MM-喵姐

7.31 Market Trend Analysis

Wrapping up and wrapping up~ Last night's wave really caught everyone off guard. Prices didn't drop much, but most people's positions were cleaned out completely. In the middle of the night, gold took a big plunge, and BTC broke through the small low point of consolidation, only to bounce back with increased volume. The Americans are really playing hard with these news-driven market manipulations. The 117 level just can't be broken, and it's likely that we'll have to see a wave of short selling before we can kick off the next rally once panic reaches its peak.

Now altcoins are starting to crash again, and BTC and ETH haven't really plummeted yet. I guess many people are starting to shout again, "Altcoin season, the bull market is here." But don't forget, Powell was not joking yesterday; he first poured cold water on the interest rate cut expectations for September, and then directly criticized Trump's "beautiful tax plan," implying that fiscal stimulus can't save us from the current inflation.

There are several key time points worth paying attention to:

1. Tomorrow marks the end of the monthly candlestick, and the trend may undergo a reversal.
2. Friday night at 20:30, non-farm payroll data, which usually triggers volatility.
3. Next Monday marks the end of the weekly candlestick; whether this wave will soar depends on it.
#美联储利率决议

The daily structure of Ethereum is quite interesting:
It has only broken through the first descending trend line, which means the downtrend is basically over, but it hasn't passed the second one yet, so it can't be called a reversal for now; we can only say "the wind is changing." Yesterday's large bullish candle broke the 3100 neckline, and today there's a small bearish candle, which just happens to form a pregnant line pattern, indicating that the short-term is still more volatile.

Next, we will see how the lines close over the next two days, whether it's a true breakthrough or a false one, and we'll know soon enough. The bulls at the bottom are showing increased volume, and the MACD has also formed a golden cross after a bottom divergence, which is a good signal. In the short term, I see a range of oscillations, moving back and forth between 3066—3240 USD.

#比特币 surged back to 94,000, but this position can only be entered cautiously, cannot chase or rush. If you miss the rhythm, don't force yourself in; the risk is clearly greater than the profit. Those without a bottom position, going in now is basically just being shaken back and forth at high levels, easily leading to losses in the end.

I also missed this wave of Ethereum and SOL. The rhythm was initially correct, but I was thrown off during the night by a sudden market wash, didn't lose but also didn't gain. If the rhythm doesn't go up, you can't make money from this wave of market. Especially in the Eastern market, everything is being driven by the Western rhythm. If you don't stay up late, you can't keep up, but your body can't handle it either.

The more realistic situation is that the US stock market is currently ridiculously hot; a crash is just a matter of time—there's a high probability of a big wave coming in January or February next year. The market is getting increasingly difficult; going long is hard, and going short is also hard. Looking back from the beginning of the year to now, even from 2022 to 2025, I don't even know how I've managed to get through it. This year has been particularly cold, with not even decent hotspots.

What can be done is to stay steady and endure the winter.

Last night, the US stock market opened, and Bitcoin initially dropped to 83800, then slowly regained lost ground throughout the day.
More importantly, the Coinbase premium has returned to positive — the panic sell-off has basically come to an end.
There are also signals from the ETF side:
Last night, the net inflow of BTC ETF was 8.5 million
After a 3-day holiday, it maintained a continuous 4 days without capital outflow.

The Vanguard Group has opened BTC/ETH/SOL/XRP ETF, with a management scale of 11 trillion dollars, second only to BlackRock.

This would be a nuclear-level positive in a bull market, but now, in a downtrend cycle, it can only be considered paving the way in advance. When the funds will enter will depend on the liquidity rhythm after the Federal Reserve.

Another stimulating point: the media reported that the Federal Reserve injected 13.5 billion dollars into the system through overnight repurchase — the second largest scale since the pandemic, even higher than during the dot-com bubble.

If the news is true, it would be a very real breathing opportunity for crypto.

But don't overlook the bad news:
MSTR just bought 130 BTC last week, but last night withdrew 1.44 billion dollars for US stock dividends reserves, money that was originally meant for buying BTC. It shows they are also starting to feel the pressure of stock prices.
#美SEC推动加密创新监管

The macro environment these past two days has been a mix of bad and good news!\n\nOn the technical side: #BTC The four-hour chart shows 84000 as a bit of support, but it's very weak, with no signs of stabilization. The key question is whether we can return to 90,000 in the short term—if we can break through, there might be a rebound; if we can't, it will be a continued sideways movement and grinding. At this stage, it’s better to study diligently and stay calm than to trade chaotically.\n\n#ETH is the same; the daily chart is still on the left side of the downward trend line, and the decline hasn't stopped. 2623 is a key support level; if it breaks, we will continue to probe lower. As for me, I'm still holding on, whether it's a bear market or a bull market, what’s meant to happen will eventually come.

