刘三炮

Early this morning, I almost got liquidated by Trump’s epic Operation Fury. These moves that escalate geopolitical conflicts keep happening—doesn’t Trump worry about the economy blowing up?

Looking at it from this perspective now, whether the fighting gradually dies down or the conflict ends completely, it will definitely take investment in the short term and put pressure on the economy. But in the long run, it addresses the risks in the Middle East and the longstanding problem of tight crude oil supplies.

So if Trump’s decisive strike works, it’s more useful than talking tough every day.

Iran was so sure the conflict couldn’t escalate that it kept acting up. If this were World War II, Roosevelt would’ve approved the atomic bomb—Truman wouldn’t even have had to use it. Iran would already be history.

Crude oil is a global energy source, and energy-driven inflation is a major issue. To solve the problem at its root, Trump has done one good thing.

Crude oil peaked at 105. I’ve said over and over that I wanted to short it. I went long at 99 and got out at 103. Now I’m holding a crude oil short from 103.

Bitcoin has once again shown that, for now, it’s a short-only market—no longs.
You can short at 84,000.
You can short at 84,500.
At 85,000, you can short even more.

As long as crude oil hasn’t stayed below 98 for a full day,
if Bitcoin rebounds above 83,000, get ready to short it at higher levels.

As long as crude oil keeps inflation high, Bitcoin and U.S. stocks won’t be able to attract investment capital, and ETF net inflows won’t surge.

Bitcoin: Who’s got some spare funds? Help me break through the ceiling! They say a tight trading range leads to a big one-way move—trust me, BTC

I’m really out of ideas. BTC truly has no independent price action right now.
It’s completely at the mercy of oil and U.S. stocks.

Oil is also trading sideways near $101 today.
It hasn’t broken out to the upside or fallen sharply, so inflation expectations haven’t changed.

U.S. stocks have had a bit of an oversold bounce,
but it’s just sellers buying back in—there’s no fresh money coming into the market.

Next week is Fed rate-decision week.
The Fed will be somewhat dovish this time, but it definitely won’t mention rate cuts. So the bounce probably won’t go very far; the main strategy is still to sell rallies.

Short, short, short. Don’t go long next week! Don’t go long! Focus on shorting the bounces!
Unless oil drops below 95,
unless Iran stops attacking ships and lets them pass,
unless Russia and Saudi Arabia sell more oil,
unless the Houthis stop causing trouble—

don’t go long on Bitcoin!
Short at 84,000.
Short at 84,500.
At 85,000, definitely short.

In just three days, with a single review, Tim turned the entire iPhone market upside down—and completely changed how people overseas see things. So this is what a tech reviewer is supposed to be? And Chinese viewers have been watching videos this good all along?

Before going international, Tim had never broken out of his niche. He was always a creator active in tech and gadgets.

There are plenty of creators making videos this good in China. Content from overseas creators is still pretty padded. Don’t nitpick us content creators—we’re incredibly detail-oriented!

With this trend, is crude oil really not going to break above 101?

I don't even need to say it. The long position I told everyone to open in crude oil at $99 will definitely hit take-profit at $103. If crude oil doesn't hit take-profit in this trend, I'll write the name Liu Sanpao upside down.

The 4-hour chart clearly shows a bullish alignment.
All three moving averages are turning upward, and the price is steadily climbing along them.
The real resistance is around the previous high of 106.98. At 103, we're right in the middle of the rally, and the current geopolitical risk premium is more than enough to push prices there.

Oil still has geopolitical risk premiums supporting it. The U.S. military is evacuating personnel and sending in more warships, keeping a close watch; Houthi militants are carrying out attacks near Saudi Arabia; and Iran is acting as the gatekeeper in the Strait of Hormuz. Every step is adding fuel to crude oil's rally. It's bound to rise.

My plan hasn't changed: close the crude oil longs at 103, go short, then we'll all go long on Bitcoin.

Unitree Toy Factory is up 20% today. Is this really tradable? It feels like a joke.

Those of you who went long, don’t get too attached to Unitree. Stocks on the STAR Market can swing 20% in a day: when sentiment heats up, they rise fast, and when it cools off, they fall even faster. Just a few days ago it was making new lows, and this week it’s surged more than 40%. A reversal can happen in the blink of an eye.

“Toy factory” isn’t just a nickname—humanoid robots really have no practical applications yet.

If this crude oil short position gets liquidated, I reckon the price won't just rise to 102.85. If it gets liquidated over the weekend, the price will probably go even higher.

