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#ETH走势分析 The balance of Ethereum (ETH) on major centralized exchanges has dropped to a historical low — only 8.7% (or approximately 8.8%) of ETH remains on exchanges, marking the first time it has fallen this low since 2015.

Since July 2025, ETH has been flowing out of exchanges on a large scale — many ETH have been transferred to staking, custody, Layer-2, DeFi, and other uses, instead of being kept on exchanges for “instant sale.”

Analysts believe this indicates that ETH is entering the “tightest supply environment” — in other words, if demand returns (buying pressure/capital inflow), and supply is limited, it could push prices upwards.

On the other hand, there are also technical and macroeconomic factors affecting ETH — recently, prices have fluctuated around $3000, with market sentiment and macroeconomic factors (such as interest rates and risk appetite) remaining key variables.

✅ “Less ETH on exchanges = less possibility for immediate selling” — when a lot of ETH is locked in staking, custody, or DeFi, it indicates that people are more inclined to hold long-term rather than engage in short-term speculation. This supply tension is very beneficial for a long-term bullish outlook.

📈 Tightening supply + potential demand = conditions for price increase
— If there is new buying or capital inflow into ETH, this structure of “shrinking supply + unchanged/increasing demand” is very likely to become the “fuel” driving prices.

⚠️ However, there is still volatility risk in prices — although the on-chain structure appears bullish, ETH prices are significantly influenced by macro factors and market sentiment in the short term — interest rate hikes, risk asset sell-offs, and technical pressure could all weigh down ETH.

🎯 More suitable for medium to long-term holders/investors — for those willing to hold long-term and are optimistic about the Ethereum ecosystem (staking, DeFi, Layer-2), this period is an opportunity to accumulate/hold; for short-term speculators, be mindful of volatility risk.

#加密市场观察 #BTC走势分析

CFTC (Commodity Futures Trading Commission) approves spot cryptocurrency products to trade on regulated futures exchanges
—— This is an important step by the regulatory agency towards the legalization of crypto assets.

The European Commission plans to expand the supervisory powers of ESMA (European Securities and Markets Authority) over crypto asset companies and trading venues regulated by MiCA.

At the same time, discussions in the market about Bitcoin (BTC) as a "long-term reserve vs. short-term speculation" are intensifying — as policies become clearer, both institutions and retail investors may reconsider their entry timing.

✅ Stricter regulations ≠ dead end — rather, it is a signal of mainstreaming

The actions of the CFTC and ESMA indicate that crypto assets are gradually being incorporated into traditional financial and regulatory frameworks. For large institutions/funds/banks, this means they can participate in the crypto market with more confidence and regulation. In the long run, this is beneficial for reducing black market and illegal trading, enhancing market stability.

🔁 Clear policies + institutional entry = greater possibility for crypto assets to transition from "speculative products" to "formal assets"

Once OTC/spot trading is institutionalized, the thresholds of capital requirements and compliance may be higher for ordinary people, but it also means that crypto assets are more likely to be treated as "asset allocation" or "reserve assets" rather than short-term trading tools.

⚠️ Short-term volatility cannot be ignored

Although regulations and systems are becoming clearer, this does not mean that prices will stabilize immediately. Market sentiment, macroeconomics, and policy changes can still cause severe fluctuations. For individual/small investors, blindly following trends remains a significant risk.

🎯 Suitable for conservative allocation + long-term perspective investors

If you believe in the future integration of crypto assets with traditional finance, then now may be a "layout period" — treating a portion of funds as long-term asset reserves rather than short-term speculation.

#战略储备 #比特币VS代币化黄金 #加密市场观察
Texas becomes the first state in the U.S. to use state funds to purchase Bitcoin
Texas officially announces:

It has bought $5 million worth of Bitcoin through BlackRock's IBIT ETF
Another $5 million will be converted to 'self-custody', meaning the state government may hold BTC directly, without relying on Wall Street custodians

This is the first time in U.S. history that a state government has engaged in Bitcoin entry, which carries strong symbolic significance.

The current Bitcoin market is in a correction period, and ETF funds are flowing out, but Texas has chosen to position itself against the trend.

The core reason is simple — they are not doing short-term trading but rather 'strategic reserves for decades'.

The Texas Blockchain Association stated:
'We are thinking in decades, not years.'