This round of trends: The weekly line has been pressed continuously by the 50-week moving average for three weeks, the monthly MA20 is still stable, but the MACD dead cross adds a bit of bearish flavor to the market.

Since the flash crash in October, most of the time has been suppressed below the 20-day moving average, there has been a rebound but not enough strength.

However, the good news is that the Coinbase premium has finally turned positive, U.S. funds are starting to wake up, and last week it relied on this to push back to 90,000.

Next, we will look at two points: whether it can stabilize at 92,000 and whether it can break through the densely trapped area of 93,000–96,000. Only after surpassing this ceiling can we truly talk about 100,000. The short-term trend is defended at 83,000–85,000, and this tug-of-war is likely to take some time.

On the macro side, the bias is warm: The probability of a rate cut in December has soared from 25% to over 80%, and balance sheet reduction may also pause, with the Federal Reserve turning dovish again, which is genuinely positive for risk assets. Overall, the market has not completely reversed, but the direction is indeed brightening, and now we just wait for Bitcoin to provide the answer.
#加密市场回调

The increase of the week has dropped back in just a few hours!
Today, this monthly line has directly returned all the gains of last week, $BTC has once again proven that the market depth is still inadequate, and the bear market strategy must be to enter and exit quickly.
If 80,000 cannot hold, then the second pullback bottom will follow.

Today I looked at the 2-day line of Ethereum, and my intuitive feeling is:
This wave fell for 89 days, with a drop of 47%. The time and space have been explained quite well; 2623 USD just happens to be at the dense trading area, also the starting point of the last market trend, support is quite strong;
In terms of patterns, the morning star after a big bearish candle + consecutive bullish candles, the bulls are obviously gaining momentum;
The MACD bearish structure has also been broken.

As for the long term, it inherently requires time for baptism, but those who can hold on often see the real returns.

What is this for? Is this really happening? #币圈

Bitcoin finally kicked through 90,000 this morning and pulled up to 92,000. This is the first time since the panic crash in November that it can be considered an 'effective breakthrough'.
What’s even more interesting is that Coinbase's negative premium against Binance has lasted for a full 29 days and finally turned positive today. During the acceleration from April to October, Coinbase always had a positive premium, primarily driven by Europe and the United States. This reversal in premium is likely a signal that the wind has changed.

The macroeconomic indicators are also starting to show green lights: expectations for a rate cut in December are heating up, U.S. stocks have risen for four consecutive days, tech stocks are recovering across the board, and ETFs have seen two days of inflow. Although the amounts aren't large, at least it has stopped the bleeding. Whether funds will return to the cryptocurrency market depends on whether there are stronger positive signals in the future.

The warming sentiment may also be related to Trump’s phone call with Japanese Prime Minister Kishida, which has temporarily suppressed geopolitical risks; there are also discussions about a new version of a peace plan in the Russia-Ukraine situation, which will likely reduce volatility.

There are also negative factors: S&P downgraded USDT to the worst rating, citing reasons such as significant reserve risks and lack of transparency. However, Tether has survived ten years through storms without collapsing, so this kind of news is just something to watch. Upbit was hacked for 380 million USD today, but for the universe, this is hardly a concern; their parent company was just fully acquired by Naver for 10.3 billion USD, so this little hole will be filled in no time.

Altcoins as a whole have not followed the rise, as many are waiting for the market to confirm a reversal; instead, meme coins have taken off first, with $fartcoin, $spx, and $brett all rebounding by around 20%; launch pads and application-related coins like $met, $virtual, $ena, $pendle, and $ethfi are also making moves, while mining coin $kas continues to be strong.

But speaking of the previous point: if there really is a wave of altcoin season, it is likely to be the 'last round'. The ecosystem of old altcoins has become extremely awkward; in the future, they will either go to zero or be eliminated. If you can switch to mainstream, do it; don’t cling to the end and get buried.
#币安HODLer空投AT #加密市场反弹

The Ether has clearly turned around in this four-hour period, and the daily MACD is also about to form a golden cross. The 3000 level is about to be breached at any moment. For this round, I still see a target of 3400. If there is no increase in volume and no decent spike has emerged for a day, this rebound is not over yet.

