I. Cycle Structure: Strength and Weakness Layering in High-Position Volatility
1. Weekly Dimension: Overall maintaining a high-level narrow convergence oscillation pattern, with a clear interval box outline, and no clear directional breakout signal has appeared yet, with the bullish and bearish game at a stalemate stage. 2. Daily Dimension: The price operation range has contracted to between the lower and middle bands of the Bollinger Bands. As the market continues to test the upper edge of the range, the current price has gradually approached the middle band position, presenting an overall oscillating strong operation tone.
II. Indicator Signals: Short-Term Bullish Support and Long-Term Bearish Pressure Coexist
1. MACD Indicator Multi-Period Divergence - 4-Hour Level: At 04:00 on December 19, the MACD indicator completed the golden cross formation, with the red bar continuing to expand to 591.7, providing core support for price highs as short-term bullish momentum continues to strengthen. - Daily Level: Although the MACD indicator has not escaped the dead cross range, signs of weakening bearish strength have emerged, with the green bar length narrowing to -66.5, indicating that bearish selling pressure is diminishing, suggesting a potential rebound repair demand at the daily level. 2. Moving Average System: Short-Term Golden Cross vs Long-Term Suppression - 4-Hour Level: The EMA7 moving average successfully crossed above the EMA30 moving average, forming a short-term golden cross support structure, providing a technical basis for price upward movement. - Daily Level: The price remains below all moving averages, with the EMA120 moving average above constituting a strong resistance level. Bulls need to overcome this critical suppression point for an upward breakout.
III. Bollinger Bands and Momentum Indicators: Clear Pressure Support, Caution Needed for High-Position Bullish Pursuit
1. 4-Hour Bollinger Band Signal: The three bands show a synchronous upward pattern, with the price operation rhythm being strong, but facing multiple pressure level tests—candlesticks are currently impacting the MA180 pressure level, while the upper Bollinger band is simultaneously challenging the intersection suppression range of the MA120 and MA60 moving averages. For support, short-term attention can be paid to the resonance support zone between the middle band and MA15, while the lower Bollinger band constitutes the last line of defense for bulls. 2. Oscillation Indicator Warning: The KDJ and RSI indicators are both nearing the overbought zone, with bullish momentum release approaching a phase threshold. There is a technical pullback demand for prices in the short term, and caution is needed for bullish pursuit at high positions due to potential pullback risks.
Short-Term Operation Suggestions: Big Cake: Short around 88700-89300, Target: around 87000-86500 Second Cake: Short around 3000-3020, Target: around 2940-2920
Chen Dong's warehouse operation 8: 10,000 U - 350,000 U (data from January) The market is not just random fluctuations, but a rhythmic cycle. Don't just focus on short-term volatility; you need to see the long-term trend clearly. Investment is not about temporary luck, but about your own judgment and patience; stability is the key to winning.
The article clearly analyzes the macro reasons and various market sentiments. Good news being fully priced in means bad news is ahead, so wait for significant fluctuations. The short position suggested in the evening session has been initially validated, and now we are just waiting for the position to take profit.
December 19 Follow-up Analysis and Operation Ideas:
1. Macro Drivers and Bitcoin Market Trends
Today, the Bank of Japan announced an interest rate hike of 25 basis points, raising the rate to 0.75%, the highest level in nearly 30 years for the country. Due to this macroeconomic negative impact, Bitcoin dipped to around $84400 during the early hours, but the market quickly digested the short-term bearish sentiment, and the daytime price started a strong rebound, closing with a bullish engulfing candlestick pattern, indicating a high probability of reaching a new local high during the US trading session.
From the resistance distribution perspective, there is significant selling pressure in the $89500-$90500 range, which is the core pressure area for this round of rebound.
2. Bitcoin Daily Level
Previously, the daily chart recorded an upper shadow bearish candlestick. After the price received effective support in the lower range, it immediately started to rebound at the opening.
