The A-share market is much cuter than the Hong Kong stock market. Look at how the A-share market's Alibaba Health concept has already gone crazy, while the most authentic entity remains unchanged [crying] $BNB $BTC $ETH
China's trillion-dollar surplus is in goods, while its service trade deficit is 180 billion dollars. Some transactions between multinational companies and local OEMs in China's free trade zones should not actually be counted as a surplus. More specifically, the 'current account surplus' over the past four quarters is 650 billion dollars.
For companies comparable to the American Seven Sisters, I can confirm 2.5: Huawei, ByteDance, Alibaba (0.5)... Are there any companies you can confirm? Feel free to add.
Today, the IC500 and IM1000 fell over 2%, which should be attributed to quantitative factors, also proving that the expectation of the policy to 'limit quantification' is taking effect. This can also explain why the market is performing so weakly. Given the current A-share market environment, dominated by the 'hunter mentality', hunters will not miss any extreme 'prey sentiment'. So how will they 'repair the road while secretly crossing the river' this time? This is worth our serious consideration. ——Thoughts while preparing the 2026 Hong Rong private sharing session PPT [允悲]
This weekend will hold the 2026 Hongrong Private Meeting. To be a bit selfish, if the market trend is weaker this week, I can be a bit bolder when speaking, which is easier to discuss [允悲] .
The stock price of gold stocks cannot keep up with the price of gold; The stock price of real estate stocks cannot keep up with housing prices; Can the stock price of securities companies outperform the stock market?
Will reducing export tax rebates affect our export competitiveness? In 2025: The total export tax rebate in the first 10 months reached 18121 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.9%; the export tax rebate in the first three quarters was 17018 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.6%.
In 2024: The total export tax rebate was 19281 billion yuan, an increase of 12.6% compared to the previous year.
Offense is the best defense; to stabilize the market, one must not only support but also uplift. The stock market is like this, and so is the real estate market.
The expectation for the market is that the policy will provide a floor, but in fact, the best expectation management is to have certain incremental policies, rather than possibilities. The policy not only provides a floor but will also pursue victory.
Possible scenarios for the future A-share market: The market may see a large number of 'zombie stocks' (extremely illiquid and ignored) and a few 'colluding corrupt stocks' (maintaining stock prices through false prosperity or benefit transfers). In such an environment, quantitative trading may become a tool to assist major funds in unloading stocks or manipulating the market, using algorithms to create false signals to lure remaining retail investors or opposing parties.