After falling for so long, this week started with a decent rebound!
Last week, Xiao Miao mentioned that Bitcoin had reached a temporary bottom, and it's time to enter with 25%. Did you catch this wave?
After all, after falling for 10 days, the monthly line needs to close, and with the net outflow ending for 8 days on the 22nd, it has begun to flow in continuously—after all, even in a bear market, it can't just keep crashing down; a rebound market will still give some leeway.

During this period, my operations remain conservative, mainly observing. When there isn't a particularly high certainty entry point, preserving capital is also a skill.
#比特币波动性

Monday Market Summary:

① Macroeconomics: Interest rate cut expectations have loosened a bit, but not yet realized.

Federal Reserve officials collectively voiced last week: some lean dovish (Williams, Milan), while others remain cautious (Collins, Logan). In short, the statement is: a rate cut in December is possible, but not guaranteed.
At the same time, the October CPI has been canceled, and November data has been postponed to 12/18 — this was also the catalyst for last week's market panic.

② Market Trends: Mainstream rebounds from the bottom, focus on whether U.S. stocks can continue the momentum.

BTC, ETH, SOL initially fell and then rebounded, with Bitcoin bouncing nearly 10% over the weekend.
The probability of a 25bp rate cut in December on Polymarket soared to 68%.
The fear index rose to 19 (still in extreme fear). Coinbase's premium has been negative for 24 consecutive days, but the decline is shrinking.

③ Events in the Circle: Excitement and explosions occur simultaneously.

The public IP of the NFT platform Opensea surprisingly shows it is in China, a puzzling behavior award.
PUMPFUN was exposed for running away, the official Twitter stopped updating, and $PUMP fell below a market cap of 2.5 billion.
PORT3 was hacked, with a billion tokens minted and sold off, Binance directly delisted, and the market cap went to zero.
pump.fun saw 405 million USDC flowing into Kraken, while 466 million flowed to Circle, suspected outflows.

④ Institutional and Capital Flows
JPMorgan warned: MSTR may be removed from indices or face a passive sell-off of 2.8 billion dollars; Saylor directly retorted, “alarmist.”
Bitwise CIO stated: now is a “fairy entry point” looking at cycles above 2026.
Coinbase completed the sale of MON tokens, with total subscriptions of 269 million dollars.
OKX listed ZEC spot trading.
Last week’s ETF: BTC inflow was 238 million, ETH inflow was 55 million, this week is crucial to see if BlackRock continues to sell off.
#美国非农数据超预期

The market is currently sluggish, and the continuous decline over the past month has been testing the bottom. Recently, it has evolved into a slow burn, gradually declining. Don't think about a bull market for now; let's talk about it next year!

So, you ask me if Bitcoin has bottomed out? My answer: not yet.
However, at this position, you can consider entering 25%, as it is also a 25-year low! A friendly reminder: be extremely alert with leveraged players recently!

Since the peak on October 7, 126199, it has turned bearish all the way, and this decline has also been aided by some players. My personal insights:

First, the US government shutdown has delayed a bunch of ETF approvals, preventing outside funds from coming in, and key positive news has been extinguished;
Second, the crypto disaster on October 11 sucked out liquidity, severely damaging the bulls;
Third, the escalation of the China-US trade war has dealt a direct blow, completely collapsing market sentiment;
Fourth, the cyclical resonance happened to coincide with this time point, forcibly pressing the confirmation button for the bull-bear switch.

With these four events stacked together, it is not surprising to see such a market situation.
Remember: history does not simply repeat itself, but it is always remarkably similar!
#美国非农数据超预期

Crazy!
The big pancake Ethereum has once again fallen below the previous low, it's really heading towards the bottom of April.
And OKB has currently fallen below a hundred at #比特币波动性 .

Take a quick look at the data gap of the three major L2 stablecoins:

1. Arbitrum (ARB)
Total market capitalization of stablecoins is $4.274 billion, with USDC accounting for 57.46% alone. It has seen a slight increase of 4.53% over the past 7 days, but a slight pullback of 1.77% on the day. Overall, ARB's stablecoin scale remains at the top.

2. Optimism (OP)
Although there is no complete data, USDT alone is $17.112 billion, and with USDC's $287 million, the scale is completely overwhelming. Stablecoin funds continue to gather in the OP ecosystem.

3. Celo
The main player is CUSD, with a market cap of only $3.557 million, and with CEUR and CREAL, there is not much presence. The scale of external stablecoins on the chain is larger: USDT is about $270 million, USDC is about $170 million, and overall, it is still far smaller than OP and ARB.

Where the stablecoins go, liquidity goes. OP and ARB are gold mines, while Celo is still in the startup phase. #加密市场观察