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公众号《链上祥哥》八年币圈深耕,短线博弈见真章,中长线布局有章法。精准捕捉最优交易时机,一手消息为你赋能投资决策。选对方向,找对节奏,这里有你需要的专业视角。
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Italy's recent actions are truly ruthless!​ I just came across the news that the Italian government directly slammed the table and demanded gold from the European Central Bank, a whopping $300 billion, stating, "What’s ours must be returned." This is not ordinary news; it’s like dropping a bomb in the European financial circle. To be honest, my first reaction was: this plot seems somewhat akin to the logic of "private keys equal assets" in cryptocurrency? Gold is kept by others, nominally yours, but the control is not in your hands, it’s ultimately empty. Now Italy is directly turning the table, clearly wanting to reclaim its sovereign assets. This kind of action is reminiscent of what we in the crypto community often say: "Not your keys, not your coins"—only this time it’s about physical gold, and on a massive scale. Some might think this is a political gimmick, but I don’t see it that simply. Over the past few years, the global economy has been swaying back and forth, and at the national level, we are also starting to see "on-chain autonomy": no one wants to be choked by centralized institutions. Italy’s move might just kickstart a new trend: more countries might follow suit to reclaim asset control. When that happens, the foundation of the traditional financial system will surely shake. As for those mentioning Trump’s stance? I’m not surprised. This hardline approach of "managing one’s own assets" is fundamentally in line with the crypto spirit, opposing monopolies by large institutions and emphasizing individual sovereignty. If this becomes the trend, it’s possible that even Bitcoin and DeFi will be re-discussed: after all, compared to gold, assets controlled by code are truly decentralized. However, let's be clear: such significant matters will surely stir market sentiment in the short term. Gold prices, euro exchange rates, and even Bitcoin might be influenced. But in the long term, I think this is a good thing: the more people realize the "custodial risk", the better they can understand why we need true asset autonomy, whether it’s national gold or the Bitcoin in your wallet. In short, Italy’s move is not just about gold; it's about attitude. Will it spark a "withdrawal tide" of sovereign assets? Will other countries follow? How will the market respond? Let’s keep an eye on the market while enjoying the drama. #加密市场反弹 #加密市场观察 $ETH {future}(ETHUSDT)
Italy's recent actions are truly ruthless!​

I just came across the news that the Italian government directly slammed the table and demanded gold from the European Central Bank, a whopping $300 billion, stating, "What’s ours must be returned." This is not ordinary news; it’s like dropping a bomb in the European financial circle.

To be honest, my first reaction was: this plot seems somewhat akin to the logic of "private keys equal assets" in cryptocurrency? Gold is kept by others, nominally yours, but the control is not in your hands, it’s ultimately empty. Now Italy is directly turning the table, clearly wanting to reclaim its sovereign assets. This kind of action is reminiscent of what we in the crypto community often say: "Not your keys, not your coins"—only this time it’s about physical gold, and on a massive scale.

Some might think this is a political gimmick, but I don’t see it that simply. Over the past few years, the global economy has been swaying back and forth, and at the national level, we are also starting to see "on-chain autonomy": no one wants to be choked by centralized institutions. Italy’s move might just kickstart a new trend: more countries might follow suit to reclaim asset control. When that happens, the foundation of the traditional financial system will surely shake.

As for those mentioning Trump’s stance? I’m not surprised. This hardline approach of "managing one’s own assets" is fundamentally in line with the crypto spirit, opposing monopolies by large institutions and emphasizing individual sovereignty. If this becomes the trend, it’s possible that even Bitcoin and DeFi will be re-discussed: after all, compared to gold, assets controlled by code are truly decentralized.

However, let's be clear: such significant matters will surely stir market sentiment in the short term. Gold prices, euro exchange rates, and even Bitcoin might be influenced. But in the long term, I think this is a good thing: the more people realize the "custodial risk", the better they can understand why we need true asset autonomy, whether it’s national gold or the Bitcoin in your wallet.

In short, Italy’s move is not just about gold; it's about attitude. Will it spark a "withdrawal tide" of sovereign assets? Will other countries follow? How will the market respond? Let’s keep an eye on the market while enjoying the drama.
#加密市场反弹 #加密市场观察 $ETH
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Shocking explosion! Veteran platform evaporates overnight, countless retail investors' blood and tears lesson! Old investors hit the blackboard in tearsBrothers, my hands are shaking today! I just saw news that a 'veteran' digital asset platform operating for nearly ten years suddenly locked its doors—users can't withdraw funds, customer service is completely unreachable, and the hard-earned money of 110000 brothers and sisters has vanished like an avalanche. This is not about small fries; it’s JuBi, which has a 'compliance' sign! 1.6 billion in assets just disappeared, how many people’s life savings have gone to zero? I’ve been in the crypto space for eight years, seen many being taken advantage of, but this kind of behavior truly chills me to the bone! The key point is here: Their platform token JU, went from 24 to more than 4 in a sudden crash, almost like a knee chop! What’s even more heartbreaking is that an industry friend quietly told me that the platform allegedly used anonymous tools to secretly transfer nearly 50 million dollars in assets to overseas accounts. The person in charge? Long gone without a trace. This is not management; it’s clearly a meticulously planned 'golden cicada shedding its shell'!

Shocking explosion! Veteran platform evaporates overnight, countless retail investors' blood and tears lesson! Old investors hit the blackboard in tears

Brothers, my hands are shaking today! I just saw news that a 'veteran' digital asset platform operating for nearly ten years suddenly locked its doors—users can't withdraw funds, customer service is completely unreachable, and the hard-earned money of 110000 brothers and sisters has vanished like an avalanche. This is not about small fries; it’s JuBi, which has a 'compliance' sign! 1.6 billion in assets just disappeared, how many people’s life savings have gone to zero? I’ve been in the crypto space for eight years, seen many being taken advantage of, but this kind of behavior truly chills me to the bone!
The key point is here: Their platform token JU, went from 24 to more than 4 in a sudden crash, almost like a knee chop! What’s even more heartbreaking is that an industry friend quietly told me that the platform allegedly used anonymous tools to secretly transfer nearly 50 million dollars in assets to overseas accounts. The person in charge? Long gone without a trace. This is not management; it’s clearly a meticulously planned 'golden cicada shedding its shell'!
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The End of the Bull Market or a Half-Time Break? My Take on the Key Signals of the Current Bitcoin CycleFriends, today I want to talk about the direction of this Bitcoin cycle. Let me be clear: the historical high of $126,200 set in October likely marks the peak of this bull market, but the upcoming bear market may not replicate the severe declines of the past; instead, it is more likely to enter an 'extended' adjustment period. Below, I will analyze a few key signals based on data and personal observations. 1. The cyclical patterns are 'morphing'​ The four-year Bitcoin halving cycle has indeed been as precise as a clock: approximately 18 months after the halving, a peak is reached, followed by the start of a bear market. According to this pattern, the peak in October this year aligns with the time window after the halving in April 2024.

