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2025.12.08 Top Trader Market Analysis

Feng Ge:
✅ Bitcoin weekly level focus on the position of 102000. If it rebounds to this range, it will be an opportunity to lay out long-term short positions again, with a bearish target in the 7-5W range. Only when it reaches this range will I consider laying out spots. The hourly level is in channel adjustment, and I am currently not considering a breakout above 10W, so I am temporarily not turning bullish; it feels more like a trap for bulls, still maintaining a bearish view.

Chenge:
⚠️ The direction is about to come out!
✅ Bitcoin daily line closed with a doji, with upper and lower wicks. Currently, we need to be patient and focus on the support line of the wedge structure. The thought process remains bearish.
✅ Ethereum also focuses on the lower support line, primarily bearish.

Bitcoin Commander:
✅ Bitcoin's decline looks like a WXY structure, currently in the W wave decline. The W wave is a 5-wave downward structure. Based on the small structure trend, it is highly likely still in the C4 wave rebound. C4 wave rebound looks around 97.
✅ Opening order suggestion: BTC: Short near 91 down to 87. Lay out long positions in the 87-86 range.

[Financial Breakfast | December 8, 2025]

1. The S&P 500 rose for the fourth consecutive day last Friday, nearing a record high; Baidu rose nearly 6%; US Treasury yields rose to a two-week high, and silver and copper prices both hit new highs again.

2. He Leng held a video call with US Treasury Secretary Bessant and Trade Representative Greer.

3. The Fed's preferred inflation gauge, the core PCE index, rose 2.8% year-on-year in September, broadly in line with expectations; real personal spending stagnated.

4. A University of Michigan survey: US consumer confidence ended a four-month decline, with short-term inflation expectations falling to their lowest level since the beginning of the year.

5. China's Ministry of National Defense responded to Japan's hype about the radar illumination of the Liaoning aircraft carrier: expressing strong dissatisfaction and firm opposition to Japan's provocation and misleading of public opinion.

6. China's foreign exchange reserves rose 0.09% month-on-month in November; the central bank increased its gold holdings for the 13th consecutive month.

7. Wu Qing, Chairman of the China Securities Regulatory Commission: Appropriately opening up capital space and leverage restrictions for high-quality securities firms; resolutely refusing to engage in unclear businesses such as crypto assets.

8. China's first administrative regulation for listed company supervision is here! The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) released a draft for public comment, strengthening constraints on the "key few" such as directors and senior executives, and establishing a comprehensive mechanism to address illegal activities such as financial fraud.

9. Risk factors have been lowered again, expanding "patient capital" and further opening up space for insurance funds to enter the market.

10. The 2025 China National Reimbursement Drug List was released: 114 new drugs were added, including those for pancreatic cancer and lung cancer.

11. Baidu's Kunlun Chip is reportedly planning a Hong Kong IPO with a valuation of nearly $3 billion.

12. Vanke is seeking to extend two medium-term notes totaling 5.871 billion yuan, waiving its redemption rights for 1.1 billion yuan in bonds, and terminating cooperation with two rating agencies.

13. Wuliangye responded to its first price reduction in ten years: the ex-factory price remains at 1019 yuan per bottle; the "price reduction" refers to the price change after subsidies.

14. Report: OpenAI "urgently" releases a new model ahead of schedule to compete with Google's Gemini 3; GPT 5.2 is expected to be released as early as this Tuesday.

15. Report: SpaceX's valuation may double to $800 billion, surpassing OpenAI to become the world's most valuable private company, with plans to go public in the second half of next year.

16. Reminder: China's November import and export data will be released on Monday.

According to CoinDesk, James Butterfill, head of research at the cryptocurrency asset management company CoinShares, stated in a report that the bubble in digital asset reserve companies (DAT) has essentially burst. By the summer of 2025, companies that were previously trading at 3 to 10 times their market net asset value (mNAV) have now fallen to about 1 time or lower. This trading model, which once viewed token vaults as growth engines, has undergone a severe correction. The next trend will depend on market behavior: either a price drop will trigger disorderly selling, or companies will maintain their positions and wait for a rebound. Butterfill said he leans towards the latter, citing improvements in the macro environment and the possibility of interest rate cuts in December, which would support cryptocurrencies.
Butterfill pointed out that the bigger challenge lies in structural issues. Previously, a number of companies accumulated oversized vault assets in the public market without establishing sustainable businesses, leading to damaged reputations. Now, investors' tolerance for equity dilution and excessive concentration on single assets in the absence of actual operational income is declining. There are already signs that stronger companies are incorporating Bitcoin into rigorous vault and foreign exchange management strategies, indicating a healthier development trend. The concept of digital asset vaults is not disappearing but is being reclassified, and the new generation of companies needs to have fundamental support, credible business models, stricter governance structures, and realistic expectations, treating digital assets as tools rather than everything.

