币富日记-HTXD928

Comparison of Two BTC Bear Markets:

The decline adjustment from October 2021 to March 2022, at the weekly level, rebounded to the 0.618 position, and then initiated another wave of deep decline adjustment;

The decline adjustment from October 2025 to December 2025, at the weekly level, may rebound to the 0.618 position, which is around 98,000.

Currently, the BTC weekly MACD shows signs of bottoming out and moving upwards, the downward momentum may not be strong enough, and the price may rebound again to around 98,000.

Waiting for a breakthrough
BTC has been consolidating for almost 3 weeks, and the range of consolidation is getting smaller. The direction will be determined no later than next week. As long as it does not fall below 87600, it remains a perfect bullish structure. Once it effectively breaks through 94000, the price will head straight for 100000.

Judging the weakening of price momentum is actually not difficult; you just need to compare the performance of 'this wave' and 'the last wave' of increases.

During the upward process, the earliest change is usually not a decline, but rather that the price has stagnated at a similar position and cannot exceed the previous range.

When the bullish force is sufficient, each wave of advancement has several common characteristics: a significant push higher in the body, closing firmly above the previous high, and the distance between highs remains stable or even gradually widens.

Once the strength begins to weaken, these characteristics will change: the magnitude of the new high is noticeably shorter than the previous one, the closing after a breakout does not stabilize above the previous high, and the occurrence of upper shadows increases, indicating that the selling pressure encountered during the rise is getting larger.

These changes may seem subtle, but they are crucial; it means that the same buying power can no longer push out the previous gains.

As the price approaches the pressure zone, this phenomenon becomes more apparent: the upward space diminishes while the risk increases, naturally leading to fewer people willing to chase the high.

The result is that breakouts are no longer as decisive as in the early stages of the trend, the distance of the upward movement shortens, and the intervals between highs gradually narrow.

This does not necessarily indicate that the market is about to reverse, but it suggests that the strength of this trend is not as strong as before, and the winning rate and risk-reward ratio of continuing to chase higher will decline.

btc interest rate cut by 25 basis points in the early morning, but the price did not break through and fell again. The next rate cut may be in mid-next year, so this rate cut did not bring much benefit to the price. The news does not have much impact for now, and the pattern is still in an ascending triangle. In the short term, the price will test the lower support again.

Pay attention to the 8.8-8.9w range below. If it does not break this range, you can enter a long position. The plan was to enter long below 9w yesterday, but the trend still looks weak. Those who have entered can take profits first and wait for a pullback to the lower support range before considering entering. After that, there will at least be another wave of rebound. When it pulls back to 8.8-8.9w, enter long directly.

Mixed feelings
1. The concern is that last night's interest rate cut and the news of the Federal Reserve restarting its balance sheet expansion did not allow BTC to break through the resistance level of 94000, but instead rose and then fell back.
2. The joy is that BTC has rebounded more than 10,000 since 8500, and the hourly level still shows a bullish trend with continuously higher highs and lows.
3. If BTC breaks below the previous low at the hourly level, breaking this bullish structure, it may potentially revisit the previous low.

Why is there optimism for ETH to reach 4000?
1. ETH/BTC has broken the descending trend line.
2. The BTC.D weekly EMA medium-short term moving average is about to cross bearish, which means the 3-year BTC.D bullish trend may be coming to an end, and the first to benefit from this will be ETH.
3. QT ends, and QE restarts, which is favorable for higher-risk assets. After QT ended in September 2019, ETH gradually became stronger than BTC.

Tomorrow's Tone: Hawkish Rate Cuts

Focus:
1. Neutral interest rate, how many more rate cuts, expecting two
2. Dot plot, September SEP shows only one rate cut in 2026, with the Fed internal vote being 10 to 9. This time I think the best scenario is 10 to 9, with a close 11 to 8, or 12 to 7, with most expecting only one rate cut in 2026.

Currently, the market expects two rate cuts in 2026, and there will be slight adjustments after the dot plot is released. However, considering the new chairman's attitude after taking office and the discussions about changing Fed members, the impact of the dot plot will be reduced.
The last rate cut of Grandpa Powell's era has concluded, marking a perfect ending. If there is another rate cut during his term, the issues in the labor market may become significant, and this risk is indeed rising.

On the morning of the 11th at 3 AM, the Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision.
There is a high probability of a rate cut.
If no other positive news comes out,
the rebound may come to an end.