The position is worth $12.63 million, with an entry price of $96.70 and a liquidation price of $102.85. With oil currently at $100.82, it only needs to rise another 2% to reach the liquidation price.

Crude oil is seriously impressive—it’s already climbed to 100, and there’s still room to rise. I’m holding a long CL position at 99. When should I get out?

The five key factors currently driving crude oil prices higher

1. Geopolitical conflict in the Middle East, accounting for 40% of the impact. The main factors are four Houthi attacks inside Saudi Arabia and disruptions to shipping routes through the Strait of Hormuz. These have caused transportation costs to skyrocket, pushing crude prices higher. The solution would be for Trump not to launch a large-scale operation, Iran not to block the shipping lanes, and the conflict to remain limited to skirmishes. Crude oil would then fall back to $90.

2. High crude transportation costs, accounting for 30% of the impact. Crude is scarce, global inventories are declining, and Saudi Arabia and Russia are actively cutting supply. This has kept the floor under crude prices rising. I estimate it’s now around $80–90.

3. The high costs caused by high oil prices and high interest rates are squeezing consumers’ purchasing power, accounting for 15% of the impact.

4. Crude oil is priced in U.S. dollars, and their prices move in opposite directions, so Federal Reserve policy is crucial. The Fed’s October rate decision was more dovish than hawkish, weakening the dollar and helping crude strengthen. This accounts for 10% of the impact.

5. Global risks are high right now, so crude is carrying a substantial risk premium. That’s also led to a lot of buying in crude, amplifying its gains. This accounts for 5% of the impact.

The key factors are Iran refusing to back down, Trump feeling uneasy, Houthi attacks, Saudi Arabia and Russia withholding oil, and everyone’s inventories running low. That’s what can push prices to 100—but this is also a critical threshold.

Crude oil will suppress consumption and squeeze people’s ability to afford basic necessities. But prices above 100 put people on the brink of survival; above 105–110, it becomes nearly impossible to get by. Once crude reaches a certain price, the market will naturally break down.

So I plan to close my CL oil position at 103, then open a short CL position in the opposite direction, while going long on Bitcoin. I’m comfortable holding positions based on both of these ideas—they’re very safe.

Breaking! Saudi Arabia’s Ministry of Defense and oil facilities have come under attack again. Oil prices are set to rise with another risk premium, and the panic continues!

The Houthis really are Iran’s southern expeditionary generals, causing Saudi Arabia headaches day after day from the ground up.

Iran can stand up to Trump so brazenly, the Strait of Hormuz remains restricted, and oil prices have stayed high all year. The global economic downturn has a lot to do with its key player: the Houthis.

Over the past 48 hours, the Houthis have carried out four military operations inside Saudi Arabia, using missiles and drones to target the Saudi Ministry of Defense building, King Fahd International Airport, Saudi Aramco, and Abha International Airport. I think Trump should launch an airstrike against this group. That would pull Iran’s teeth—let’s see if it dares to disobey then.

Now the panic has spread entirely to the interest rate market. As I just mentioned, U.S. Treasuries are being snapped up like crazy, sending Treasury yields plunging.

Hurry up and take out those people in Yemen, bring oil prices back into balance, and send Bitcoin into a bargain-basement fire sale.

10.23 Bitcoin’s bearish move is about to fail again. What did the dollar and Treasury yields catch wind of that made them fall?

I. I think there are probably two main reasons behind the drop in the dollar and Treasury yields.

1. Global AI stocks took a beating yesterday. Most individual stocks fell nearly 10%, and the Nasdaq dropped 2.6%. Everyone is worried that returns on AI investment won’t be sufficient, and that high oil prices will weigh on the global economy. As a result, money flowed out of U.S. stocks and into Treasuries, while the yen remained stable.

Rising oil prices and excessive inflation, combined with safe-haven demand, led to concentrated buying of Treasuries, pushing Treasury yields down.

2. The Fed is leaning dovish again. Warsh’s latest public remarks showed no hawkish signals at all. He repeatedly said to watch the data and keep watching the data. The odds of a rate hike in October are now very low, signaling that there’s no rush to raise rates. Bulls betting on high rates and a strong dollar are also closing positions in force, and the dollar index has started to retreat after breaking above 102.

II. My view: the Fed’s direction hasn’t changed.

1. This doesn’t mean the Fed is going to cut rates, and there’s no monetary easing or liquidity injection underway. That’s not going to happen. Oil prices are holding above $100, the conflict around the Strait of Hormuz is escalating, and energy-driven inflation remains a factor.

