During the Three Kingdoms period, Liu Bei was able to stand shoulder to shoulder with Wu and Wei thanks to Zhuge Liang. I am not talented, and although I am not even a fraction as good as Mr. Zhuge, I am still a leader in this field and can strategize to remain undefeated.
Bitcoin has entered a consolidation phase at a high level after a strong rise. The Bollinger Bands on the 4-hour chart are narrowing, and the downward momentum has significantly weakened. The current pullback is a correction, with key support around 91000 where the downward momentum is weakening, often indicating a buildup for a breakout. In the evening, attention can be paid to the support area for gradual positioning, with solid support below; the pullback may provide a better entry opportunity.
Bitcoin rebounded after a dip in the early morning, but upward pressure is evident. Multiple attempts to test 94000 have failed, causing the price to retreat. Key levels to watch are the support at 90100-92000 and resistance at 94000. The daily chart has not broken the key pressure level, and the 4-hour volume has shrunk, with the market entering a consolidation phase, making a one-sided trend difficult in the short term. In terms of operations, it is advisable to trade around the key levels by selling high and buying low.
The number of unemployment benefit recipients in the United States has dropped to 191,000. Institutions remind that due to the Thanksgiving holiday, the data may be underestimated, and a rebound next week would be normal. The four-week moving average has fallen to 214,700. The number of people continuously receiving unemployment benefits has decreased to 1,939,000, the lowest since the beginning of October. In November, net job losses are expected to be about 9,000, with significant layoffs in retail, leisure, and manufacturing. Employment growth is seen in education/healthcare and public administration sectors. This may indicate a negative total non-farm employment number for November. The Chicago Fed's real-time unemployment rate forecast for November remains at 4.44%.
The Bitcoin midday market surged and then entered a consolidation phase. The 4-hour level shows that support is forming, the intensity of the pullback has eased, and the lows are showing signs of gradually rising, with short-term stabilization characteristics appearing.
Current recovery momentum is strengthening, and in the future, continue to focus on the continuation of the bulls. In the short term, it is recommended to buy on dips.
Bitcoin has broken through 94000 and entered a correction, the trend is as expected. Last night the switch between long and short was quick, timely profit-taking was possible. Current retracement momentum is slowing, and there is obvious support below. In terms of operation, it is recommended to focus on low long positions.
The non-farm report shows that in November, U.S. private sector employment decreased by 32,000 jobs, with a significant decline in small business positions, further exacerbating the slowdown in the labor market. Large enterprises added a net of 90,000 jobs, but companies with fewer than 50 employees reduced 120,000 positions, marking the largest decrease since March 2023. By industry, layoffs were significant in professional services, information services, and manufacturing. Wage growth has slowed, with wages for retained employees rising by 4.4% year-on-year. Following the data release, spot gold rose slightly to $4220. This is the last employment data before the Federal Reserve's December meeting, with a nearly 90% probability of another rate cut expected. Official non-farm data has been delayed and will be released on December 16.
The decline of Bitcoin is slowing down. After the small non-farm data tonight, it is expected to test the 92000 support. If it stabilizes, consider long positions; if it breaks below, focus on the defense at 91000.
Tonight's "Little Non-Farm" data may become a key barometer for the Federal Reserve
The US November ADP employment data will be released tonight at 21:15. With the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting coming up next week and the official non-farm and inflation data unusually missing this time, the ADP report may become an important basis for the Federal Reserve to assess the current state of the employment market in the absence of key economic indicators.
Old Te was clamoring last night for a rate cut, which caused a significant rebound in the market. Bitcoin's price reached around 92300 on the 4-hour chart. This position is a key resistance area and has not yet formed an effective breakthrough. If it cannot hold above 92000, it may retest the middle support of the Bollinger Bands, and one must be wary of the risk of falling back under pressure.
Bitcoin rebounded in the morning and then consolidated, weakening and retracing in the afternoon, confirming a bearish judgment. The 4-hour level rebound is weak, and the bearish pattern remains unchanged. Currently, this is a downward continuation, and the rebound is merely a technical correction. In terms of operation, maintain a bearish mindset.
Bitcoin rebounded after a pullback, the 4-hour level is still dominated by bears, the Bollinger Bands are opening downwards, and the price is under pressure below the middle track. The rebound reached the previous resistance zone, but the volume shrank and failed to break through, and momentum is exhausted. It is recommended to maintain a bearish outlook.
I admit that I was relatively cautious in today's first round of rebound this afternoon, but taking timely action after tonight's round of rebound is due respect for the market trend.
Bitcoin's current market is weak; although it has stopped falling on the 4-hour level, the rebound lacks strength and the recovery is a technical correction. Overall, it is still in a downward channel, and a short-term rebound is unlikely to last. It is recommended to primarily take short positions in line with the trend, paying attention to signals of rebound resistance.
The new week starts with selling pressure, negative news suddenly hitting the market, mainstream coins and altcoins all falling back, which aligns with the anticipated correction. The previous probing of 90,000 indeed turned out to be a false break.
The current trend has clearly shifted, and timely adjustments in strategy to look bearish in line with the trend are necessary. The market always respects trends, and being flexible in response is the way to survive.
Bitcoin is currently showing a narrow convergence pattern, and the market continues to exhibit a range-bound game. The weekend market transitioned from wide fluctuations to narrow consolidation, with resistance around 91500 and support at the integer level of 90000.
Short-term operations still recommend maintaining a high sell and low buy approach, seizing opportunities in line with the characteristics of range fluctuations.
Bitcoin fell back after reaching 93000 yesterday. Short-term rebounds are weak, and there is still space for a downturn in the short term. Focus on short positions in the 91000-91500 area, with a target of 90000. If it breaks, you can hold; if it stabilizes, you can consider a short-term long position. The weekend market has low volatility, so it’s best to take profits when you can.
The current upward resistance of Bitcoin is significant, and the difficulty of breaking through is high. Coupled with the continuous closure of the US stock market during Thanksgiving and weekend factors, market liquidity is expected to remain thin, and the volatility space is limited. Short-term advice is to focus on a high short strategy, take profits when available!