- The Bollinger Bands show a slight opening trend, and the short-term moving averages are turning upward, providing momentum for the rebound; - The MACD fast and slow lines crossed upwards but the volume bars are in a contraction state, the sustainability of the rebound remains to be observed; - The KDJ indicator is also turning upwards, and the VR indicator is horizontally consolidating around 80, with no significant increase in market activity yet.
Four-Hour Level:
After the rebound encountered resistance in the early hours, the price plunged briefly below the Bollinger lower band, followed by a three consecutive bullish candlestick rebound trend, currently the Bollinger Bands are flat.
- The short-term moving averages show signs of turning upwards, with bullish strength gradually warming up; - The MACD fast and slow lines are extending upwards, and the volume bars are also increasing, indicating a strengthening of the rebound; - The KDJ indicator is crossing upwards, caution is needed regarding the overbought resistance near the 100 value; - The VR indicator is consolidating around the 120 value, and market trading sentiment is relatively stable.
3. Market Structure Judgment and Operation Strategy
The current cryptocurrency market is overall in a wide-ranging volatile market, with significant characteristics of price fluctuations, and blindly chasing highs and cutting losses can easily lead to a passive position.
From an operational perspective, it is recommended to abandon the trend-following approach and rely on support and resistance zones for high-selling and low-buying. The short-term price is currently testing the upper resistance zone, a conservative strategy can wait for a confirmation pullback to establish long positions.
Short-term trading suggestions for the early hours: Big Coin: Short near $89000-$89500, target: around $87000-$86000 Second Coin: Short near $2990-$3010, target: around $2930-$2900
December 19 Follow-up Analysis and Operation Ideas:
1. Macro Drivers and Bitcoin Market Trends
Today, the Bank of Japan announced an interest rate hike of 25 basis points, raising the rate to 0.75%, the highest level in nearly 30 years for the country. Due to this macroeconomic negative impact, Bitcoin dipped to around $84400 during the early hours, but the market quickly digested the short-term bearish sentiment, and the daytime price started a strong rebound, closing with a bullish engulfing candlestick pattern, indicating a high probability of reaching a new local high during the US trading session.
From the resistance distribution perspective, there is significant selling pressure in the $89500-$90500 range, which is the core pressure area for this round of rebound.
2. Bitcoin Daily Level
Previously, the daily chart recorded an upper shadow bearish candlestick. After the price received effective support in the lower range, it immediately started to rebound at the opening.
- The Bollinger Bands show a slight opening trend, and the short-term moving averages are turning upward, providing momentum for the rebound; - The MACD fast and slow lines crossed upwards but the volume bars are in a contraction state, the sustainability of the rebound remains to be observed; - The KDJ indicator is also turning upwards, and the VR indicator is horizontally consolidating around 80, with no significant increase in market activity yet.
Four-Hour Level:
After the rebound encountered resistance in the early hours, the price plunged briefly below the Bollinger lower band, followed by a three consecutive bullish candlestick rebound trend, currently the Bollinger Bands are flat.
- The short-term moving averages show signs of turning upwards, with bullish strength gradually warming up; - The MACD fast and slow lines are extending upwards, and the volume bars are also increasing, indicating a strengthening of the rebound; - The KDJ indicator is crossing upwards, caution is needed regarding the overbought resistance near the 100 value; - The VR indicator is consolidating around the 120 value, and market trading sentiment is relatively stable.
3. Market Structure Judgment and Operation Strategy
The current cryptocurrency market is overall in a wide-ranging volatile market, with significant characteristics of price fluctuations, and blindly chasing highs and cutting losses can easily lead to a passive position.
From an operational perspective, it is recommended to abandon the trend-following approach and rely on support and resistance zones for high-selling and low-buying. The short-term price is currently testing the upper resistance zone, a conservative strategy can wait for a confirmation pullback to establish long positions.
Short-term trading suggestions for the early hours: Big Coin: Short near $89000-$89500, target: around $87000-$86000 Second Coin: Short near $2990-$3010, target: around $2930-$2900
Market Macro Assessment: The Bank of Japan's interest rate hike is finalized, and negative news has been fully released while we await the initiation of a new mainline
Dear colleagues, today the Bank of Japan announced an interest rate hike as expected. This operation, which aligns with market expectations, still poses a substantial negative impact on the cryptocurrency market against the backdrop of tightening global liquidity.
