可爱萱说U

If you had bought 10,000 US dollars worth of Ethereum in 2015, congratulations, you would have 200 million US dollars now.
But the process in between was like this: you first went from 10,000 US dollars to 1 million US dollars, you did nothing,
it then rose to 14 million US dollars, you did nothing and then shrank to 300,000 US dollars, you did nothing
then it went to 30 million US dollars, you did nothing
then it shrank to 1.2 million US dollars, you did nothing
then it went back to 93 million US dollars, you did nothing
then it shrank to 5.3 million US dollars, you did nothing
then it went to 323 million US dollars, you did nothing, and then shrank to 200 million US dollars. Can you hold on?

Ms. Jiang, a 46-year-old unmarried woman without children living alone in Shanghai, has passed away, and all her assets have been confiscated.
What would happen in the United States in a similar incident? In 2016, an elderly person in Chicago left behind a huge inheritance of $11 million! Lawyers found 119 distant relatives from various countries to share it.

Breaking: In November, China's new home prices fell by 2.4% year-on-year, with a significant acceleration in the decline.
Prices for secondary residential properties in various city tiers have dropped sharply, with first-tier cities experiencing a year-on-year decline of 5.8%, and second and third-tier cities dropping by 5.6% and 5.8% respectively.
Since mid-2021, China's real estate market has been in a slump.
As a result, the volume of housing sales, calculated by building area, is currently 50% lower than the levels of 2021, representing an unprecedented loss of value.
The International Monetary Fund estimates that China may need to spend about 5% of its GDP within 3 years to address this crisis.

Recently, a frequently discussed issue regarding quantum computing has taken on a new perspective: Will Satoshi Nakamoto's 100w $BTC be cracked and sold off?
It's very interesting! The market always seems to enter a phase of 'risk pricing based on imagination' at some point in time.
But what’s even more interesting is that, in the entire history of Bitcoin, all the reasons for declaring it dead have ultimately turned into evolutionary milestones.
Many discussions start by asking: Can quantum computing crack BTC? How long will it take?
This question itself has a somewhat media-driven orientation. The more realistic question should be:
If quantum computing really becomes a threat, will it appear suddenly or will it approach gradually?
The answer is the latter, and it will be a very slow and highly engineered approach. At the engineering level, the current human technological capability is lacking by more than an order of magnitude.
So it won't be that one day we wake up and #Bitcoin has been compromised by quantum; it’s more likely to be:
A national laboratory → An academic breakthrough → A type of repeatable engineering validation → An extremely small-scale experimental attack → The industry begins to respond.
In other words, it is a threat that can be observed many years in advance, not a black swan that arrives suddenly.
This point is very important, as it directly negates the narrative of 'suddenly emptying Satoshi's wallet.'
The reason is simple:
A quantum computer capable of attacking ECDSA will definitely require national-level resources, and the first thing it will do is not to crash the Bitcoin price;
They are more concerned about: military communications, intelligence systems, financial clearing, and the cryptography systems of hostile nations...
How much market value do you think Bitcoin occupies? What’s the difference in cost-effectiveness between that and using a nuclear bomb to blow up a warehouse?
So, if we must define a time frame for the quantum threat, I believe—
In the next 5 years, it can almost be ignored;
In 5-15 years, it may enter a phase requiring engineering preparation;
After 15 years, it might become a system-level decision variable.
And even so, it’s not quantum vs. Bitcoin, but quantum vs. the world's cryptographic systems, which can extremely compromise banks, military systems, and global communications.
By that point, what you should worry about will definitely not be the price of BTC!

A strong currency must first be freely convertible; otherwise, there is nothing to discuss.

The Renminbi is not a market-oriented currency; its appreciation and depreciation are manipulated and not adjusted by the market. The appreciation of the Renminbi is very likely due to foreign trade companies rushing to convert currency at the end of the year to pay bonuses to employees and settle payments with suppliers. At this time, allowing the Renminbi to appreciate rapidly creates a strong Renminbi and a stable and improving Chinese economy. Counter-cyclical adjustment is a very skilled operation by the central bank.
If there is truly upward pressure on the Renminbi, the foreign exchange quota for residents can be increased to 100,000, and if that doesn't work, to 150,000, allowing ordinary citizens to take on the currency conversion needs of foreign trade companies, letting the market determine the Renminbi exchange rate, and relaxing restrictions on residents' overseas investments.
The interest rate and yield spread between the US dollar and the Renminbi are evident; there is a scarcity of Renminbi assets, but there is no need to worry about US dollar assets.