2. With inflation high and interest rates elevated, Bitcoin and U.S. stocks are tied together. Bitcoin is moving against oil, which is why BTC still hasn’t made a convincing break above the key resistance at 84,000 and is starting to look a little short on momentum.

3. The short setup at 84,000 still holds. Every time the price moves above 84,000, opening a short is very worthwhile. Target: 81,800.

Just like our long entries at 81,000–81,300, which are now sitting on 500–800 points of profit, with a target of 82,900.

BlackRock is definitely a bull-market powerhouse: it plays dead when it’s time to sell, but is always first in line when buying.

I kept saying 81,000–81,300 over and over—is that you memorizing my entry level or what?

You just wouldn’t let me get into a long.

It dropped all the way to 81,335. One little shove and it was there. So annoying—I missed a sweet long on the low-level bounce just like that. Fuck.

Uh-oh, everyone’s calling for Bitcoin to drop to 80,000. Can it really fall that far? The widespread bearishness and calls for 80,000 are mainly due to the Middle East.

1. The U.S. has withdrawn its own personnel from the Middle East and sent warships there. Crude oil had already rebounded to $99, and now there’s fresh news of an attack near the strait. The U.S. is also making a big show of threatening Iran. As long as oil prices remain unstable, the shadow of energy-driven inflation won’t go away.

2. Everyone’s now thinking about where to buy the dip. After this drop to 80,000, will Bitcoin keep falling? Before we get to that, a quick note about yesterday’s rise: the spike to 84,800 was driven by a buildup of short liquidations and fresh spot-market buying. But all of that was sold off today. It’s unclear what was behind that move, but the result is that the rally has lost steam.

3. With no upward momentum, we’re left looking at bearish factors. Iran and the U.S. are currently in a period of tension, but no direct conflict has erupted, so the geopolitical downside is limited. The main bearish factor is oil. High inflation has kept the world in a high-interest-rate environment, but without excessive rate hikes, high rates are at a tipping point under intense pressure, maintaining a delicate balance.

Bitcoin will only truly break below 80,000 if any one of the following conditions occurs:

1. Oil holds firmly above $100, the Fed signals a rate hike in December next week, and the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield stays above 5%.

2. U.S. stocks suffer a systemic crash, institutions reduce their positions, and Bitcoin is also sold off as capital is pulled out.

3. Bitcoin ETFs see net outflows of more than $1 billion in a single day.

Tonight, it looks like Bitcoin wants to drop but just can’t. Don’t chase shorts if it falls to 81,000—the 80,000 support is too close, making the risk-reward ratio very poor. If there’s no major sell-off during the U.S. session tonight, Bitcoin probably won’t fall much further. You could still look to enter a long around 81,000–81,300, with a stop-loss at 80,500, and see whether U.S. stocks open lower and then rise tonight.

With oil having risen so much, there’s bound to be fear and selling. But after a full day passes and people realize nothing has happened, the fear will ease, the risk premium will disappear, and they’ll buy back in.

The risks in the Middle East are draining money from crypto like crazy. When they go to war, it’s our money that takes the hit!!!

You’ve probably heard that the U.S. State Department ordered non-emergency diplomatic staff and their families stationed in Saudi Arabia to leave, right? Isn’t that an obvious warning to Iran? Iran has nothing to lose, so it’s ready to fight without holding back.

Oil prices rebounded in an instant: Brent crude rose to 112.5, and U.S. crude (CL) bounced back to 100.

Bitcoin panicked at the news and plunged 2.6%, which also more or less confirmed our bearish call at 84,300—it fell below 82,000. U.S. Treasuries are the only ones coasting to a win.

If it drops a little further, we’ll be getting ready to go long. Check today’s post for the specific levels.

Were they buying in batches throughout the day yesterday? Why doesn’t spot trading volume look that high either? There was no sharp spike.

But looking at spot ETFs, all the institutions are buying Bitcoin.

And since early this morning, it’s been selling off all day. Is it because the US military evacuated personnel and sent warships over to deal with Iran? Is the sentiment premium kicking in again?

Yesterday, Sanpao said crude oil would quickly surge to $100 a barrel and Bitcoin would fall below $82,000. At the time, Bitcoin was at $84,300 and crude oil was at $97.77. Now it looks like Sanpao’s predictions have all come true.

Crude oil has now reached $100, and Bitcoin is down to $82,200—just one last push away from dropping below $82,000.

A dip below $82,000 would be just right. I expect this drop to reach somewhere between $80,300 and $80,800 before rebounding, though I’m not sure the downward momentum will be that strong. So I’m adjusting the plan: look to enter long positions between $81,000 and $81,300.

