悠宝说币

摩尔线程正式发布新架构“花港”，
12月20日，摩尔推出了全新GPU架构，号称算力提升50%，能效提升10倍，最重要的卖点就是可以支持10万卡以上的大规模算力集群!总体看下来这个发布会中规中矩，没什么超预期的地方。摩尔与英伟达之间还有一道巨大的鸿沟，差距不是一点半点。好在摩尔选择了一条比较务实的道路，单卡性能不行，就采用架构优化与堆叠办法，支持超大规模集群，这也符合目前国产算力数据中心的建设要求，以后可以获得相关订单，对业绩是有帮助的。
老实说，目前摩尔的股价还是虚高。更重要的是远离周末因为摩尔发布新架构而鼓吹算力利好的人，完全是在添乱。摩尔发布新架构已经宣传一周了，而且也没什么大的突破，没有超预期的技术很难在下周让市场买单，所以还是要保持谨慎。

商业航天的核心技术是什么，从星链一窥两大核心技术：星间激光链路和先进终端（相控阵天线）。两者都是为了解决通信这个问题。
“激光链路”解决星间通信，“先进终端”是解决卫星和地面通信，不然卫星就是一个孤岛没有任何意义。
星间激光链路：
①航天电子（终端及系统龙头，速率10Gbps，年产能500套）
②久之洋（星载EDFA与捕跟相机核心供应商，已配套中国星网，宇航级认证）
③中国卫星（系统总成龙头，参与GW星座，具备激光终端+星载计算机+数据分发全链条能力）
先进终端技术：（TR 芯片/组件是相控阵天线的射频引擎）
①臻镭科技：给星载GaAs/GaN T/R组件提供的是射频电源管理芯片和射频收发/ADC/DAC芯片，不是单片T/R。
②铖昌科技：国内稀缺的“相控阵T/R芯片”完整方案供应商。
铖昌≈“纵向做深”——高性能TR芯片龙头。
臻镭≈“横向做全”——TR+ADC/DAC+电源+微系统整体交付。
③通宇通讯（MacroWiFi天线模组供应SpaceX），能做相控阵天线，但做的是天线系统/整机+T/R组件，并不做最核心、最难替代的TR芯片。
注：逻辑不代表市场选择，不代表最终高度，受市值、人气多因素影响。比如西部和再升虽不是技术路线的核心但也有自己的稀缺性。

政策预期、产业趋势、资金流向三大主线展开，成长与价值方向兼具布局窗口。
一、 政策驱动型板块：确定性红利优先抓
1. 可控核聚变+商业航天：安徽“十五五”规划明确加码核聚变能发展，叠加特朗普媒体科技集团与TAE科技合并的全球资本催化，板块热度有望延续；商业航天进入可回收火箭密集首飞周期，概念股活跃度将维持高位。
2. 消费“三新”试点链：商务部推进消费新业态试点落地，区域零售、文旅、电商板块直接受益，政策暖风下相关个股估值修复可期。
二、 产业趋势主线：高景气方向强者恒强
1. AI产业链：机构共识明确，行情正从算力硬件向应用端扩散，光模块、服务器等上游硬件业绩确定性突出，AI Agent、具身智能等下游应用具备爆发潜力。
2. 高端装备与机械制造：板块近期低位启动，与商业航天、机器人等明年核心产业方向强关联，具备估值与成长双重优势。
3. 有色金属：短期资金流出带来调整，但供应端紧张格局未改，叠加海外流动性宽松预期升温，基本面支撑下板块具备反弹基础。
三、 防御价值配置：红利资产托底银行、保险等红利板块，在市场风险偏好偏低阶段，低估值、高股息的特性凸显配置价值，可作为组合防守端的核心选择。
四、 关键事件预警：影响下周市场节奏
1. 国内宏观数据窗口期：11月经济、金融数据将密集披露，数据强弱将直接影响市场对基本面的预期走向。
2. 海外流动性扰动：美联储降息预期升温，但最终路径仍需经济数据验证，将持续扰动全球资本及A股风险偏好。

