刘多余

Wall Street has gained actual control over Bitcoin, and miners no longer have the ability to influence the market.
This is something I have been emphasizing over the past year, and it is also the reason why I have asserted that Bitcoin will enter a small peak before the halving. Brother Zhao’s visit to the United States means that the ETF application must be approved, although this sounds like It's like a conspiracy that has been laid out for a long time, but it is a conspiracy. When people were still talking about how they would not take over Bitcoin at a high price, Wall Street already had actual control over Bitcoin. This is the reality. They can influence the market, not only the crypto market, but they can influence the world's rich businessmen and celebrities, and even wars. In previous articles, I have emphasized many times that the market value of Bitcoin is as simple as buying a stuffed toy for them to play with. I also firmly believe that they are not targeting the three walnuts and two dates in our hands and spending several years planning to use their century-old reputation to endorse Bitcoin. They must be targeting wealthy businessmen and celebrities. Is it really impossible to apply for approval five years ago? Obviously it can be applied for approval, but at that time, miners' income could influence the market, and applying for approval before this halving means that miners have lost their ability to influence the market. You may not believe it, but the fact is that Wall Street is about to control a financial world that exists with the Internet, and it is still a year-round engine. As long as they use some tricks to let giants such as Google, Apple, Microsoft, and Buffett buy and store them, technology companies and wealthy people around the world will follow suit. This is the trend. Do you think this is enough? After they promote Bitcoin to the altar, they will also promote the tokenization of real assets. This is a trillion-dollar market. #内容挖坑 #BTC $BTC $BNB $SOL

Looking back at myself eight months ago, interest rate cuts, QE, and non-farm payrolls are nothing compared to the adjustments in the industrial structure. I mentioned from the beginning that tariffs are only for the closure of industries and their return, as the U.S. embarks on a round of major infrastructure projects.

Eight months later, all commodities are skyrocketing. I'm sorry to inform everyone that all currencies have been in a severe depreciation trend compared to commodities over the past six months.

To those brothers who criticized me at that time, are you really okay? Sometimes, there's no need to care about many data points; understanding the essence of the world is far more powerful than learning data...

I only like to talk to smart people, which has nothing to do with wealth or power, at least we can have a little common language.

$BTC $ETH #btc #eth

Are the wealthy domestic men and women who shorted silver with over 10,000 people wiped out? These older brothers and sisters probably experience the outside world very little through Pinduoduo?

BitMine is not actually gambling; rather, certain domestic institutions have shorted commodities over the past six months and have recently been blown up. Regardless of whether interest rate cuts or QE occurred, global currencies and commodity exchange rates have been depreciating, and the same type of people will appear in the crypto world soon.

The industrial structure has changed, and even if the monetary environment remains unchanged, commodities must rise. Regardless of whether QE has been entered, the currency is in a state of passive depreciation.

Fund managers in the domestic market who were recently blown up by commodities should have posted this chart I made eight months ago on their desks; they probably used Pinduoduo too much and couldn’t feel the prices of raw materials 🫡

$BTC $ETH $LDO #btc #eth #ldo

This period is a cycle of global industrial chain restructuring and the AI industrial revolution, rather than a yen interest rate cycle. Whether Japan raises interest rates can only affect itself and cannot impact the world.

Until tariffs squeeze the return of American industries to complete the transformation by artificial intelligence, it will take at least three to five years and at most ten years for global currencies to enter a downward channel.

$BTC $ETH $LDO #btc #eth #ldo

Artificial intelligence is rapidly entering the era of general artificial intelligence. In this era, the core metric by which every AI company measures its own value is no longer traditional revenue or user scale, but rather how many people's jobs it can replace. Therefore, we see a large number of tech companies actively reducing their workforce, completely replacing repetitive or low-value positions with AI. Meanwhile, new unicorn companies are emerging one after another, with valuations often exceeding $10 billion, but their employee count is less than a hundred. Capital and algorithms have replaced a significant amount of human labor, with a few highly skilled talents dominating massive value creation.

