Originally expected to start escaping the peak on October 16
Man's calculations are no match for the heavens
As a result, the market manipulators smashed the market a few days earlier
In fact, whenever BTC rises for 7 consecutive days and BNB surges, one should run
However, the vision of a big rise in October has indeed deceived too many people
It's impossible to escape every time
Position management is indeed very important‼️
If most people choose to hold half their positions during this big drop
Losses can also be reduced by half!
Everyone is betting on the altcoin season, but unfortunately, the market manipulators chose a different track
Binance life and other coins replaced the altcoin season
The trade war is the biggest uncertainty, and no one is willing to pay for uncertainties. So resting♨️ is the best! It's best to wait for the trade war to be resolved before looking for entry opportunities.
Since May, BTC has stabilized at 100,000 and has been continuously washed and promoted for 6 months, with historical highs being broken time and again, it should take a break. The U.S. stock market has only dropped 4 points from its peak while BTC has dropped 20 points!
If the Nasdaq drops to around 18,500, will BTC go to around 80,000! After all, some companies in the U.S. stock market have suddenly surged 30-50 points since September on certain days. After a surge often comes a crash.
For those at the top, they don't care how much it drops because they have already escaped the market in advance. What they care about is national interest, above everything else, the common people are just ants, as long as they don't cause trouble. As long as they can have enough to eat.
There is a reason why it is cold at high altitudes. Since April, the Nasdaq has accumulated a rise of 60 points, and stocks like Tesla, Nvidia, and Intel have directly doubled. After all, the focus of Americans is the U.S. stock market, and for Wall Street, an annual return rate above 30% is already considered super good. Historically, institutions behind Wall Street are grateful if they can maintain a return rate above 9% for a year, let alone this year's significant rise.
Moreover, BTC rebounded 69 points from its lowest point in April, and ETH directly tripled.
The US stock market is unlikely to continue rising significantly
Including gold and silver
It would be good if the market can remain stable without a big drop!
BTC will continue to fluctuate between 8.45-9.45w
Currently, BTC cannot break through 9w and still faces the risk of continuing to test around 8.6!
The rise in the US stock market has not driven a big rise in the crypto market, which only indicates that smart money is particularly cautious in viewing the market! At least they are not daring to go all in! They can only test the waters cautiously!
Currently, everyone is waiting for BTC to drop back to the low point of 75,000 from April, or even lower, to enter the market. The situation at that time was caused by the trade war, and the current situation is nothing more than speculation on Japan's interest rate hike to shake out positions!
After the speculation ends, there will still be a rebound!
If BTC drops back to around 75,000, it's very likely that the big players won't give most people this opportunity!
The U.S. stock market is frighteningly strong, and so is gold!
BTC is getting closer to the bottom area according to the current trend.
Currently, I feel that at least half of the position should be bought between 70,000 and 75,000.
Even a six-layer position.
The extreme pullback of BTC might just touch around 68,500 to 69,000.
Currently, why is the Nasdaq in the US stock market still at a high level, while BTC has dropped more than 30 points?
The funds globally that are optimistic about the crypto market are still in a state of panic and hesitation; they are afraid that if the US stock market crashes, BTC will drop even more! In fact, BTC has already dropped in advance!
It hasn’t reached a relatively satisfactory price, and institutions also do not want to step in!
Financial Market: 80% of the time in fluctuation Only a 10% chance of a large rise Only a 10% chance of a large drop The cryptocurrency market is no different
The survival rate of altcoins ranked beyond 100 is less than 20%
Since 2017, most altcoins have a survival rate of less than 20%
The survival rate of the top 50 altcoins is only 50% The survival rate of the top 20 altcoins is only 60% For example, fil dot was once ranked in the top 10
The popular altcoins from 2017 to 2020 include sbtc true and Gongxinbao
Rcn Gtc Huizhou Thunderstorm is the micro-business of that time HC Deep Brain Chain ink Dpy Yee By the way, there are also btm bts eos, these coins have almost gone to zero
The coins that survived are only doge bch xrp ltc Currently, it seems that only doge and xrp have outperformed in several rounds of bull and bear markets. Four years ago, doge was 2 cents each before Musk's promotion, and it surged to over 4 yuan each. If doge falls back to the range of 2 to 5 dimes each, there might be substantial buying funds for bottom hunting
If there are still people who bought the above coins from 2017 to now, it shows that they are old hands, having experienced at least three rounds of bull and bear markets!
To be honest, the old hands from 2017 to now who can remain steady without doing any crazy operations and only hold btc and eth, holding them for so many years and firmly maintaining the spot to this day are very few, one in a million!
Because in 2018, btc fell from 19.8k to 3100 dollars In 2021, btc peaked at 69.8k and fell back to 15.2k by the end of 2022 💲 Retail investors who can avoid being washed out really are rare! Unless there is a mine at home!
The intensity of wash trading in this circle can truly be described as thorough and clean! Those without faith may have their bones chewed up completely! Especially users holding large amounts of altcoins! After a few years, they have watched their altcoins plummet by dozens of times and get delisted!
The east is going to crack down on virtual currency speculation again
The main goal is still to prevent capital outflow
It seems that both withdrawals and deposits will be managed even more strictly
Although it has been cracked down on for many years, it still has effects
Everyone remembers that Huobi was expelled in 2021 and has now become a third-tier exchange, also driven away by the red-headed document of 2021! At one time, Huobi's trading volume was comparable to that of a certain An!
Why did the U.S. stock market surge, gold soar, and silver rise?
BTC did not explode, only bouncing back from 80,000 to around 90,000.
According to BTC's cycle, it indicates that BTC will enter a long 18-month rise from March 2024 to November 2025.
From 30,000 BTC rising to 126,000 is about more than 4 times.
The funds driving BTC's rise are currently exhausted.
BTC's dilemma is that the volatility is too high and the risks are too great, causing fear among the capital market and retail investors; this asset can drop by 30-40 points in a month.
Meanwhile, the U.S. stock market, gold, silver, and even A-shares have only adjusted less than 10 points in the short term.
The global financial circles aim for stability, rather than facing the high volatility of financial derivatives like BTC every day.
From the data, each time BTC's washout cycle lasts at least 2-3 months in the short term, and 6-12 months in the long term to be thoroughly washed out!
The Federal Reserve is highly unlikely to cut interest rates in December and January 2026.
In the crypto circle, from May to October 2025, there will be speculation about interest rate cuts driving up BTC.
Currently, if there is no speculation about interest rate cuts, the price will continue to fluctuate down to between 7-7.45w. It may even drop lower to 6.85w.
For BTC to fully rebound, it will at least be necessary to enter the market in mid to late January.
This is because the probability of BTC completely bottoming out at that time is over 85%.
From April to October, there will again be speculation about interest rate expectations for 2026.
In the crypto circle, price surges are driven by speculative expectations. Everyone remember to encourage each other!