2025.12.05 Top Trader Analysis
Feng Ge:
⚠️ Viewpoint remains unchanged
✅ Key points: 1. Will it continue to rise in the short term? 2. When to place short positions?
✅ Bitcoin's short-term adjustment is about to end, watch for pullback risks. The current ascending equidistant reversal zone is around 96800–97000, which is close to the top position. It is not advisable to chase highs once the previous high is broken. Look for continued fluctuations and adjustments. Two expected trends: 1. The rebound ends and a new daily downtrend begins. 2. Maintain continuous fluctuations within the channel, with high points breaking upwards to induce long positions before starting a new daily downtrend. Wait to participate in swing short trades.
✅ Short positions: Bitcoin currently has a light position, defending against the previous high or waiting to layout around 96800-97000.

Chenge:
⚠️ Bitcoin has downside risk!
✅ The resistance zone for Bitcoin is showing weakness, and the overall bearish viewpoint remains unchanged. Focus on the suppression of the downtrend line and beware of long traps. Currently, 93000 confirms a false breakout, with a high probability of a drop.
✅ Ethereum's downtrend line remains bearish. If it breaks, look for a rebound to around 3500, but also beware of long traps.

Bitcoin Commander:
✅ Bitcoin's downtrend looks like a WXY structure, in the W wave downtrend. The W wave is a 5-wave down structure, currently in the C4 wave rebound, with another C5 drop after the rebound. The C4 may form a triangle or a double sawtooth pattern, watch the key support at 90,000.
✅ Ethereum's downtrend looks like a WXY structure. It is still in the W wave downtrend. Watch the support at 3000, if the support holds, it may rebound again.

The Bank of Japan's December interest rate hike is 'all set', with rates expected to reach a 28-year high

According to informed sources, Bank of Japan officials are prepared to raise interest rates at the policy meeting later this month, provided there are no major shocks to the economy or financial markets during this period. The sources state that the Bank of Japan will also indicate that if its economic outlook is realized, it will continue to raise rates while being cautious about how high rates will ultimately be pushed. This rate hike will bring Japan's policy rate to its highest level since 1995. The focus for the market is how aggressively the central bank will signal subsequent rate hikes. Overnight swap indices show that traders estimate the likelihood of a rate hike this month to be about 90%. The sources indicate that as the impact of U.S. tariffs becomes clearer and sustained high corporate profits provide businesses with room to raise wages, officials are assessing that the likelihood of achieving their economic outlook has increased. The sources say that the Bank of Japan may hint at the need to review the economy's response to each rate hike to determine an appropriate level of borrowing costs. When interest rates are at a neutral level, they neither stimulate nor cool the economy. The Bank of Japan's estimate of the neutral rate lies within a broad range of 1% to 2.5%.

BitFudi Daily Market Analysis (2025.12.05)

🖊 Yesterday's Review: The market remains the same, December ultimately did not start well, bringing a hellish level of difficulty to everyone's trading. The rhythm of the market is rapidly switching between bullish and bearish, so it is still recommended that everyone mainly observes.

👉 Intraday Market:
✅ BTC's daily line yesterday closed not very ideally, with upper and lower shadows splitting the candlestick into three parts, while the trading volume did not reach the average trading volume, indicating that the bullish and bearish trends at this position are very entangled and hesitant. The subsequent market direction will not appear quickly, and maintaining the viewpoint from the 2nd likely requires a clear direction during the FOMC interest rate decision meeting. Intraday, attention should be paid to the support level of 92000 and the first resistance level of 94300. If 92000 cannot hold, then a pullback may occur at the hourly level.

✅ ETH may need us to look at it differently. Since July, it has changed from its previous weak performance; it used to be a bearish cash machine, and now it is a tough young man. It cannot go down much, nor can it go up significantly, maintaining a stable threshold, occasionally trying to steal the spotlight from BTC, which is quite challenging. Intraday pay attention to the support level of 3130 and the first resistance level of 3250.

✅ Opening Position Suggestion: Still in an awkward position, both bullish and bearish difficulties are high! Wait with no positions!