From the perspective of macro liquidity, this interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan is essentially a continuation of the tightening monetary policy cycle of major global economies. This move will further exacerbate the market liquidity siphoning effect. In the short term, the cryptocurrency market, as a representative of high-risk assets, is likely to bear the pressure brought by the diversion of funds.
Looking back at recent market dynamics, multiple negative factors have been densely released and are gradually being digested. From geopolitical disturbances at the macro level to the implementation of regulatory policies within the industry, market sentiment is already at a relatively low range. According to the financial market logic of “when negative news is fully released, it becomes positive,” the current market is at a critical turning point between the end of risk release and the brewing of new momentum.
As negative factors gradually clear, market valuations will return to rational ranges, and expectations for marginal improvement in funding will also gradually warm up. We judge that a new round of bullish trends in the cryptocurrency market has entered the countdown stage, and now is the strategic window period to accumulate at low levels and await a trend reversal.
Chen Dong's warehouse operation 8: 10,000 U - 350,000 U (data from January) The market is not just random fluctuations, but a rhythmic cycle. Don't just focus on short-term volatility; you need to see the long-term trend clearly. Investment is not about temporary luck, but about your own judgment and patience; stability is the key to winning.
November 26 Thanksgiving is approaching. Will the market repeat itself? Subsequent market analysis and operational suggestions
BTC Technical Analysis
- Daily Level: Recently, the price has closed in the red around $87,300, with concentrated selling pressure between $88,500 and $89,000. Multiple attempts to break through have failed; currently, it is in a consolidation range between $86,000 and $88,500, with key support at $86,000-$86,500.
- 4-Hour Level: The candlestick shows a long upper shadow, and the MACD indicator shows diminishing momentum above the zero line, with the distance between DIF and DEA narrowing, indicating weakening bullish strength; although the short-term moving average system has not broken down, profit-taking pressure and the divergence between bulls and bears have intensified. - Trend Outlook: A breakout with volume above the $88,500-$89,000 resistance may open up upward space to $91,500-$93,000; a drop below the $86,000 support may lead to a retest of the bottom around $84,000.
ETH Technical Multi-Dimensional Interpretation
- Daily Level: A doji bullish candlestick has formed, with $2,950 becoming a key short-term resistance, which has been tested multiple times without breaking; bullish momentum is insufficient; the support at $2,850 is relatively strong, and it is currently in a narrow consolidation pattern.
- 4-Hour Level: Significant divergence in bullish and bearish signals, with the MACD and KDJ indicators showing an upward trend. The MA5 and MA10 daily moving averages provide resonant support, showing weak rebound momentum in the short term; however, the BOLL indicator is moving downwards, and the MA30 daily moving average has not turned; it is still in an adjustment framework in the medium term. - Trend Outlook: A breakout above $2,950 with volume may lead to a target range of $3,030-$3,150; losing the $2,850 support may trigger a risk of a pullback to $2,750.
From the daily cycle perspective, the Bitcoin Alligator indicator has shown a clear upward turning momentum, and the bullish trend structure is in the early stages of construction; the Williams indicator continues to converge from the oversold area towards the 70 central range, effectively releasing the excessive selling pressure in the market, and the oversold pattern is gradually being repaired; the MACD indicator's bearish energy bars are showing a continuous shrinking trend, with the fast and slow lines approaching at a faster pace, and the probability of a golden cross formation is steadily increasing. At the same time, the Bitcoin Alligator's three tracks are gradually converging and tightening, and the short-term market's long-short game has entered a critical window. If the price can break through the upper resistance of the Alligator line with strong volume and stabilize, it will effectively open up upward space, and the subsequent trend of rising momentum is expected to continue further; on the contrary, if the upward movement fails to break through the resistance level, the price is likely to fall back to the Alligator's middle track area for energy accumulation, waiting for the next breakthrough opportunity.