The bank's cancellation of the 5-year large denomination time deposit is another historic event.
This indicates that Chinese banks no longer need 'long-term funds'.
Banks are lenders; if banks do not need long-term funds, it means that no one is seeking financing from banks, especially for medium to long-term loans.
If banks are not looking at the long term, then will ordinary people make long-term investments such as buying houses? Will entrepreneurs make long-term investments such as updating equipment?

Let's talk about a counterintuitive fact: Google's parent company has topped the list of the world's most profitable companies.
As of December 2, 2025, according to the latest TTM (Trailing Twelve Months) data (rolling data includes Q4 2024 + Q1-Q3 2025),
Alphabet (Google's parent company) has surpassed Saudi Aramco and Apple, becoming the most profitable company in the world.
Currently, the top three are:
1st: Alphabet (Google)
Net profit: $124.3 billion
Net profit margin: 30.1%
2nd: Apple
Net profit: $112.0 billion
Net profit margin: 24.8%
3rd: Microsoft
Net profit: $104.9 billion
Net profit margin: 35.7%
Although many people have the impression that "Apple is the richest" or "Saudi Aramco is the most profitable," the new landscape in 2025 is that the "three tech giants" have completely dominated the rankings.
However, currently, we are in an era of transition between old and new energy, represented by the "old energy" Saudi Aramco (oil) falling out of the top three, being fully surpassed by the tech giants representing "new energy (AI/computing power)."
NVIDIA, although it ranks fourth, has a net profit margin (53.7%) that is nearly twice that of Alphabet and five times that of Amazon (9.8%).
It makes money from "selling shovels," with extremely high efficiency.
The reason for Alphabet (Google) rising to the top is also very simple: its core advertising business has rebounded, along with the profit margin surge brought by Google Cloud and AI.
In the past, everyone was worried that ChatGPT would kill Google Search, but data proves that Alphabet's cash printing machine (search + cloud) is still the strongest in the world.
Overall business capability is even more formidable!
Google (Alphabet) 's 2025 performance:
Q1 net profit: $23.6 billion
Q2 net profit: $26.3 billion
Q3 net profit: $34.9 billion (a year-on-year increase of 33%, this is the key to its rise to the top)
The current trend is that the more it earns, the more it makes, with cloud revenue brought by AI skyrocketing.
As shown in the figure below, it temporarily ranks first!
In short:
When we buy individual stocks, we should not look at the fluctuations of their K-line, but rather consider their market share, as well as the popularity and practicality of their products, just like Buffett.

Tom Lee$SPX 7,700
"We believe that looking ahead to 2026, investors will face numerous concerns, especially with the inauguration of the new Federal Reserve Chair, which is likely to yield a 10% increase," he said in a video update, adding that the new Federal Reserve Chair would not want to stifle the bull market. The focus of investor concerns is whether the stock market can maintain its upward momentum after three consecutive years of increases exceeding 20%. Since 1928, the average increase for the S&P 500 in the fourth year following three consecutive years of gains over 20% has been 12%. Historically, this has generally been the case for instances of three consecutive years of gains exceeding 20%. Overvaluation of artificial intelligence, the potential need for some time to adapt to the new Federal Reserve Chair, concerns about social unrest, and the possibility of the Supreme Court overturning U.S. tariffs are also sources of investor anxiety. The new Federal Reserve Chair = dovish policy = favorable for the stock market in the second half of the year. Artificial intelligence and energy infrastructure, Wall Street's transition to blockchain (such as the tokenization of stocks, credit, and real estate), and manufacturing reshoring will be the biggest drivers of profits and growth.

Only 0.145% of the US population knows what is about to happen...

Ed Yarden: "The Architect of Artificial Intelligence" has been named this year's TIME Magazine Person of the Year. We asked Google's Gemini: "Can you list examples of the TIME Magazine Person of the Year cover that ultimately turned into a curse?" Gemini replied: "TIME Magazine has always emphasized that the 'Person of the Year' measures influence (for better or worse), not approval, but the public often overlooks this. Thus, there is a recurring pattern known as the 'TIME Cover Curse'—the cover subject often faces disgrace, political downfall, or even death shortly after the magazine is published."
We have been warned.
We now recommend market-cap weighting for the S&P 500 Information Technology and Communication Services sectors, and to continue to increase holdings in the S&P 500 Financial and Industrial sectors, as well as our new recommendation to increase holdings in the Healthcare sector (see chart). These three sectors currently account for 31% of the total market capitalization of the S&P 500 and 38% of total earnings.

