Web3宸熙

Everyone can chat in my chatroom. Let's discuss and eat meat together!

Today's trading plan: ETH 2080-2090 short, stop-loss at 2100
2010-2020 long, stop-loss at 2000$ETH

Live stream preview: We’ll be live at 12 sharp!
Topic: Has the bad news been priced in and leverage wiped out? Is 72,700 the bottom, or just a pause before the next plunge?

After this dip and rebound, where will the market go from here?

Join us when we go live shortly to chat about the market and analyze what’s happening. If you have open positions and aren’t sure what to do next, come take a look!
$BTC

For now, the 30-day fear index has continued to hit new lows, so a short-term recovery wouldn’t be surprising.
$BTC

A quick word about market analysis:

The most frustrating thing about the market right now is that bad news keeps coming, but leverage has more or less been wiped out too. Bears lack fresh fuel to push prices lower, while bulls are waiting for spot-market buyers to step in and follow through. So at this stage, we’re most likely seeing repeated back-and-forth in the bottoming zone, trading time for space.

If you’re holding long positions, you could try to play a recovery once the bad news has run its course. But for now, this can only be viewed as a short-term recovery trade—unless a new factor emerges later and changes the balance.#BTC $BTC

Last night's CPI came in at 0.4% overall and 0.3% core—both above expectations. Most importantly, core inflation has been at 0.3% for three consecutive months. This isn't a one-off hot reading; food, housing, and services prices have continued to rise.

The market reaction was immediate: BTC plunged from 74,200 to 72,787.

This data means the market had previously priced in a 25-basis-point hike and then a pause, but now there's a possibility of a 50-basis-point hike. So it could affect what comes next, and counts as a new tail risk.

#cpi #BTC $BTC

Can the family make it to the other side? $BTC

Yesterday, our long trade paid off nicely. The profit wasn't much—just a few hundred points—but even a small profit is still a profit!

When we went long yesterday during the day, our entry point wasn't great. But I kept telling everyone that the closer we got to the new low, the better the risk-reward. Those who listened generally made money. Meanwhile, people in the livestream kept asking why we were going long there when the market clearly felt bearish. What I want to say is that trading isn't about making just one trade. Even if we get stopped out this time, it won't be the end of the world. Trading is a marathon. More importantly, stick to your own logic—and if you're wrong, own it and learn from it!

Congratulations to everyone who made a profit! And if you missed out, that's okay. Drop by the livestream often—you might catch the next opportunity!$BTC

CPI at 21:30 tonight: two key points.

1. There’s no year-over-year figure this time

Because of last year’s government shutdown, the Bureau of Labor Statistics didn’t have complete base-period data. Tonight, it will release only the month-over-month figure, not the year-over-year figure. The market has lost a familiar anchor, so the impact of a single monthly reading may be amplified—but the data are actually less complete. The consensus forecast for headline CPI is 0.3% month over month. There’s disagreement over core CPI: 0.2% or 0.3%. That’s the real dividing line tonight.

2. A rate hike is already a foregone conclusion; CPI won’t change the direction

After the nonfarm payrolls report, the probability of a rate hike in December was already around 80%. This morning, two Fed officials continued to strike a hawkish tone: Barkin said rates still need to rise, while Goolsbee spoke directly of “inflation getting out of control.” CPI won’t determine whether the Fed hikes; it will shape expectations about whether there’ll be another hike after this one. $BTC

Let's do a simple analysis. The sharp rally in U.S. stocks last night also lifted the Asian markets in South Korea and Japan today. The A-share market hasn't opened yet, but it's very likely to rise as well.

The main point is that the downward momentum in U.S. stocks during this tech- and AI-driven pullback has let up for now. We don't need to decide whether this is a reversal or just a rebound; let's treat it as a rebound for now.

And this is especially important for the crypto market. Once sentiment stabilizes, we can look forward to a short-term rebound.
$BTC
#美股超话 #btc

The broader market has recently been weighed down by a series of negative news events:
1. Crypto thefts (black swan events)
2. FOMC meeting (interest rates)
3. AI regulation (data centers)
4. Nonfarm payrolls data (interest rates)
5. NVIDIA cheating scandal (black swan event)
We’re the ones paying the price... But! Once the bad news has been priced in, we could see a nice rebound.
The light is just around the corner! $BTC

🔥Livestream preview: We’ll be live at 12 sharp!

Topic: After this deep V-shaped move, is a short squeeze about to reverse the trend, or are the big players just pushing prices up to trap traders?

In the early hours last night, the price plunged as low as 73,000 in a flash crash, scaring quite a few people. But it bounced back during the morning session and is now back at 75,000!

After this dip and recovery, where will the market go next?
Join us when we go live to discuss the charts and analyze the market. If you have an open position and aren’t sure what to do next, come take a look!
$BTC

The early-morning wick came out of nowhere!

Based on the news currently available, it may be related to Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang's alleged affair. The other person is said to be a Chinese spy, but that's only the US side's claim and has no factual basis. Still, Nvidia is facing a strict investigation involving national security interests.

So, in the short term, at this critical juncture, it's salt in the wound for tech stocks.$BTC
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