On Saturday, let's discuss the sector. The controlled nuclear fusion left an upward gap on Friday. How should we operate?
Controlled nuclear fusion is one of the popular tracks. After a brief pause on Thursday, it jumped high again on Friday, soaring nearly 3%. So what about next week? This upward gap is generally a sign of strong rebound, but currently, it is already at a short-term high, and the support strength of this gap will not be strong. It is possible that it will be filled at the beginning of next week, and then it will be more reliable to enter. As the saying goes, "one strong, two relay, three decline, four exhaustion."
Why is the support strength of this gap not significant? Because there have already been two upward gaps before, which are the gaps left by the upward openings on December 8 and December 11. These two gaps belong to the bottom rising gaps, so the support strength is relatively strong.
As for whether the gap on Friday will be quickly filled, it depends on how the main force operates. I believe that filling it would be healthier.

下周这几个热点会持续
一、商业航天：原因是元旦后到春节前，还有大量的卫星发射安排，加上马斯克的SP太空公司上市消息时不时刺激一下。跨年妖股会在其中。
二、可控核聚变：本来这个板块有点审美疲劳了，没想到特不靠谱旗下的公司收购一家可控核聚变公司，这样想象空间就出来了。
三、消费板块：商业百货预计高潮，接下来会是其它消费。
至于科技股，偶尔会冲一下救大盘，但持续性不够，建议观望。
总体最后几天的年味行情，大盘大涨大跌都难，估计还是震荡横盘。

电商商家的重磅利好来了！
12月20号，三部门联合发布《互联网平台价格行为规则》，要求维护各平台内商家的自主定价权，比如不得强制降低价格、最低价、开启自动跟价等。对消费者同样是利好，规定保障消费者权益和价格知情权，不得利用算法进行“大数据杀熟”!可以预料到，这个《行为规则》发布后，各家平台会被戴上紧箍咒，互相之间的内卷行为会减少。如果真的可以完全按规则行事，对平台经济长期来说可以得到健康规范的发展，从以前的价格竞争转换为质量服务的竞争!
不过，后续还是要看监管强度与实际执行效果。之前就明令禁止过“仅退款”等平台乱象，现如今还是有个别平台会出现这种现象，可见这只是个开始，要促进平台之间的有序竞争，还需要很长的路。

Major positive news! Last night, U.S. stocks surged, especially the big tech sector, can A-shares continue to rise next Monday?
Last night, U.S. stocks continued to warm up, with all three major indices in the green, especially big tech, represented by storage, which performed very well. Micron Technology surged nearly 7 points, SanDisk rose over 8 points, Nvidia also increased nearly 4 points, and AMD surged over 6 points. Other companies like Google also saw gains.
The significant rise in U.S. stocks, especially the major recovery in technology, undoubtedly creates a very favorable backdrop for the opening of A-shares next Monday.
As long as there are no unexpected developments this weekend, and if the bulls provide some strength, then a big surge in A-shares' big tech next Monday is not impossible.
Especially in the storage sector, Friday's downturn was disheartening for many.
Now that U.S. stocks in the storage sector continue to show a strong upward trend, the bulls in A-shares' storage should have confidence, right? They won't crash the market again, will they?

