胜东趋势论

12.17凌晨比特币以太坊行情分析以及操作建议

当前盘面展现出清晰的偏多蓄力结构。四小时级别中，行情虽连续三次试探布林带中轨未果并进入回调，但价格始终紧贴中轨下方运行，说明多头并未放弃收复失地的意图。同时，K线阳柱实体下方普遍留有较长的下影线，凸显出下方支撑坚实有力，回调空间已被有效锁定。

转至一小时级别，价格在经历两连阳上攻后虽有所放缓，但回调幅度有限，整体反弹的延续性并未被破坏。目前行情已企稳于87000关键位置上方，且布林带中轨与上轨持续向上开口，这表明短期回调并非趋势反转信号，而更像是多头为突破重要阻力关口前的主动蓄力与整理。

综合来看，盘面在关键支撑区域表现出明显的抗跌性与反弹韧性，下方支撑经过多次试探已得到确认，向上突破的动能正在积累。因此，凌晨时段操作建议仍以低位布局多单为主，可密切关注回调至支撑区域后的企稳信号，把握多头再次发力的机会。

凌晨大饼可在86800附近多，目标看88500

凌晨以太可在2900附近多，目标看3000

#美国非农数据超预期 $BTC

From the current market observation, the coin price has shown signs of stabilization and rebound after touching the lower Bollinger Band on the daily chart, overall displaying a slight recovery trend. Although there is still some pressure above at the daily level, the Bollinger Bands are gradually narrowing, indicating that the market is in a consolidation phase. However, the support below has been preliminarily validated, providing a basis for a mild recovery of the bulls.

Turning to the 4-hour level, the coin price is currently under pressure from the middle Bollinger Band. If it can continue to consolidate and digest the resistance around the current position, there is hope for further upward testing in the future. Short-term focus should be on the pressure reaction near the 89000 level; if it can accompany a mild breakout with volume, the rebound space is expected to open further.

In a shorter timeframe, the 1-hour level has shown positive signals: the KDJ indicator has formed a golden cross above the 50 axis, the RSI is around 48.9 and shows a neutral to strong tendency, and the MACD has also formed a golden cross below the zero axis. Although the momentum appears mild, it indicates that market sentiment is gradually warming. The current price shows a slow upward posture, with limited retracement, indicating that there is certain buying support below.

In summary, the market has certain low long opportunities in the short term. It is recommended to consider light-position long layouts, pay attention to position control, and set stop-losses to respond with a short-term mindset, entering and exiting quickly to lock in profits. If the coin price can steadily hold key positions, the rebound trend is expected to continue. Please remain flexible and closely monitor changes in intraday momentum and the offensive and defensive situations at key price levels. #美国非农数据超预期 $BTC

12.16夜间比特币以太坊行情分析以及操作建议

当前市场已从前期的趋势性上涨阶段，逐渐转入更为稳固的区间整理格局。昨日盘中的回撤并非趋势转弱，而是对下方关键支撑区域一次有效的试探与确认——价格在快速测试后随即收复失地，验证了该区域具备扎实的承接力量。

从技术形态看，布林带逐步收口并趋于走平，正与当前的价格箱体形成共振，显示市场正处于一段多空力量趋于平衡、波动逐步收敛的蓄势阶段。这种形态往往是新一轮方向选择前的整理期，而随着支撑确认有效，市场整体结构仍保持着偏多基础。

操作上，短期内可重点把握区间下沿附近的布局机会。在支撑确认有效、波动收窄的背景下，回调接近箱体底部或是震荡结构中较好的多头介入时机。市场仍需时间震荡蓄力，但下方支撑已验证坚实，为后续走势奠定了偏多基调。

夜间大饼可在86500附近多，目标看88500

夜间以太可在2910附近多，目标看3000

#美国非农数据超预期 $BTC

12.16晚间比特币以太坊行情分析以及操作建议

在当前市场由冲高放量逐步转入区间拉锯的结构中，昨日的深度回撤并非趋势转折信号，而是对下方支撑有效性的有力确认。行情在短暂跌破关键支撑后迅速完成收复，凸显出低位承接力度强劲，市场内在韧性依然显著。布林带平口运行与当前箱体震荡格局高度契合，表明价格已进入阶段性整理阶段，下方支撑经过回踩验证后更为坚实，这为短期走势构筑了稳固的底盘。