Large funds have entered the ETH market, and last night it broke through 3250, thus the "trend" has reversed. This trend is only being observed for this week and the week before next Thursday.

The weekly MACD is already preparing to turn upwards, and the 10-day moving average has also stopped falling, with the next high point aimed at around 3600. Therefore, taking short positions around 3600 offers the best risk-reward ratio. Some are preparing to go all in short around 3400, which is not recommended, because if 3440 is directly broken, it will rush towards 3600, with 3520 and 3550 serving as weak resistance, and 3660 as strong pressure. The resistance point near 3600 is 3588, while the resistance points between 3600-3660 are 3626/3646. If the price exceeds 3588, all these positions will yield good profits for short positions.

ETH takes the lead
1. Although BTC has still not effectively stabilized at 94000, ETH has completely broken through 3220
2. ETH/BTC has exited the downtrend, and after sufficient adjustment, this wave of ETH/BTC is expected to surpass the previous high of 0.043 and reach a new high
3. The expectation of interest rate cuts + QE restart will lead funds to shift towards high-risk assets, which is favorable for ETH, optimistic about ETH returning to 4000+

以太坊基金会最近每天都在出以太坊，只不过现在它变聪明了，之前都是一两千个的出，现在一天只出几十个，我就纳闷了，以太坊开发需要这么多费用吗？估计很多都进入了私人钱包，拿去嗨皮了

Calm Before the Big Fluctuation
1.BTC has been consolidating in a narrow range in recent days, with resistance around 94000 and the lower lows continuously rising. The market is waiting for an opportunity to break through, and the interest rate cut on the 10th and the upcoming QE will disrupt the market's brief equilibrium.
2.During the QE period, ETH/BTC will strengthen.

SOL triggered a new weekly oversold signal.
This time the signal's position is a bit awkward, as it is far from the previous low, making it difficult to set a stop-loss point, and the entry position isn't ideal either.
In the previous round, the position where the weekly oversold signal was triggered was at a larger scale low, with a clear stop-loss and better position management.
Although it is also an oversold signal, the difference in position makes the betting difficulty completely different.

The current top ten stablecoins by market capitalization, USDD has the greatest competitive advantage.

Today, I took some time to look at the landscape of stablecoins, and I found that USDD's competitiveness is quite strong among the top ten stablecoins by market capitalization.

Compared to centralized stablecoins like USDT, USDC, PYUSD, USD1, USDG, RLUSD, and FDUSD, USDD has characteristics such as censorship resistance and non-freezability, while the yields under its native protocol are significantly higher than those of these stablecoins.

In comparison with decentralized stablecoins like USDe and DAI, USDD's underlying strategy is sufficiently stable to ensure the safety of user funds, while also promising that users can always redeem in extreme market conditions.

If I had to say what USDD's advantages are, I believe that decentralization + USDT 1:1 zero-loss exchange + native protocol APY 12% together reshape the stablecoin landscape.

Facts have proven once again: the meme cycle is always one step ahead of emotions.
Sol has taken the lead in warming up, and liquidity is steadily beginning to spread to BSC.
To be honest—
BSC is both P and black, and loves to engage in insider dealings; it's common for good friends to extract a few K at the opening.
But for the Chinese, it remains the most friendly, easiest to understand, and most accessible chain to reach the ceiling.
Don’t be fooled by the complaints; the ones truly making big money have not missed a single round in BSC.
This time is no different.
After the conference ends, the main wave of BSC is just beginning.
No need to argue, December is the on-chain golden month for BSC.
Get ready, BSC will not disappoint this round.

Waiting for a breakthrough
1. This week, expected good news about interest rate cuts and the end of QT to restart QE
2. BTC on an hourly basis is still in a bullish structure with higher lows and highs, and after sufficient consolidation, once it breaks 94000, it will accelerate upwards

December is always a range market that repeatedly fluctuates and builds a bottom!

Everyone should not get too excited about short-term trades. When I open a position, it's just to bet on a rebound, and when it’s close, I’ll get out; otherwise, it’s easy to hit a stop loss. So everyone should be rational about this. This week, we might see a rebound, especially with expectations of interest rate cuts, while next week the yen will likely see an interest rate hike. Once the interest rate is raised, short-term volatility is bound to increase...

We still need to be vigilant about potential risks and be cautious primarily in short-term trading!