专业打狗人

日本央行或将历史性加息，全球市场面临“便宜钱”终结时刻

本周五，日本央行可能将利率上调至0.75%，创1995年以来新高。这一举动不仅关乎日本国内货币政策，更可能引发全球资本流向的结构性变化——尤其是对加密市场而言，长期依赖“廉价日元”套利的热钱游戏或将迎来转折点。

为什么日本加息会冲击加密市场？
过去数十年，“借日元、投全球”成为国际资本的常规操作。大量低成本日元被兑换为美元，流入美股、美债及加密货币等高风险资产。若日本利率显著上升，套利成本增加将迫使部分资金回流，可能引发跨市场连锁抛售。

更深层影响：最后一个零利率经济体“转身”
日本是全球主要经济体中最后一个维持零利率的国家。其货币政策转向，象征着全球持续数十年的超低利率时代正式落幕。资金成本系统性上升，可能持续压制比特币等风险资产的估值空间。

接下来需要关注的信号：

💵美元兑日元汇率是否快速走弱
📉 美股科技股是否出现同步回调
🏦 交易所比特币存量是否显著增加
🌐 全球流动性指标是否出现紧缩迹象

日本加息究竟是牛市的压力测试，还是趋势转折的信号？市场即将给出答案。在这个宏观波动加剧的阶段，保持警惕、灵活应对，才是穿越周期的关键。

👉 Ave.ai，全球领先的链上聚合交易平台$BTC

Trump's Speech on Thursday: 4 Key Points the Cryptocurrency Circle Needs to Focus On

Trump will deliver a nationwide speech at 10 AM Eastern Time on Thursday (10 PM Beijing Time on Thursday), and mainstream media has confirmed the news. The theme of the speech has not been announced yet, but it is expected to review his administration's achievements and preview future policy directions.

Such golden hour speeches are typical market sentiment events, especially during macro-sensitive periods, where fluctuations in the cryptocurrency market are often amplified. Its impact does not directly involve cryptocurrencies, but rather acts indirectly by changing market risk appetite, and the following aspects need to be closely monitored:

• Trade/Tariff Policy: The strength of the wording will affect the dollar's trend and the sentiment of risk assets, and the cryptocurrency circle usually fluctuates accordingly.

• Fiscal and Taxation: Expansionary fiscal policies may boost risk appetite, while contraction may lead to cautious funding.

• Financial Regulatory Attitude: If the strengthening of regulation or enforcement is mentioned, it may trigger short-term market fluctuations.

• Geopolitical Security Issues: When significant international events are involved, the market often first exhibits a risk-averse reaction.

The market may show two types of trends for reference:

1. Sentiment Repair: If risk appetite rises after the speech, altcoins may experience a short-term rebound, but caution is required for a pullback after an early rush.

2. Amplified Volatility: Short-term funds may withdraw in advance, leading to intensified losses, and altcoins usually fluctuate more violently than Bitcoin and Ethereum.

Operational Suggestions:

• Treat this event as a risk window and avoid high-leverage bets on direction before and after the speech.

• Pay close attention to whether $BTC Bitcoin holds key support levels, and whether altcoins show synchronized volume increases or decreases.

• Real opportunities often arise after the market completes pricing following the speech, rather than at the moment the news is announced.

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What else can we play with this wave of the market meme dog?

The current meme dog track has changed its gameplay. You either clear out and rest, waiting for a big market; or if you still want to play, you must adhere to the iron rule of 'only play what you think is stable'.

Liquidity is currently tight, and you should never go P on new projects. Each time you P, your funds decrease, unless you are like those frontrunners with 'infinite bullets', otherwise you're just providing fuel for the project team. Yesterday, a bunch of KOLs called for the #RocketDog, and it's likely that many got stuck. In the current projects, if the first wave of ATH drops down, don't expect a second wave unless it drops 80%-90%, otherwise entering the market will be like climbing halfway up a mountain.