整体来看，市场短期虽无明确单边趋势，但震荡结构中支撑确认、抛压快速消化的特征，反映出多头力量在区间下沿区域的防守意愿与反击能力。区间下沿附近企稳修复的走势，进一步强化了箱体内“回撤即机会”的结构逻辑。预计价格将在现有区间内延续整理，而每一次向下试探支撑后的反弹，都是市场夯实底部、积蓄后续动能的体现。在暂无突破性信号出现的环境下，于箱体下轨附近布局多单，符合当前震荡格局中高确定性的防守反击策略。

晚间大饼可在86800附近多，目标看88500

晚间以太可在2930附近多，目标看3020

#巨鲸动向 $BTC

12.16晚间比特币以太坊行情分析以及操作建议

在4小时周期上，比特币此前以一浪强劲的放量长阳突破前高，展现出多头的绝对动能。随后价格仅作小幅回撤，维持在高位进行窄幅震荡整理。K线呈现阴阳交替的横向盘整，盘中始终未见深度回调，这表明市场卖压有限，多头依然牢牢掌控盘面格局。当前的横盘整理可视作上升趋势中健康的中继蓄势阶段——既消化了短线获利盘，又未破坏整体上涨结构，趋势保持完好，为下一波上行奠定了坚实基础。预计整理结束后，价格有望积聚动能，再度向上发起冲击，挑战前高甚至打开新的上升空间。

在更精细的1小时周期内，价格持续紧贴布林带上轨横向运行，同时布林带通道逐步收窄，市场波动率显著收敛。这种形态通常意味着行情正处于蓄力整固的末端，多空力量暂时平衡但即将被打破，短期面临方向性选择的概率增大。结合整体趋势背景，向上突破的预期更为强烈。

操作上，建议延续顺势而为的做多思路。可重点关注下方关键支撑区域，若回踩确认有效，可考虑分批布局多单，耐心把握整理结束后大概率出现的上行突破机会。同时，务必做好仓位管理与风险控制，设置合理止损以应对市场潜在波动。整体来看，市场结构偏多，蓄势待发之际，值得保持关注并寻找低吸契机。

晚间大饼可在85800附近多，目标看87500

晚间以太可在2900附近多，目标看3000

#巨鲸动向 $BTC

12.16午后比特币以太坊行情分析以及操作建议

大饼当前技术结构呈现出典型的强势震荡整固特征。经历前期的健康回踩，价格在86000关键支撑区域展现出明显的抗跌韧性，缩量整理的K线形态表明市场浮动筹码已得到有效清理，抛压进入衰竭阶段。

值得关注的是，此次回调精准测试布林带下轨与中期上升趋势线构成的双重支撑，可视为对前期突破有效性的技术确认。虽然短期均线出现波动，但中长期均线系统依然保持完美的多头排列格局，上升通道的完整性未受破坏。

目前RSI指标在超卖区域的持续徘徊，正在积蓄强劲的技术反弹动能。市场通过这次深度洗盘，不仅消化了短期获利筹码，更为后续上行奠定了坚实基础。关键支撑位的企稳形态，配合整体多头趋势的延续，预计市场在完成筹码换手后，有望依托当前支撑区域重启上攻节奏。

当前阶段可理解为多头行情中的良性休整，震荡收敛的过程正是积蓄突破力量的关键时期。市场在重要技术位获得的支撑越坚实，后续爆发潜力往往越大。建议密切关注量能变化，一旦出现放量企稳信号，很可能会开启新一轮上升浪。

午后大饼可在86000附近多，目标看88000

午后以太可在2920附近多，目标看3020

#巨鲸动向 $BTC

12.16午间比特币以太坊行情分析以及操作建议

从当前盘面结构观察，四小时级别已走出经典的两阴包阳反转形态，显示市场情绪正从调整中逐步修复。价格重心沿着下方关键支撑稳步抬升，成交量呈现典型的堆量特征，资金入场信号较为明确。虽然MACD仍处于零轴下方，尚未形成金叉，但绿色动能柱已持续收敛，快慢线虽暂维持下行，却已显走平迹象，反映出空方力量逐步减弱，多方向上试探的意愿正在增强。中期走势结构依然稳固，整体上行趋势保持完好。

