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Bitcoin Bull-Bear Game, Welcoming Technical Rebound? Key Pressure Remains at 102,000
Last night, after a downward spike, Bitcoin experienced a significant rebound, entering a short-term rebound phase.
Due to the significant volatility yesterday, today we will systematically review the logic from weekly → daily → 4-hour and 1-hour charts.
1. Weekly: The continuation logic after the structure shifts from bullish to bearish
1. The bearish trend starting from 124,000 has been confirmed
We pointed out the top risk at 124,000. Subsequently, the price dropped below the 50-week moving average of 100,200, which confirmed a trend reversal at this position. From the weekly structure perspective, this is not a simple pullback like in the past, but a clear shift from bullish to bearish.
Due to the significant volatility yesterday, today we will systematically review the logic from weekly → daily → 4-hour and 1-hour charts.
1. Weekly: The continuation logic after the structure shifts from bullish to bearish
1. The bearish trend starting from 124,000 has been confirmed
We pointed out the top risk at 124,000. Subsequently, the price dropped below the 50-week moving average of 100,200, which confirmed a trend reversal at this position. From the weekly structure perspective, this is not a simple pullback like in the past, but a clear shift from bullish to bearish.
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Bitcoin danger signal, another drop of 4,000 points, strong short-term bears, mid-term target pointing to 75,000
Today, I will mainly discuss the short-term market changes and operation suggestions.
1. Review of yesterday's market: 92,000 → 88,000, short-term short positions realized
Yesterday morning, the price was around 92,000. At that time, Bitcoin formed a typical double top structure on the hourly level, and a rebound occurred after the neckline broke, corresponding to the break of the previous low point.
Once this hourly inflection point is established, there is an opportunity to push the one-hour cycle out of a new reversal segment. Therefore, the viewpoint given yesterday was: short-term layout of short positions, with defense set at the previous high point.
1. Review of yesterday's market: 92,000 → 88,000, short-term short positions realized
Yesterday morning, the price was around 92,000. At that time, Bitcoin formed a typical double top structure on the hourly level, and a rebound occurred after the neckline broke, corresponding to the break of the previous low point.
Once this hourly inflection point is established, there is an opportunity to push the one-hour cycle out of a new reversal segment. Therefore, the viewpoint given yesterday was: short-term layout of short positions, with defense set at the previous high point.
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How will Bitcoin's short-term trajectory unfold? A comprehensive analysis of Ethereum's rebound limits and the best bottom-fishing zones in the spot market.
Today we will mainly discuss three questions that everyone is most concerned about:
Bitcoin's short-term trading plan, how should we layout next?
How much further can Ethereum drop?
When can we bottom fish in the spot market? At what prices is it more appropriate?
1. Bitcoin short-term trading plan: the rebound limit is likely at 102,000
■ The weekly level has shifted from bullish to bearish
The 50-week moving average at the weekly level has been effectively broken and stabilized below, indicating that the trend has shifted from weekly bullish to weekly bearish.
Once a reversal of this level occurs, it is very difficult to easily turn back.
Therefore, this rebound is essentially still a 'pullback' within a bearish trend.
Bitcoin's short-term trading plan, how should we layout next?
How much further can Ethereum drop?
When can we bottom fish in the spot market? At what prices is it more appropriate?
1. Bitcoin short-term trading plan: the rebound limit is likely at 102,000
■ The weekly level has shifted from bullish to bearish
The 50-week moving average at the weekly level has been effectively broken and stabilized below, indicating that the trend has shifted from weekly bullish to weekly bearish.
Once a reversal of this level occurs, it is very difficult to easily turn back.
Therefore, this rebound is essentially still a 'pullback' within a bearish trend.
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Has Bitcoin bottomed out? Expected deductions, three major questions explained at once: conditions for bottoming out, rebound targets, large cycle direction
Today we'll focus on three main questions:
1. Has the current decline already bottomed out?
2. If it has bottomed out, where can the rebound go? Will it reverse the trend?
3. Will the larger cycle continue to decline?
1. Has the current decline already bottomed out?
Let's first look at the 1-hour cycle.