Ethereum's daily Bollinger Bands maintain a downward divergent pattern, with no obvious turning signals yet, but the price has successfully broken above the MA7 short-term moving average resistance, currently operating in the resistance area where EMA10 and the middle track of the Bollinger Bands resonate, and the market is at a key node for directional choice; the MACD indicator is still operating below the 0 axis, with volume continuously shrinking. Although the fast and slow lines are showing an upward trend at a low position, an effective golden cross has not yet formed, and the bearish pattern has not been completely reversed; the KDJ and RSI indicators are maintaining a synchronous upward trend below the 50 axis, with short-term bullish momentum gradually accumulating. From the perspective of indicator resonance logic, the probability of Ethereum breaking through the middle track resistance of the Bollinger Bands is relatively high. If it can successfully break through and stabilize, it is expected to break the current weak pattern and initiate a phase of rebound market.
Big Pie: 87500-87000 nearby long, target: 89000-90000 nearby Second Pie: 2920-2900 nearby long, target: 2980-3000 nearby
The analysis provided in the evening session for $SOL is also perfectly executed, with the evening session SOL showing a considerable increase, directly rising by ten points. The target space provided is quite large, overall, today's SOL trend is indeed impressive.
Steady operations focus on the mainstream, making big gains from small investments in altcoins. Today's altcoin suggestion: $SOL
SOL has recently presented a typical oscillation and consolidation pattern, with prices continuing to hover around the 128 mark in a narrow range. The market sentiment is heavily cautious from both bulls and bears, lacking clear trend guidance, and overall has fallen into a "grinding" phase of speculation. The current price barely holds at the middle Bollinger Band (around 128.8), but the upper band at 133.5 forms strong resistance, and in the short term, it remains confined within the 124-133 range, with no effective breakout signal yet.
1. Core Bullish and Bearish Anchor Points
- Resistance Area: The key resistance focus is on the 133-134 range; this area is both the upper Bollinger Band resistance level and the upper boundary of the recent oscillation range, while also overlapping with the short-term dividing line of bullish and bearish sentiment. A breakout needs to be confirmed with increased volume; - Support Area: The lower support system is anchored in the 122-125.5 range, with 125.5 being the recent lower boundary of the consolidation, and 122 being a key psychological level and technical support resonance point in the short term. If broken, it will further test the integer level of 120 for support.
2. Trading Strategy Reference
- Bullish Layout: When the price pulls back to the 126 range and shows signs of stabilization, one may consider entering long positions; - Risk Control: Strict stop-loss set below 120 to avoid the risk of continued pullback after support break; - Target Planning: If breaking through the 133-135 resistance zone with increased volume, one may aim for an upward target extension of 136-142.
The market moves this quickly, I don't want to say much more, brothers. Today's Northbound profits are abundant. This market is worth staying up for, the take-profit target given is too small. Adjusted the take-profit point midway, exceeding the completely expected target.
November 24th market rebounds from overselling, followed by market analysis and operational suggestions
Bitcoin
- Daily level: Closed near 86800, with the body breaking through the key resistance at 86500 but with moderate strength, and the volume did not increase simultaneously, caution is needed for short-term pullback risks. Core resistance at 87500, support anchored at 84500; if it stabilizes above 87500 and the volume increases, look for 90000-92000; if it falls below 84500 and the volume shrinks, it is likely to drop to 82000-80000. - 4-hour level: Oscillating upward structure, steadily rising relying on short-term moving averages, with no obvious divergence signals. Resistance focuses on 87500 (previous oscillation upper edge + bullish-bearish watershed), after breaking through with volume, look for 89000-92500 (pay attention to 88500 in between); support at 85000-84000, with 84500 as the key pullback confirmation point, if it does not break and the volume shrinks, it's a healthy adjustment, effective breaking down will lead to 83000-82000.
