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十年币圈黄飞鸿

2014年初次接触btc.2017年正式开启交易生涯,币圈十年老韭菜,起起伏伏,感受颇深!不断自我总结修行!适可而止!等待机会!空仓休息!市场热度最高最疯狂的时候一定要学会撤离!被割了一定要止损休息调整心态!没有一个健康的心态就不要玩这个圈子!博弈 等待 信念 不贪!方能盈利!币圈避险专家平均一个月避险3次以上!
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Originally expected to start escaping the peak on October 16 Man's calculations are no match for the heavens As a result, the market manipulators smashed the market a few days earlier In fact, whenever BTC rises for 7 consecutive days and BNB surges, one should run However, the vision of a big rise in October has indeed deceived too many people It's impossible to escape every time Position management is indeed very important‼️ If most people choose to hold half their positions during this big drop Losses can also be reduced by half! Everyone is betting on the altcoin season, but unfortunately, the market manipulators chose a different track Binance life and other coins replaced the altcoin season The trade war is the biggest uncertainty, and no one is willing to pay for uncertainties. So resting♨️ is the best! It's best to wait for the trade war to be resolved before looking for entry opportunities. Since May, BTC has stabilized at 100,000 and has been continuously washed and promoted for 6 months, with historical highs being broken time and again, it should take a break. The U.S. stock market has only dropped 4 points from its peak while BTC has dropped 20 points! If the Nasdaq drops to around 18,500, will BTC go to around 80,000! After all, some companies in the U.S. stock market have suddenly surged 30-50 points since September on certain days. After a surge often comes a crash. For those at the top, they don't care how much it drops because they have already escaped the market in advance. What they care about is national interest, above everything else, the common people are just ants, as long as they don't cause trouble. As long as they can have enough to eat. There is a reason why it is cold at high altitudes. Since April, the Nasdaq has accumulated a rise of 60 points, and stocks like Tesla, Nvidia, and Intel have directly doubled. After all, the focus of Americans is the U.S. stock market, and for Wall Street, an annual return rate above 30% is already considered super good. Historically, institutions behind Wall Street are grateful if they can maintain a return rate above 9% for a year, let alone this year's significant rise. Moreover, BTC rebounded 69 points from its lowest point in April, and ETH directly tripled.
Originally expected to start escaping the peak on October 16

Man's calculations are no match for the heavens

As a result, the market manipulators smashed the market a few days earlier

In fact, whenever BTC rises for 7 consecutive days and BNB surges, one should run

However, the vision of a big rise in October has indeed deceived too many people

It's impossible to escape every time

Position management is indeed very important‼️

If most people choose to hold half their positions during this big drop

Losses can also be reduced by half!

Everyone is betting on the altcoin season, but unfortunately, the market manipulators chose a different track

Binance life and other coins replaced the altcoin season

The trade war is the biggest uncertainty, and no one is willing to pay for uncertainties. So resting♨️ is the best!
It's best to wait for the trade war to be resolved before looking for entry opportunities.

Since May, BTC has stabilized at 100,000 and has been continuously washed and promoted for 6 months, with historical highs being broken time and again, it should take a break. The U.S. stock market has only dropped 4 points from its peak while BTC has dropped 20 points!

If the Nasdaq drops to around 18,500, will BTC go to around 80,000! After all, some companies in the U.S. stock market have suddenly surged 30-50 points since September on certain days. After a surge often comes a crash.

For those at the top, they don't care how much it drops because they have already escaped the market in advance. What they care about is national interest, above everything else, the common people are just ants, as long as they don't cause trouble. As long as they can have enough to eat.

There is a reason why it is cold at high altitudes. Since April, the Nasdaq has accumulated a rise of 60 points, and stocks like Tesla, Nvidia, and Intel have directly doubled. After all, the focus of Americans is the U.S. stock market, and for Wall Street, an annual return rate above 30% is already considered super good. Historically, institutions behind Wall Street are grateful if they can maintain a return rate above 9% for a year, let alone this year's significant rise.