Yardeni: The "Seven Giants" of the S&P 500 Index may not shine as brightly by 2026, as their intense competition in the field of artificial intelligence begins to undermine their monopolies in areas such as search (Google), software (Microsoft), retail (Amazon), advertising (Meta), electric vehicles (Tesla), smartphones (Apple), and GPU chips (NVIDIA). The beneficiaries of this competition are likely to be the "493 Strong" of the S&P 500 Index. A week ago, we suggested reducing holdings in the former and increasing holdings in the latter. Our judgment may be correct: since October 29, the MAGS ETF has fallen by 4.2%, while the XMAG ETF has risen by 1.2% (see chart).
The S&P 500 Equal Weight Index set a record high last weekend, and the S&P 500 Market Capitalization Weighted Index also reached a new high on Thursday (see chart). The former has risen by 10.1% year-to-date, while the latter has increased by 16.1% during the same period. We expect a reversal in market trends by 2026.

Is it really that difficult to expand domestic demand?
If you really want to expand domestic demand, there’s just one trick: change the distribution of social wealth and benefit the people.
Such a simple principle, yet not a single economist has proposed it?

Translated from Stanley: Duan Yongping is referred to by many as the 'stock god',
worshipped by countless investors.
But if you count calmly,
how many stocks truly enabled him to achieve a leap in social class and an explosion of assets?
To put it simply, there are two:
one is NetEase,
and the other is Apple.
The interesting part is that
with his capital size, information advantage, and research capability,
he could completely buy 20 or 30 'quality companies' at the same time,
diversifying to the extreme, stable to an unshakeable level.
But he did not.
What he chose was:
a very small number of targets that he could understand, dare to bet heavily on, and hold for the long term.
This is precisely what most ordinary investors cannot do and dare not do:
being optimistic but not daring to heavily invest
heavily investing but unable to hold
holding but getting scared off by short-term fluctuations.
Everyone is looking for 'investment secrets',
chasing indicators, chasing hot topics, chasing teachers, chasing news,
but the simplest and cruelest answer may just be this:
true big money is never earned through diversification,
but through 'few but right + heavy investment + time' endured.

New York Federal Reserve President Williams has come out to speak again. He believes that the current easing of inflation and the slowdown in employment indicate that last week's interest rate cut was the right decision. This can be seen as a callback to his previous statements, mainly aimed at reinforcing the rationale for the Federal Reserve's rate cuts and dispelling doubts in the market about the independence of the Federal Reserve and the political pressure from Trump.
This also indicates that the upcoming release of the large non-farm payrolls and CPI this week is crucial, as they will serve as a guide for interest rate cuts in 2026. Both of these data points are more inclined to validate the existing narrative rather than create a new one.

Sister Wood stated that the market has bottomed out and is optimistic about the three giants: Bitcoin, Ethereum, and SOL.
She believes that the market has bottomed out and bad news has mostly been exhausted.
Bitcoin remains the core asset that institutions are first positioning in.
Ethereum is more focused on institutional applications, and Layer 2 continues to expand.
Solana is more consumer-oriented with a simple structure.
In simple terms, BTC, ETH, and SOL are still the three most core lines at present.

Milan detailed his inflation outlook, believing that underlying price pressures are closer to the Federal Reserve's 2% target than the surface numbers suggest, and that tariffs are not the main culprit for recent increases in commodity prices.
Regarding housing, he stated that rents have fully returned to market levels and expects the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) housing inflation rate to decelerate from here. On non-housing services, he believes that elevated readings are distorted by implied prices such as portfolio management fees, which reflect stock price increases rather than actual consumer costs.
The most substantial part articulated his opposition to blaming commodity inflation on tariffs. If not tariffs, then how to explain the surge in commodity inflation since the end of last year? Milan proposed three possibilities. The first two possibilities are more benign: statistical error, or volatility around a lower mean post-pandemic. The third possibility is more concerning: commodity inflation may stabilize at a structurally higher level due to a long-term shift towards supply chain security and resilience.
Conclusion: "Excess inflation does not reflect the current supply-demand dynamics. Housing inflation indicates an imbalance in supply and demand that occurred two to four years ago rather than now. Given the lag in monetary policy, the policies we need to formulate are for 2027, not for 2022."

Vanke's bankruptcy. Not surprising at all.

On December 13, the family released an obituary indicating that the renowned actor He Qing peacefully passed away in Beijing at the age of 61. The farewell ceremony will be held on December 15, 2025, at 10:00 AM in the Jiuan Hall of the Changping Funeral Home in Beijing. Time does not wait for anyone, what a pity!

"Tunnel Warfare": "The situation will become more difficult in the future. The district committee instructed us that our village must fight for ourselves, continue the struggle, and we must persist; persistence is victory."