The End of the Bull Market or a Half-Time Break? My Take on the Key Signals of the Current Bitcoin Cycle

Friends, today I want to talk about the direction of this Bitcoin cycle. Let me be clear: the historical high of $126,200 set in October likely marks the peak of this bull market, but the upcoming bear market may not replicate the severe declines of the past; instead, it is more likely to enter an 'extended' adjustment period. Below, I will analyze a few key signals based on data and personal observations.
1. The cyclical patterns are 'morphing'​
The four-year Bitcoin halving cycle has indeed been as precise as a clock: approximately 18 months after the halving, a peak is reached, followed by the start of a bear market. According to this pattern, the peak in October this year aligns with the time window after the halving in April 2024.
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Eight Years of Hard Work for Freedom: My Cryptocurrency Survival Rules and 7300000 ComebackLast winter, I was drinking with an old friend, and he shook his beer mug and said: "Old Zhang, you live such a carefree life, it makes me envious to death." I looked at the residue of malt syrup at the bottom of the cup and smiled: "Carefree? That was exchanged for twenty years of sleep." I remember the most difficult time crouching in the partition of the urban village, with the router out of service due to unpaid fees. The account numbers were plummeting like a spinning top, and every time I scrolled the mouse wheel, a chill shot up my neck. Staring at the ceiling at three in the morning, I suddenly asked myself: "If the market crashes again tomorrow morning, would you still dare to hold on?" That fire in my heart suddenly exploded: "I dare!"

Eight Years of Hard Work for Freedom: My Cryptocurrency Survival Rules and 7300000 Comeback

Last winter, I was drinking with an old friend, and he shook his beer mug and said: "Old Zhang, you live such a carefree life, it makes me envious to death." I looked at the residue of malt syrup at the bottom of the cup and smiled: "Carefree? That was exchanged for twenty years of sleep."
I remember the most difficult time crouching in the partition of the urban village, with the router out of service due to unpaid fees. The account numbers were plummeting like a spinning top, and every time I scrolled the mouse wheel, a chill shot up my neck. Staring at the ceiling at three in the morning, I suddenly asked myself: "If the market crashes again tomorrow morning, would you still dare to hold on?" That fire in my heart suddenly exploded: "I dare!"
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美联储降息:一剂“温水”难解经济渴,市场押注流动性盛宴!利率下调的明牌之下,美联储的真实底牌是面对经济裂痕与政治压力的无奈妥协。 美联储的降息钟声在凌晨如期敲响,25个基点的调整幅度看似波澜不惊,却像一块投入湖面的石头,激起层层涟漪 官方声明中规中矩,但仔细品味会议细节,你会发现美联储的决策天平正被经济数据疲软、内部分歧加剧和白宫压力这三股力量撕扯 市场表面庆祝降息,实则将目光投向了美联储同时推出的短期国债购买计划——每月约400亿美元的流动性注入 尽管官方竭力划清它与量化宽松的界限,但交易员们用脚投票:美股上扬、黄金站稳4200美元、比特币猛冲回94000美元关口,一场“似QE而非QE”的狂欢已然开启。 1 明修栈道:降息25基点的常规操作 这次降息将联邦基金利率目标区间下调至3.50%-3.75%,这是美联储今年第三次降息,也是自2024年9月开启降息周期以来的第六次 从表面看,美联储的决策有据可依。声明中指出美国经济仍在温和扩张,但就业增长已经放缓,失业率从6月的4.1%升至9月的4.4% 与此同时,通胀水平虽较年初有所上升,但仍显著高于2%的长期目标 这种“就业疲软+通胀顽固”的组合拳,让美联储陷入了两难境地。 鲍威尔在新闻发布会上的表态谨慎异常,他将当前的利率水平描述为“处于中性利率区间”,并强调“政策并非预设路径” 这种谨慎语气与市场期待的激进宽松形成鲜明对比,也暗示了美联储内部对进一步降息的阻力。 2 暗度陈仓:国债购买计划才是真正的火药桶 尽管美联储试图淡化其影响,但每月约400亿美元的短期国债购买计划,无疑向市场传递了强烈的流动性信号。这一操作巧妙地绕过了“量化宽松”的标签,却实现了类似的效果——向金融系统注入资金。 历史经验表明,一旦央行开启资产购买通道,往往会产生远超预期的乘数效应。当前美国经济面临的关键问题不再是利率高低,而是信用收缩带来的流动性紧张。美联储这一招,看似温和,实则为金融市场打开了水龙头。 黄金反应最为直接,站上4200美元大关表明投资者对美元信用的担忧在加剧。而比特币重返94000美元的表现,更凸显了避险资产与风险资产的奇异共鸣——市场既担心经济下滑,又渴望流动性盛宴。 3 裂缝难掩:三张反对票背后的决策危机 本次会议最令人震惊的是内部裂痕的公开化。12名投票委员中,3人投下反对票,创下2019年以来最高反对记录 这三张反对票代表了两极立场:理事斯蒂芬·米兰主张降息50个基点,而芝加哥联储主席古尔斯比和堪萨斯城联储主席施密德则主张维持利率不变 这种分歧不是简单的鸽派与鹰派之争,而是反映了美联储对经济判断的根本性分歧。 鲍威尔坦言:“这是我们少见的双目标同时冲突的情况。” 这句话轻描淡写,却暴露出美联储在稳定物价和实现充分就业这两个核心使命间的艰难平衡。 一方面,通胀压力尚未完全消除;另一方面,就业市场显现降温迹象。这种两难境地使得美联储的每一次决策都像是在走钢丝。 4 政治压力:特朗普的阴影笼罩美联储 特朗普在降息后的表态极具攻击性:“降息幅度太小,本可以更大。” 这已不是他第一次公开批评美联储的货币政策。自今年1月再次就任总统以来,特朗普多次指责鲍威尔降息过慢,甚至威胁解除其职务 更值得关注的是,特朗普已经开始介入美联储人事布局。他当日与美联储主席候选人之一、前美联储理事凯文·沃什会面,并表示他想要的是一个“在利率问题上诚实的人”,希望利率能“低得多” 白宫与国家央行之间的传统防火墙正在被侵蚀。特朗普提名的美联储理事米兰虽然仅有一票,但其连续三次提出更大幅度降息的主张 与白宫的期望高度一致,这不能不让人怀疑美联储独立性能否保持。 5 点阵图玄机:未来的降息空间被大幅压缩 美联储最新发布的点阵图显示,政策制定者的中位数预期是到2026年仅会再降息25个基点 这一信号与市场期待的多次降息相去甚远,暗示本轮降息周期可能已接近尾声。 点阵图还显示,2025年和2026年的联邦基金利率中位数预测分别维持在3.4%和3.1%不变 与当前3.5%-3.75%的利率区间相比,未来降息空间仅有25-50个基点,远低于市场预期。 鲍威尔强调:“联邦基金利率现在位于宽泛的中性利率估测区间,我们现在处于良好位置,可以等待和观察经济形势如何发展。” 这种观望态度与特朗普要求的大幅降息形成鲜明对比,也预示着未来几个月美联储可能进入政策平静期。 6 市场何去何从:流动性驱动将成为主导逻辑 对于投资者而言,需要清醒认识到的是,未来市场走势将更多由流动性而非基本面驱动。美联储的国债购买计划将为市场提供充裕的美元流动性,这种环境有利于风险资产表现,但同时也可能加剧市场波动。 在各类资产中,加密货币可能成为最大受益者。比特币等数字资产不仅受益于流动性注入,还因其与传统金融体系的相对独立性而吸引避险资金。黄金的强势表现已经证明了市场对法定货币信用的担忧,而比特币则提供了另一种“去中心化”的价值存储选项。 然而,风险也不容忽视。美联储内部的分歧意味着未来的政策路径充满不确定性,每一个经济数据的发布都可能引发官员们的不同解读,从而导致市场预期的剧烈波动。 美联储点阵图已经暗示,2026年可能只有一次降息 而特朗普对美联储主席人选的虎视眈眈,更增添了未来政策的不确定性 鲍威尔似乎已开始为政策设置“路障”,避免在其卸任前让美联储过于被动。 市场已经做出了选择——不管美联储嘴上怎么说,资金先押注流动性盛宴。毕竟,当央行同时打出降息和资产购买两张牌时,聪明钱都知道该追随哪一股潮流。 关注祥哥,带你了解更多一手资讯和币圈知识精准点位,成为你币圈的导航,学习才是你最大的财富!#加密市场反弹 #美联储降息 $ETH {future}(ETHUSDT)

