分析师逍遥哥

Japan's interest rate hike is approaching, don't rush to catch the bottom for BTC! 💣

Suddenly plummeting on Friday morning, many people panicked. Don't worry, the real pressure cooker is still ahead—Japan's central bank meeting on the 18th-19th, Polymarket data shows the probability of raising interest rates to 0.75% has soared to 98%, almost a done deal!

This will be Japan's highest interest rate in 30 years, directly impacting global liquidity.

Core logic: Yen arbitrage trading is reversing!

For many years, institutions borrowed nearly zero-cost yen, exchanged it for dollars to buy Bitcoin and other assets, easily earning interest differentials. Now, with Japan raising interest rates, the cost of borrowing has skyrocketed, and the arbitrage space is rapidly shrinking—large funds must sell assets and convert back to yen to repay debts.

That's why BTC gets sold off whenever there's a rebound. It's not a collapse of faith, but a reversal of liquidity patterns.

Remember two points:

1. Don't try to catch the bottom just because you see too much bearishness; you can't catch the 'flying knife' in a downtrend;
2. Preserve your capital and wait for panic emotions to be released. Only after this wave of forced selling ends and the market clears will it be the right time to pick up bargains.

In the short term, hold tight, keep your bullets ready; opportunities always arise after a crisis. #巨鲸动向 $BTC

The cryptocurrency market experienced a single-day liquidation of 19.3 billion! Trump's 18 trillion tariffs in 10 months have become the biggest 'black swan' in the crypto market.

Experts are collectively silent! Who would have thought that Trump's tariff stick would become the 'trader' of the cryptocurrency market's ups and downs?

In just 10 months, he collected 18 trillion dollars in tariffs, a shocking answer sheet from Trump—considering that the total tariffs under the Biden administration over four years were less than 1 trillion, an 18-fold difference that directly rewrote the global trade pattern and turned the crypto market upside down.

Since the implementation of 'reciprocal tariffs' in April 2025, U.S. tariffs on China have surged to 145%, causing a collective shock in global risk assets. The cryptocurrency market was hit hardest: on October 10, a single-day liquidation of 19.3 billion dollars occurred, with 1.67 million traders forced to close positions. Bitcoin plummeted 15% to below 104,000 dollars, while Ethereum, Dogecoin, and others fell more than 20%. The stablecoin USDe temporarily depegged to 0.65 dollars, marking a historical disaster in the cryptocurrency space.

Why could the tariff storm precisely impact the crypto market? The core reason lies in Trump's trade policy, which has completely rewritten the logic of liquidity: the global risk-averse sentiment triggered by tariffs has caused funds to flee high-risk assets wildly, while the high leverage characteristic of the crypto market has magnified this volatility instantly, forming a transmission chain of 'tariff escalation → U.S. stock market fluctuations → chain liquidations in the crypto market.'

But the reversal came even faster! When U.S.-China economic and trade negotiations released signals of easing, the tariff conflict cooled down, and the crypto market welcomed a strong counterattack: Bitcoin surged 4% in a single day, returning to 115,000 dollars, while Ethereum, SOL, and other cryptocurrencies saw increases of over 10%. Funds flowed back into the crypto market from risk-averse assets, showcasing an extreme 'roller coaster' market.

From plummet to surge, the crypto market has proven in the most brutal way that Trump's tariff policy has long become the core variable affecting the crypto market. Without the election in November 2024, there wouldn't be a president willing to use tariffs as a weapon, and there wouldn't be the current extreme pattern of 'tariffs determining rises and falls' in the crypto market.

Moving forward, as long as Trump's tariff policy continues, the high volatility in the crypto market will not stop. What should be focused on now is not the experts' rise and fall predictions, but every detail of the U.S.-China tariff negotiations—after all, the next 19.3 billion-level liquidation or surge may be hidden within new tariff policies.

#巨鲸动向 $BTC

📈 Seize the 800-point ETH trend, why do 98% of people still miss out?

This round of Ethereum's performance can be described as a perfect script——
3050→3450→3050, precise band timing, the rhythm is full!
But the reality is that the vast majority of people watch the market fluctuate, yet find it hard to even bite down on 20 points.

Why?
It's not that the market hasn't provided opportunities, but too many people——
⚠️ Panic in volatility, greed during rises
⚠️ Always wanting to buy at the lowest and sell at the highest, instead missing the timing
⚠️ Watching others “take from 100 to 500,” but unable to hold onto the trend themselves

Those who can truly grasp the market often only do two things:
1️⃣ Be “greedy” in a trend — when the direction is clear, let profits run
2️⃣ Be “conservative” in volatility — when things are unclear, it's better to wait and not act recklessly

Just like this time, many are waiting for ETH to drop to 2620, or surge to 3880…
But the experts had already locked in space during the band, with position adjustments in moderation, not guessing tops and bottoms, only following the rhythm.