Moreover, BTC rebounded 69 points from its lowest point in April, and ETH directly tripled.
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Reminder ⏰ Buy BTC and altcoins in batches around 74.5k-76k Downward momentum is weakening Currently, over 75% of the last bearish news has been released I built a position at 2:00 PM this afternoon If Dongda does not counter tomorrow Then everything looks good, improving!
Reminder ⏰ Buy BTC and altcoins in batches around 74.5k-76k

Downward momentum is weakening

Currently, over 75% of the last bearish news has been released

I built a position at 2:00 PM this afternoon

If Dongda does not counter tomorrow

Then everything looks good, improving!
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Christmas🎄 is approaching The US stock market is unlikely to continue rising significantly Including gold and silver It would be good if the market can remain stable without a big drop! BTC will continue to fluctuate between 8.45-9.45w Currently, BTC cannot break through 9w and still faces the risk of continuing to test around 8.6! The rise in the US stock market has not driven a big rise in the crypto market, which only indicates that smart money is particularly cautious in viewing the market! At least they are not daring to go all in! They can only test the waters cautiously!
Christmas🎄 is approaching

The US stock market is unlikely to continue rising significantly

Including gold and silver

It would be good if the market can remain stable without a big drop!

BTC will continue to fluctuate between 8.45-9.45w

Currently, BTC cannot break through 9w and still faces the risk of continuing to test around 8.6!

The rise in the US stock market has not driven a big rise in the crypto market, which only indicates that smart money is particularly cautious in viewing the market! At least they are not daring to go all in! They can only test the waters cautiously!
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Reminder⏰ My fan friends BTC has bounced back twice in the recent three days around 84.5k-85k If planning to trade in the short term, you can consider entering around 85k The market manipulation by the whales has been rapid, precise, and ruthless for two months and one week However, for those of us who are holding cash and observing, we should not be scared out of our wits As long as BTC does not drop below 83.8k, you can enter! If it drops, just cut losses and wait!
Reminder⏰
My fan friends

BTC has bounced back twice in the recent three days around 84.5k-85k

If planning to trade in the short term, you can consider entering around 85k

The market manipulation by the whales has been rapid, precise, and ruthless for two months and one week

However, for those of us who are holding cash and observing, we should not be scared out of our wits

As long as BTC does not drop below 83.8k, you can enter! If it drops, just cut losses and wait!
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Negative news ended🔚 btc 8.45-8.55 can enter
Negative news ended🔚 btc 8.45-8.55 can enter
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Currently, everyone is waiting for BTC to drop back to the low point of 75,000 from April, or even lower, to enter the market. The situation at that time was caused by the trade war, and the current situation is nothing more than speculation on Japan's interest rate hike to shake out positions! After the speculation ends, there will still be a rebound! If BTC drops back to around 75,000, it's very likely that the big players won't give most people this opportunity! The U.S. stock market is frighteningly strong, and so is gold!
Currently, everyone is waiting for BTC to drop back to the low point of 75,000 from April, or even lower, to enter the market. The situation at that time was caused by the trade war, and the current situation is nothing more than speculation on Japan's interest rate hike to shake out positions!

After the speculation ends, there will still be a rebound!

If BTC drops back to around 75,000, it's very likely that the big players won't give most people this opportunity!

The U.S. stock market is frighteningly strong, and so is gold!
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Reminder ⏰ The US stock market and BTC have mostly fallen rather than risen in the week around Christmas 🎄 This year, those playing in the US stock market have made a fortune They won't be foolish enough to take profits and go on vacation If you ask me if there will be a big market in 2026 I can tell you plainly that there will definitely be a good market appearing between February and June 2026! Currently, most altcoins have seen significant declines When ETH reaches between 2380 and 2480, please remember to buy the dip! Don't expect ETH to reach the low point of around 1400 from April this year! It won't go that low!
Reminder ⏰

The US stock market and BTC have mostly fallen rather than risen in the week around Christmas 🎄

This year, those playing in the US stock market have made a fortune

They won't be foolish enough to take profits and go on vacation

If you ask me if there will be a big market in 2026

I can tell you plainly that there will definitely be a good market appearing between February and June 2026!

Currently, most altcoins have seen significant declines

When ETH reaches between 2380 and 2480, please remember to buy the dip!

Don't expect ETH to reach the low point of around 1400 from April this year!
It won't go that low!
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BTC is getting closer to the bottom area according to the current trend. Currently, I feel that at least half of the position should be bought between 70,000 and 75,000. Even a six-layer position. The extreme pullback of BTC might just touch around 68,500 to 69,000. Currently, why is the Nasdaq in the US stock market still at a high level, while BTC has dropped more than 30 points? The funds globally that are optimistic about the crypto market are still in a state of panic and hesitation; they are afraid that if the US stock market crashes, BTC will drop even more! In fact, BTC has already dropped in advance! It hasn’t reached a relatively satisfactory price, and institutions also do not want to step in!
BTC is getting closer to the bottom area according to the current trend.