转入一小时级别观察，凌晨价格短暂下探并触及支撑后，行情逐步转为以碎阴碎阳交替为主的震荡上行节奏，表明市场短期进入蓄势整理阶段。尽管当前波动空间有所收窄，但价格结构始终保持稳健上移的姿态，回调幅度有限，下方承接力量持续存在，多头动能并未明显减弱。

综合来看，市场在关键位置获得支撑后，正以温和方式逐步积聚上行动能，中期趋势依然偏向乐观。因此，操作思路上仍可保持回调低多为主，关注整理后的方向延续。请注意风险管理，灵活应对盘面变化。

午间大饼可在85200附近多，目标看87000

午间以太可在2920附近多，目标看3020

#巨鲸动向 $BTC

12.16早间比特币以太坊行情分析以及操作建议

从当前四小时周期来看，大饼虽走出一根大阴线，价格触及布林带下轨，但这更多可视为前期快速上涨后的健康回调与蓄力过程。行情在触及下轨后跌势已明显放缓，空头动能并未进一步扩大，表明关键支撑区域正在发挥作用。小时级别上，虽然连续回调击穿短期支撑，但值得注意的是，当前价格已在86000一线重要支撑区域附近企稳，市场超卖情绪不断积累，技术性反弹的需求正显著增强。

价格在关键支撑位附近暂时受阻，恰恰为多头提供了良好的入场机会。各均线指标虽暂时呈向下发散，但在重要支撑区域，往往能够催生快速的修复性反弹。整体来看，行情仍处于中长期上升趋势中的震荡整理阶段，此次回踩下轨恰恰是释放短期压力、为下一轮上行夯实基础的过程。

因此，早盘操作可积极把握当前市场的技术性修复机会，以低多思路为主，捕捉价格在强支撑区域的反弹动能。待行情反抽确认并重新站稳后，市场有望重拾升势，届时可进一步观察趋势的延续性。当前节点，关键在于耐心等待企稳信号，利用回调布局，静待市场多头力量的再次凝聚。

早间大饼可在85800附近多，目标看87500

早间以太可在2940附近多，目标看3050

#巨鲸动向 $BTC

12.16凌晨比特币以太坊行情分析以及操作建议

周一行情如期演绎冲高回落，比特币在短暂试探89940高位后迅速承压，以太坊同样在触及3170后失去动能，双双回归跌势。市场已明确进入空头主导的调整周期，每一次反弹都显得脆弱而短暂，不过是下行趋势中的技术性修整。

当前盘面释放的信号非常清晰：多头乏力，底部结构尚未形成，任何向上的波动都难以形成持续性攻势。在整体趋势向下的环境下，反弹即是给予我们再次布局空单的时机。市场仍处于寻找支撑、蓄势下探的过程中，逆势抄底无异于接下坠之刃。

操作上务必保持清醒，坚持逢高做空的核心思路。不要被短暂的反弹所迷惑，趋势的力量远大于短暂的波动。耐心等待反弹乏力的信号，顺势介入才是当前行情下的稳健之选。市场仍在空头轨道中运行，在明确的转向信号出现之前，保持看空、做空，才是对趋势最大的尊重。

凌晨大饼可在86300附近空，目标看84500

凌晨以太可在2970附近空，目标看2880

#美联储降息 $BTC

12.16夜间比特币以太坊行情分析以及操作建议

当前盘面已出现多个明确的技术破位信号，整体结构由震荡转为下行趋势。关键支撑位宣告失守，意味着下方空间已被打开，空头动能开始主导盘面方向。价格已明显跌破布林带下轨，且在中轨下方持续运行，表明中轨已构成短期有效阻力，反弹力度偏弱。

目前市场已进入明确的回踩修整与蓄势阶段，整体空头趋势占主导地位。尽管过程中可能出现因超卖引发的技术性反弹，但大概率呈现“一步一回头”的迂回反复走势，反弹高度预计有限，且难以持续。在未出现明确底部结构或强势反转信号前，任何反弹均可视为空头趋势中的技术修复，操作上仍应以逢高承压、顺势偏空思路为主，避免盲目抄底。