💡 The key is not in prediction, but in response——
“Appropriate timing is more important than appropriate pricing.”

Currently, BTC is fluctuating and building momentum, ETH's trend is gradually becoming independent,
Are you the bystander who only watches and does nothing, or the hunter who has already formulated an attack plan?

⬇️ Let's discuss in the comments:
Where do you think the key position for ETH's next phase is?
To seize the trend, which habit needs to change?

(Like and follow for the next share: How to use 'position thinking' to lock in band profits) #ETH走势分析 $ETH

Breaking News: Luna founder sentenced to 15 years! US judge strikes hard in the largest crypto collapse case in history

$40 billion evaporated overnight!

The Wall Street Journal reports: The globally sensational Terra-Luna $100 billion financial collapse case has just reached its final verdict. Its founder, Do Kwon, has been officially sentenced to 15 years in prison by a US court for fraud.

"He chose lies" — The presiding judge harshly pointed out the defendant's systematic fraud in court, directly stating that he orchestrated one of the most severe collapses in cryptocurrency history. This case directly resulted in over 400,000 investors losing everything, with the value of related tokens plummeting by 99.9% at one point.

This financial disaster, which began in May 2022, wiped out $40 billion in market value in just a few days, triggering a chain avalanche in the global crypto market, and remains one of the most painful lessons in the crypto space to this day.

Netizens are hotly discussing:

"A relief! Should have been caught long ago"
"Who can compensate our losses?"
"Remember this name: Do Kwon, one of the biggest fraudsters in crypto history"

Currently, the Do Kwon team still faces collective lawsuits from investors in multiple countries. This ruling is seen as a milestone event for global crypto regulation, marking the beginning of legal action against the "chaos in the crypto space." #加密市场反弹 $BTC

Brothers, a significant signal has arrived! Just now, the Federal Reserve has turned its guns around.
From the continuously high-pressure "interest rate knife" to the sudden "liquidity bottle" presented tonight—cutting rates by 25 basis points, plus a monthly $40 billion U.S. Treasury purchase plan. This set of combinations is not just a shift; it directly "pumps water" into the global market, especially the cryptocurrency circle.
Don’t understand the terminology? In simple terms: The Federal Reserve has turned on the switch, and money will start flowing out.
Why is this a heavenly signal for the cryptocurrency circle?
1. The underlying logic has changed: The bull and bear markets in the crypto world are essentially a game of liquidity. When money is tight, everything falls; when money is loose, risk assets party. The Federal Reserve has held the "interest rate knife" for the past two years, suffocating the crypto market. Now the knife is sheathed, and the bottle is handed out; the rules of the game have reversed.
2. The devil is in the details: This statement quietly removed the phrase "low unemployment rate." This is like a tough guy suddenly showing weakness, indicating he is worried the economy cannot withstand it and must loosen up to save it. This is not a short-term compromise; this is a strategic pivot. 3. There is certainty for the future: The latest dot plot suggests that the rate-cutting cycle may last until 2026. This is not just a sip from a bottle; it tells you: in the coming years, the milk supply will be abundant.
The script of history is always remarkably similar. Looking back to March 2020, when the Federal Reserve began unlimited liquidity injections, what happened next? Bitcoin surged from the abyss of over $3,000 to a historic peak of $69,000. That was a complete "water buffalo" born from the flood of liquidity.
Today, the same trigger!
This means that those who left the market due to dollar tightening, and the hot money that had nowhere to go in traditional markets, are likely to surge back in search of an outlet. And the crypto market—this emerging asset pool with high volatility, strong consensus, and anti-inflation narrative—is undoubtedly one of the most likely targets.
Finally, let’s get real:
When a clear wind starts to blow, smart hunters do not wait for all the prey to come out before taking action. They prepare their bullets before dawn.
The gears of the cycle have begun to turn; the liquidity-driven narrative is being rewritten. The market never waits for anyone.
Keep following the trend and stay sharp. The future is here! #美联储FOMC会议 $BTC

Tonight, the global market is only waiting for one thing: the Fed's 'hawkish rate cut'.

At 3 AM Beijing time, the interest rate decision will be announced. A rate cut of 25 basis points is almost certain.

But this time, it's completely different.

The 'hawkish rate cut' is coming—cutting rates while clearly hinting: this may be the last time in the near future. The subtle moment of policy shift is tonight.

There are only three core points to watch:

1. Powell's 'one sentence'
The post-meeting statement and press conference are key. Goldman Sachs expects the wording to return to 'cautious', suggesting that the threshold for another rate cut has been significantly raised. How Powell defines 'the last time' will determine the market direction.
2. Serious internal division
This voting may show rare disagreement:
• Some are worried about employment and insist on a rate cut;
• More are wary of inflation and demand to stop;
• There may even be multiple dissenting votes. The more serious the internal division, the greater the market volatility.
3. An overlooked signal
Besides interest rates, the balance sheet may quietly shift. To alleviate market pressure, the Fed may restart bond purchases—this is not a full-scale easing, but it is a liquidity signal that cannot be ignored.

