTC belongs to a typical "momentum exhaustion after rebounding to key resistance" structure. This round of rebound has risen all the way from 80600, but encountered significant resistance in the dense trading area around 92500–93500, with the price peaking and then starting to fall back. From the indicators, the 1-hour MACD momentum has shown high-level attenuation, the histogram has shortened and is approaching a death cross, indicating insufficient short-term buying strength.
On-chain and market data are similarly weak. The spot CVD continues to decline, indicating a lack of real spot buying during the rebound; the contract CVD has not synchronized to new highs, indicating that the main force has not actively pushed for a breakthrough. At the same time, open interest (OI) has risen during the rebound process, representing that many chasing bulls have built positions at high levels, making the structure fragile. Once the price falls back, it is easy to trigger a round of passive liquidation or forced clearing of long positions. Depth data shows that there are dense sell orders above and weak support below, making it easier for the market to be pushed back at resistance.
Overall, BTC is currently in a weak range at the end of the rebound. If it cannot effectively break through the 93500–96500 area, it is more likely to fall back to around 88500 or 84000 to seek support in the short term. Only with a strengthening of the spot CVD and a volume breakout above resistance can the rebound possibly continue. Overall, remain cautious, buy on dips, or pursue longs on breakthroughs.
On-chain and market data are similarly weak. The spot CVD continues to decline, indicating a lack of real spot buying during the rebound; the contract CVD has not synchronized to new highs, indicating that the main force has not actively pushed for a breakthrough. At the same time, open interest (OI) has risen during the rebound process, representing that many chasing bulls have built positions at high levels, making the structure fragile. Once the price falls back, it is easy to trigger a round of passive liquidation or forced clearing of long positions. Depth data shows that there are dense sell orders above and weak support below, making it easier for the market to be pushed back at resistance.
Overall, BTC is currently in a weak range at the end of the rebound. If it cannot effectively break through the 93500–96500 area, it is more likely to fall back to around 88500 or 84000 to seek support in the short term. Only with a strengthening of the spot CVD and a volume breakout above resistance can the rebound possibly continue. Overall, remain cautious, buy on dips, or pursue longs on breakthroughs.
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Stop tapering! Is Bitcoin reversing? Hold on! The new chairman of the Federal Reserve is elected, but going long may be manipulated by the big players! Where can we consider going long? Bitcoin market analysis on the morning of December 3rd, recommended to watch at 1.5x speed. #美联储重启降息步伐
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Bitcoin Weak Rebound, Continuing Downward! Bank of Japan Raises Interest Rates, Global Liquidity Tightens! Is there still a Christmas rally? Is there an opportunity for a rebound? Where will the rebound go?
Market Volatility and Bitcoin Trend Analysis: A Comprehensive Breakdown of Macro and Technical Perspectives by Lao K
1. Daily level fully weakens: Bitcoin's downward trend is confirmed
From the daily Bitcoin chart, the large bearish candle from yesterday almost completely engulfs all the gains from the past week, which is an extremely clear bearish signal. The bullish MACD energy bar has started to clearly shrink, and the previously golden cross fast and slow lines are also showing signs of convergence, with the technical structure turning unfavorable.
The price not only failed to approach the previously expected test of the $98,000 downward trend line, but continued to weaken after breaking key support. Overall, the daily level has shown an absolute bearish pattern, and the larger trend continues in the previous descending channel.
1. Daily level fully weakens: Bitcoin's downward trend is confirmed
From the daily Bitcoin chart, the large bearish candle from yesterday almost completely engulfs all the gains from the past week, which is an extremely clear bearish signal. The bullish MACD energy bar has started to clearly shrink, and the previously golden cross fast and slow lines are also showing signs of convergence, with the technical structure turning unfavorable.
The price not only failed to approach the previously expected test of the $98,000 downward trend line, but continued to weaken after breaking key support. Overall, the daily level has shown an absolute bearish pattern, and the larger trend continues in the previous descending channel.