Ethereum
- Daily level: Closed near the 2800 mark, with intensified range trading and balanced bullish-bearish momentum, no clear breakout signals formed. Resistance at 2820-2850 (previous platform upper edge + MA20/MA30 convergence), after a volume-based breakthrough, look for 2950; support at 2760 (oscillation lower edge + MA60 resonance), effective breaking down will lead to 2660 (previous low + Fibonacci 38.2% retracement). - 4-hour level: In resonance with BTC, constrained by the 7-day moving average, the upward pace is slow. Resistance at 2850-2880 (previous platform + emotional watershed), after breaking through the 7-day moving average with volume and stabilizing at 2880, look for 2980-3030; support at 2760-2680 (oscillation lower edge + short-term moving average + Fibonacci retracement), if it falls below and the volume shrinks, adjustments will be exacerbated.
Short-term operational suggestions:
Bitcoin: Buy near 85500-85000, target: around 87800-88800
Ethereum: Buy near 2790-2770, target: around 2950-2970
Steady operations focus on the mainstream, making big gains from small investments in altcoins. Today's altcoin suggestion: $SOL
SOL has recently presented a typical oscillation and consolidation pattern, with prices continuing to hover around the 128 mark in a narrow range. The market sentiment is heavily cautious from both bulls and bears, lacking clear trend guidance, and overall has fallen into a "grinding" phase of speculation. The current price barely holds at the middle Bollinger Band (around 128.8), but the upper band at 133.5 forms strong resistance, and in the short term, it remains confined within the 124-133 range, with no effective breakout signal yet.
1. Core Bullish and Bearish Anchor Points
- Resistance Area: The key resistance focus is on the 133-134 range; this area is both the upper Bollinger Band resistance level and the upper boundary of the recent oscillation range, while also overlapping with the short-term dividing line of bullish and bearish sentiment. A breakout needs to be confirmed with increased volume; - Support Area: The lower support system is anchored in the 122-125.5 range, with 125.5 being the recent lower boundary of the consolidation, and 122 being a key psychological level and technical support resonance point in the short term. If broken, it will further test the integer level of 120 for support.
2. Trading Strategy Reference
- Bullish Layout: When the price pulls back to the 126 range and shows signs of stabilization, one may consider entering long positions; - Risk Control: Strict stop-loss set below 120 to avoid the risk of continued pullback after support break; - Target Planning: If breaking through the 133-135 resistance zone with increased volume, one may aim for an upward target extension of 136-142.
November 24th market rebounds from overselling, followed by market analysis and operational suggestions
Bitcoin
- Daily level: Closed near 86800, with the body breaking through the key resistance at 86500 but with moderate strength, and the volume did not increase simultaneously, caution is needed for short-term pullback risks. Core resistance at 87500, support anchored at 84500; if it stabilizes above 87500 and the volume increases, look for 90000-92000; if it falls below 84500 and the volume shrinks, it is likely to drop to 82000-80000. - 4-hour level: Oscillating upward structure, steadily rising relying on short-term moving averages, with no obvious divergence signals. Resistance focuses on 87500 (previous oscillation upper edge + bullish-bearish watershed), after breaking through with volume, look for 89000-92500 (pay attention to 88500 in between); support at 85000-84000, with 84500 as the key pullback confirmation point, if it does not break and the volume shrinks, it's a healthy adjustment, effective breaking down will lead to 83000-82000.
Ethereum
- Daily level: Closed near the 2800 mark, with intensified range trading and balanced bullish-bearish momentum, no clear breakout signals formed. Resistance at 2820-2850 (previous platform upper edge + MA20/MA30 convergence), after a volume-based breakthrough, look for 2950; support at 2760 (oscillation lower edge + MA60 resonance), effective breaking down will lead to 2660 (previous low + Fibonacci 38.2% retracement). - 4-hour level: In resonance with BTC, constrained by the 7-day moving average, the upward pace is slow. Resistance at 2850-2880 (previous platform + emotional watershed), after breaking through the 7-day moving average with volume and stabilizing at 2880, look for 2980-3030; support at 2760-2680 (oscillation lower edge + short-term moving average + Fibonacci retracement), if it falls below and the volume shrinks, adjustments will be exacerbated.