【Financial Breakfast | December 5, 2025】
1. The S&P 500 and NASDAQ experienced three thrilling consecutive rises, while U.S. bonds and Bitcoin fell back, and London copper temporarily departed from record highs.
2. President Macron of France met separately with Dada and the Premier of the State Council during his state visit to China.
3. Private data firms reported that U.S. non-farm payrolls decreased by 9,000 in November, with October revised down to a reduction of 15,500.
4. Last week, the number of first-time unemployment insurance claims in the U.S. fell to a new low not seen in over three years, while layoffs in November decreased.
5. Reports indicate that the Bank of Japan may raise interest rates in December, and the government may tolerate this move, with the yen reaching a new high in over two weeks during trading.
6. Targeting €33 trillion in household savings, the EU plans to break down national barriers in financial services to promote the creation of a truly unified capital market.
7. Reports suggest that next year, AI chip production is planned to be doubled, with Cambricon's stock price rising sharply at the end of trading, and the company issued a late-night "serious statement": untrue.
8. In the face of chip competition from Google and Amazon, NVIDIA once again published a statement "to prove itself": the GB200 NVL72 can increase the performance of open-source AI models by up to 10 times.
9. Google has entered the AI coding battle, reaching a multi-year partnership with Replit.
10. Reports indicate that Meta's former strategic core has significantly contracted, proposing to cut the metaverse budget by up to 30%; the EU plans to launch a new antitrust investigation into Meta, targeting AI features within WhatsApp.
11. Reminder: Moore Threads debuts on the A-share market today, and Muxi Co., Ltd. has commenced subscription.

2025.12.04 Top Trader Market Analysis

Feng Ge:
⚠️ No longer recommend chasing highs in the short term
✅ Key points: 1: Bitcoin short-term trading plan 2: How low can Ethereum fall? 3: When to buy the dip in the spot market?
✅ Bitcoin's short-term adjustment is about to end; be aware of pullback risks. Pay attention to the upper range around 96800～97000 for this upward evenly spaced reversal area, which is currently close to the top position. It is not recommended to chase highs if the previous high breaks, and the subsequent outlook continues to look for oscillation adjustments. Two expected scenarios: 1. The rebound ends and a new daily downtrend begins. 2. Maintain continuous oscillation within the channel, with highs breaking through to complete a false breakout before starting a new daily downtrend. Waiting to participate in swing short trades.
✅ Ethereum has reached an important daily level and may rebound to the range of 3300-3400. Hourly reversals do not constitute major level reversals.
✅ The spot buy zone for Bitcoin has not yet arrived; the spot buy point for Ethereum is below 2000.

Chenge:
⚠️ Bitcoin is rising with no volume!
✅ Bitcoin on the 4h level is breaking upwards; if it cannot effectively break through, the bearish trend continues. There are signs of volume-reduced increases, beware of false breakouts. Pay attention to the resistance level at 94200; if it hits resistance and falls back, it may continue a downward trend.
✅ After breaking the resistance level at 3060 for Ethereum, shorts cannot be held; the upward momentum on the 4h level is quite strong, pay attention to the resistance at around 3210 for a potential fall back. The downtrend line must be broken before remaining bearish; if broken, watch for a rebound to around 3500, and similarly beware of false breakout traps.

Bitcoin General:
✅ Stopped updating!

Bifudi Daily Market Analysis (2025.12.04)

🖊 Yesterday's Review: The US market saw a crazy washout, BTC moved in a stable manner, but unexpectedly ETH experienced a crazy surge (possibly due to an upgrade). Overnight, bulls made a significant profit, and the well-known counter-trend trader, Brother Ma Ji, has also been enjoying great gains these days. Market changes are rapid; as I mentioned on the 2nd, the trading difficulty in this stage is very high, so it’s better to remain cautious.

👉 Intraday Market:
✅ BTC has closed two consecutive large bullish candles, and the trading volume has increased simultaneously, confirming strong momentum. However, it has now reached an important resistance level. If it can break through, we can expect a stronger subsequent rebound; if it cannot, it may continue with a fluctuating market. Today, pay attention to the support level at 92100 and the first resistance level at 94300.

✅ ETH's rebound is even stronger, with two large bullish candles on the daily chart rebounding more than 50% of the downtrend segment. It is highly likely to break through strongly, while also needing to keep an eye on BTC's movements. Currently, frequent trading is not recommended. Focus on the support level at 3100 and the first resistance level at 3250 today.

✅ Trading Advice: We have reached a critical position where both long and short trades are quite challenging! It is recommended to stay out and wait!