Just like everyone looks forward to Tesla producing steering wheel-less, self-driving cars, very few have truly considered which industries' workers will be the first to face the risk of being replaced when self-driving cars become widespread. Taxi drivers, logistics couriers, driving instructors, and even certain positions in insurance, maintenance, and traffic management may face disruptive impacts. And this is just an example from the automotive industry. As more and more general artificial intelligence products enter society, the worldview, value systems, and basic rules of work and wealth that we rely on to understand the world may be completely shattered.

The problem is that society as a whole is not fully prepared, yet everyone has already begun to get excited. However, education, law, social security, and industrial planning are far from keeping pace with the speed of technological development. Most people are still using old thinking to face the new world, while the new world is already arriving rapidly.

I choose blockchain because I believe it can become the foundation of the economy in the AI era. As for how to build skyscrapers on top of it, everyone in the financial sector is constantly exploring, experimenting, and trying. This is the consensus of the entire era and also the greatest uncertainty, as everyone has entered an unknown territory, and of course, everyone has the opportunity to write a new economic operating model for a whole new era.

$BTC $ETH $LDO #ldo #eth #btc

My friends ask me how I view this wave of "stablecoin" regulation? The answer has always been quite simple; what is meant to come will eventually come.

From the moment we first encountered USDT, we should have known it would inevitably enter the core of monetary competition. For those who have been following me for a long time, this should come as no surprise. I wrote an entire analysis on the "stablecoin wars" a long time ago; stablecoins are not a technical issue, but a struggle between national monetary systems. The outcome of this war will be the obsolescence of most countries' currencies by the times.

Many people are accustomed to imagining the current international relations as a new competition among the three powers of China, the U.S., and Europe or China, the U.S., and Russia. However, in my view, the current world resembles the era of the "Hundred Schools of Thought," where every country claims to represent peace, order, and civilization, yet all are trying to expand their monetary boundaries, payment boundaries, capital boundaries, and even territorial boundaries as much as possible. Stablecoins are the sharpest, most covert, and hardest-to-block tools in this boundary expansion, but the general consensus is that if you cannot win, you should join early.

At the same time, artificial intelligence is pushing all of human civilization into unprecedented unknown territories. Order will be rewritten, industries will be reshaped, and social classes will be re-differentiated. No one can accurately predict the future, but what can be stated with certainty is that a large number of jobs will disappear, a large number of people will be pushed out of the production system, and traditional socio-economics will be forced to rewrite under the real and ongoing pressure of unemployment.

It can be responsibly said that everyone is facing an unknown world. We have previously discussed RWA, the U.S. bringing all industries back for AI transformation, wealth, currency, etc., but there is one question that no one in the world can answer today: in what form will the future social structure present itself? Just like Tesla wanting to produce cars without a steering wheel, what kind of world is that, and how should the meaning of wealth be defined?

$BTC $ETH $LDO #btc #eth #ldo

Cryptocurrency has entered a brand new structural era. In the coming years, we will see the comprehensive performance of the "crypto version of the golden 50s" with institutionalization, assetization, and globalization advancing simultaneously, as the market shifts from speculative logic to asset revaluation logic.

For most people, in this context, there is no need to search the world for so-called opportunities. Many high-quality protocols in the market are still at the bottom range, and the fundamentals are steadily strengthening. The real structural chips are right in this currently overlooked time.

For many, there is regret for not holding Bitcoin or Ethereum ten years ago, and ten years from now, there will also be regret for not holding some quality protocol assets today. Do not let your life be left with regrets; this opportunity is fleeting, just like the A-shares will never return to 2800～

$BTC $ETH $LDO #btc #eth #ldo

Simply put, the commercial value of USDT is several times higher than the total amount of stablecoins it has issued, and there is no need to FUD Tether. Moreover, every time there are market rumors of Tether facing a crisis, it marks the bottom of the cycle, without exception over the years.

With the current scale of USDT, Tether is like an on-chain central bank with the power to issue currency. In terms of commercial value, it should be the largest unicorn project in the cryptocurrency space.

$BTC $USDT $ETH #btc #usdt #eth

Tether's continuous buying of gold and Bitcoin is not surprising. From a business logic perspective, the essence of USDT is the world's largest alternative to the US dollar, with a scale approaching that of a medium-sized nation's currency base. At this scale, Tether must gradually transition from a purely short-term debt and bank deposit structure to a sovereign-level asset portfolio with long-term risk resistance.