Short-term operational suggestions:
Bitcoin: Buy near 85500-85000, target: around 87800-88800
Ethereum: Buy near 2790-2770, target: around 2950-2970
Bitcoin has experienced a continuous downward adjustment, and the weekend market has entered a consolidation and repair phase. After confirming support with a pullback during the day, a rebound has been triggered, and the current price is solidly operating above the $86,000 area. The daily chart shows a sustained sideways oscillation pattern, with a recent inclusion of a doji candlestick pattern. The struggle between bulls and bears has become stuck, and the trend direction remains unclear. Attention should be paid to whether the daily line can form a medium bullish or medium bearish candlestick to complete trend confirmation; from the perspective of volume performance, bullish volume is gradually shrinking, and the Bollinger Bands maintain a parallel running state, with significant characteristics of short-term range oscillation.
On the 4-hour level, after the previous one-sided downward market, a short-term bottom structure has been completed. The current price has successfully stabilized in the strong area above the middle track of the Bollinger Bands. After continuous accumulation of bullish momentum, a key resistance level has been broken, effectively breaking through the previous downward trend pressure and opening up space for short-term upward movement; at the same time, a small bearish candlestick with reduced volume has formed during the pullback, fully reflecting that the supporting force below is sufficient and the selling pressure is relatively limited, which is a positive confirmation of the effectiveness of the middle track support. On the indicator level, the KDJ indicator is currently in the overbought zone, and caution should be exercised against the risk of a high-level reversal, while the RSI three-line retains upward space, and the short-term bullish momentum has not yet been fully released.
Big Cake: Near 86000-85500 bullish, target around 87500-88500. Second Cake: Near 2760-2740 bullish, target: around 2820-2840.
The many armies will not be enslaved, sounding the horn of victory. Today's large space long position has completely exited, and the losses from the previous days have been compensated. You all know how the market should move; what about the dog dealer's sickle? Today's analysis shows two consecutive wins, and the defensive take profit has been provided. All I can say is just keep it up.
On November 21, the market overall fell nearly 10,000 points, followed by market analysis and operational suggestions.
Last night, the market experienced violent fluctuations, with Bitcoin plunging nearly 7,700 points before rebounding from the 86,000 mark to the 88,200 area (a rebound of 2,200 points); Ethereum fell nearly 260 points before recovering from 2,790 to the 2,900 range (a rebound of about 110 points). In the early morning session, the market weakened again, with Bitcoin dropping from 87,400 to 85,300 (a sharp drop of 2,100 points), and Ethereum retreating from 2,885 to 2,770 (a drop of 115 points). In the midday session, panic sentiment was released, triggering a waterfall decline, with Bitcoin plummeting from 85,500 to 81,200 (a total daily drop of over 4,300 points), and Ethereum falling from 2,810 to 2,640 (a drop of 170 points).
2. In-depth analysis of Bitcoin's technical aspects (from the perspective of wave theory)
1. Key levels and Fibonacci reference
- The core focus is on the 0.318 Fibonacci level at 83,611 points, which is a key reference for trend judgment. - Short-term key support: the 77,000 area (near the ultimate target level); immediate support: the 83,000 line; short-term rebound resistance: below 88,000.
2. Wave structure and stop-loss conditions
- Currently presenting a double zigzag adjustment wave pattern, with strong downward momentum; only after breaking the 94,479 pressure level will there be a clear stop-loss signal. - The large-scale target level is approaching, with short-term lows and target levels deviating or showing pin-like fluctuations, and space for correction is limited; a stop in the U.S. stock market will trigger a phase of market oscillation and consolidation.
3. Four-hour cycle indicator resonance
- The Bollinger Bands are expanding downward, with prices breaking below the lower track, and short-term moving averages in a bearish arrangement; after a MACD death cross, it accelerated downward, with green energy bars increasing, and bearish momentum continuing to be released. - KDJ shows a weak turning point that has not formed an effective stop-loss, while the VR indicator is consolidating at a low position around 40, with sluggish trading; indicator resonance shows extremely weak market conditions, and it is expected to experience an accelerated decline to complete the final drop, realizing the clearing of bulls.
