Given the scale of Japanโs banking system, widespread use of XRP as a settlement bridge asset could have a meaningful impact on its price. To explore this scenario, we asked Google Gemini to estimate how high XRP could trade under an aggressive adoption model.
Gemini estimated XRPโs current market capitalization at approximately $120 billion, based on a price near $2. It then compared this valuation with the $9.65 trillion in assets held by Japanese banks and assumedโpurely for modeling purposesโthat XRPโs market cap could grow to 10% of that asset base.
Under this assumption, XRPโs market capitalization would reach approximately $965 billion. Dividing this figure by the circulating supply results in a hypothetical price of about $16.08 per XRP, representing an increase of roughly 800% from current levels.$XRP
If all banks in Japan start using XRP, how much might the price of XRP rise?
$XRP We recently assessed: If all banks in Japan begin to utilize XRP as a "bridge asset" for cross-border and interbank settlement, what level could the price of XRP potentially reach?
Currently, XRP is trading at around $2, but many market participants believe this price does not yet reflect the long-term utility value of this crypto asset. They believe that with broader adoption, especially with the participation of large financial institutions, the valuation of XRP is expected to rise significantly.
One market that could have a significant impact on XRP is the Japanese financial system. Ripple has established deep connections with banks and the payment industry in Japan over the years.
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โจ Japan's Huge Banking Scale
It is worth noting that Japan has one of the largest banking systems in the world (by total assets). The industry is dominated by three major banking groups:
Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group
Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group
Mizuho Financial Group
In addition, there are many regional banks, credit unions (Shinkin banks), and other financial institutions.
According to the latest comprehensive data from the Bank of Japan, as of the end of November 2024, the total assets of domestically licensed banks in Japan are approximately ยฅ1,447 trillion, equivalent to about $9.65 trillion.
Meanwhile, as of February 2025, the total deposits of all financial institutions are approximately ยฅ1,047 trillion (about $6.98 trillion), a year-on-year increase of 1.4%.
However, the growth of deposits has slowed down subsequently. It is expected that by November 2025, total deposits will increase to ยฅ1,060โ1,070 trillion, with an annual growth rate of about 1.5%. Among them:
Demand deposits are about ยฅ650 trillion
Time deposits are about ยฅ225 trillion (as of the end of February 2025)
In August 2025:
The loan-to-deposit ratio for large banks is about 40%โ50%
For regional banks, it is about 50%โ60%
For Shinkin banks, it is about 60%โ70%
The scale of securities investment is about ยฅ300โ350 trillion, accounting for approximately 40% of total assets.
Analyst Who Correctly Predicted XRP Crash to $1.88 Sets His Next Price Target
$XRP As noted by market expert Dark Defender, the XRP price has completed Wave 4 in its Elliot Wave pattern and is poised to soar over 200% from here. The XRP price is on the cusp of a significant movement, as the token has completed Wave 4 in its Elliot Wave pattern. As the altcoin continues to advance in line with predictions, market experts like Dark Defender set sights on a new target of $5.85 in Wave 5, an over 207% rise from the current price. โจBear Market Hasnโt Yet Started In a recent X post, crypto analyst Dark Defender shared his bullish perspectives on the XRP token. The analyst utilized Elliott Wave theory, asserting that XRP will achieve a new peak in this cycle.
Notably, Dark Defender has been tracking the Wave 4 since February 13, 2025. Based on his analysis, the token completed Wave A at $1.60 in April and Wave B at $3.66 in July. The analyst marked $1.88 as the completion point of Wave C of the Monthly Wave 4, which is now technically confirmed as done.
Dark Defender noted that he stayed calm during XRPโs price movements, identifying a key support zone between $2.2222 and $1.8815. While XRP dropped to this level, it managed to bounce back, completing Wave C of Wave 4 at $1.88. โจIgnore FUD In his previous analysis in February, Dark Defender urged investors and traders to ignore FUD (Fear, Uncertainty, Doubt) and instead focus on the potential developments. He presented a technical analysis chart for the XRP/USD pair, outlining its long-term projection based on historical market cycles and technical indicators. Using the Elliot Wave theory and Fibonacci levels, the expert identified the key support around $1.88, which has been tested and held firm during market corrections. According to his analysis, Waves 1 to 3 show a clear impulsive structure. Building on this momentum, Wave 4 has also unfolded as a healthy corrective phase, retracing toward the $1.90โ$2.00 zone in line with the 70.2% Fibonacci level. During this phase, the XRP price managed to stay above critical structural support and preserve the broader bullish trend. Currently, XRP is experiencing high volatility. At the time of writing, the crypto token trades for $1.88, down 5.6% in a day. This negative momentum is further bolstered by its weekly and monthly declines, having dropped 8% in a week and 16% in a month.
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$XRP spot ETFs have surpassed $1 billion in inflows since their launch in November.
US-based XRP spot ETFs reached a significant milestone on Monday as total inflows surpassed $1 billion, demonstrating growing institutional interest in altcoin ETFs. According to data from SoSoValue, XRP spot ETFs recorded net inflows of $10.89 million for the day, driven by funds from Canary, Grayscale, and Franklin Templeton. Since the launch of the first XRP spot ETF on November 13th, total inflows have reached $1 billion.
According to Vincent Liu, investment director at Kronos Research, this milestone reflects the growing demand for regulated crypto products beyond bitcoin and ethereum, especially as XRP sees positive legal progress. Conversely, spot bitcoin and ethereum ETFs have seen significant outflows, coinciding with a substantial bitcoin price drop amid renewed macroeconomic uncertainty.
$XRP spot ETFs have surpassed $1 billion in inflows since their launch in November.
US-based XRP spot ETFs reached a significant milestone on Monday as total inflows surpassed $1 billion, demonstrating growing institutional interest in altcoin ETFs. According to data from SoSoValue, XRP spot ETFs recorded net inflows of $10.89 million for the day, driven by funds from Canary, Grayscale, and Franklin Templeton. Since the launch of the first XRP spot ETF on November 13th, total inflows have reached $1 billion.
According to Vincent Liu, investment director at Kronos Research, this milestone reflects the growing demand for regulated crypto products beyond bitcoin and ethereum, especially as XRP sees positive legal progress. Conversely, spot bitcoin and ethereum ETFs have seen significant outflows, coinciding with a substantial bitcoin price drop amid renewed macroeconomic uncertainty.
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๐ย #BTC86kJPShock: Bitcoin Blasts Past ยฅ86K BarrierโJapanโs Crypto Scene Buzzing!
Bitcoin ($BTC ) has ignited the markets once again, triggering what traders are calling theย โJP Shockโย as it surges past the symbolicย ยฅ86,000ย mark (or local equivalent milestone depending on context). This unexpected breakout has energized investors across Japan, where crypto adoption continues rising rapidly.
๐ฅย Whatโs Driving the Shock?
Surging retail interestย from Japanese traders
Weaker yen dynamicsย pushing investors toward digital assets
Institutional accumulationย amid global market optimism
๐ฏ๐ตย Japanโs Growing Crypto Power
Japan remains one of the most active and regulatory-stable crypto hubs in Asia. As Bitcoin spikes, local exchanges are reporting:
Increased trading volume
New account registrations
Renewed interest in BTC as a hedge
๐ย Market Sentiment: Ultra-Bullish
Analysts note that if momentum continues, Bitcoinโs next major target could trigger another wave of interest not just in Japan but globally.