四大商业航天集团：实力对比！
看好千帆星座！
商业航天，未来前景广阔！

Three major policies benefit suddenly! The A-shares face a life-and-death battle at 3910 points next week, with hundreds of billions of funds already laid out in advance?
On Friday evening, the market welcomed three major heavyweight policy signals in succession, precisely targeting three tracks: financial technology, gaming, and cutting-edge technology. Combined with the warming trend of three consecutive days this week, the bull-bear game at the key level of 3910 points in A-shares will enter a white-hot stage next week.
1. Three major policy benefits surprise, these sectors will directly benefit
1. Countdown to Hong Kong's stablecoin license issuance: According to the statement by the Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury, Christopher Hui, the first batch of stablecoin licenses will be issued in early 2026. As of the end of September 2025, 36 applications have been received, with approvals focusing on reserve management, price stability mechanisms, and anti-money laundering measures. This policy directly benefits the stablecoin, financial technology, and cross-border payment sectors, and is expected to attract global capital to accelerate layout in related fields.
2. Shanghai invests 50 million to support the gaming industry: The first released "Shanghai Ten Measures for Games" clearly arranges 50 million yuan in support funds every year, focusing on six major directions including game development, going overseas, AI integration, and eSports events, and will also introduce top events such as the 2026 DOTA2 International Invitational. Data shows that Shanghai's online game sales revenue reached 155.8 billion yuan in 2024, with Xuhui District accounting for nearly half, and the policy will further strengthen the advantages of industrial agglomeration.
3. State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission identifies five cutting-edge tracks: Layout for the second batch of central enterprise original technology sources in fields such as quantum technology and embodied intelligence has formed 97 technology sources. For example, in quantum technology, 16 key cities have built quantum metropolitan networks, with the number of quantum messaging users exceeding 5.3 million, and the pace of commercial application of technology continues to accelerate.
2. The market's three consecutive rises hide mysteries, and 3910 points become a battleground
This week, A-shares showed a trend of first suppressing and then rising, with three consecutive days of gains in the latter half of the week. On Friday, more than 4,000 stocks rose, and over 80 stocks reached the daily limit, with the market sentiment significantly warming. As of the close on December 19, the Shanghai Composite Index reported 3890.45 points, with trading volume increasing to 1.73 trillion yuan, and main funds achieving a net inflow of 1.4 billion yuan. However, after rising to 3902.67 points in the afternoon, it fell back, confirming significant pressure near 3910 points.
3. Next week's trend determination: The life-and-death battle at 3910 points is about to start
Next week's market can be summarized as a "major bull-bear showdown," with the core focus centered on the breakthrough of the key level of 3910 points:
Bull victory: If it can break through 3910 points in volume (corresponding to the 60-day moving average), the rebound will continue, with the next target pointing directly to 3936 points high;
Bear victory: If the breakthrough fails, the index may enter an adjustment phase, with 3870 points becoming the last defensive bottom line for the bulls.
The current market has stabilized above the 20-day moving average, with policy benefits and capital warming resonating, but concerns remain about rapid rotation and insufficient volume. Next week's operations need to closely monitor key points and sector rotation rhythm to avoid blindly chasing high prices.

In the face of the sharp rise in lithium carbonate prices, the Guangqi Exchange has taken action!
On December 19, the Guangqi Exchange announced that in response to risks and to strengthen management, it will adjust the trading limits for lithium carbonate futures contracts starting next Tuesday. The opening positions for ordinary speculative clients and non-futures company members will be restricted! There is no doubt that this is a measure taken to cool down the lithium carbonate futures market, curb speculative behavior, and bring prices back to rationality. Last time, at the end of July, measures were also taken due to a sharp price increase, and the next day, it hit the limit down, so this is a short-term negative!
However, in the long run, a return to rationality in the market is beneficial, as it helps the healthy development of the entire industry chain and breaks the vicious cycle of wild fluctuations, so strengthening regulation is indeed very necessary!