After this bottom V reversal, we actually reminded at around 91,000 (last Friday, Saturday, and Sunday):
This type of 'bottom V reversal' is usually difficult to directly reverse a bearish trend into a bullish trend.
In other words, these small-level rebounds are often just corrections in the trend, rather than signals of a trend reversal.
1. Has the current decline already bottomed out?
2. If it has bottomed out, where can the rebound go? Will it reverse the trend?
3. Will the larger cycle continue to decline?
1. Has the current decline already bottomed out?
Let's first look at the 1-hour cycle.
After this bottom V reversal, we actually reminded at around 91,000 (last Friday, Saturday, and Sunday):
This type of 'bottom V reversal' is usually difficult to directly reverse a bearish trend into a bullish trend.
In other words, these small-level rebounds are often just corrections in the trend, rather than signals of a trend reversal.
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Accurate prediction, Bitcoin fell from 91,000 to 87,000, the key deduction is here
Accurate prediction, Bitcoin fell from 91,000 to 87,000, the key deduction is here
The market experienced a significant sharp drop this morning, with Bitcoin's price falling from above 91,000 to around 87,000, a single drop of over 4,000 points, which is a standard rapid decline structure.
On Sunday, we had already made our views very clear in advance:
This rebound should not chase the highs; it is highly likely that a new decline will follow, testing the previous low around 80,000, and further breakdowns cannot be ruled out.
This logic was also discussed in the video the day before yesterday: after the rebound ends, look towards testing the previous low.
The market experienced a significant sharp drop this morning, with Bitcoin's price falling from above 91,000 to around 87,000, a single drop of over 4,000 points, which is a standard rapid decline structure.
On Sunday, we had already made our views very clear in advance:
This rebound should not chase the highs; it is highly likely that a new decline will follow, testing the previous low around 80,000, and further breakdowns cannot be ruled out.
This logic was also discussed in the video the day before yesterday: after the rebound ends, look towards testing the previous low.
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Core Interpretation, Bitcoin Expected Reasoning, Structural Adjustment, Beware of Dramatic Drops
Recently, some friends think that the market may reverse, and they hope I can explain the expected path of Bitcoin's future more clearly. Let me reorganize the overall reasoning.
1. Two possibilities for Bitcoin's future (I lean towards the second direction)
I'll first mention the two possibilities discussed yesterday.
① Possibility one: Wave 5 downward ends → 3-wave rebound → then a further decline (lower probability)
This structure is:
The current position has just completed a wave 5 downward;
Next, a 3-wave rebound will occur, currently only one wave has been completed;
1. Two possibilities for Bitcoin's future (I lean towards the second direction)
I'll first mention the two possibilities discussed yesterday.
① Possibility one: Wave 5 downward ends → 3-wave rebound → then a further decline (lower probability)
This structure is:
The current position has just completed a wave 5 downward;
Next, a 3-wave rebound will occur, currently only one wave has been completed;
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Key Interpretation of Bitcoin, Structural Judgment, Expectation Inference and Current Key Points
The current two main expectations
Yesterday I mentioned that there are currently two possible structural trends in the market, and today I will continue to elaborate.
Expectation 1: 5-wave decline ends → A 3-wave rebound is coming (small possibility)
If we consider the recent trend as a standard 5-wave decline, then there is a chance of a 3-wave rebound next.
The current two main expectations
Yesterday I mentioned that there are currently two possible structural trends in the market, and today I will continue to elaborate.
Expectation 1: 5-wave decline ends → A 3-wave rebound is coming (small possibility)
Yesterday I mentioned that there are currently two possible structural trends in the market, and today I will continue to elaborate.
Expectation 1: 5-wave decline ends → A 3-wave rebound is coming (small possibility)
If we consider the recent trend as a standard 5-wave decline, then there is a chance of a 3-wave rebound next.
The current two main expectations
Yesterday I mentioned that there are currently two possible structural trends in the market, and today I will continue to elaborate.
Expectation 1: 5-wave decline ends → A 3-wave rebound is coming (small possibility)
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