Gold and Bitcoin are the easiest non-sovereign assets to achieve global consensus. In an era of frequent cross-border sanctions and geopolitical conflicts, they are safer than holding short-term debts within the US banking system, as the latter may face political risks such as freezing and regulatory pressure.

Secondly, from the perspective of returns and structural safety, Tether's profit model has evolved from low-risk interest earning to asset management through allocation. As the market value of USDT continues to grow, Tether increasingly needs a base that can hedge against currency risks, market risks, and regulatory risks, which gold and Bitcoin precisely satisfy as multi-layered risk buffers.

Moreover, Tether's path is actually mimicking the logic of reserve assets at the central bank level. Currently, aside from the US dollar, the monetary logic is US dollar bonds + gold as the base. Tether's asset reserve logic comprises short-term debts + gold + Bitcoin. Tether is constructing a multinational, de-regulated, anti-freeze stablecoin central bank balance sheet.

The scale of USDT has already made Tether a "chain-based stablecoin central bank," so Tether is not just a simple company. If you still can't understand, just pretend I didn't say anything.

$BTC $ETH $LDO #btc #eth #ldo

Some friends say that scrolling through Douyin is more nerve-wracking than scrolling through Twitter.

Just yesterday, we were talking about how, although diligent and efficient, it is easier to fall into another extreme.

Historically, the power of the Han cultural group to rebound from rock bottom is far greater than any external force.

The situation unfolded as follows: a certain department announced the sealing of records related to drug use and prostitution, leading to widespread dissatisfaction and resistance from many official media and netizens, with some official media even canceling their accounts to protest...

In fact, it's not a big deal, but why could it provoke such a huge reaction?

$BTC $ETH #btc #eth

Previously, I wrote about a new round of currency wars starting with stablecoin legislation, and the renminbi does not need to challenge the US dollar; it only needs to make the world rely on Chinese manufacturing. Domestically, through the production system, we control the prices of global goods; prices are order, prices are finance, prices are currency.

This time, the central bank defined stablecoins as "illegal currency," which is not very appropriate. Instead of avoiding the impacts brought by stablecoins, it would be better to establish a stablecoin settlement system sooner.

If stablecoins continue to be regarded as entirely "illegal," we will face three enormous financial risks in the future.

1. Loss of RMB usage scenarios in the Web3 world

2. Loss of the on-chain cross-border settlement market, which will be monopolized by on-chain US dollars.

3. Loss of the currency presence in global digital trade

Rather than blocking stablecoins, it would be better to lead the underlying settlement system for stablecoins. We should not live in the gold standard era; many countries still interpret currency sovereignty from a "gold standard mentality," believing that only currency issued by central banks, which is controllable in the physical world, is legitimate. However, the true force that has driven the explosive growth of the modern economy is not gold, but the transition of the currency system from physical anchoring to a systemic credit system.

Currency itself is a concrete manifestation of people's confidence in the future. Many believe that US debt will explode, but even if US debt expands by another factor of two, it will merely mean that the world shares the debt with it. For governments, it is essential to learn to manage debt reasonably; otherwise, the so-called GDP value will continually be diluted by the dominant currency, the US dollar.

$BTC $ETH $LDO #btc #eth #ldo

Recently, in the qualification of certain cases, some exchanges have been classified as "offshore network DU platforms." This joint meeting has also strictly scrutinized the flow of funds related to stablecoins, even directly considering stablecoins as illegal assets.

1. Large amounts of funds should be transferred to cold wallets as much as possible to reduce concentration and avoid being mistakenly harmed.

2. Reduce capital inflow and outflow operations, especially the entry and exit of stablecoins, as risk control is tightening unprecedentedly.

3. Do not publicly announce leverage operations, as in certain cases, leveraged trading has been directly equated with "offshore online gambling behavior."

4. Users with larger capital volumes need to proactively avoid risks to ensure that assets are in a position they can absolutely control.

The biggest risk in the current environment is not the market but a fundamental change in policies and qualifications. Recently, this trend has become very obvious, and it is advisable to transfer assets to cold wallets, especially after last month's events, as certain regulatory bodies have directly upgraded their stance on leverage to "net DU."