How to view the Sci-Tech Innovation 50?
Yesterday, we discussed the pullback issues of the ChiNext Index and the Shenzhen Component Index. In fact, there is another very similar index, which is the Sci-Tech Innovation 50.
The similarity is reflected in two aspects. One is the synchronization of the adjustment cycle; the other is the similarity in shape and structure, both are wedge-shaped. The difference lies in the slope of the decline. Compared to the previous two, the downward slope of the Sci-Tech Innovation 50 appears steeper and more decisive, while the rebound strength and extent during the process are relatively small. This is quite understandable, as its previous rally phase was also the steepest and most intense, as the saying goes, rises and falls come from the same source.
From 1588 down, what stage are we currently in? It can be considered that we have entered the later stage, meaning there is still a tail that has not emerged. However, to complete the end of this wedge, it is likely to extend to January next year.
Theoretically, breaking 1273 (green line) will allow us to start paying attention. However, regarding the final endpoint, one should be mentally prepared for a break below 1200 (blue line), which is likely the extreme position.
So currently, there is no need to rush to enter the market; it might be better to observe first and stock up on some resources. The troops haven't moved yet, but the supplies are prepared; you understand!

Will the market have a big surge next Monday, breaking through 3900 points? I will say the conclusion directly: the market next Monday will be quite explosive, so be mentally prepared for the opening.
Yesterday it opened low and rose high, today it opened high and fluctuated upward, with the index sectors and stocks collectively rising, but there was significant selling pressure at the end, and the gains clearly narrowed. It is evident that today's high opening and rising trend during the day is definitely not simple. Why do I say this? Because the main force has already given a clear signal during the day. Today, the market changed dramatically, with mysterious funds unusually lifting the market due to a collective rise in themes, and the market's bullish sentiment quickly rebounding. Is this preparing for a strong attack to break through 3900 points, or is it brewing a conspiracy to harvest? Well, no need to guess now; I will directly give you the script for A-shares next Monday, and not a word will be wrong. If you don't want to miss the best opportunity coming up, you must pay close attention to this content until the end. Because in today's content, I will not only tell you how the market will move next, but also inform you of the direction where the main force is truly frantically grabbing shares and about to take off. And everyone must not think that I am sensationalizing.
Old friends know that here with the captain, there are always forward-looking views, never hindsight. Just when the index peaked and fell back on Monday, the whole internet was boasting that Tuesday would welcome a rebound, but only the captain firmly told everyone that Tuesday would continue to fall and look for support downwards. Friends who watched my content have successfully avoided that big pit. Then after the market closed on Tuesday, when the whole internet lost confidence in the market, amidst a chorus of bearish voices, only I stood up confidently and said that Wednesday would stop falling and stabilize, and it would start a continuous rebound. Sure enough, the market rose for three consecutive days, performing a reversal bullish line, once again bringing steady happiness to all my friends who trust me. But I am puzzled: the valuable content analyzed over a long time is not being viewed, while others casually posting singing and dancing content attract a lot of attention. So, if you think the captain's content is helpful to you, please give a little red heart and a small assistant, which will also help you find such forward-looking analysis in the future. I believe that friends who understand the importance of respecting the contributions of others will surely be blessed and prosperous in the future.
Next, without further ado, I will directly state the conclusion.
First, we need to clarify one thing: the current market has already broken through the pressure levels of the 10-day and 5-day moving averages, with only the 60-day and 30-day moving averages remaining above. But at the same time, all moving averages are starting to show a convergence trend, which means this is a typical upward trend. Even if there is a pullback later, it will only be a technical retracement.
Second, why did I say yesterday that as long as today's small interest rate hike and stock index settlement day negative factors are out of the way, the incremental funds in the market will come rushing in? This is because the trading volume is continuously expanding, and this kind of volume-price rising trend is the most perfect.
In summary, next week's market is worry-free, and it is not ruled out that it might once again challenge 4000 points, as next week is a key node for the year-end market.

Macro Section: This indicator has been performing well for 4 consecutive months! Global Manufacturing PMI data.
In November, JPMorgan's global manufacturing PMI was 50.5, the global manufacturing PMI in October was 50.8, in September it was 50.7, and in August it was 50.9.
The PMI data has remained above the breakeven line for 4 consecutive months, and is expected to form a new trend, which is a much-needed relief for the global macro economy that has been in recession and deflation for 2 years. From February to June 2024, the global manufacturing PMI also consistently stayed above the 50 breakeven line, with crude oil pushing up to $90 in 2-3 months, and significant increases in London copper and aluminum as well.
Conclusion: If the global manufacturing PMI continues to recover, attention should be paid to macro-level economic recovery trades, and large cyclical positions should be maintained. The current popular narrative of dollar credit collapse (copper, aluminum, oil replacing gold) may potentially replace the current AI technology revolution narrative (chip stocks).