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Bitcoin is currently maintaining a rebound structure in the 15-minute cycle. The previously formed head and shoulders bottom has broken through the neckline (approximately 86600–86800) and has successfully stabilized, belonging to the "consolidation after a breakout" phase, not indicating weakness. Although the MACD momentum has declined, it has not crossed bearishly, and the volume structure also shows normal oscillation consolidation. The short-term rebound target first looks towards 87000–87300; if the volume increases and attacks, there is a chance to further reach the strong resistance area in the chart at 87800–88500.
Overall, as long as the price does not fall below 86500, the rebound trend will continue; if it falls below, it will enter a weak correction and may retest the 86000–85800 area.
Overall, as long as the price does not fall below 86500, the rebound trend will continue; if it falls below, it will enter a weak correction and may retest the 86000–85800 area.
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After a weak rebound in Bitcoin, it continues to decline! The Bank of Japan raises interest rates, and global liquidity tightens! Is there still a Christmas market? Is there a chance for a rebound? Where will it rebound to? Bitcoin market | Ethereum market December 2, suggested to watch at 1.5x speed #加密市场回调
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Is BTC Stuck? Beware of Bear Traps. Will Black Friday See a Plunge? The Liquidity Above Looks Tempting; Will the Bulls Not Come?
1. Post-Thanksgiving Market: Weak Rise but Structure Remains Strong
From the daily chart of Bitcoin, due to yesterday being the Thanksgiving holiday in the United States, the overall trading volume was significantly insufficient, and the K-line only formed a small bullish candle, giving the market a subjective feeling of "seeming unable to rise." However, the daily line still firmly closed above $90,000, which is a clear bullish signal, indicating that the mid-term upward structure has not been broken.
However, at the same time, the market also shows certain resistance, especially as the short-term direction appears somewhat confused. On the hourly level, although Bitcoin has completed an upward move after the breakout, it has not formed a rapid continuation in the same direction, instead showing signs of some fluctuations and pullbacks, causing many traders to worry that the market may weaken.
From the daily chart of Bitcoin, due to yesterday being the Thanksgiving holiday in the United States, the overall trading volume was significantly insufficient, and the K-line only formed a small bullish candle, giving the market a subjective feeling of "seeming unable to rise." However, the daily line still firmly closed above $90,000, which is a clear bullish signal, indicating that the mid-term upward structure has not been broken.
However, at the same time, the market also shows certain resistance, especially as the short-term direction appears somewhat confused. On the hourly level, although Bitcoin has completed an upward move after the breakout, it has not formed a rapid continuation in the same direction, instead showing signs of some fluctuations and pullbacks, causing many traders to worry that the market may weaken.
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BTC is stagnant? Beware of short-selling traps. Will Black Friday see a crash? The liquidity above is tempting, but where are the bulls? Bitcoin market analysis on November 28, recommended to watch at 1.5x speed.
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Accurate prediction of the rebound! Challenge $98,000? 80% chance of interest rate cuts in December, but within the good news there is bad news, the interest rate dot plot for 2026 may be the end point of the rebound!
1. Establishing a phase bottom: Successful prediction of the rebound market
In the previous analysis, I clearly pointed out that Bitcoin has reached a phase bottom, and after a pullback, bold long positions can be established, predicting that a wave of upward movement will occur before Christmas. The facts have proven that this judgment was once again accurate: Bitcoin not only rebounded but also violently surged, challenging $89,000. Friends who bought in the $86,800–$86,300 range have now made considerable profits.
This period of horizontal fluctuation could easily lead the market to misjudge as 'continuing to decline', but I have already reminded in the VIP group: this looks more like a bear trap, with weak downward momentum, making it an excellent buying opportunity.
In the previous analysis, I clearly pointed out that Bitcoin has reached a phase bottom, and after a pullback, bold long positions can be established, predicting that a wave of upward movement will occur before Christmas. The facts have proven that this judgment was once again accurate: Bitcoin not only rebounded but also violently surged, challenging $89,000. Friends who bought in the $86,800–$86,300 range have now made considerable profits.
This period of horizontal fluctuation could easily lead the market to misjudge as 'continuing to decline', but I have already reminded in the VIP group: this looks more like a bear trap, with weak downward momentum, making it an excellent buying opportunity.