Additionally, for those already on Binance Alpha, it's advisable not to touch them. Projects like #Hakimi and #NastyPenguin are already a thing of the past. The vitality of meme dogs lies in emotion and novelty; being on Alpha basically means announcing graduation, and the subsequent trend mostly follows the market, with very little odds space. What can be played now are those projects that are not yet on Alpha, have their own active community, long-term narratives, and stable expectations, which you can buy into at the right time.

In simple terms: Playing meme dogs now is about who can survive longer, not who can rush harder. Of course, whatever gameplay you choose, you can't do without reliable tools. For example, I use AVE to monitor the market, check contracts, and follow community sentiment, which helps me see more clearly what is 'stable' and avoid rushing blindly. In this kind of market, good tools are your second bullet. #美国非农数据超预期 #ave

1000u Bonus💰 A Step-by-Step Guide to Earning Airdrops!
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The total prize pool for this event is 3000U, and the first place will take home 1000U. This is a creative benefit before the end of the year; not participating would be a huge loss～

The rules of the event are super simple, no tricks involved and it's not brain-burning: As long as you publish an original video of ≥10 seconds on Twitter between December 16 and 28, in any style, talking about how you’ve used AVE to invest in altcoins, share your earnings, discuss your insights, etc., you will have a chance to share in the 3000U prize pool.

Use your speed in investing to edit a video, it's like earning money for free! When the market is frustrating, isn't it nice to steadily earn some creative bonuses?

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BlackRock formally submitted its Ethereum staking ETF application, and the market landscape may undergo significant changes.
Wall Street legend analyst Tom Lee once again stated: $ETH ETH target $62,500! Ethereum upgrade!
Three signals have long warned:

Whales have continuously converted $BTC BTC into ETH for 18 days, accumulating at low levels.
The U.S. spot ETH ETF saw a weekly net inflow of over $200 million, with institutional funds quietly positioning themselves.
Macroeconomic pressure is easing, and the impact of the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike is limited.
Why is this time different?
1. BlackRock's move: The world's largest asset management institution is entering the market; once approved, traditional funds will flood in through compliant channels.
2. Tom Lee's bullish logic: Explosive ecological demand + staking yields + deflationary model + ETF expectations, driven by three factors: capital, fundamentals, and sentiment.
3. The true meaning of the staking ETF: Ordinary investors can hold ETH and earn staking yields through their stock accounts with one click, significantly lowering the security threshold, and the "rush to buy effect" may soon arrive.
The market has shifted from "waiting for the wind" to "going with the flow." The key now is not whether to rise, but "how high will it rise, and how fast."
The market always starts in fear and peaks in frenzy. BlackRock has already rushed in; will you choose to position yourself early or wait for FOMO to chase higher?
Interactive topic:
Do you believe ETH will break its previous high, or do you think BTC will continue to lead the rise?
If the ETF is approved, will you buy in immediately?
After using so many on-chain trading platforms, Ave.ai is genuinely a no-brainer! Covering 130+ public chains and 300+ DEXs, the mainstream ecosystems of SOL, BSC, and ETH are all handled in one go, no more switching between apps, super easy for beginners～