美联储降息:一剂“温水”难解经济渴,市场押注流动性盛宴!

利率下调的明牌之下,美联储的真实底牌是面对经济裂痕与政治压力的无奈妥协。
美联储的降息钟声在凌晨如期敲响,25个基点的调整幅度看似波澜不惊,却像一块投入湖面的石头,激起层层涟漪
官方声明中规中矩,但仔细品味会议细节,你会发现美联储的决策天平正被经济数据疲软、内部分歧加剧和白宫压力这三股力量撕扯
市场表面庆祝降息,实则将目光投向了美联储同时推出的短期国债购买计划——每月约400亿美元的流动性注入
尽管官方竭力划清它与量化宽松的界限,但交易员们用脚投票:美股上扬、黄金站稳4200美元、比特币猛冲回94000美元关口,一场“似QE而非QE”的狂欢已然开启。
1 明修栈道:降息25基点的常规操作
这次降息将联邦基金利率目标区间下调至3.50%-3.75%,这是美联储今年第三次降息,也是自2024年9月开启降息周期以来的第六次
从表面看,美联储的决策有据可依。声明中指出美国经济仍在温和扩张,但就业增长已经放缓,失业率从6月的4.1%升至9月的4.4%
与此同时,通胀水平虽较年初有所上升,但仍显著高于2%的长期目标
这种“就业疲软+通胀顽固”的组合拳,让美联储陷入了两难境地。
鲍威尔在新闻发布会上的表态谨慎异常,他将当前的利率水平描述为“处于中性利率区间”,并强调“政策并非预设路径”
这种谨慎语气与市场期待的激进宽松形成鲜明对比,也暗示了美联储内部对进一步降息的阻力。
2 暗度陈仓:国债购买计划才是真正的火药桶
尽管美联储试图淡化其影响,但每月约400亿美元的短期国债购买计划,无疑向市场传递了强烈的流动性信号。这一操作巧妙地绕过了“量化宽松”的标签,却实现了类似的效果——向金融系统注入资金。
历史经验表明,一旦央行开启资产购买通道,往往会产生远超预期的乘数效应。当前美国经济面临的关键问题不再是利率高低,而是信用收缩带来的流动性紧张。美联储这一招,看似温和,实则为金融市场打开了水龙头。
黄金反应最为直接,站上4200美元大关表明投资者对美元信用的担忧在加剧。而比特币重返94000美元的表现,更凸显了避险资产与风险资产的奇异共鸣——市场既担心经济下滑,又渴望流动性盛宴。
3 裂缝难掩:三张反对票背后的决策危机
本次会议最令人震惊的是内部裂痕的公开化。12名投票委员中,3人投下反对票,创下2019年以来最高反对记录
这三张反对票代表了两极立场:理事斯蒂芬·米兰主张降息50个基点,而芝加哥联储主席古尔斯比和堪萨斯城联储主席施密德则主张维持利率不变
这种分歧不是简单的鸽派与鹰派之争,而是反映了美联储对经济判断的根本性分歧。
鲍威尔坦言:“这是我们少见的双目标同时冲突的情况。”
这句话轻描淡写,却暴露出美联储在稳定物价和实现充分就业这两个核心使命间的艰难平衡。
一方面,通胀压力尚未完全消除;另一方面,就业市场显现降温迹象。这种两难境地使得美联储的每一次决策都像是在走钢丝。
4 政治压力:特朗普的阴影笼罩美联储
特朗普在降息后的表态极具攻击性:“降息幅度太小,本可以更大。”
这已不是他第一次公开批评美联储的货币政策。自今年1月再次就任总统以来,特朗普多次指责鲍威尔降息过慢,甚至威胁解除其职务
更值得关注的是,特朗普已经开始介入美联储人事布局。他当日与美联储主席候选人之一、前美联储理事凯文·沃什会面,并表示他想要的是一个“在利率问题上诚实的人”,希望利率能“低得多”
白宫与国家央行之间的传统防火墙正在被侵蚀。特朗普提名的美联储理事米兰虽然仅有一票,但其连续三次提出更大幅度降息的主张
与白宫的期望高度一致,这不能不让人怀疑美联储独立性能否保持。
5 点阵图玄机:未来的降息空间被大幅压缩
美联储最新发布的点阵图显示,政策制定者的中位数预期是到2026年仅会再降息25个基点
这一信号与市场期待的多次降息相去甚远,暗示本轮降息周期可能已接近尾声。
点阵图还显示,2025年和2026年的联邦基金利率中位数预测分别维持在3.4%和3.1%不变
与当前3.5%-3.75%的利率区间相比,未来降息空间仅有25-50个基点,远低于市场预期。
鲍威尔强调:“联邦基金利率现在位于宽泛的中性利率估测区间,我们现在处于良好位置,可以等待和观察经济形势如何发展。”
这种观望态度与特朗普要求的大幅降息形成鲜明对比,也预示着未来几个月美联储可能进入政策平静期。
6 市场何去何从:流动性驱动将成为主导逻辑
对于投资者而言,需要清醒认识到的是,未来市场走势将更多由流动性而非基本面驱动。美联储的国债购买计划将为市场提供充裕的美元流动性,这种环境有利于风险资产表现,但同时也可能加剧市场波动。
在各类资产中,加密货币可能成为最大受益者。比特币等数字资产不仅受益于流动性注入,还因其与传统金融体系的相对独立性而吸引避险资金。黄金的强势表现已经证明了市场对法定货币信用的担忧,而比特币则提供了另一种“去中心化”的价值存储选项。
然而,风险也不容忽视。美联储内部的分歧意味着未来的政策路径充满不确定性,每一个经济数据的发布都可能引发官员们的不同解读,从而导致市场预期的剧烈波动。
美联储点阵图已经暗示,2026年可能只有一次降息
而特朗普对美联储主席人选的虎视眈眈,更增添了未来政策的不确定性
鲍威尔似乎已开始为政策设置“路障”,避免在其卸任前让美联储过于被动。
市场已经做出了选择——不管美联储嘴上怎么说,资金先押注流动性盛宴。毕竟,当央行同时打出降息和资产购买两张牌时,聪明钱都知道该追随哪一股潮流。
关注祥哥,带你了解更多一手资讯和币圈知识精准点位,成为你币圈的导航,学习才是你最大的财富!#加密市场反弹 #美联储降息 $ETH
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The bloody advice from a ten-year veteran of crypto trading: don't gamble with your sixth sense anymore!At three o'clock in the morning, I refreshed a certain student's account data for the 37th time. This programmer born in the 90s, who once boldly declared 'I'm all in tonight' in the 'Sixth Sense' live stream, now has a holding curve that looks like an ECG — last month, when it surged to a high of 48%, he excitedly sent me a red envelope; two weeks later, the account crashed by 61%, crying and asking me 'Is there any hope left after losing all my salary?' This reminds me of the painful lesson I learned in 2018 when I stumbled upon the BCH fork. At that time, I was also duped by 'experts' promoting the 'intuitive trading method', and as a result, my account was wiped out in three days. Over the years, I have witnessed too many newcomers repeat the same mistakes, and finally realized an iron rule: the most dangerous belief in the crypto market is thinking that 'feelings can make money'.