夜间大饼可在86800附近空，目标看85000

夜间以太可在3000附近空，目标看2900

#美联储降息 $BTC

12.15晚间比特币以太坊行情分析以及操作建议

从当前四小时级别走势观察，市场已连续收出三根阳线，呈现稳健的震荡上行节奏，价格正逐步测试布林带中轨压力。虽然布林带整体呈现收窄迹象，显示行情仍处于蓄力整理阶段，尚未突破当前震荡区间，但下方支撑表现坚实，且近期回调低点逐步抬高，显示出市场重心正在温和上移。尽管中轨仍延续缓慢下移，但价格结构已逐渐显露出多头占优的韧性。

进一步观察一小时级别走势，行情在经历此前的阶段性深度回调后已逐步回暖，价格目前已回升至布林带上轨附近，反弹高点持续上移，走势呈现小碎阳连涨的震荡上行格局。这种逐步推进、低点抬高的结构，反映出市场买盘力量正在有序积聚，多头情绪逐步回暖。

整体来看，市场目前正处于阶段性整理周期，为后续趋势性突破积蓄动能。在当前位置，下方支撑明显，上行结构保持良好，短期盘面仍由多头主导。晚间操作上可继续延续顺势思路，建议关注关键支撑区域上方的企稳信号，适时布局多单，把握当前震荡上行中多头占优的交易机会。

晚间大饼可在89300附近多，目标看91000

晚间以太可在3130附近多，目标看3220

#巨鲸动向 $BTC

The current market structure clearly shows a healthy rhythm of trend accumulation. The four-hour level did not experience panic selling after the peak, but instead gently consolidated along the middle Bollinger band with a series of small bearish candles. This pattern is a typical healthy digestion of profit-taking in a bullish trend—the market gradually alleviates short-term pressure by exchanging time for space, releasing overbought momentum without disrupting the overall upward channel.

It is particularly noteworthy that the price has consistently relied on the middle band support during fluctuations, and the pullback magnitude is gradually converging, indicating a clear sign of exhaustion in bearish selling pressure. This often means that market sentiment is quietly shifting from indecisive fluctuations to bullish dominance, with each pullback during the session viewed as a technical adjustment in the continuation of the trend rather than a trend reversal.

Although the one-hour level has not yet effectively broken through the key resistance at 90000, the trend of "Mianyang upward" has indicated that buying pressure is steadily accumulating momentum. The price lows are gradually rising, showing strong support below, and the bulls have not retreated but are patiently building strength at the key level.

From an operational perspective, a bullish bias can be maintained:
If the price stabilizes above 90000 with volume, it can be seen as the start of a new offensive, allowing for follow-up positioning; if there is another short-term pullback to stabilize at the middle band or the previous low support area, it is also a good entry opportunity in the trend. Patience is required near key positions, with strict risk control. Overall, the market has gradually completed a bottoming phase, and the bullish pattern is expected to continue after this accumulation of strength. #美联储降息 $BTC

12.15午后比特币以太坊行情分析以及操作建议

四小时级别走势呈现出清晰的阶段性转换特征：价格在冲高后并未大幅回落，而是持续依托布林中轨下沿进行震荡整理。这一过程中，行情仅以连续小阴线展开温和修正，并未出现实质性深度回调，说明市场在短期消化压力的同时，整体仍维持在相对强势的调整区间。

从结构上看，该整理形态一方面体现了行情在连续上行后的技术性回踩需求，属于健康的趋势中继信号；另一方面，也进一步确认此前市场已完成由空转多的趋势切换。目前走势中，多头力量持续主导盘面，而空方抛压在反复震荡中已明显衰竭，市场重心稳固上移。

值得关注的是，尽管趋势已明确转向多头格局，仍有部分交易者受制于过去的空头思维，在逆势中执着于寻找做空机会。这种与市场主趋势相悖的操作逻辑，不仅容易错失趋势延续带来的盈利空间，也可能在行情再度拉升时面临被动局面。