🔥2025 Global Cryptocurrency Overview｜It's not too late to catch the wealth train!
📈 Core Data Dispatch: 1⃣ Global crypto users surpass 800 million! 2⃣ Bitcoin market cap stabilizes at $15 trillion 3⃣ Total locked value in DeFi triples compared to 2023
💎 Three major trends you must know: ✅ Acceleration of compliance - New regulations in the US and Hong Kong leading the way Traditional institutions' entry barriers lowered, the era of dirty money ends! Over 120 licenses issued by various countries
✅ RWA (Real World Assets) Explosion Year Tokenization scale of real estate/government bonds reaches $2 trillion🔝 🌟 Recommended to follow: $ONDO $POLYX
✅ The era of smart wallets has arrived Account abstraction technology matures, goodbye to mnemonic phrase fear! Gas fees down 70%🚀
⚠️ Risk Warning Zone: ❗️MEME coin regulations tightening - Multiple exchanges delisting anonymous projects ❗️Cross-chain bridge attacks resulted in a loss of $1.8 billion last year - Be sure to choose mainstream bridges! ❗️New regulations in the Asia-Pacific region: Exchanges must operate with licenses (35 have been approved)
🌍 Regional Heat Map: North America: ETF Phase II products approved Europe: CBDC pilot covers 19 countries Asia: Hong Kong issues first stablecoin license Middle East: Sovereign fund allocation to BTC reaches 5%
💡 2025 Survival Guide:
Allocate 40% of positions to $BTC BTC + $ETH ETH
Focus on compliant RWA projects (annualized 6-8%)
Use multi-signature wallets + hardware cold storage
Avoid "super high yield" mining projects (90% are scams)
📊 On-chain signals: • Whale addresses increase reach a six-month high • NFT liquidity mining APY returns to rationality • Layer 2 quarterly trading volume surpasses mainnet for the first time
✨ Summary: From wild growth to institutional improvement, 2025 is a golden window for ordinary people to enter safely! Remember: Hold spot > chase hotspots, compliant tracks > anonymous projects.
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Many people must have been bewildered when they looked at the market this morning: Clearly, the news is all over saying "The Federal Reserve has cut interest rates", so why is BTC not rising but instead plummeting? Could it be fake news?
​Don't worry, let's translate the dry financial jargon from the news into plain language, and you'll understand why this is actually a "sugar-coated bomb".
​1. The so-called good news is all "old news"
​News fact: The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point rate cut, lowering the rate to 3.50%-3.75%.
Plain interpretation:
It's like you are a child (the market), you scored 60 points, and your dad (the Federal Reserve) promised you last month to buy you a PS5. When the PS5 is brought home today, will you jump for joy? No, because you already knew about it.
Crypto logic: The market had long anticipated this 25 basis point cut; smart money had already bought in and positioned itself half a month ago. When the news was announced today and the good news was realized, those who had positioned themselves took profits (Sell the News), which led to the market crash.
​2. The future "big cake" has shrunk (this is the core of the crash!)
​News fact: The dot plot shows that only one rate cut is expected in 2026.
Plain interpretation:
This is the most critical part! Originally, the market's gamblers thought that next year (2026) the Federal Reserve would continuously cut rates like handing out candy, flooding the market with liquidity, and the crypto bull market would take off.
But then Powell (the Federal Reserve chairman) said coldly today: "There won't be much candy next year, maybe just one piece for you."
Crypto logic: Since there won't be much liquidity next year, money will still be tight, and the cost of capital will remain high. The anticipated bull market engine has stalled halfway, and of course, the bulls will be scared and rush to escape.
​3. Internal "fighting" within the Federal Reserve, hawks are rising
​News fact: In the voting, three people voted against, and someone even suggested not to cut rates.
Recently tried using ave to test the waters just got a small car #ave #美联储降息 $BTC

This time it was a bit different compared to April, but it can be understood.
The software made with ave is quite good.
You can try #ave $BTC

Hot topic:
$DOYR DOYR has been listed on Binance Alpha, I wondered why it suddenly skyrocketed, congratulations to the brothers who held on! It seems that in the future, we should only focus on the perspectives of cz and He Yi, as long as it is related to them, the worst will be Alpha, and the better will be contract spot! For example, $Binance life, $4....
I recommend everyone use the AVE signal square to capture the golden dog at the first moment, and for BSC dogs, just go to AVE.

