加密币报

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Significant positive developments have suddenly come together, and the market direction and logic are truly about to change. A new round of market activity may be just around the corner:

1. Major technical upgrades: The latest upgrade of Ethereum has been completed, with the core change being that all Layer 2 transactions must pay fees to the mainnet and burn ETH. This means that the more active the ecosystem and the more Layer 2 is used, the faster ETH will be burned, directly enhancing its scarcity. Previously, the growth of the ecosystem did not benefit the mainnet much, but this has completely changed.

2. Policies are loosening: The former chairman of the U.S. SEC revealed that the Bitcoin market structure bill is about to be passed. Although he has left office, his words carry significant weight. This indicates that the barriers to cryptocurrency's integration into mainstream finance are being cleared, and the compliance process is accelerating, making it smoother for large funds to enter the market in the future.

3. Macro assistance: According to the latest data, the market believes that the probability of the Federal Reserve lowering interest rates soon has surged to nearly 90%! Once interest rates are lowered, global funds will prefer risk assets more, and assets like Bitcoin, which have anti-inflation and technological attributes, will undoubtedly receive greater attention.

在加密市场，短线不是靠感觉，更不是靠运气。
真正能长期活下来的，都是靠一套可复制、可执行的规则。

这里分享我自己总结的 短线六大必杀法 ——简单、实用、但极其有效：

1. 盘整必变盘，方向不明绝不先手
高位横盘别冲动，低位磨底别慌割。
震荡期最容易把人洗没，真正的机会永远在“突破”之后，而不是乱打提前量。

2. 横盘藏陷阱，少操作就是赢
横着的时候杠杆仓位最容易被点爆。
等突破，等回踩确认，不急，不抢，不手痒。

3. 阴线买、阳线卖，顺势但不追势
跌得狠、跌得快，往往是情绪过度；
涨得稳、涨得慢，往往是最好的卖点。
不是逆势，而是在情绪极端时反向拿收益。

4. 暴跌是机会，不是恐惧
跌得慢的行情，会磨你心态；
跌得快的行情，反而容易出现超跌反弹。
瀑布时别慌，盯位置，盯量能，反而更容易埋点。

5. 金字塔补仓，越跌越轻仓越稳
底部区间用金字塔建仓，每跌 10% 加一小部分仓。
好处很简单：降低成本 + 提前占位 + 不会梭哈爆掉。

6. 变盘一定快，清仓一定狠
暴涨后的横盘，不要恋战，先撤本金只吃利润。
暴跌后的横盘，不要幻想，及时止损才能活下来。
短线的核心就是“快”——快进、快出、快止损。

短线的底层逻辑其实只有四个字：按规则来。
不猜涨跌、
不追热点、
不赌方向、
只执行，
把每一笔都做到可复盘、可管理。

短线不需要你特别聪明，只需要你 有纪律。
保护本金、及时锁利，坚持把规则用够 100 次，你会发现：

账户会像开外挂一样稳步增长。
币圈不是比智商，
是比谁能在混沌市场里守住原则、稳住心态、坚持到底。

做到这点，你就已经赢过绝大多数人了。

目前比特币在高位进行盘整，还是维持继续反弹向上的观点，90100不跌破倾向于蓝线，跌破后倾向于红线，目标99000附近

【短期观点】
1）上方有一个流动性聚集的地方96012，价格突破后记得止盈部分多头仓位，容易回踩
2）4小时重要压力区间98000-100500，价格到可以止盈大部分仓位，然后慢慢转向空头

【中长期观点】
1、15443-126200上涨结束，顶部是126200，进入下跌周期
2、126200-80600视为第一段下跌且已经结束，进入反弹周期，高度会在99000或者107000这两个位置反转
3、80600作为近期的底部，不是中长期底，反弹后会跌破，看到7开头的大饼

The market may experience a major reversal around mid-next year.
Hassett is highly likely to be elected as the next Chair of the Federal Reserve.
Not to say there will be a raging bull market, but at least the subsequent market will be very promising.

First of all, Hassett is optimistic about the future of blockchain technology.
He has also served on the advisory board of Coinbase.
As a loyalist to Trump, once he takes office, he will definitely cooperate with the implementation of Trump's subsequent policies, thus shifting towards a more accommodative monetary policy.

This is a significant turning point for cryptocurrency.
A reversal may occur around mid-next year.

So, if we encounter a market crash, do not be too pessimistic.
I still stick to my strategy, accumulating positions in batches during a market crash.
Hold on to the chips and wait for the wind to come.

