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#BTC巨鲸增持 #ETH巨鲸增持

Bulls begin to dominate, the 4-hour rebound is about to start!!!!
The Bitcoin and Ethereum have gone through 12 days, from 11.13 to today, finally breaking free from the 4-hour moving average suppression. In the early morning, a bullish candle broke upwards, welcoming a 4-hour level rebound cycle, with bulls taking the dominant role!
From the market perspective, after the Bitcoin daily bottom pattern, it continues to rise. The MACD is narrowing, stabilizing above the 5-day moving average, with resistance at the 10-day moving average of 89650, leaving room for further increase.
The 4-hour N-shaped structure breaks through the moving average, with bearish pressure turning into bullish support. The trend is clear and concise. This morning, the encounter with the 88900 resistance level and the downward adjustment is a normal fluctuation. The upward momentum remains good, with the bullish defense position at the bottom of 86500, which must not be breached, otherwise it may return to a bearish dominant market.
The 30-minute chart continues to rise, and after the drop, the bulls respond quickly to form a V-shaped structure, adjusting near the moving average and quickly pulling back. The bulls defended in time, but the surge was not fast and decisive enough, lacking in offensive strength.
Ethereum is even stronger. Yesterday, it closed directly near the 10-day moving average, facing pressure and continuing to pull back. If it can continue to rise slightly in the next two days, it can form a MACD golden cross on the daily chart, which will greatly help to revive the bulls' confidence.
A large bullish candle on the 4-hour chart directly breaks through to form a bullish arrangement of moving averages. The opening price of the large bullish candle at 2840 can be used as a defense position to layout 4-hour level long positions, aiming for the 3030 resistance level.
The upward momentum on the 30-minute chart is strong, with consecutive bullish candles breaking through, and trading volume expanding simultaneously. Currently, support is gained near the moving averages. Aggressive traders can directly enter long positions, betting on the price continuing to rise supported by the moving averages. #加密市场回调 #Ethereum

Bitcoin has reached the central pivot point for this year's upward trend, with bulls accumulating over the weekend, attempting to break through the 4-hour moving average resistance. Currently, both bulls and bears are engaged in fierce battles around key price levels, paying attention to the closing situation at the 4-hour level. The Bitcoin price has reached the central range of 78,800 to 88,800, while Ethereum is at the central range of 2,450 to 2,800, showing conditions for a rebound after a decline. Bullish funds are gradually increasing, and a short-term bottom is being formed, entering a wide-ranging volatile market. The strategy is to use patterns and divergence structures as entry signals for high shorts and low longs.
Looking at the market, Bitcoin's daily chart rose over the weekend, but the trading volume did not increase, indicating that the current bullish funds are not strong enough, belonging to the vanguard. It is highly likely that there will be further downward spikes before significant funds start to stabilize the market. The 4-hour level encountered bearish sell-offs near the moving averages, with both sides officially starting a direct confrontation. Significant volatility is expected tonight, so be cautious with your position sizes.
The 30-minute moving average shows a diverging bullish trend; consider going long at intraday lows, but think about shorting only after a top pattern or bearish divergence appears.
Ethereum's daily chart shows small candles with weak rebound momentum, and the bullish funds do not have a strong intention to push higher. The 4-hour chart is being suppressed near the moving averages, with a solid bullish candle appearing at noon. Bullish funds are showing signs of strength, and we should observe the closing situation at 4 PM. If a doji star forms near the moving averages and the closing is below 2,865, consider going short directly with a stop loss at 2,885. The price moved up to 2,855 in 30 minutes, with both sides contesting the bullish and bearish cycles at the 4-hour level, and there are signs of bullish pressure. It is prudent to wait for the moving averages to move down before entering a short position.
11.24【Lettuce】Noon Orders
BTCUSDT Long Order
Price: 84,800
Stop Loss: 83,800
Take Profit: 87,400
BTCUSDT Short Order
Price: 88,100
Stop Loss: 89,100
Take Profit: 86,500
ETHUSDT Long Order
Price: 2,777
Stop Loss: 2,747
Take Profit: 2,825—2,875—2,975
ETHUSDT Short Order
Price: 2,869
Stop Loss: 2,885
Take Profit: 2,815

Sudden data shock: CME's 'Federal Reserve Watch' latest shows that the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in December has risen to 48.9%, almost a fifty-fifty split with maintaining the interest rate (51.1%)—this is the first time this month that rate cut expectations have approached 'critical balance', directly triggering the 'interest rate-sensitive nerves' of the cryptocurrency market.

【Core Analysis】

1. The signal significance of the probability reversal:
Previously, the market had priced in a rate cut in December at less than 30%, and this rebound directly reflects two points: ① The 'weak marginal changes' in recent U.S. non-farm payrolls and inflation data (core PCE month-on-month growth rate slowing to 0.2%); ② The market's temperature rising regarding the 'Federal Reserve ending tightening early'. However, it should be noted that the current probability has not yet broken through 50%, which means that 'maintaining the interest rate' remains the baseline scenario, and the rate cut is considered a 'hawkish easing expectation'.

2. The transmission logic to the cryptocurrency market:

◦ Short-term: The warming of rate cut expectations will directly lower the real yield of U.S. Treasuries, enhancing the 'relative attractiveness' of risk assets (especially Bitcoin)—in the past 24 hours, BTC has rebounded above $46,000, and funds have started to bet in advance on 'liquidity easing expectations'.
◦ Long-term: If a rate cut does happen in December, it will break the previous pricing of 'the Federal Reserve maintaining high interest rates until 2026', and the 'macro liquidity shackles' of the cryptocurrency market will further loosen; but if the interest rate is maintained, the market may face a 'expected adjustment correction', and caution is needed around the support levels of $42,000-$43,000.
The current key contradiction is: Will the Federal Reserve turn early for 'weak marginal data', or continue to anchor on 'inflation targets'? This choice will directly determine whether the Q4 cryptocurrency market will experience an 'expectation-driven rebound' or 'reality-pressured fluctuations'.
For cryptocurrency traders, the optimal strategy right now is not to bet on direction, but to closely monitor these two key data points: 'November non-farm payrolls + core PCE'—they will directly push the rate cut probability toward 'one-sided'. Do you think BTC will start with a 7 after this wave of data lands? #BTC