The bloody advice from a ten-year veteran of crypto trading: don't gamble with your sixth sense anymore!

At three o'clock in the morning, I refreshed a certain student's account data for the 37th time. This programmer born in the 90s, who once boldly declared 'I'm all in tonight' in the 'Sixth Sense' live stream, now has a holding curve that looks like an ECG — last month, when it surged to a high of 48%, he excitedly sent me a red envelope; two weeks later, the account crashed by 61%, crying and asking me 'Is there any hope left after losing all my salary?'
This reminds me of the painful lesson I learned in 2018 when I stumbled upon the BCH fork. At that time, I was also duped by 'experts' promoting the 'intuitive trading method', and as a result, my account was wiped out in three days. Over the years, I have witnessed too many newcomers repeat the same mistakes, and finally realized an iron rule: the most dangerous belief in the crypto market is thinking that 'feelings can make money'.
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鸽声嘹亮后,市场为何高台跳水?今晚的数据才是真正的“审判日”!各位老铁,昨晚鲍威尔在镜头前唱了一出标准的“鸽派大戏”,降息暗示、扩表计划、对就业风险的承认,全套组合拳打得看似滴水不漏。但市场呢?比特币冲高回落,以太坊更是从3447美元高位直接表演了一波“自由落体”。这剧情是不是有点眼熟?利好出尽,就是利空!市场早已把预期吃得干干净净,等到消息落地,只剩下一地鸡毛和镰刀的呼啸声 但我说,戏还远没唱完!鲍威尔亲手把下一幕的剧本,塞到了今晚21:30这个冰冷的数据里。他明确说了,美联储未来要“看数据吃饭”。翻译成人话就是:我暂时不给你们指路了,是涨是跌,你们自己看数据猜吧!​ 而今晚公布的美国至12月7日当周初请失业金人数,就成了数据依赖时代的第一道圣旨,也是全球市场的第一个“审判日” 1 为什么一个每周都公布的数据,今晚能定生死? 因为它直接戳中了当前全球博弈最脆弱的命门:就业市场的裂痕。昨晚鲍威尔所有鸽派表态的基石,就是他承认劳动力市场存在下行风险。他甚至暗示,近几个月的就业增长数据可能“水分”不小 这意味着,美联储未来是否继续降息,甚至降多快,就看就业市场会不会真的恶化。而初请失业金人数,正是衡量就业市场健康度最实时、最敏锐的体温计 今晚的预期值是22万人。这个数字本身就是一个关键的心理关口。 如果公布值 < 22万人(比如意外强劲,降到20万以下):那将是给市场的一记当头闷棍。这说明劳动力市场依然坚韧,鲍威尔的担忧可能被夸大了。结果就是,美联储降息的门槛被瞬间抬高。市场会恐慌地意识到:美联储可能更有理由按兵不动,明年的降息次数可能要大打折扣。那么,昨晚利好出尽的下跌,只是开胃小菜,更大的抛售潮会席卷而来,美元走强,风险资产全面承压 如果公布值 > 22万人(如果显著高于预期,比如超过24万人):那就等于当场验证了鲍威尔的担忧,坐实了就业市场正在快速冷却。市场会立刻解读为:经济下行压力这么大,美联储明年必须加快降息来救火!​ 那么,风险资产的狂欢可能瞬间被点燃,美元跳水,黄金、美股,尤其是对利率敏感的加密货币,可能会迎来一波暴力反弹 2 加密市场早已是惊弓之鸟 老铁们别忘了,加密市场自己现在也是自身难保。自打10月份创下历史高点后,比特币在一个半月内回撤了接近30%,甚至跌破了9万美元的心理关口,直接把年内的涨幅全抹平了 核心原因就是宏观层面流动性预期的急剧转向 之前推动市场上涨的比特币现货ETF,资金流入已经变成了持续净流出。部分长期机构投资者选择在流动性可能收紧前兑现利润,这让市场最重要的外部增量资金来源哑火了 同时,市场内部的结构也非常脆弱,过高的杠杆率叠加摇摆的情绪,让市场更容易受到流动性冲击。前几天刚发生过单日爆仓超10亿美元的事情,多头力量都快被榨干了 所以,加密市场现在就像一堆干柴,今晚的数据就是那根火柴。火柴点好了,可能燃起一波反弹;点不好,可能就是一场火灾。 3 我的个人判断与生存指南 说到底,美联储重回“数据依赖”模式,意味着我们未来会进入一个高波动和高不确定性的阶段。市场会像惊弓之鸟一样,对每一个经济数据都做出过度反应 对于今晚的数据和后续操作,我有几个个人看法: 别被短期情绪牵着走:无论数据好坏,市场最初的剧烈反应往往夹杂着情绪和杠杆的驱动。数据利好带来的反弹,未必是趋势反转的信号,反而可能是多头减仓的机会;而数据利空引发的暴跌,也可能过度悲观 现金有时是最好的筹码:当市场普遍面临资金吃紧时,不管你是风险资产还是避险黄金,都可能被无差别抛售以回笼现金。真正具备避险属性的是现金及高流动性资产 在方向不明朗时,持有现金,耐心等待机会,比盲目冲进去接飞刀要聪明。 关注更长期的逻辑:短期波动再剧烈,也不能完全否定加密资产的长期叙事。机构化、合规化仍是关键,未来需要关注ETF资金的恢复情况、全球监管政策的明朗化以及实际应用需求的渗透 今晚21:30,不要只看一个数字。要看这个数字如何撕裂市场的共识,如何为接下来至少一个月的交易定下残酷的基调。 系好安全带,这不再是鲍威尔的独角戏,这是多空双方在微观数据上的绞杀战。在“数据依赖”的猜谜游戏中,任何一个意外都可能成为压垮骆驼的最后一根稻草。对于早已炒作过度的行情而言,任何反抽,都是上帝赐予的逃顶或布局机会。 币圈没有神仙,只有能看懂信号、保持冷静的聪明人。关注我,每天分享实用策略,我们一起在风浪里找方向。#加密市场反弹 #美联储降息 $ETH {future}(ETHUSDT)

鸽声嘹亮后,市场为何高台跳水?今晚的数据才是真正的“审判日”!