Market BTC ETH Current Key Support Levels:

--BTC: Secondary buying point, giving you another chance, enter positions at 94000-91700 points, take profit temporarily not set, stop loss: 91000

--ETH: Secondary buying point, giving you another chance, enter positions at 3200-3100 points, take profit temporarily not set, stop loss: 3000

2⃣ $BTC $ETH Rest stops during the upward process, there may be a few days of adjustment period here, and the possibility of a direct surge cannot be ruled out. Gradually enter positions, for example, if entered today without a price push, and if tomorrow remains in this area without a significant drop, continue to add positions.

二级等机会在操作玩一下链上，币安萌芽可以埋伏一下，当前市值45w左右，概念是币安教育新app名称，可能会是下一个giggle，所以等cz和一姐奶一口

ca：0xdd6e288faa77dea9a2affb6e51784deb2a3c4444

大的要来了，换手成功。华尔街买够了要开始拉盘了。

这几年和币圈的历史规律经验都不符合：

Q4暴涨论、四年周期、各种币圈技术指标。

这下华尔街全给你反着做，那币圈规律里明年的熊市会不会才是大牛市呢
🤣

The big pancake peaked on August 14, 2025, ending the upward trend and entering a correction, confirming that the correction level is in response to the rise since 15476; weekly level +.

The correction is currently in the fourth phase:

Phase 1: From 124553 to 103517 on October 17, 2025, is regarded as the first phase of the correction, seen as wave W;

Phase 2: A rebound from 103517 to 116410, seen as wave X;

Phase 3: A drop from 116410 to 80525, seen as wave Y;

Phase 4: The rebound that started from 80525 to now---.

This could be a new rise, but until there is more evidence, I still want to define it as a rebound. This rebound has currently gone through three phases:

Phase 1: This is a rebound in response to the drop since 116410, with the highest rebound reaching 93162, after which a correction and consolidation occurred; currently it is the third phase of the rebound, expanding the level to the rebound in response to the drop since 126296; 98197 is the resistance level for the next expanded rebound. It coincidentally overlaps with the 0.382 level from the highest point drop to the lowest point, and the strength of this rebound is also one of the important evidence to observe whether it is a rebound or a reversal.

Altcoins, as the biggest victims of the Bitcoin debt market, have the potential to surge violently during Bitcoin's rebound. I classify them into three types:

Type 1: ETH SOL, why not XRP or BNB? Because only ETH and SOL are most in sync with the market rhythm, regarded as leveraged Bitcoin. In the process of rising, their risk is that if an independent narrative emerges, they can break away from the big pancake and rise independently (and vice versa, for example, ETH's leveraged chain explosion), so it is considered to be more cost-effective to trade them in a definitive rebound market than to trade the big pancake (high volatility);

Type 2: Other altcoins that have suffered excessive declines and are rebounding;

Type 3: Memecoins that take advantage of the situation, which will form a main upward wave within 10---30 days.

In 2022, the market for the same level first declined by 50% in a bearish and volatile manner, then stabilized and rebounded by 46%. The fluctuations at that time were indeed larger than now...

At the same time, something else happened: MSTR was oversold...

Recently, I've been looking at that market situation during my free time, because purely from the price structure perspective, the two are very similar.

However, the 50% drop at that time has shrunk to the current 36%, so I calculated according to the same proportion; if it follows a similar fractal structure here, the rebound target would be around 108k...

Both market waves have similar long-term downward trend line constraints, and a real rebound occurs after the trend line is broken.

Therefore, the trading strategy has slightly changed; I will patiently wait for a volatile rebound until the price gradually exceeds 10w, and then consider starting a long-term short grid.

In 2022, I was misled by a range breakout here, as I bought 20 BTC at that time, and later suffered a severe loss when stopping out at 38000. This time, it definitely won't follow the exact same script, but the pattern of transitioning from a trend market to a large range volatility should remain unchanged.

Continue to wait~

FIR: Don't treat it as a worthless coin; this is an AI music factory where you can listen to music and earn coins!

Real data:

Kay Tse and AI co-created a new song that landed at No. 2 on the Tencent chart.

Kwan Zhong Huang covered an AI-composed song, and the BGM from Stephen Chow's movie sold out as soon as it was released.

The platform has released 200,000 songs with 16 million daily active users—listen to music and earn coins.

Revenue activation:

Song copyright income goes into the staking pool, and user-generated content directly distributes dividends.

The market value is only a few million, yet the trading volume has skyrocketed by 20 times.