Short-term operational suggestions:
Bitcoin: Buy near 82,000-81,500, target: around 85,000-86,000 (stop loss at 1:0.5)
Ethereum: Buy near 2,660-2,630, target: around 2,750-2,780 (stop loss at 1:0.5)
The given strategy shouldn't be too aggressive; with everyone bearish, don't you know the tricks of the manipulators yet? Technically, there will definitely be a round of recovery and rise. The defense and take-profit levels have already been provided. The first round of long positions has already been validated, the market rises and then quickly retraces. Continue to lay out long positions for entry, perfectly achieving results.
On November 21, the market overall fell nearly 10,000 points, followed by market analysis and operational suggestions.
Last night, the market experienced violent fluctuations, with Bitcoin plunging nearly 7,700 points before rebounding from the 86,000 mark to the 88,200 area (a rebound of 2,200 points); Ethereum fell nearly 260 points before recovering from 2,790 to the 2,900 range (a rebound of about 110 points). In the early morning session, the market weakened again, with Bitcoin dropping from 87,400 to 85,300 (a sharp drop of 2,100 points), and Ethereum retreating from 2,885 to 2,770 (a drop of 115 points). In the midday session, panic sentiment was released, triggering a waterfall decline, with Bitcoin plummeting from 85,500 to 81,200 (a total daily drop of over 4,300 points), and Ethereum falling from 2,810 to 2,640 (a drop of 170 points).
2. In-depth analysis of Bitcoin's technical aspects (from the perspective of wave theory)
1. Key levels and Fibonacci reference
- The core focus is on the 0.318 Fibonacci level at 83,611 points, which is a key reference for trend judgment. - Short-term key support: the 77,000 area (near the ultimate target level); immediate support: the 83,000 line; short-term rebound resistance: below 88,000.
2. Wave structure and stop-loss conditions
- Currently presenting a double zigzag adjustment wave pattern, with strong downward momentum; only after breaking the 94,479 pressure level will there be a clear stop-loss signal. - The large-scale target level is approaching, with short-term lows and target levels deviating or showing pin-like fluctuations, and space for correction is limited; a stop in the U.S. stock market will trigger a phase of market oscillation and consolidation.
3. Four-hour cycle indicator resonance
- The Bollinger Bands are expanding downward, with prices breaking below the lower track, and short-term moving averages in a bearish arrangement; after a MACD death cross, it accelerated downward, with green energy bars increasing, and bearish momentum continuing to be released. - KDJ shows a weak turning point that has not formed an effective stop-loss, while the VR indicator is consolidating at a low position around 40, with sluggish trading; indicator resonance shows extremely weak market conditions, and it is expected to experience an accelerated decline to complete the final drop, realizing the clearing of bulls.
Short-term operational suggestions:
Bitcoin: Buy near 82,000-81,500, target: around 85,000-86,000 (stop loss at 1:0.5)
Ethereum: Buy near 2,660-2,630, target: around 2,750-2,780 (stop loss at 1:0.5)
On November 21, the market overall fell nearly 10,000 points, followed by market analysis and operational suggestions.
Last night, the market experienced violent fluctuations, with Bitcoin plunging nearly 7,700 points before rebounding from the 86,000 mark to the 88,200 area (a rebound of 2,200 points); Ethereum fell nearly 260 points before recovering from 2,790 to the 2,900 range (a rebound of about 110 points). In the early morning session, the market weakened again, with Bitcoin dropping from 87,400 to 85,300 (a sharp drop of 2,100 points), and Ethereum retreating from 2,885 to 2,770 (a drop of 115 points). In the midday session, panic sentiment was released, triggering a waterfall decline, with Bitcoin plummeting from 85,500 to 81,200 (a total daily drop of over 4,300 points), and Ethereum falling from 2,810 to 2,640 (a drop of 170 points).
2. In-depth analysis of Bitcoin's technical aspects (from the perspective of wave theory)
1. Key levels and Fibonacci reference
- The core focus is on the 0.318 Fibonacci level at 83,611 points, which is a key reference for trend judgment. - Short-term key support: the 77,000 area (near the ultimate target level); immediate support: the 83,000 line; short-term rebound resistance: below 88,000.