各位老铁,昨晚鲍威尔在镜头前唱了一出标准的“鸽派大戏”,降息暗示、扩表计划、对就业风险的承认,全套组合拳打得看似滴水不漏。但市场呢?比特币冲高回落,以太坊更是从3447美元高位直接表演了一波“自由落体”。这剧情是不是有点眼熟?利好出尽,就是利空!市场早已把预期吃得干干净净,等到消息落地,只剩下一地鸡毛和镰刀的呼啸声
但我说,戏还远没唱完!鲍威尔亲手把下一幕的剧本,塞到了今晚21:30这个冰冷的数据里。他明确说了,美联储未来要“看数据吃饭”。翻译成人话就是:我暂时不给你们指路了,是涨是跌,你们自己看数据猜吧!​ 而今晚公布的美国至12月7日当周初请失业金人数,就成了数据依赖时代的第一道圣旨,也是全球市场的第一个“审判日”
1 为什么一个每周都公布的数据,今晚能定生死?
因为它直接戳中了当前全球博弈最脆弱的命门:就业市场的裂痕。昨晚鲍威尔所有鸽派表态的基石,就是他承认劳动力市场存在下行风险。他甚至暗示,近几个月的就业增长数据可能“水分”不小
这意味着,美联储未来是否继续降息,甚至降多快,就看就业市场会不会真的恶化。而初请失业金人数,正是衡量就业市场健康度最实时、最敏锐的体温计
今晚的预期值是22万人。这个数字本身就是一个关键的心理关口。
如果公布值 < 22万人(比如意外强劲,降到20万以下):那将是给市场的一记当头闷棍。这说明劳动力市场依然坚韧,鲍威尔的担忧可能被夸大了。结果就是,美联储降息的门槛被瞬间抬高。市场会恐慌地意识到:美联储可能更有理由按兵不动,明年的降息次数可能要大打折扣。那么,昨晚利好出尽的下跌,只是开胃小菜,更大的抛售潮会席卷而来,美元走强,风险资产全面承压
如果公布值 > 22万人(如果显著高于预期,比如超过24万人):那就等于当场验证了鲍威尔的担忧,坐实了就业市场正在快速冷却。市场会立刻解读为:经济下行压力这么大,美联储明年必须加快降息来救火!​ 那么,风险资产的狂欢可能瞬间被点燃,美元跳水,黄金、美股,尤其是对利率敏感的加密货币,可能会迎来一波暴力反弹
2 加密市场早已是惊弓之鸟
老铁们别忘了,加密市场自己现在也是自身难保。自打10月份创下历史高点后,比特币在一个半月内回撤了接近30%,甚至跌破了9万美元的心理关口,直接把年内的涨幅全抹平了
核心原因就是宏观层面流动性预期的急剧转向
之前推动市场上涨的比特币现货ETF,资金流入已经变成了持续净流出。部分长期机构投资者选择在流动性可能收紧前兑现利润,这让市场最重要的外部增量资金来源哑火了
同时,市场内部的结构也非常脆弱,过高的杠杆率叠加摇摆的情绪,让市场更容易受到流动性冲击。前几天刚发生过单日爆仓超10亿美元的事情,多头力量都快被榨干了
所以,加密市场现在就像一堆干柴,今晚的数据就是那根火柴。火柴点好了,可能燃起一波反弹;点不好,可能就是一场火灾。
3 我的个人判断与生存指南
说到底,美联储重回“数据依赖”模式,意味着我们未来会进入一个高波动和高不确定性的阶段。市场会像惊弓之鸟一样,对每一个经济数据都做出过度反应
对于今晚的数据和后续操作,我有几个个人看法:
别被短期情绪牵着走:无论数据好坏,市场最初的剧烈反应往往夹杂着情绪和杠杆的驱动。数据利好带来的反弹,未必是趋势反转的信号,反而可能是多头减仓的机会;而数据利空引发的暴跌,也可能过度悲观
现金有时是最好的筹码:当市场普遍面临资金吃紧时,不管你是风险资产还是避险黄金,都可能被无差别抛售以回笼现金。真正具备避险属性的是现金及高流动性资产
在方向不明朗时,持有现金,耐心等待机会,比盲目冲进去接飞刀要聪明。
关注更长期的逻辑:短期波动再剧烈,也不能完全否定加密资产的长期叙事。机构化、合规化仍是关键,未来需要关注ETF资金的恢复情况、全球监管政策的明朗化以及实际应用需求的渗透
今晚21:30,不要只看一个数字。要看这个数字如何撕裂市场的共识,如何为接下来至少一个月的交易定下残酷的基调。
系好安全带,这不再是鲍威尔的独角戏,这是多空双方在微观数据上的绞杀战。在“数据依赖”的猜谜游戏中,任何一个意外都可能成为压垮骆驼的最后一根稻草。对于早已炒作过度的行情而言,任何反抽,都是上帝赐予的逃顶或布局机会。
币圈没有神仙,只有能看懂信号、保持冷静的聪明人。关注我,每天分享实用策略,我们一起在风浪里找方向。#加密市场反弹 #美联储降息 $ETH
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From 0 to Freedom: A Veteran's Survival RulesIn 2017, when I entered the industry with a few thousand U, the chat room of the exchange was always repeating two words: all-in, recoup. Watching people around me gamble their entire fortune, I thought—true winners are never the craziest at the poker table. Five years later, my account curve looks like a dull knife cutting a cake, steadily going up. No insider information, no chasing celebrity projects, not even bothering to look at K-line charts. I treat the market like a casino, but I want to be the house taking the cut. Today I will share my survival philosophy with you: 1. Locking in profits is more important than locking in competitors.

From 0 to Freedom: A Veteran's Survival Rules

In 2017, when I entered the industry with a few thousand U, the chat room of the exchange was always repeating two words: all-in, recoup. Watching people around me gamble their entire fortune, I thought—true winners are never the craziest at the poker table.
Five years later, my account curve looks like a dull knife cutting a cake, steadily going up. No insider information, no chasing celebrity projects, not even bothering to look at K-line charts. I treat the market like a casino, but I want to be the house taking the cut. Today I will share my survival philosophy with you:
1. Locking in profits is more important than locking in competitors.
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The latest macro signals have exploded! Coinbase's Bitcoin premium index has been in positive territory for 9 consecutive days, stabilizing at 0.0222%! This data is no joke; U.S. institutional funds are frantically buying up, and dollar liquidity is flooding into the market like a burst dam, with sentiment soaring! On-chain data shows that large wallets are accumulating, and exchanges are experiencing net outflows, all these hidden signals confirm that institutions are stealthily positioning themselves. On the news front, the compliance process is accelerating, and traditional giants are entering the market at an increasing pace. All of this points to one fact: the fuel for a bull market is fully prepared, and the explosion is imminent! I have always believed in the limitless potential of the crypto market, and I have repeatedly emphasized in the community, "Follow the institutions, and you won't worry about profits." Now this data is the strongest evidence for my analysis! My judgments have never been wrong—this market wave will definitely be historic! Fans, don't miss out on the era while waiting and watching! Keep up with my rhythm; I will share strategies in real-time in the community. Let's take off in the crypto world together; those who earn are the winners. Follow Xiang Ge to learn more first-hand information and precise points of cryptocurrency knowledge, become your guide in the crypto space, and learning is your greatest wealth! #加密市场反弹 #美联储降息 $ETH {future}(ETHUSDT)
The latest macro signals have exploded!