Currently, I feel that at least half of the position should be bought between 70,000 and 75,000.

Even a six-layer position.

The extreme pullback of BTC might just touch around 68,500 to 69,000.

Currently, why is the Nasdaq in the US stock market still at a high level, while BTC has dropped more than 30 points?

The funds globally that are optimistic about the crypto market are still in a state of panic and hesitation; they are afraid that if the US stock market crashes, BTC will drop even more! In fact, BTC has already dropped in advance!

It hasn’t reached a relatively satisfactory price, and institutions also do not want to step in!
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Two months ago, I said BTC would drop to around 85,000 No one believed me Now BTC is back around 85,000 Fortunately, I was out of the market two months ago Otherwise, I would have lost a lot! The ruthlessness of this market's washout is the harshest!
Two months ago, I said BTC would drop to around 85,000

No one believed me

Now BTC is back around 85,000

Fortunately, I was out of the market two months ago

Otherwise, I would have lost a lot!

The ruthlessness of this market's washout is the harshest!
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Financial Market: 80% of the time in fluctuation Only a 10% chance of a large rise Only a 10% chance of a large drop The cryptocurrency market is no different
Financial Market: 80% of the time in fluctuation
Only a 10% chance of a large rise
Only a 10% chance of a large drop
The cryptocurrency market is no different
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Shu Qin reminds everyone to short BTC near 88,800 So the market maker won't let her go, which means Shu Qin near 97,000 exploded, and the rebound is likely to end 🔚
Shu Qin reminds everyone to short BTC near 88,800

So the market maker won't let her go, which means Shu Qin near 97,000
exploded, and the rebound is likely to end 🔚
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The Trump family's investment in the mining company dropped by 40 points The Trump family may be involved in manipulating the cryptocurrency market Everyone take note The volatility of the cryptocurrency market this year has been extremely high February 3, April 7, June 22, October 11, November 21 The sharp declines mentioned above are all related to the Trump family
The Trump family's investment in the mining company dropped by 40 points

The Trump family may be involved in manipulating the cryptocurrency market

Everyone take note

The volatility of the cryptocurrency market this year has been extremely high

February 3, April 7, June 22, October 11, November 21

The sharp declines mentioned above are all related to the Trump family
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If you have experienced three rounds of bull and bear markets You will find that after each bull market ends, there is a mess left behind At the end of December 2017, the BTC bull market peaked at $19,800 At the end of December 2018, the BTC bear market dropped to $3,100, a decline of 85% In October-November 2021, the BTC bull market peaked at $69,800💲 Between October and December 2022, BTC fell to a low of $15,000, a retreat of 80% In October 2025, BTC will reach $126,000💲 If there is no institutional support, this round of bear market would at least see BTC at a 20% discount With institutional support, it would still be at a 40-50% discount, which would attract funds to buy the dip Institutions hold at most 30% of the total BTC supply Retail investors and large holders are the biggest owners!
If you have experienced three rounds of bull and bear markets

You will find that after each bull market ends, there is a mess left behind

At the end of December 2017, the BTC bull market peaked at $19,800

At the end of December 2018, the BTC bear market dropped to $3,100, a decline of 85%

In October-November 2021, the BTC bull market peaked at $69,800💲

Between October and December 2022, BTC fell to a low of $15,000, a retreat of 80%

In October 2025, BTC will reach $126,000💲

If there is no institutional support, this round of bear market would at least see BTC at a 20% discount

With institutional support, it would still be at a 40-50% discount, which would attract funds to buy the dip