Double bottom pattern, starting a one-sided rise!
When emotions repeatedly hit a low point, it is the period when the bottom is formed. Look at the current market pattern; the W bottom has already formed. Next, there is only one way left: upward. Pessimistically speaking, at least there is no possibility of a big drop!
Today's negative news has landed, and the small market is still rising. One can only say that this departure is in line with expectations, having been digested before today. Now, excluding the influence of various news at home and abroad over the weekend, the Shanghai Composite Index has already entered an upward channel. Those who cut losses a few days ago will probably have to chase high again. It must be said that the low-level consolidation and washing by the main force a few days ago has achieved its goal, achieving the effect they wanted. So today, there is a general rise + a big increase; although the index hasn't risen much, individual stocks will no longer give retail investors who have been forced out the opportunity to enter at low levels. Next week will be the same; no matter how much it rises, at least it won't fall, just not giving those who cut losses the chance to enter at low levels. If you want to come in, please chase high!

2025.12.19 Evening Announcement of Major Events by Listed Companies【II】：
I. Major Events Announcement：
1. 2 consecutive boards of Huati Technology: The company is not involved in commercial aerospace-related businesses.
2. Bohai Chemical: Termination of planning for major asset restructuring, stock resumption.
3. Guodun Quantum: Plans to sign a procurement service contract with Ququan Technology, expected amount 8.7 million yuan.
4. Chengdu Pioneer: Participated in establishing the Rongchuang Pioneer Fund with an investment of 40 million yuan to increase capital in Mosheng Intelligent, acquiring 51% equity.
II. Major Positive Announcements：
1. China Construction: The total amount of new contracts signed in the first 11 months increased by 0.9% year-on-year.
III. Major Negative Announcements：
1. Allianz Ruishi: Chairman Xu Jin plans to reduce holdings by no more than 0.96% of shares.
2. Boshou Technology: Director Yang Chuanqi and executive Zhou Dan plan to collectively reduce holdings by no more than 0.011% of shares.
3. Yongding Co., Ltd.: The controlling shareholder reduced holdings of 1.297% of the company's shares from October 21 to December 11, and terminated the reduction plan in advance.

A-shares: High-priced stocks plummet in the last trading session, negative news arrives after hours. The market rose significantly today, can it continue to rise next week?
The market opened high and rose steadily today, breaking through the ten-day and twenty-day moving averages, with 4300 stocks rising. Overall, the trend is still good, and importantly, there was significant volume today, which is a positive signal. As the saying goes, as long as there is volume, the market issues are not significant.
However, in the last trading session, some not-so-good phenomena appeared, with many high-priced varieties experiencing a sharp drop during the collective bidding, which calls for caution.
In terms of news, stocks with larger fluctuations such as *ST Yazhen, Hefeng China, and Tianpu Co., Ltd. are under close monitoring. It's no wonder that many high-priced stocks plummeted at the end of the session; large funds must have sensed something, leading to collective escape behavior.
It’s also not surprising that many high-priced stocks could not hold up this week, with companies issuing announcements to warn of risks in advance; in such cases, the risks have actually been present for a while. Regardless, based on past experiences, once the emotional tide recedes for hotly speculated stocks, the risks are relatively high.
On the first day of the Hainan Free Trade Port's closure, "first-line" imports enjoyed zero tariffs worth 360 million yuan. This mainly involves crude oil, aviation equipment, medical devices, etc.; for stocks related to Hainan Free Trade Port, there has been speculation for a long time, and investors need to manage risks well next week to prevent collective cashing in on good news. In fact, many stocks also showed signs of cashing out in the last session.
As for the market trend next week, Songyu believes that if there are no significant negative news over the weekend, there is still an expectation for an upward rebound. At least, the 60-day moving average will attempt to break through; if the stocks held recently are relatively stagnant, they can continue to be held. High-priced varieties plummeting at the end of the session have seen many low-priced varieties showing significant fund inflows. Since there are signs of a shift in styles, we need to remain patient.