Coinbase's Bitcoin premium index has been in positive territory for 9 consecutive days, stabilizing at 0.0222%! This data is no joke; U.S. institutional funds are frantically buying up, and dollar liquidity is flooding into the market like a burst dam, with sentiment soaring!

On-chain data shows that large wallets are accumulating, and exchanges are experiencing net outflows, all these hidden signals confirm that institutions are stealthily positioning themselves. On the news front, the compliance process is accelerating, and traditional giants are entering the market at an increasing pace. All of this points to one fact: the fuel for a bull market is fully prepared, and the explosion is imminent!

I have always believed in the limitless potential of the crypto market, and I have repeatedly emphasized in the community, "Follow the institutions, and you won't worry about profits." Now this data is the strongest evidence for my analysis! My judgments have never been wrong—this market wave will definitely be historic!

Fans, don't miss out on the era while waiting and watching! Keep up with my rhythm; I will share strategies in real-time in the community. Let's take off in the crypto world together; those who earn are the winners.

Follow Xiang Ge to learn more first-hand information and precise points of cryptocurrency knowledge, become your guide in the crypto space, and learning is your greatest wealth!
#加密市场反弹 #美联储降息 $ETH
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Breakthrough! ZEC surges nearly 6% in a single day, with the next target aimed at $450!A strong bullish candlestick has broken the stagnant deadlock, with ZEC declaring in price language: the bulls have taken over the short-term market. At this moment, an exciting breakthrough market trend is unfolding before your screen. This real-time candlestick chart shows that the ZEC/USDT price has strongly risen above $417, with an opening price of $394.24 and an intraday increase of nearly 6%! As a cryptocurrency analyst closely monitoring the market, I see not just the price surge, but also the subtle reversal of the forces between bulls and bears. Let's dive into this real-time chart and interpret each key signal within it. 01 Intraday raid, key resistance turns into support

Breakthrough! ZEC surges nearly 6% in a single day, with the next target aimed at $450!

A strong bullish candlestick has broken the stagnant deadlock, with ZEC declaring in price language: the bulls have taken over the short-term market.
At this moment, an exciting breakthrough market trend is unfolding before your screen. This real-time candlestick chart shows that the ZEC/USDT price has strongly risen above $417, with an opening price of $394.24 and an intraday increase of nearly 6%!
As a cryptocurrency analyst closely monitoring the market, I see not just the price surge, but also the subtle reversal of the forces between bulls and bears. Let's dive into this real-time chart and interpret each key signal within it.
01 Intraday raid, key resistance turns into support
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Cryptocurrency Market's 65-Day Comeback: Survival Rules from 180,000 in Debt to a Million AccountRecently, a friend's experience has left me deeply moved. Six months ago, he was burdened with 180,000 in debt due to investment mistakes, tortured by collection calls every day, even considering running away. But just three months ago, he sent a screenshot saying his account balance had surpassed a million, with a caption saying "Now I can finally answer the phone normally." This reminds me of the market situation at the end of last year. At that time, many newcomers rushed in with a "quick money mindset" and ended up getting bloodied. That friend fell into this pit, trusting certain so-called "experts" recommendations, putting all his savings into a small project, and ended up losing money. At his lowest point, he couldn't even pay rent and spent every day staring blankly in his rented room.

Cryptocurrency Market's 65-Day Comeback: Survival Rules from 180,000 in Debt to a Million Account

Recently, a friend's experience has left me deeply moved. Six months ago, he was burdened with 180,000 in debt due to investment mistakes, tortured by collection calls every day, even considering running away. But just three months ago, he sent a screenshot saying his account balance had surpassed a million, with a caption saying "Now I can finally answer the phone normally."
This reminds me of the market situation at the end of last year. At that time, many newcomers rushed in with a "quick money mindset" and ended up getting bloodied. That friend fell into this pit, trusting certain so-called "experts" recommendations, putting all his savings into a small project, and ended up losing money. At his lowest point, he couldn't even pay rent and spent every day staring blankly in his rented room.
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From "Getting Rich Dream" to "Survival Technique": My Blood and Tears Trading RulesThree years ago, when I entered the market with 3000U, I never expected that my account would now have 460,000U remaining. But the 120,000U that was swallowed by the exchange still reminds me: the market rewards only those who can escape. Tail cutting survival technique: stop-loss is not a strategy, it is a survival instinct Before my first liquidation, I stubbornly held onto a 3% floating loss, fantasizing that "tomorrow will rebound". As a result, the leverage whipped my account like a whip, and I only awakened to reality when the liquidation SMS popped up - the market never lacks reversal opportunities, but the account might have already gone to zero. Now my operation is: write the stop-loss price before opening a position, cut the position when the time comes, and don’t even open the computer. Remember, you are not betting on the market, but on your right to survive.

From "Getting Rich Dream" to "Survival Technique": My Blood and Tears Trading Rules

Three years ago, when I entered the market with 3000U, I never expected that my account would now have 460,000U remaining. But the 120,000U that was swallowed by the exchange still reminds me: the market rewards only those who can escape.
Tail cutting survival technique: stop-loss is not a strategy, it is a survival instinct
Before my first liquidation, I stubbornly held onto a 3% floating loss, fantasizing that "tomorrow will rebound". As a result, the leverage whipped my account like a whip, and I only awakened to reality when the liquidation SMS popped up - the market never lacks reversal opportunities, but the account might have already gone to zero. Now my operation is: write the stop-loss price before opening a position, cut the position when the time comes, and don’t even open the computer. Remember, you are not betting on the market, but on your right to survive.
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The Three Lessons the Bloody History of the Crypto Market Taught MeLast spring, I threw my phone at the K-line chart of SOL. At that time, it had just risen from $0.3 to $1 and then plummeted. I felt like a mocked gambler, and my phone wallpaper still holds that screenshot of the crash—not to motivate myself, but every time I see that glaring green long shadow, it feels like fate slapped me in the face. I remember that time with ETH even worse, buying in at $1800, and just as it touched $2400, I hastily exited. The next day, the market directly hit 4000 points. I was crouched in the bathroom with an empty position, scrolling through my phone, suddenly realizing: the market's cruelty is never in price fluctuations, but in the precise harvesting of human weaknesses as prey.

The Three Lessons the Bloody History of the Crypto Market Taught Me

Last spring, I threw my phone at the K-line chart of SOL. At that time, it had just risen from $0.3 to $1 and then plummeted. I felt like a mocked gambler, and my phone wallpaper still holds that screenshot of the crash—not to motivate myself, but every time I see that glaring green long shadow, it feels like fate slapped me in the face.
I remember that time with ETH even worse, buying in at $1800, and just as it touched $2400, I hastily exited. The next day, the market directly hit 4000 points. I was crouched in the bathroom with an empty position, scrolling through my phone, suddenly realizing: the market's cruelty is never in price fluctuations, but in the precise harvesting of human weaknesses as prey.
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When 1000U Turns into Ten Stop-Loss CardsYesterday in the break room, I overheard a conversation between two newbies that reminded me of myself five years ago. They were debating whether "small funds can play with digital assets". I chuckled and tossed two sugar cubes into my coffee cup—just like each order I throw into my account, the sweetness always has to be swallowed with bitterness afterwards. Lesson One: Slice the account like a scalpel Don't treat that string of numbers as principal; it's ten entry tickets to the market. Each ticket is 100U with 20x leverage, like dancing ballet on the tip of a knife. Remember, each mistake can at most hurt 20%, but you need to keep the remaining 900U as steadfast as a bulletproof vest. It's like applying a screen protector to your phone—if it breaks, it hurts, but not applying it hurts even more.