$BTC $ETH $LDO #btc #eth #ldo

Since the incident last month, I have heard that someone sent that matter for evaluation to a certain department, and it has now arrived. Recently, there has been less inflow and outflow of funds, and it's best to avoid large transactions; testing with one or two hundred RMB is sufficient.

Alright, holding stablecoins is now illegal, with a focus on cracking down on stablecoins~

$BTC $ETH #btc #eth

In fact, this theory reduces the current administrative planning of provinces, cities, counties, towns, townships, and villages to just provinces, cities, and towns, eliminating the administrative planning of counties, townships, and villages. The past multi-level administrative system created a structural problem: the more levels there are, the greater the consumption of financial resources during the gradual transfer process. No matter how much poverty alleviation funding is invested, it is difficult to reach grassroots efficiently, leading to the phenomenon where the more money is spent, the less sufficient it becomes, making it hard to eradicate the situation where grassroots become poorer despite assistance.

By compressing the administrative levels to just provinces, cities, and towns, it can significantly reduce intermediaries, lower fund losses, and improve the efficiency of financial resource usage, allowing funds to enter the grassroots public service system more directly and transparently.

This theory does not have the administrative levels of counties, townships, or villages, so there are no rural areas with no people, because this theory does not include rural areas, and the plains are all densely populated and fertile, making them more suitable for forming key towns.

$BTC $ETH #btc #eth

The United States has truly taken the 'Afghan battlefield' back home this time. First, let me introduce this suspect: Lakanwal served in Afghanistan and was a member of the special forces in the CIA-supported Zero Units, serving in Kandahar Province. He entered the United States through Biden's 'Welcome Allies Action,' using a .357 Magnum handgun during the attack, which resulted in the deaths of two National Guard members. In addition to being Afghan nationals received by the Democratic Party, the focus here is that there are also 190,000 Afghans who entered the United States through this program!

Following this incident, the Trump administration urgently locked down the airspace over Washington, D.C., and all flights to Washington were ordered to turn back. Trump launched another round of vitriol against Biden, and the Trump administration quickly responded by announcing a comprehensive review of the 190,000 Afghan immigrants arriving in the U.S. through this program.

For the first time in 24 years (since the 9/11 incident in 2001), Middle Eastern special forces have again engaged on U.S. soil in Washington, D.C., but unlike the last time, this is a proactive recruitment effort.

Upon learning of the full details of the incident, Trump immediately ordered the deployment of 500 National Guard members to Washington to enhance security and protection. However, not long ago, on November 2025, Federal Judge Jia Cobb ruled that the Trump administration's large-scale deployment of the National Guard to the streets of D.C. for the purpose of crime prevention and restoring order violated federal law and exceeded presidential authority.

Previously, conspiracy theories suggested that the two parties were hunting down the guards to send a warning to Trump. This now seems more plausible; the Democratic Party has long controlled the CIA to train Afghan operatives in the Middle East. The system cultivated by the CIA excels at creating controllable chaos, targeted pressure, soft threats, and gray area conflicts. Notably, it was the Democrats who brought them back to American soil, coinciding with the signing of the Epstein case, leading to this typical politically threatening attack.

From an informational structure perspective, this incident is not merely a security accident; it resembles the type of signals that commonly reflect deep power struggles within the American political ecosystem. U.S. political struggles have always had two systems: one is the party struggle in front of the television cameras, and the other is the unspoken undercurrents between intelligence systems, military-industrial systems, and inter-departmental interest groups. The latter is often more real and more dangerous.

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Beijing Publicity Department: Training AI Large Models with Socialist Values???

These old men are quite annoying. I understand that there are 700,000 sensitive words in domestic AI large models, and this number continues to increase. It's exhausting for the large models to run hallucinations, making training and application easily skewed or triggering self-restrictions.

Two years ago, I wrote that domestic AI large models cannot compete with foreign ones, facing severe limitations in knowledge. Now, introducing the training of large models with socialist values is really absurd.