【Financial Breakfast | December 4, 2025】
1. Bad news is good news, U.S. stocks and bonds rise, Microsoft drops 2.5%, iRobot surges nearly 80% during trading, offshore RMB against USD breaks 7.06, London copper hits a new high.
2. Report: Trump’s confidants discuss personnel arrangements after Hassert takes over the Federal Reserve, Bessent may also serve as the president's chief economic advisor.
3. U.S. ADP unexpected decline in November, employment decreases by 32,000, the largest drop since March 2023, small business unemployment surges.
4. U.S. ISM services index expands at the fastest pace in nine months, price index hits a seven-month low, employment index reaches a six-month high.
5. Copper prices hit a new historical high, LME delivery orders soar to the highest level since 2013, Asian demand surges.
6. Report: The EU promotes a key product “70% European made” standard, companies’ annual costs may increase by over 10 billion euros.
7. Reports say Microsoft lowers AI software sales quotas, stock price falls nearly 3%, Microsoft denies.
8. Meta takes action to poach: reports say Apple design executive Alan Dye jumps ship with his deputy.
9. AI application is beneficial, Salesforce expects revenue to grow over 10% this quarter, raises full-year guidance, jumps after hours.
10. Competing for an IPO with OpenAI! Report: Anthropic hires IPO lawyers, plans to go public as early as 2026.
11. Trump administration All in! Allegedly considering issuing a robot executive order next year, iRobot surges nearly 80% during trading.
12. China's commercial spaceflight milestone: Zhuque-3 successfully launches into orbit, first-stage recovery fails.
13. Doubao mobile assistant triggers WeChat account forced offline? Doubao and WeChat respond.
14. Domestic GPU first stock Moore Threads, listed on Friday!
15. Auto companies cross-border seize smart wearable entry, Li Auto releases its first AI glasses, starting at 1999 yuan.

$ETH Interesting Interesting

#就业数据 important data will be released today, everyone please manage risk!

2025.12.03 Top Trader's Analysis
Feng Ge:
✅ Bitcoin's potential bottom reversal structure. Currently, bullish momentum is increasing, while bearish momentum is weakening. If the neckline breaks and stays above 92000, we will welcome an hourly-level reversal. If a reversal occurs, this round of increase may challenge 100000, with a maximum of 102000. However, it will not form a weekly trend reversal, only a pullback on the daily chart. Once the daily adjustment ends, we will welcome a new downtrend.

Chenge:
⚠️ Be cautious of the Bitcoin bullish trap!
✅ Bitcoin, potential double bottom structure! The neckline area of the double bottom structure is 93000 USD. If it breaks upwards, we will look for a rebound! If it cannot break through, or if it is a false breakout (breakout failure), then there is a probability of a decline, forming a bearish wedge structure.
✅ Ethereum breaking through the resistance level of 3060 will see 3400, showing a similar performance to Bitcoin. Until it breaks through, we continue to maintain a bearish outlook.

Bitcoin Commander:
✅ No updates prior to the post!

Bifudi Daily Market Analysis (2025.12.03)

🖊 Yesterday's Review: Overnight, the bears were brutally pressed down, and even Jesus would ask for mercy in this market. I believe only the market manipulators can profit from such trends. How many people can hold their positions after bottom-fishing, and how many can avoid being beaten after chasing the highs? The script of mutual slaughter between bulls and bears in just two days has truly become a bloody mess.

👉 Intraday Market:
✅ BTC's daily chart shows a large bullish candle that has directly formed a bearish engulfing pattern, and there is a possibility of a trend reversal (80%). No need to say much; the current market is really difficult for trading, so everyone should mainly observe. Pay attention to the support level at 90000 and the first resistance level at 93000.

✅ ETH's rhythm is in sync with BTC. Focus on the support level at 2960 and the first resistance level at 3070 for the day.

✅ Trading Suggestion: Mainly observe!

🔔 Reminder: The current market is very challenging for trading, so keep your hands steady and wait with empty positions!

【Financial Breakfast | December 3, 2025】
1. US stocks closed higher, cryptocurrencies largely recovered losses from Monday's plunge, silver saw a V-shaped reversal, and the offshore yuan approached a 14-month high.
2. Trump stated that he will announce the Federal Reserve Chair nominee early next year, hinting at Hassett. The new Federal Reserve news agency: Hassett's election as Federal Reserve Chair has been 'internally confirmed'.
3. The US holiday shopping season starts off strong! The National Retail Federation: the number of shoppers during the Thanksgiving holiday surged to over 200 million.
4. The OECD raises its economic growth forecasts for the US and the Eurozone.
5. Eurozone November CPI rebounded to 2.2%, with stubborn service prices; the European Central Bank is unlikely to cut interest rates in December.
6. China optimizes the relevant work mechanism for acquisition notes.
7. Major short sellers are targeting Tesla, calling its valuation absurd and its compensation plan detrimental to shareholders.
8. Amazon makes a major announcement challenging Google and NVIDIA: AI chip Trainium 3 is faster and more energy-efficient, with four Nova 2 models, pioneering 'open training'.
9. NVIDIA CFO: $500 billion in chip bookings does not include OpenAI collaboration, and the $100 billion agreement is still not finalized.
10. JD Industrial's Hong Kong IPO aims to raise no more than 3.3 billion HKD.