因此，后续操作上应坚定以多头思路为核心，耐心等待行情在震荡中形成的短期回撤机会，依托下方有效支撑区域布局多单，顺应趋势方向把握下一阶段上行动能。市场已给出明确的方向信号，关键在于执行与坚守趋势跟踪的策略纪律。

午后大饼可在89400附近多，目标看91000

午后以太可在3120附近多，目标看3220

#加密市场反弹 $BTC

12.15 Afternoon Bitcoin and Ethereum Market Analysis and Trading Suggestions

On the daily level, Bitcoin has completed a correction with a solid bullish candle after a series of bearish retreats, with prices continuing to approach the mid-band area, indicating that bullish momentum is gradually strengthening. In the four-hour structure, the previous one-sided downward movement once broke through the lower support, but the K-line quickly recovered and produced a strong rally, with a single bullish candle almost swallowing the decline of the previous three bearish candles, showing considerable strength in the rebound. Meanwhile, the MACD indicator values have gradually returned to the neutral range, with the fast and slow lines completing three waves of consolidation at a low level, establishing a foundation for a trend reversal in the technical structure. Overall, the short-term bearish momentum in the market has weakened, and bullish forces are gathering for a counterattack, with the market expected to continue its rebound trend; therefore, it may be wise to consider buying on dips.

In the afternoon, Bitcoin can be bought around 88800, with a target of 90500.

In the afternoon, Ethereum can be bought around 3080, with a target of 3200.

#加密市场反弹 $BTC

4小时级别显示，价格已形成单边下行结构，布林带呈现开口形态，下行空间逐步打开，价格持续刷新近期低点，空头动能保持充沛，整体盘面弱势格局未改，趋势依旧偏向看空。

1小时级别进一步确认弱势格局，布林带三轨同步向下倾斜，市场买盘能力明显不足，空头氛围浓厚，预计行情存在进一步跌破近期低点的可能性。当前价格可能先行进行反弹修正，但反弹力度预计有限，后市仍有较大概率再度承压下行。

操作思路：

建议以反弹做空为主，关注反弹至关键阻力区域后，若出现滞涨或承压信号，可考虑布局空单，目标看至近期低点下方。

风险提示：

需注意行情反弹强度及关键支撑位的防守情况，若出现强势反弹并突破重要阻力，需及时调整思路。短线操作请控制仓位，严格设置止损。

#加密市场反弹 $BTC

12.15 Morning Analysis of Bitcoin and Ethereum Market Trends and Trading Suggestions

This week, the market ended abruptly amidst a dull range fluctuation. While alternating rises and falls are the norm, the current market shows a concerning lack of strength—though the bulls and bears seem to be battling frequently, the overall momentum is lacking, and each rebound appears to be weak and without follow-through.

Bitcoin has fallen from a high of 94500 to 87920, while Ethereum has slid from 3440 to 3040. Even the long-anticipated good news of "interest rate cuts" has failed to truly ignite sentiment. This is not merely a simple pullback or adjustment; it feels more like exhaustion after a depletion of momentum. The Victory East team strictly adheres to the principle of following the trend. During this dormant period of the current market, we need to proactively position ourselves and closely monitor the real market, so we can capture certain opportunities amidst the volatility.

From a technical structural perspective, the market is in a critical bottom consolidation phase, but the pressure is evident: the weekly level is under significant pressure, with pullback pressure continuously accumulating; the daily chart has shown three consecutive bearish candles, extending the bearish trend. Each brief rebound appears to lack sufficient volume, and the space for movement is extremely limited. This is more like a technical correction during a downtrend, rather than a signal of trend reversal. In summary, our core strategic layout is clear: rebound means shorting opportunities, and we will never blindly chase the long side.

In the morning, Bitcoin can be shorted near 88500, targeting 87000.

In the morning, Ethereum can be shorted near 3090, targeting 3000.