Sanpao has always used a particular idea or asset as a directional indicator. This week, crude oil has been the benchmark, and it’s been incredibly useful—seriously NICE. The trade calls have all been spot on.

The young Iranian is still secretly stoking the flames of war, once again provoking the U.S. military.
This conflict is localized. Iran is targeting vessels involved in illegal oil transfers. No one knows whether the reports are true, but the Strait of Hormuz has not been fully blockaded, and crude oil supplies through the strait have not actually been disrupted.

Attacks on ships around the strait and the threat of mines can only break the deadlock in the geopolitical conflict and send oil prices gradually higher.

But what about next time? If Trump really resumes strikes, the emotional risk premium could be extremely high. CL crude could even break above $105.

10.22 Bitcoin’s short squeeze last night sent the price soaring to 84,800, nearly scaring the shorts out of their wits. It looked like a breakout, but it was actually a bearish divergence at the top, luring buyers in.

1. What’s driving the rise, and what’s just noise?
Three genuine drivers behind the rebound

1. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield has started to retreat from its highs, giving Bitcoin some breathing room.
2. Shorts were heavily liquidated and closed out, totaling $284 million, pushing the price up by force.
3. Yesterday’s U.S.-Russia-Ukraine trilateral peace talks eased fears.

But two bearish Damoclean swords are still hanging overhead:
First, crude oil is still expensive, meaning energy-driven inflation remains persistent.
Second, there has been no institutional inflow at all; spot ETFs have shown no activity.

Without any major bullish catalysts, resistance in the 84,000–85,000 range is enough to cap the market for now.
Bearish sentiment hasn’t been cleared, and the negative factors are still hanging overhead. Support at 80,700 has held firm.
So the 80,700–81,800 range is where the market is grinding out a base.

A rise doesn’t automatically mean the bull market is back. Keep an eye on the oil-price transmission chain: high crude prices → high inflation → Fed interest rates → bullish for the dollar and Treasury yields → bearish for Bitcoin and U.S. stocks.

Unless oil prices break decisively below $91, inflationary pressure won’t ease in any meaningful way, the Fed will have no reason to turn dovish, and BTC won’t be able to sustain a one-way rally.

Today’s plan: wait for a pullback before going long; don’t buy at the midpoint. If the price retraces into the 81,000–81,500 range, watch how well it holds before entering long positions in stages. Place the stop-loss below 80,300.

Two signals you must watch:
1. Can the 10-year Treasury yield stay below 4.8%? Only if it holds there can we say the pressure has eased.
2. Will crude oil surge back to $100? If it does, risk assets could tumble again.$BTC

So this whole Xiao Bo affair just ends without any real consequences?

They lose money hedging every day to attract traffic, then pull the “lobster and crab” scams, fleece people for millions, and just run off?

And the only consequence is getting their account banned and being unable to post or comment? The cost of committing a crime is that low? Aren’t people like this supposed to die?

The world’s most helpless foreign minister: Iran’s Foreign Minister, Araghchi

Araghchi: I don’t trust the Americans’ diplomatic posturing. They always go back on their word. So Iran will negotiate only if they give up the military option. But if you attack me, I’ll retaliate forcefully against military bases in the region. I don’t have any other choice.

Americans: Fine. Then I’ll have to evacuate people first—pulling out all the staff and their families from the surrounding area—and then send in the fleet. There’s nothing else I can do.

Mediator: Iran, give up your nuclear program. If you do, we’ll unfreeze your funds, pay you interest, and provide you with experts. Otherwise, you won’t have anything to eat. The Americans aren’t going to tell you they’re about to attack. If they really wanted to, they’d just launch air strikes and bomb you, like they did back then.

That said, oil production and transportation are still the biggest problems. With all sides deadlocked and unwilling to compromise, oil supplies still can’t get moving.

Yesterday, the EIA reported that U.S. crude inventories fell by 4 million barrels for the week. The oil shortage is painfully real. Bitcoin prices can’t seem to rise for now. Feel free to short crude at 103–105; for now, don’t short it around 98–99.

Crude oil is fucking surging—up past $100 a barrel.

The newly released U.S. crude inventory figures clearly show that supply is insufficient and demand is too high. Crude prices have to rise. I'm especially worried about U.S. crude inventories; CL is U.S. crude.

The U.S. Department of Energy is also pressuring refiners today to increase capacity, and wants to make up the shortfall with imported diesel to ease the pressure from rising crude prices.

Crude surging to $100 and Bitcoin under pressure, falling below $82,000—that's what we expected.