2. Wave structure and stop-loss conditions
- Currently presenting a double zigzag adjustment wave pattern, with strong downward momentum; only after breaking the 94,479 pressure level will there be a clear stop-loss signal. - The large-scale target level is approaching, with short-term lows and target levels deviating or showing pin-like fluctuations, and space for correction is limited; a stop in the U.S. stock market will trigger a phase of market oscillation and consolidation.
3. Four-hour cycle indicator resonance
- The Bollinger Bands are expanding downward, with prices breaking below the lower track, and short-term moving averages in a bearish arrangement; after a MACD death cross, it accelerated downward, with green energy bars increasing, and bearish momentum continuing to be released. - KDJ shows a weak turning point that has not formed an effective stop-loss, while the VR indicator is consolidating at a low position around 40, with sluggish trading; indicator resonance shows extremely weak market conditions, and it is expected to experience an accelerated decline to complete the final drop, realizing the clearing of bulls.
Short-term operational suggestions:
Bitcoin: Buy near 82,000-81,500, target: around 85,000-86,000 (stop loss at 1:0.5)
Ethereum: Buy near 2,660-2,630, target: around 2,750-2,780 (stop loss at 1:0.5)
Market hotspots are emerging, anchoring trends for strategic layout; when the market performance is below expectations and lacks clear logic, decisively cut losses and exit, refusing hesitation and internal friction. There is no absolute bottom in the market, risk management is the core of trading, using position management and stop-loss mechanisms to lock in potential risks.
Trading without regrets, deeply cultivating the cryptocurrency track means not having to be entangled in a single operation—every decision is a practice of market understanding, accumulating review experience is far more valuable than dwelling on mistakes. Replacing emotional friction with rational iteration enables continuous advancement amidst fluctuations.
In the analysis of the Fibonacci sequence throughout the entire cycle, the red line at 83611 is at the 0.318 key position. This position has significant reference value for determining market trends and should be given special attention.
2. Adjustment Wave and Stop Loss Judgment
The current market presents a double sawtooth adjustment wave pattern, which often has significant downward momentum. Only when the price successfully breaks through the white line at 94479 pressure level can we consider the possibility of a market bottoming out.
Special Reminder: This article is solely based on wave theory for a technical discussion of BTC market trends and does not constitute any investment advice. The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile and carries significant risks. Investors should fully assess their risk tolerance and make rational investment decisions.
From the perspective of the Fibonacci sequence, the 2750 point is at the 0.618 key support level. Currently, the market is showing a blue three-segment rebound trend. As this rebound has not managed to break through the 3057 pressure level, it is expected that there will still be a downward trend ahead. Only when the price successfully breaks through 3057 can a larger scale rebound be anticipated.
II. Channel Operation Observation
The current price is at the edge of a downward channel. Close attention must be paid to the price's operation within the channel moving forward, as this is significant for judging the continuation or reversal of the trend.
Special Note: This article is solely based on wave theory for technical discussion of the market and does not constitute any investment advice. The cryptocurrency market is extremely risky, and price fluctuations are severe. Investors must make rational judgments and fully consider their own risk tolerance before making decisions.
Epic Crash of Cryptocurrencies: Trillion-Dollar Market Cap Vanishes, Bitcoin Aiming for the $77,000 Line of Life and Death
The 'bloodbath' correction in the cryptocurrency market in 2025 escalated on Wednesday, bringing severe turbulence to the global digital asset space—Bitcoin's price hit a seven-month low, leading to an overall market capitalization evaporation of over $1 trillion, with panic sentiment spreading, making the $77,424 key support level the focus of global investors.
Core market trend: From peak to deep correction, trillion-dollar market cap disappears.
- Bitcoin (BTC) briefly dropped to $88,522 during the New York trading session, significantly retreating from the $4.3 trillion total market cap peak on October 6, with the current total market cap around $3.2 trillion.