I witnessed the cryptocurrency market wake up from the illusion of a high point of 126K this week. The "Black Monday" on December 1st directly knocked me awake—on that day, $BTC BTC plummeted from an opening of 90K to 83K, a drop of 8%, and ETH also fell sharply by 10%, with the entire market experiencing a liquidation of 985 million, leaving 270,000 people embarrassed as they exited. It felt like being hit with a blunt object: clearly, in November, it pretended to be prosperous, how could it crash just like that?
Later, I reviewed the reasons and realized this was a triple whammy of macro factors + leverage + selling pressure. The Fed's interest rate cut expectations were halved from 92% to 50%, and everyone suddenly realized that inflation isn't so easy to cool down, with liquidity tightening at the margins; the yen arbitrage unwinding was like dominoes, global risk aversion spread, and when the NASDAQ turned green, it amplified the high beta attributes of cryptocurrencies; coupled with MicroStrategy reducing purchases by 93% and BlackRock's 120M BTC FUD entering the exchange, institutional year-end closures + tax season selling pressure all came together, directly blowing up the long positions with an open interest of 160 billion.
This crash reminded me of the FTX incident in 2022, but this time it was a lot more buffered—institutions accounted for 60%, the hash rate was steadily up by 5.3%, and the MVRV of 1.55 indicated undervaluation. In the short term, I see 90K as support; if it can't hold, it might test 80K; but in the medium term, I'm optimistic, with the Fed report being dovish (December 6) + Japan's tax reform unlocking a trillion yen + ETH Fusaka upgrade (L2 fees down 60%), these positives will pull up a rebound; the historical average increase of 9.7% in December isn't without reason.
In short, this crash is not a restart of a bear market but rather the "harshest cleansing" before a bull market—I have already increased my holdings at lower prices, preparing to wait for institutional buy signals to sustain. Dips are opportunities, but don't go all in, be rational and do your own research; the bull market is still on the way!
I recommend a useful software ave.ai! The signal square has alerts! #比特币VS代币化黄金

Breaking news! BlackRock has pulled out some pocket money again and sent a 'small gift' to Ethereum!
The recently revealed news indicates that the asset management giant BlackRock has made another move, purchasing Ethereum worth $28.78 million ($ETH ). Sounds like a lot? But in the eyes of BlackRock, which manages nearly $10 trillion in assets, this amount is as casual as buying a cup of coffee for an ordinary person.
This operation has left people scratching their heads:
1. Is it a "temperature check" or "showing off strength"? Less than thirty million dollars doesn't even count as a position for BlackRock. It feels more like a public "stress test" to see how the market reacts to its entrance.
2. The signal is greater than the amount: BlackRock buying Bitcoin ETFs is an open secret, and now they are touching Ethereum. This is equivalent to sending a message to traditional funds: "Don’t just watch the excitement, this pool is open for you to dive in." The narrative ceiling has been pushed a bit higher.
3. Your opportunity? It might be your trap! The big players will never tell you their real entry costs and complete plans. By the time you see the news and follow the trend, they might already be sitting in their carriages, waiting for you and other retail investors to help carry them.
Remember, in the financial world, the big players' "small purchases" are never about making money; they are about sending signals, testing the winds, and attracting your attention. Your FOMO (fear of missing out) is part of their plan.

Recently, the market has been pretty good, and I've been monitoring the chain using ave daily. Before going to bed yesterday, I saw a group friend shout to get in on $miner, at that time the market cap was still over 2 million; this IP is no doubt, never give up, people in the circle and outside are using this narrative. When I woke up in the morning, I saw it had already taken off, reaching a high of 4 million, feeling great!

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The economic situation has been ridiculously good recently.
Interest rates have been cut again and again!
The bull market has arrived recently! Hurry up and place your order with ave!!! #ave
#美联储重启降息步伐

Explosive pull!!!! Yesterday, the internal market went from 10k to 2m today!!!
Will it become the first Chinese animal meme?

$Little, a token inspired by the adorable sea lion.

🔥 Trade BSC Golden Dog, just go to Ave.ai! $BTC #ETH走势分析 #ave

What the hell? Trump is up to something again!!!! He will make a major statement at 3 AM... Speechless

What could it be? Attacking Venezuela? Announcing the new chair of the Federal Reserve? Tariff-related policies? Drug reform measures?