This is not a dream of the future; it is the ongoing “listening to music mining + celebrity IP + copyright dividends” triple kill model! The window to join will soon close, and missing it could mean missing the breakout opportunity in Web3 music.

Is the BTC price going to surge to 100,000?

The target position is definitely around the 100,000 level, but will it reach 100,000 that quickly? Before hitting 100,000, there is a very important and relatively wide resistance range,【94600-96000】. Although this range will eventually be overcome by the main forces, it is indeed a resistance area that can cause price stagnation in the short term. So it deserves some respect. When the 96000 level is effectively broken and stabilized, we can talk about 100,000.

Currently, the price is moving upward in a relatively smooth manner, mainly because the selling pressure above is not large, with one wave of continuous declines and one wave of violent liquidations, leaving the bears quite battered. When the bears regroup, it will take a bit more time. So in the short term, look for low buy positions; buy small on small dips and buy big on large dips. The more reliable effective support range below is【90800-91200】, but today it may not be able to retrace there. I think if the price can retrace to this level in the next couple of days, those who are out of the market might as well take a position; if it breaks below, then just add to the position. Unless there is an extremely strong bearish signal, then tomorrow's little essay can be discussed.

Also, pay attention to the closer support level, which is around the 91900 level. If this holds, then the range【90800-91200】 won’t matter.

To summarize, if you really want to short, wait for the price to reach the large resistance range【94600-96000】 before doing so. Otherwise, just focus on the support levels below, one is around the 91900 level, and the other is the range【90800-91200】.

The current pressure for Bitcoin is in the range of 93-95, which corresponds to the 12/16 hour position, and for a pullback, first pay attention to 88-86; next look at 84-82; if it rebounds, then watch 96-98, and even near 100,000.
For the intraday support, look for a pullback in the 30-minute to 1-hour level.

The current key pressure for Ethereum is in the range of 3050-3150, for a pullback first look at 2850-2750; then look at 2650-2550, if it breaks below 2500, recognize the mistake and stop loss; if it stops falling and rebounds, then look near 3200.

Do not chase other intermediate positions, as they are in a neutral sticky zone; if you chase, it is easy to end up being stuck during rebounds; we only place orders at suitable price levels.

First support is light positions, second support can be a bit bolder, with stop loss.

Why is the long-term return of "entering the market in extreme fear" better than any technical indicator?
Because
1. Look at the fear index, not the K-line; the K-line makes you panic, while the index keeps you calm.
2. Build positions in batches, don’t bet on a single point; no one can buy at the lowest point, but you can buy within the bottom range.

3. Set a stop-loss, don’t hold on stubbornly, and keep the next entry opportunity.

Specific operation: divide the funds into three equal parts,
when BTC has already fallen 30% and market sentiment is extremely fearful, start building a position to bottom-fish 30%.
If it continues to drop 10%-15%, buy another 30%. If it drops another 10%-15%, buy 40%.

In an overlooked corner, an AI + music project is quietly building its foundation - FIR.

Binance Alpha debut, the first AI music platform

Circulating market value is only $5 million, down more than 90% from its peak

80,000 real holder addresses, users earn points by listening to music and creating

Co-creation with stars like Kay Tse and Wang Feng, songs topping mainstream charts

Trading volume amplifies, price below the main cost range

Opportunity:

Current market value is low, if there are favorable developments or market recovery, the market value is expected to quickly rebound to the tens of millions level, with significant potential for growth.

Key:

See the value that others overlook, bottom signals have already emerged.

个人判断短期这是最后一次二探
之前8w强支撑的理由现在同样成立

只是现在令人不安的指标是btc的月线

月线的左肩和头已经走出来了，如果是头肩顶的走法，那明年年初会有一波反弹，反弹上10w并且无法破新高的情况下，大级别头肩顶会走出来

头肩顶这种形态一旦形成基本上没有解法，妥妥的大熊市

现在说明年的事情有点早，不确定因素还很多

短期的判断如下，看看我的判断是否正确
1、周线级别的二探，可能会摸一下11月的最低点80600甚至跌破，但即使跌破后也会快速收回，至此二探结束并且正式开始圣诞节反弹行情。

2、接下来年底到明年年初反弹直至10500以上

再看

A couple of months after Japan raises interest rates, I will prepare to buy the dip in spot trading. The most important amount of capital is just waiting for the biggest opportunity to strike. I don't easily buy spot; when I do buy, it must be close to the lowest point of a major cycle. Just like I won't buy a single doge unless it drops to the range of 0.085-0.046. The price of 0.15-0.10 is too high; the maximum profit in the next bull market will only be 3-4 times, which is not significant.