#美联储降息 $BTC

12.14凌晨比特币以太坊行情分析以及操作建议

当前市场仍处底部试探阶段，整体动能虽有微弱回暖迹象，但趋势未明，震荡修复格局下空头压力逐步显现。周线级别显示，前期瀑布式下跌后市场进入低位盘整，K线持续于布林带下轨附近徘徊，每次向上试探均未能有效突破关键压力位，反弹动力明显不足，上方连续出现的较长影线清晰表明抛压仍在不断释放，空头动能持续积累，回调风险进一步加深。

日线层面弱势更为突出，行情已连续收阴下行，价格自布林带上轨一路走低并穿透中轨支撑，空头趋势延续性得到强化，短期下跌节奏尚未放缓，仍有继续向下寻找支撑的可能。消息面上，尽管近期政策利好余温仍存，或推动市场出现技术性反弹，但上方压力明确，叠加量能不足、多头信心疲软，预计反弹力度有限、空间受制。

综合来看，市场整体结构仍偏空头主导，反弹承压、下探支撑的格局未改。后续操作上建议以反弹后逢高布局空单为主要思路，避免盲目追多，耐心等待价格反弹至关键阻力区域后再顺势介入空头。

凌晨大饼可在89500附近空，目标看87500

凌晨以太可在3090附近空，目标看2980

#加密市场反弹 $BTC

12.14凌晨比特币以太坊行情分析以及操作建议

当前震荡格局的持续收敛，正是趋势行情启动前关键的酝酿阶段。尽管价格仍在上方关键阻力位下方徘徊，但市场结构正展现出积极的蓄势信号：昨日1小时级别走势中，价格快速下探核心支撑区域时被低位密集买盘迅速托起，清晰表明下方承接力量依然坚实，空头未能击穿多头防线。此后行情转入窄幅整理，波动逐步收窄、量能温和收缩，这正是多空力量重新平衡、市场筹码充分换手的健康休整状态。

震荡从来不是行情的终点，而是新趋势的起点。目前盘面所呈现的碎K交替、波动收窄等特点，恰恰说明抛压正在被逐步消化，市场持筹心态趋于稳定。随着关键支撑区域被反复确认有效，下方基础不断夯实，量能也在震荡中悄然积累，这为后续向上突破积蓄了充足动能。在整理末端，往往也是市场情绪从分歧转向一致的关键节点。

凌晨大饼可在89600附近多，目标看91000

凌晨以太可在2980附近多，目标看3180

#加密市场反弹 $BTC

12.13凌晨比特币以太坊行情分析以及操作建议

当前市场正处于蓄势待发阶段。比特币在经历昨日回撤后，于关键支撑区域展现出明显韧性，买盘力量积极响应，成功承接市场抛压，行情已进入良性整理状态。当前1小时级别呈现窄幅波动，碎阳碎阴有序交替，多空力量处于动态平衡，这正是市场以时间换空间、酝酿下一轮趋势的典型信号。

横盘整理往往意味着方向选择临近，下方支撑的有效性已得到初步确认，市场情绪正逐步修复。在震荡中耐心等待，正是为后续行情蓄积力量。当前格局下，低多布局具备较好的风险收益比，建议保持冷静观察，静待市场放量确认信号。一旦整理结束，行情有望依托支撑展开新一轮向上动能。

此时不宜急于追涨杀跌，而应守好关键位置，在震荡中把握低吸机会。市场休整期恰是为下一阶段走势铺路，保持信心与耐心，趋势明朗后的布局将更具确定性。

凌晨大饼可在89500附近多，目标看91000

凌晨以太可在3090附近多，目标看3180

#加密市场反弹 $BTC

From the current market observation, although there is still adjustment pressure at the hourly level, the downward space has been effectively locked by key support areas. The lower range of 89300-87600 has gathered previous dense transactions and volume accumulation, forming a resonance support zone, which has a solid defensive foundation. If the market stabilizes in this range, combined with a decrease in volume or signs of resistance on the daily level, the rebound momentum is expected to gradually accumulate.

In addition, the trading rhythm of the market over the weekend tends to be calm, and it is expected that the trend will enter a range-bound consolidation phase in the short term. Once the lower support is confirmed, the price will have the momentum to repair to a higher level. In terms of operations, attention can be paid to the opportunities for phased layout when retracing to the support zone while maintaining reasonable position flexibility, patiently waiting for further clarification of the trend structure. Overall, the current pattern still leans towards positivity, and the momentum of consolidation is expected to continue.

In the early morning, Bitcoin can be bought near 89500, with a target of 91000.

In the early morning, Ethereum can be bought near 3040, with a target of 3120.

#加密市场反弹 $BTC