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Accurate prediction of a rebound! Challenge 98,000? Probability of interest rate cut in December is 80%, but there are both positive and negative factors. The interest rate dot plot for 2026 may be the endpoint of the rebound! Ethereum market #Bitcoin #Ethereum #eth #ltc On the morning of November 27, it is recommended to watch at 1.5x speed. #加密市场反弹
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Bitcoin and Ethereum are pulling back for a buy! Waiting for a Christmas market rebound! The probability of interest rate cuts has surged to 80%, with 7 officials supporting the cut. Will there be any changes? $SUI I #BitcoinMarket #Ethereum #Bitcoin November 25, recommended to watch at 1.5x speed.
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Bitcoin is unlikely to crash again in the short term! A bottom has formed, waiting to test the bottom again? Long-term, mid-term, and short-term analysis of cryptocurrencies, where are the bottom points for Ethereum? November 24, it is recommended to watch at 1.5x speed.
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NVIDIA has completed the first step of the script! How will the BTC bottom rebound script unfold next? Will tonight's employment data trigger the Fed's decision to cut interest rates? When will BlackRock stop selling $1.7 billion? How to solve the lack of market liquidity? On November 20, it is recommended to watch at 1.5x speed. #加密市场回调
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BTC is likely to be at a temporary bottom! Will there be a small altcoin season? The probability of interest rate cuts has changed; a second test is highly likely, but a rebound may occur at any time.
1. Bitcoin may be at a temporary bottom: Key support range is revealed
From the daily structure of Bitcoin, the recent sharp drop has reached the key range of $88,000–$89,000, which is an important stop-loss swap zone from the past and also a historical gap position. As the price has recovered above $92,000, it indicates that an oversold rebound has formed a preliminary structure. The "left-side buying zone" mentioned earlier in the video has also been validated by the market, with short-term funds already in profit. Therefore, the key question now is: Should we continue to add positions, and how far will the rebound go?
From the daily structure of Bitcoin, the recent sharp drop has reached the key range of $88,000–$89,000, which is an important stop-loss swap zone from the past and also a historical gap position. As the price has recovered above $92,000, it indicates that an oversold rebound has formed a preliminary structure. The "left-side buying zone" mentioned earlier in the video has also been validated by the market, with short-term funds already in profit. Therefore, the key question now is: Should we continue to add positions, and how far will the rebound go?
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BTC is likely to bottom out at this stage! Will there be a small altcoin season? The probability of interest rate cuts has changed, and a second exploration is highly probable, but a rebound could happen at any moment. #Altcoin Watch at 1.5x speed on the morning of November 19. #山寨币市场回暖
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BTC fills the gap, should we buy the dip? How high can we see? Is it bottomless? Is Ethereum in peril? Opportunity arising from crisis?
The key decision after the Bitcoin gap fill: Buy the dip or continue to wait?
In the recent market fluctuations, Bitcoin completed a gap fill of $91,000—$92,000, prompting many investors to reconsider a core question: Can we buy the dip right now? If a rebound occurs, how high might it rise? The premise for all these judgments is the accurate understanding of the macro factors and technical structures currently affecting Bitcoin's trend.
1. Macro: The Federal Reserve's shift to a hawkish stance increases pressure on Bitcoin.
Currently, the biggest variable determining Bitcoin's major trend remains the changes in the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut expectations. Just yesterday, the probability of a rate cut further dropped from 43%, as the Federal Reserve's vice chairman delivered a hawkish speech, causing market expectations for future easing to plummet.
In the recent market fluctuations, Bitcoin completed a gap fill of $91,000—$92,000, prompting many investors to reconsider a core question: Can we buy the dip right now? If a rebound occurs, how high might it rise? The premise for all these judgments is the accurate understanding of the macro factors and technical structures currently affecting Bitcoin's trend.
1. Macro: The Federal Reserve's shift to a hawkish stance increases pressure on Bitcoin.
Currently, the biggest variable determining Bitcoin's major trend remains the changes in the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut expectations. Just yesterday, the probability of a rate cut further dropped from 43%, as the Federal Reserve's vice chairman delivered a hawkish speech, causing market expectations for future easing to plummet.
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