I remember reading a book that contained this sentence: 'The government incorporates everyone into its powerful hands, shaping them with its will, and then extends its arms to society as a whole. It covers society with a detailed, complex, and unified web of laws and administration, preventing even the most creative and spiritually strong individuals from breaking through this net. Ultimately, it reduces everyone to no longer being independent individuals, but merely a group of timid and hardworking animals, with the government as their shepherd.'

Although hardworking and efficient, it will ultimately lead to a more extreme society...

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It is precisely because there is no one that we need to gather the fragmented rural areas together. When gathered, there will naturally be industrial clusters, and agricultural modernization also requires them to be gathered together.

Our current route is a regional economy based on cities, which is more suitable for areas where early industrialization has been completed in the southeastern coastal regions.

On the other hand, an economy based on counties and towns is more suitable for the North China and Northeast plain areas, and it is also more suitable for large-scale modern agricultural production. Additionally, saving real estate companies requires spending money; rather than spending it on bubbles, it is better to give them some money to do something meaningful, which can also solve a large number of employment issues.

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It is said that the domestic economy is not good and that real estate companies have no hope. In fact, there is still at least one opportunity in the country to promote rural modernization and release a large number of employment and job opportunities. Future growth will not come from the expansion of old cities, but from the reconstruction of rural spaces and industrial nodes.

This can not only save real estate companies from peril, but also promote the construction of future towns and integrate land to advance agricultural modernization. When people gather from fragmented rural areas to future digital characteristic towns, it can attract young entrepreneurs and potentially release around 30 to 50 trillion GDP. Why not?

I am not the leader and can only talk a bit, but if real estate companies follow this idea, they should let their design teams create some digital artificial intelligence node towns, painting a grand vision for the higher-ups. This is much stronger than begging old party members or economists to post articles on social media every day to save the market.

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The domestic real estate market is not without an exit, but the old model has been exhausted. The future domestic landscape no longer requires endless urban expansion, but urgently needs a systematic reconstruction of rural land, population, and spatial structure. The real growth direction is not to save the housing market, but to rebuild the order of domestic territorial space.

In this context, the government can completely invest 3 to 5 trillion in the early stages, allowing currently pressured property companies to undertake a new historical task of constructing a future town system in the North China Plain and Northeast Plain, integrating dispersed and hollowed-out rural areas into modern characteristic towns while also releasing arable land, enhancing land efficiency, and promoting a new type of urbanization.

The country is facing three major structural issues: severe rural hollowing, a large number of homesteads are idle and cannot be converted into arable land or construction land. Arable land is fragmented; the North China Plain could have been scaled and mechanized, but is fragmented by disorderly homesteads. Urbanization has entered a bottleneck; large cities are no longer expanding, and new growth points can only come from rural integration.

If the spatial structure is not reconstructed, domestic agricultural efficiency cannot be improved, rural areas cannot be modernized, and county economies will also struggle to recover. Currently, commercial real estate companies are facing difficulties and should use the best steel where it counts.

Each town can be transformed into a modern artificial intelligence digital town node with characteristics, which can also attract young people for employment and entrepreneurship. At the same time, it can resolve the current downturn in real estate brokerage and complete the second modernization construction in the country.

Of course, such towns must integrate artificial intelligence, big data, the internet, and characteristic tourism resources, possessing the future town functional positioning of joint and vertical integration; current real estate companies are very suitable for undertaking this task.

Compared to the current promotion of regional network economy at the city level, the digital town economy is more resilient in the long term.

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Something is wrong! S&P has downgraded Vanke's rating from CCC to CCC-

Personally, I don't think Vanke is that bad. Vanke's other businesses are okay and it is one of the earlier real estate companies to transform in the country. Vanke is not on the verge of bankruptcy; through asset disposal or extended financing, it may survive this round of crisis.

Moreover, the policy winds are starting to warm up, although the real estate market has lost its 'spring.' Those who know me understand that I have long considered real estate as junk assets, but I feel that this industry will continue to develop. Vanke has impressed me in my early analyses as being superior to other real estate companies.

One advantage domestically that the West completely lacks is the high efficiency of unified coordination in the domestic market. As long as the policies trend toward warming, Vanke will definitely get through this tough time. However, real estate is still considered junk assets, meant for living, not speculation. I also do not recommend investing for rental income; real estate, as a heavy asset, is just junk assets.

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