This means:

The state government treats BTC as a long-term reserve asset
Not chasing highs and cutting losses, but accumulating through market fear
Setting a precedent for other states in the U.S. to have 'government-level buyers'

(1) Bitcoin is rising from corporate assets to government reserve assets.
This is not a corporate action by MicroStrategy, but a change in national-level fiscal thinking.
With the first state, there will be a second, and a third.

(2) Texas's actions will accelerate the promotion of U.S. crypto policy.
Once state governments incorporate BTC into their fiscal assets, they will naturally promote:
More favorable crypto regulations
Clearer tax rules
More open mining and industrial policies
Stronger financial innovation attractiveness
This is a chain reaction at the policy level.

(3) Short-term market fluctuations are not important; the mid-to-long-term narrative is very strong.
Even if Bitcoin continues to correct to the 80k range, this type of 'government-level buying' will continuously enhance long-term support.

(4) For investors: This is a typical 'short-term chaos, long-term benefits'.
Government buying against the trend often represents a macro-level consensus on value, rather than speculation.

#eth巨鲸增持

To be honest, today's on-chain movements are very interesting:

Retail investors are hesitating about "good news being fully priced in", but whales are crazily "stocking up and locking in".

It mainly depends on these three core signals:
1. Everyone is pocketing (withdrawing coins to accumulate)
In the past couple of days, nearly 500 million dollars worth of ETH has been withdrawn from exchanges.

The logic is simple: if big players want to exit, they would definitely deposit coins into exchanges to prepare for a dump; now, on the contrary, they are withdrawing large amounts of coins to wallets, indicating they do not intend to sell, and are even preparing for a long-term hold.

2. Ancient big players have given a reassurance
The most exciting operation came from an early whale of an ICO that had been dormant for 10 years. This person holds 40,000 ETH (approximately 120 million dollars), and suddenly made a move yesterday.

The market was originally terrified, thinking the ancient whale was going to dump and cash out, but it turned out they immediately threw everything into a staking contract for interest.
This attitude is very clear: "I am not selling; I still plan to hold for several more years."

3. Why buy at this time? (Fusaka effect)
Yesterday, the "Fusaka" upgrade was implemented.
The current logic of big players is: after the upgrade, L2 fees have decreased, and Ethereum's position as a "rental income provider" has become more stable. They are betting on ecological explosion rather than betting on today’s price fluctuations.

Old investors summarize:
At this position (around $3,000), it is clear that big players are picking up the bloody chips thrown away by retail investors.

As long as there are whales withdrawing coins and staking, there is no need to worry too much about a crash. This wave of turnover is actually washing out the weak hands, making the foundation even more solid.

#加密市场观察
BlackRock leadership recently stated: "Tokenization will become the bridge connecting the crypto/blockchain world with traditional finance," viewing it as a bridge between the two sides — traditional institutions vs. digital innovators.

In the future, it's not just "crypto vs stocks/bonds," but rather "all assets — including bonds, cash, ETFs... could exist in token form on the blockchain," which can be bought, sold, and held through a single digital wallet.

Currently, BlackRock has launched the world's largest tokenized cash/money market fund BUIDL — the funds come from U.S. Treasuries, cash, and repurchase agreements, indicating that this is not mere talk, but the mixed experiment of "traditional assets + blockchain" has begun.

Of course, they also emphasize that "tokenization will not immediately replace the existing financial system," and the real change lies in "mutual compatibility/interoperability between the two sides," calling for regulators to establish rules that allow the tokenization market and traditional financial markets to coexist safely.

This is a trend worth noting — the entry of large asset management institutions like BlackRock indicates that "tokenization + traditional assets" is moving from concept to reality, potentially truly changing the structure of capital markets in the next decade:

For ordinary investors, tokenization may lower the entry barrier, making assets that used to belong only to institutions or high-net-worth individuals (such as government bonds and money market instruments) easier to buy, sell, and hold.

For the crypto/blockchain ecosystem, this also means that DeFi/crypto is no longer just a "high-risk speculative market," but has the potential to become "part of mainstream finance."

Of course, there are still challenges to truly succeed: regulation, compliance, security, liquidity, valuation transparency... all need to be properly addressed.

Pay close attention to the "regulatory rule changes + liquidity/secondary market performance" of tokenized assets in the next 12–24 months, as this will be an important indicator of whether this wave can continue.