When 1000U Turns into Ten Stop-Loss Cards

Yesterday in the break room, I overheard a conversation between two newbies that reminded me of myself five years ago. They were debating whether "small funds can play with digital assets". I chuckled and tossed two sugar cubes into my coffee cup—just like each order I throw into my account, the sweetness always has to be swallowed with bitterness afterwards.
Lesson One: Slice the account like a scalpel
Don't treat that string of numbers as principal; it's ten entry tickets to the market. Each ticket is 100U with 20x leverage, like dancing ballet on the tip of a knife. Remember, each mistake can at most hurt 20%, but you need to keep the remaining 900U as steadfast as a bulletproof vest. It's like applying a screen protector to your phone—if it breaks, it hurts, but not applying it hurts even more.
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On the night of the midnight liquidation, I licked my wounds and realized 9 survival rulesThe market won’t reason with you; it only talks in probabilities. Those who survive have all died once. The glow of the phone screen cast on my face in the darkness, on that deep night in 2017, I watched as the long shadow of 12% on the asset chart fell like a guillotine, evaporating 70% of the principal in just 15 minutes. In that moment, the phone was as hot as a glowing iron, and I could only sit there in a daze, listening to the sound of my own heartbeat. Eight years have passed, and that night is etched in my bones. Later, I locked myself in a small dark room and wrote 186 items on my 'death list'—recording all the fatal mistakes I had made. Then I revised them one by one, ultimately refining them into 9 survival rules. These rules helped me survive through the subsequent bull and bear transitions, and today I share them with you.

On the night of the midnight liquidation, I licked my wounds and realized 9 survival rules

The market won’t reason with you; it only talks in probabilities. Those who survive have all died once.
The glow of the phone screen cast on my face in the darkness, on that deep night in 2017, I watched as the long shadow of 12% on the asset chart fell like a guillotine, evaporating 70% of the principal in just 15 minutes. In that moment, the phone was as hot as a glowing iron, and I could only sit there in a daze, listening to the sound of my own heartbeat.
Eight years have passed, and that night is etched in my bones. Later, I locked myself in a small dark room and wrote 186 items on my 'death list'—recording all the fatal mistakes I had made. Then I revised them one by one, ultimately refining them into 9 survival rules. These rules helped me survive through the subsequent bull and bear transitions, and today I share them with you.
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3000U to 80,000U, can we turn things around in half a year? First, I ask you, are you afraid of death?Cowardice is the hardest spark in the contract market 1. Opening: Only those who fear death are qualified to talk about turning things around When he came to find me, there were 3000U neatly lying in the account, surrounded by the ruins of liquidation. Others laughed at him for being 'cowardly', afraid to go all in and buy the dip, but I saw this 'fear of death' at a glance — the market specializes in punishing the defiant, but always leaves a window for those who fear death. I established three iron rules: Daily limit of one order, position ≤15%: close the position immediately with a profit of 2%-4%, refuse to give back profits. Stop loss before opening a position: set the stop loss before entering the market, and never chase after profits once in the green. Emotional diary 500 words: record heartbeats rather than K-lines, to combat decision fatigue.

3000U to 80,000U, can we turn things around in half a year? First, I ask you, are you afraid of death?

Cowardice is the hardest spark in the contract market
1. Opening: Only those who fear death are qualified to talk about turning things around
When he came to find me, there were 3000U neatly lying in the account, surrounded by the ruins of liquidation. Others laughed at him for being 'cowardly', afraid to go all in and buy the dip, but I saw this 'fear of death' at a glance — the market specializes in punishing the defiant, but always leaves a window for those who fear death.
I established three iron rules:
Daily limit of one order, position ≤15%: close the position immediately with a profit of 2%-4%, refuse to give back profits.
Stop loss before opening a position: set the stop loss before entering the market, and never chase after profits once in the green.
Emotional diary 500 words: record heartbeats rather than K-lines, to combat decision fatigue.
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Brothers, just finished analyzing the latest macroeconomic bomb! The Federal Reserve voted 9 to 3 to cut interest rates by 25 basis points, but the dot plot indicates only one rate cut in 2026, which is more hawkish than market expectations. This clearly shows they are playing 'boiling a frog in warm water'; the shadow of tightening liquidity is looming again! Macroeconomic uncertainty is soaring, and in the short term, the market will definitely shake a bit, but I said it before: don't panic, on-chain data has already leaked the script! Looking at the on-chain data: Bitcoin exchange outflows have increased for three consecutive days, large holding addresses are quietly accumulating, and the subtle changes in capital flow indicate that smart money has not run away; they are just waiting for this wave of panic selling. Last week, I hinted in the community that 'capital is flowing quietly, and when macroeconomic negatives are exhausted, it's a buying point.' Now, the Federal Reserve's hawkish statement only confirms my judgment; under the trend of economic cooling, interest rate hikes have become a thing of the past. Although the interest rate cut cycle is slow, it will definitely come, and the long-term narrative of the crypto market has not changed at all! Short-term volatility? Inevitable! But my emotion is just one word: excited! A pullback is just a question with a guaranteed score; hold your chips steady and don't be washed out by the noise. Remember, the truly top traders are always greedy when others are fearful. Follow me, and I'll take you through the bulls and bears! #加密市场反弹 #美联储降息 $ETH {future}(ETHUSDT)
Brothers, just finished analyzing the latest macroeconomic bomb! The Federal Reserve voted 9 to 3 to cut interest rates by 25 basis points, but the dot plot indicates only one rate cut in 2026, which is more hawkish than market expectations. This clearly shows they are playing 'boiling a frog in warm water'; the shadow of tightening liquidity is looming again! Macroeconomic uncertainty is soaring, and in the short term, the market will definitely shake a bit, but I said it before: don't panic, on-chain data has already leaked the script!

Looking at the on-chain data: Bitcoin exchange outflows have increased for three consecutive days, large holding addresses are quietly accumulating, and the subtle changes in capital flow indicate that smart money has not run away; they are just waiting for this wave of panic selling. Last week, I hinted in the community that 'capital is flowing quietly, and when macroeconomic negatives are exhausted, it's a buying point.' Now, the Federal Reserve's hawkish statement only confirms my judgment; under the trend of economic cooling, interest rate hikes have become a thing of the past. Although the interest rate cut cycle is slow, it will definitely come, and the long-term narrative of the crypto market has not changed at all!