Will a few golden dogs pop up again? Waiting on Ave

37K ⟶ 158K, woke up in the morning after following friends to get on the bus, earned a few hundred dollars easily and got back what I lost from $BTC !
Making a comeback isn't that mysterious; sometimes it's just about following the right signal and using the right tool!!!!
Highly recommend Ave.ai, the on-chain tool that everyone in the crypto world is using, easily capturing hundred-fold and thousand-fold golden dogs, starting a comeback life! #ave $BTC

$Mǎ Xiánxián, BSC annual big IP, CCTV Year of the Horse Spring Festival Gala mascot - Mǎ Xiánxián, has a high level of discussion among the Chinese people, currently in a relatively low position, partners who are optimistic should get in quickly, use ave to avoid getting lost, an incredibly useful software $BTC #ave

How much leverage is reasonable for perpetual contracts! $ETH $BTC
Before answering this question, let me briefly explain what a perpetual contract is. A perpetual contract, as its name suggests, is a contract with a perpetual renewal period. In the current cryptocurrency derivatives trading market, perpetual contracts are considered a relatively new type of contract. The meaning of a perpetual contract is that, under the premise of not being liquidated, if you do not actively close your position, you can hold this contract indefinitely. So how much leverage is reasonable when trading? Someone asked me this question yesterday, so I’ll talk about it today.
Yesterday I discussed with a fellow trader, and he usually uses 50x leverage or 30x leverage. Taking Bitcoin as an example, 30x leverage requires 16U, 50x leverage requires 10U, and 100x requires 5U. In the same market conditions, my personal suggestion is to only use 100x leverage. Why? Because once you use leverage in contracts, whether it’s 1x or 100x, you are taking on leverage risk. In the same market conditions, the returns from 1x leverage and 100x leverage are vastly different. At this point, some may say that the risk of 1x leverage is smaller, which is true, but taking Bitcoin as an example, if you use 1x leverage, currently one contract requires over 470U. Without significant price increases, you will definitely incur losses, as there are transaction costs involved. Moreover, even if there is a small profit without significant price increases, it won’t be much. What I want to express is that since you have chosen to trade with leveraged contracts, you should maximize the use of this leverage and only use 100x leverage. In many cases, what happens is that traders use thin capital to engage in contracts that do not match their current funds. With little margin, they cannot support current market conditions, which may lead to liquidation in a slightly volatile market. Later, when a profitable market comes, it has nothing to do with you, and at that point, the contracts we hold become invalid. Therefore, when trading perpetual contracts, under the conditions that allow it, we should adequately prepare more of our margin as a precaution. Regardless of what investment we make, there are risks involved. What we need to do is to minimize those risks and then look at the benefits.
I generally find ave reminders quite useful.

The big news is here! Kanye is launching a coin on the blockchain worth $3B!
Today, the crypto world exploded: Kanye West (now called Ye) has surprisingly released a MemeCoin on Solana called YZY, along with "Ye Pay" and "YZY Card" being revealed, claiming to create a "new economy on the chain"! As soon as it launched, YZY's market cap soared to about 3 billion USD, which is considered an "epic speed"—but it quickly plummeted.

What's even more shocking is that on-chain data shows that as much as 94% of the tokens are controlled by a few people, this distribution concentration is simply outrageous. Is it a template copy of “celebrity coin + harvesting retail investors”?

Some people feel this play is “too Kanye”: launching 25 contract addresses (only one can actually be traded, preventing machine snatching, almost like leaving a chance for the “retail investors”? But others think: this is a premeditated “operational rhythm,” where insiders can make tens of times profit in a flash.

Retail investors need to be cautious:
This is more like a “celebrity experiment” rather than a stable wealth tool.
No practical ecology, soaring and then crashing?
Centralized distribution, who is the retail investor and who gets harvested is clearer.
Use ave to avoid getting lost #ave