It is not unusual or surprising that Japanese men have relationships with hundreds of women and secretly film them, as they can profit by uploading the videos online. They filmed over 860 videos and made a profit of 50 million yen.
However, it was unexpected that the man conspired with his 28-year-old wife and 23-year-old adopted daughter to carry this out. Moreover, this wife is quite generous, allowing her husband to have relations with hundreds of women without being jealous and even helping to secretly film. The adopted daughter is already 23 years old; why still adopt? It's quite funny, truly, there is no end to the wonders of the world.

After the market plunged at the close, the Cyberspace Administration and the China Securities Regulatory Commission issued a strong statement! On December 19, just before the market closed, multiple high-priced stocks plummeted. In the after-hours, a large number of online accounts were investigated. The Cyberspace Administration stated that it would strengthen regulation and severely crack down on false statements to prevent market disruption. In simple terms, it means banning some typical cases and starting to take action against self-media that indiscriminately spread rumors and small articles. This will also serve as a warning to other accounts, prompting them to be more cautious and prudent in the future, which will greatly benefit market stability. Of course, the most important thing is still not to believe or spread rumors. Relying solely on strengthened regulation is not enough; retail investors improving their judgment and maintaining a calm attitude are key to coping with information changes.

December 9th next week expectations
Yonghui Supermarket: Trend unchanged, grasp the intraday price difference
Pingtan Development: Flash crash at the end, mainly retreating
Aerospace Development: High-level consolidation, suggest observing mainly
Aerospace Electronics: Speculative funds lock positions, continue to rise
Aerospace Machinery: Weak rise, secure profits
Aerospace Power: Return to 5 lines, reduce positions for speculation
Zaiseng Technology: Continuous push up, pulling while withdrawing
Snowman Group: Limit up differentiation, second wave speculation opportunities
HeFu China: Volatility risk, avoid blindly chasing highs
Jiumuwang: Breakthrough volatility, accelerate upward rhythm
Baida Group: High-level board break, mainly reduce positions
National Machinery Heavy Industry: Previous high broken board, be cautious
Shunhao Shares: Volume fluctuation, trend not bad, participate with caution
Meinian Health: False breakout, short-term needs defense
Wangzi New Materials: Capital focus, strong opening momentum
China Satellite: Stable trend, climbing along the track moving average
Shanzi Gaoke: Counterattack in a desperate situation, expected to continue the board
Zhongchao Holdings: False negative consolidation, hold positions and wait for rise
Luyan Pharmaceutical: Three consecutive letters, sit tight and support well
Zhejiang Shibao: Volume reduction four consecutive, keep it up
Shanghai Jiubai: Hold consecutive boards, decisively withdraw upon board break
Western Materials: Singing high and advancing, the strong remain strong
Dongbai Group: New high on the board, driven by consumption
Central Plaza: 2 boards divergence, high throw low absorption
Youhao Group: Steadily pushing up, may accelerate
Kid King: Volume increase, hold positions and wait for rise
Xujiahui: Steady rise, high throw low absorption
Sunshine Dairy: Accumulating momentum, low absorption possible
Boyun New Materials: Steady rise, platform waiting to break

The new energy is not being represented yet? Google and Nvidia join the US AI "Genesis Plan"!
The rapid development of AI in the US has exacerbated the electricity shortage in North America, and this so-called AI Genesis Plan concerns energy, which is an urgent matter for them!
Lithium carbonate also experienced a sharp rise this afternoon, and polysilicon has continuously reached new highs; the secondary market should have feedback now!