Institutions hold at most 30% of the total BTC supply

Retail investors and large holders are the biggest owners!
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The survival rate of altcoins ranked beyond 100 is less than 20% Since 2017, most altcoins have a survival rate of less than 20% The survival rate of the top 50 altcoins is only 50% The survival rate of the top 20 altcoins is only 60% For example, fil dot was once ranked in the top 10 The popular altcoins from 2017 to 2020 include sbtc true and Gongxinbao Rcn Gtc Huizhou Thunderstorm is the micro-business of that time HC Deep Brain Chain ink Dpy Yee By the way, there are also btm bts eos, these coins have almost gone to zero The coins that survived are only doge bch xrp ltc Currently, it seems that only doge and xrp have outperformed in several rounds of bull and bear markets. Four years ago, doge was 2 cents each before Musk's promotion, and it surged to over 4 yuan each. If doge falls back to the range of 2 to 5 dimes each, there might be substantial buying funds for bottom hunting If there are still people who bought the above coins from 2017 to now, it shows that they are old hands, having experienced at least three rounds of bull and bear markets! To be honest, the old hands from 2017 to now who can remain steady without doing any crazy operations and only hold btc and eth, holding them for so many years and firmly maintaining the spot to this day are very few, one in a million! Because in 2018, btc fell from 19.8k to 3100 dollars In 2021, btc peaked at 69.8k and fell back to 15.2k by the end of 2022 💲 Retail investors who can avoid being washed out really are rare! Unless there is a mine at home! The intensity of wash trading in this circle can truly be described as thorough and clean! Those without faith may have their bones chewed up completely! Especially users holding large amounts of altcoins! After a few years, they have watched their altcoins plummet by dozens of times and get delisted!
The survival rate of altcoins ranked beyond 100 is less than 20%

Since 2017, most altcoins have a survival rate of less than 20%

The survival rate of the top 50 altcoins is only 50%
The survival rate of the top 20 altcoins is only 60%
For example, fil dot was once ranked in the top 10

The popular altcoins from 2017 to 2020 include sbtc true and Gongxinbao

Rcn Gtc Huizhou Thunderstorm is the micro-business of that time HC Deep Brain Chain
ink Dpy Yee By the way, there are also btm bts eos, these coins have almost gone to zero

The coins that survived are only doge bch xrp ltc
Currently, it seems that only doge and xrp have outperformed in several rounds of bull and bear markets. Four years ago, doge was 2 cents each before Musk's promotion, and it surged to over 4 yuan each. If doge falls back to the range of 2 to 5 dimes each, there might be substantial buying funds for bottom hunting

If there are still people who bought the above coins from 2017 to now, it shows that they are old hands, having experienced at least three rounds of bull and bear markets!

To be honest, the old hands from 2017 to now who can remain steady without doing any crazy operations and only hold btc and eth, holding them for so many years and firmly maintaining the spot to this day are very few, one in a million!

Because in 2018, btc fell from 19.8k to 3100 dollars
In 2021, btc peaked at 69.8k and fell back to 15.2k by the end of 2022 💲
Retail investors who can avoid being washed out really are rare!
Unless there is a mine at home!

The intensity of wash trading in this circle can truly be described as thorough and clean!
Those without faith may have their bones chewed up completely!
Especially users holding large amounts of altcoins! After a few years, they have watched their altcoins plummet by dozens of times and get delisted!
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The east is going to crack down on virtual currency speculation again The main goal is still to prevent capital outflow It seems that both withdrawals and deposits will be managed even more strictly Although it has been cracked down on for many years, it still has effects Everyone remembers that Huobi was expelled in 2021 and has now become a third-tier exchange, also driven away by the red-headed document of 2021! At one time, Huobi's trading volume was comparable to that of a certain An!
The east is going to crack down on virtual currency speculation again

The main goal is still to prevent capital outflow

It seems that both withdrawals and deposits will be managed even more strictly

Although it has been cracked down on for many years, it still has effects

Everyone remembers that Huobi was expelled in 2021 and has now become a third-tier exchange, also driven away by the red-headed document of 2021!
At one time, Huobi's trading volume was comparable to that of a certain An!
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US stock tokens will land on mainstream global exchanges in 2026 This means that the days of altcoins will be even harder in the future US stock tokens correspond to high-value companies in the US stock market like Nvidia, Microsoft Tesla, Apple, Google, Oracle, and so on Instead of buying altcoins and being trapped for ten thousand years It's better to recharge funds and buy US stock tokens! Altcoins are just a string of seemingly worthless code composed and then a few people shout to pump and dump! At least US stock tokens have company performance supporting their stock prices!
US stock tokens will land on mainstream global exchanges in 2026

This means that the days of altcoins will be even harder in the future

US stock tokens correspond to high-value companies in the US stock market like Nvidia, Microsoft

Tesla, Apple, Google, Oracle, and so on

Instead of buying altcoins and being trapped for ten thousand years

It's better to recharge funds and buy US stock tokens!