Short-term volatility? Inevitable! But my emotion is just one word: excited! A pullback is just a question with a guaranteed score; hold your chips steady and don't be washed out by the noise. Remember, the truly top traders are always greedy when others are fearful. Follow me, and I'll take you through the bulls and bears!
#加密市场反弹 #美联储降息 $ETH
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ETH 1-hour K-line chart just updated, this trend is simply writing a bear script! As an experienced trader, I must emphasize today: my analysis will never be wrong, the bearish trend is locked in, and don't get tempted to bottom fish! Technical impact: The Bollinger band is breaking downwards, and the price is drilling down along the lower track (around 3196), which is clearly a signal of accelerated decline! The MACD green bars continue to expand (currently -47.08), indicating that the bearish momentum is still strengthening. Closing at 3188, unable to stabilize even at the lower track, if the key level of 3200 cannot be reclaimed today, ETH is likely to head straight for 3150 or even lower. Those who expect a rebound, wake up! In the face of a trend, any small rebound is a trap to lure buyers! On-chain data support: Although not detailed in the chart, the on-chain data I monitor shows that major addresses are continuously reducing their holdings, and the influx to exchanges is increasing, indicating that selling pressure has not been fully released. The funding rate has turned negative, and market sentiment is pessimistic, which resonates perfectly with the technical analysis! Cold winds in news: Recently, there are no favorable stimuli, and the macro level is also watching. Without a catalyst, can ETH stage a comeback? It’s increasingly difficult! The market now is like an engine without fuel, it can only slide downwards. My opinion: I am firmly bearish! I started warning about the risks last week, and now with triple confirmation from technical, on-chain, and news aspects, my analytical strength can withstand the test! Don’t tell me “it has dropped a lot, it should rebound”, in the face of a trend, being emotional will only lead to losses. I’ll keep it simple: stay calm, because everything is within expectation! Trading reminder: Control your hands! Don’t blindly bottom fish! Short-term players should continue to observe and wait for the price to stabilize above 3200 before making decisions; medium to long-term positions can wait for deeper bottom signals. The market doesn’t lack opportunities, it lacks patience! Trust my judgment, friends, like and share to avoid this wave of decline together! Follow me, and I will guide you to precise bottom fishing in the future! #加密市场反弹 #美联储降息 $ETH {future}(ETHUSDT)
ETH 1-hour K-line chart just updated, this trend is simply writing a bear script! As an experienced trader, I must emphasize today: my analysis will never be wrong, the bearish trend is locked in, and don't get tempted to bottom fish!

Technical impact:
The Bollinger band is breaking downwards, and the price is drilling down along the lower track (around 3196), which is clearly a signal of accelerated decline! The MACD green bars continue to expand (currently -47.08), indicating that the bearish momentum is still strengthening. Closing at 3188, unable to stabilize even at the lower track, if the key level of 3200 cannot be reclaimed today, ETH is likely to head straight for 3150 or even lower. Those who expect a rebound, wake up! In the face of a trend, any small rebound is a trap to lure buyers!

On-chain data support:
Although not detailed in the chart, the on-chain data I monitor shows that major addresses are continuously reducing their holdings, and the influx to exchanges is increasing, indicating that selling pressure has not been fully released. The funding rate has turned negative, and market sentiment is pessimistic, which resonates perfectly with the technical analysis!

Cold winds in news:
Recently, there are no favorable stimuli, and the macro level is also watching. Without a catalyst, can ETH stage a comeback? It’s increasingly difficult! The market now is like an engine without fuel, it can only slide downwards.

My opinion:
I am firmly bearish! I started warning about the risks last week, and now with triple confirmation from technical, on-chain, and news aspects, my analytical strength can withstand the test! Don’t tell me “it has dropped a lot, it should rebound”, in the face of a trend, being emotional will only lead to losses. I’ll keep it simple: stay calm, because everything is within expectation!

Trading reminder:
Control your hands! Don’t blindly bottom fish! Short-term players should continue to observe and wait for the price to stabilize above 3200 before making decisions; medium to long-term positions can wait for deeper bottom signals. The market doesn’t lack opportunities, it lacks patience!

Trust my judgment, friends, like and share to avoid this wave of decline together! Follow me, and I will guide you to precise bottom fishing in the future!

#加密市场反弹 #美联储降息 $ETH
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Starting with 1000U, conservatively doubling in 30 days: my practical notes on steady progress.First preserve your life, then seek to earn; slow is fast. Staying up late to watch the market, the K-line on the screen fluctuates like a heartbeat. I recall that student who started with 1000U and doubled his funds in 30 days—he was not a trading genius, but he strictly executed six simple actions. Today, I won't talk about esotericism or make grand promises; I will share this system that allows beginners to stabilize their mindset and achieve steady growth. First step: learn to preserve your life, then consider making money. When there is only 1000U in the account, you can't afford any unexpected event. I set a strict rule for myself: the maximum amount to use for the first order is 200U, and the maximum loss must not exceed 50U. This is not cowardice, but a basic respect for the market.

Starting with 1000U, conservatively doubling in 30 days: my practical notes on steady progress.

First preserve your life, then seek to earn; slow is fast.
Staying up late to watch the market, the K-line on the screen fluctuates like a heartbeat. I recall that student who started with 1000U and doubled his funds in 30 days—he was not a trading genius, but he strictly executed six simple actions.
Today, I won't talk about esotericism or make grand promises; I will share this system that allows beginners to stabilize their mindset and achieve steady growth.
First step: learn to preserve your life, then consider making money.
When there is only 1000U in the account, you can't afford any unexpected event. I set a strict rule for myself: the maximum amount to use for the first order is 200U, and the maximum loss must not exceed 50U. This is not cowardice, but a basic respect for the market.
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The Awakening Journey from 'Leek' to 'Fool'When I first entered the crypto world, I was like most people—staring at the K-line and staying up all night until dawn, welding the 'get rich dream' in my mind. What happened? The initial capital of 5000U was reduced to nothing by various 'teachers' in the first month, and switching groups was more frequent than changing socks. Later, I learned to study technical indicators, covering my screen with MACD and Bollinger Bands, but my eyes turned green while my account stayed the same. The most surreal part was setting an alarm in the middle of the night to grab the whitelist for a shitcoin, only to wake up and find the coin price at zero, with nothing left but a string of 0s to witness the absurdity of life. At that time, I cursed the dealer harshly and called the project party dogs. Later, looking in the mirror, I realized: the biggest joke is on myself. Treating luck as strength and FOMO as faith, those who lose their minds at the gambling table will never earn that share of money from the dealer.

The Awakening Journey from 'Leek' to 'Fool'

When I first entered the crypto world, I was like most people—staring at the K-line and staying up all night until dawn, welding the 'get rich dream' in my mind. What happened? The initial capital of 5000U was reduced to nothing by various 'teachers' in the first month, and switching groups was more frequent than changing socks. Later, I learned to study technical indicators, covering my screen with MACD and Bollinger Bands, but my eyes turned green while my account stayed the same. The most surreal part was setting an alarm in the middle of the night to grab the whitelist for a shitcoin, only to wake up and find the coin price at zero, with nothing left but a string of 0s to witness the absurdity of life.
At that time, I cursed the dealer harshly and called the project party dogs. Later, looking in the mirror, I realized: the biggest joke is on myself. Treating luck as strength and FOMO as faith, those who lose their minds at the gambling table will never earn that share of money from the dealer.
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