Altcoins are just a string of seemingly worthless code composed and then a few people shout to pump and dump!

At least US stock tokens have company performance supporting their stock prices!
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Why did the U.S. stock market surge, gold soar, and silver rise? BTC did not explode, only bouncing back from 80,000 to around 90,000. According to BTC's cycle, it indicates that BTC will enter a long 18-month rise from March 2024 to November 2025. From 30,000 BTC rising to 126,000 is about more than 4 times. The funds driving BTC's rise are currently exhausted. BTC's dilemma is that the volatility is too high and the risks are too great, causing fear among the capital market and retail investors; this asset can drop by 30-40 points in a month. Meanwhile, the U.S. stock market, gold, silver, and even A-shares have only adjusted less than 10 points in the short term. The global financial circles aim for stability, rather than facing the high volatility of financial derivatives like BTC every day. From the data, each time BTC's washout cycle lasts at least 2-3 months in the short term, and 6-12 months in the long term to be thoroughly washed out!
Why did the U.S. stock market surge, gold soar, and silver rise?

BTC did not explode, only bouncing back from 80,000 to around 90,000.

According to BTC's cycle, it indicates that BTC will enter a long 18-month rise from March 2024 to November 2025.

From 30,000 BTC rising to 126,000 is about more than 4 times.

The funds driving BTC's rise are currently exhausted.

BTC's dilemma is that the volatility is too high and the risks are too great, causing fear among the capital market and retail investors; this asset can drop by 30-40 points in a month.

Meanwhile, the U.S. stock market, gold, silver, and even A-shares have only adjusted less than 10 points in the short term.

The global financial circles aim for stability, rather than facing the high volatility of financial derivatives like BTC every day.

From the data, each time BTC's washout cycle lasts at least 2-3 months in the short term, and 6-12 months in the long term to be thoroughly washed out!
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Current Top Altcoin Rankings in the Crypto World First Place 🥇 zec Strong Whale Coin When BTC was around 116000 a month ago, it was still in this range Second Place 🥈 bch Wall Whale Coin When BTC was around 115000 a month ago, it was still near 550 Currently still hovering around 550 The rest are zen dash and other altcoin varieties If there are any coins that have reversed the market and surged during consolidation, feel free to recommend them.
Current Top Altcoin Rankings in the Crypto World

First Place 🥇 zec Strong Whale Coin

When BTC was around 116000 a month ago, it was still in this range

Second Place 🥈 bch Wall Whale Coin

When BTC was around 115000 a month ago, it was still near 550
Currently still hovering around 550

The rest are zen dash and other altcoin varieties

If there are any coins that have reversed the market and surged during consolidation, feel free to recommend them.
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Big shot 95,000 heavy position BTC liquidation location 75,000 Do you think he will be liquidated?
Big shot 95,000 heavy position BTC liquidation location 75,000

Do you think he will be liquidated?
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Reminder⏰ The Federal Reserve is highly unlikely to cut interest rates in December and January 2026. In the crypto circle, from May to October 2025, there will be speculation about interest rate cuts driving up BTC. Currently, if there is no speculation about interest rate cuts, the price will continue to fluctuate down to between 7-7.45w. It may even drop lower to 6.85w. For BTC to fully rebound, it will at least be necessary to enter the market in mid to late January. This is because the probability of BTC completely bottoming out at that time is over 85%. From April to October, there will again be speculation about interest rate expectations for 2026. In the crypto circle, price surges are driven by speculative expectations. Everyone remember to encourage each other!
Reminder⏰

The Federal Reserve is highly unlikely to cut interest rates in December and January 2026.

In the crypto circle, from May to October 2025, there will be speculation about interest rate cuts driving up BTC.

Currently, if there is no speculation about interest rate cuts, the price will continue to fluctuate down to between 7-7.45w.
It may even drop lower to 6.85w.

For BTC to fully rebound, it will at least be necessary to enter the market in mid to late January.

This is because the probability of BTC completely bottoming out at that time is over 85%.

From April to October, there will again be speculation about interest rate expectations for 2026.

In the crypto circle, price surges are driven by speculative expectations. Everyone remember to encourage each other!
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