Just before the resolution, the market has already moved in advance:
$BTC broke through 94588 strongly, $ETH surged to 3397! This is not a coincidence.

Global funds are betting on the next chapter.

After tonight, is the easing cycle really over? All answers will soon be revealed.

Follow me for the first interpretation of the Fed's major resolution and seize the market turning point. $BTC #美联储FOMC会议

The historical ups and downs of BTC fully prove: The highest realm of investment can be summed up in two words: waiting.

Why are top investors called "financial crocodiles" instead of lions, tigers, or sharks?
Because although lions and tigers are strong, hunting consumes a lot of energy and can even lead to injury; sharks are fierce but need to keep swimming to survive.
Only crocodiles can lie in wait in the water at a place where prey must pass, waiting for days or even weeks.

Once they strike, it's a lethal blow; if they miss, they quickly retreat.
They do not engage in ineffective pursuits, do not take unnecessary risks, and do not waste a bit of energy.

You see them as passive, but they actually control the situation—using the least energy to gain the maximum profit.
This is just like top investors: they ambush only in opportunities they are good at; if they do not strike, they are guaranteed to win when they do.

Crocodiles have survived since the age of dinosaurs, for over two hundred million years.
Not because they are the strongest, but because they understand the most: rest in the markets that do not belong to them, and fully consume in the opportunities that belong to them.

Real investment wisdom often looks like nothing has been done.
While others are frequently trading, they are waiting;
when the market is volatile, they are observing calmly.

Learn to be like a crocodile:

· Choose your water (circle of competence)
· Lie in wait (maintain patience)
· Strike and retreat (be decisive in stop-loss)

Waiting is not giving up, but the highest offensive strategy.

If you always feel that investing is tiring, it may not be because there are too few opportunities, but because you are chasing too many.
Stop and wait for the wind to come.

---

Like and follow, on the road of trading, let’s learn the "art of waiting" together.
(Share this with your friends, maybe they need this reminder)#美联储重启降息步伐 $BTC

《LUNA Daily Surge Nearly 7%! Late at night, two regulatory heavyweights strike at stablecoins! Retail investors are panicking, but the whales are laughing…》

A new regulation has set the internet ablaze!
Hong Kong's late-night raid: USDT without a license, retail investors can no longer touch it!
The mainland strikes at the same time: classifying stablecoins as "illegal financial activities," criminal liability is already in effect!
The entire network wails, "The bull market is over" — but the data quietly performs a stunning reversal!

Funds are moving secretly!
Just as everyone is watching the U price tremble, ETH suddenly surges violently, and BTC holding data changes overnight — smart money is frantically fleeing stablecoins, rushing to core assets!
This is not panic selling, but a silent reallocation action.

The knockout stage has begun, but what has been eliminated is not the bull market…
The regulatory iron fist shatters not the market, but the speculators' luck.
When grey funds are cleared out and compliance thresholds are raised — this is precisely the last cheap chip period before mainstream whales enter the market.

Don't ask if the "bull is still there"…
Ask yourself: when others are redeeming U, do you dare to catch the blood-stained chips?
History keeps repeating: after every regulatory storm, those who survive are the ones who remain greedy amidst panic.

🚨 Now, please answer:
In this wave of decline, do you see risk, or a once-in-three-years golden pit?
Is the target of BTC 100,000 dollars a dream, or an impending prophecy?
In the comments section, leave your real positions and operations — time will reward the clear-headed! #加密市场观察 $BTC

12.06 Key Wealth Password
I took a glance early in the morning, and it fell even more than before going to bed. Of course, the first to move was Bitcoin, and I can only say, it's quite lamentable.
1. $BTC inexplicably dropped from 93000 to below 90000 and approached 89000, I've heard the market price was directly smashed, I can't quite understand all of this;
2. $ETH is still quite strong, now it's still above 3000, let's see, after all, many people are saying that the BE trends are quite different;
3. $SOL still has a lot of wealth creation effects on-chain, let's see if it can bring back last year's momentum in the last month;
4. Haskett reiterated the stance on interest rate cuts, supporting the regional Fed chairman's proposal for new three-year residency rules;
5. Bitcoin treasury company Strive urges MSCI to "let the market decide" whether to remove it from the index;
6. Several EU countries jointly dismantled a cryptocurrency fraud network involving $815 million;
7. The US September core PCE fell short of expectations, lighting a green light for further interest rate cuts by the Fed; Bank of America: The market may soon digest expectations for a rate cut by the Fed in January;
8. Web3 job demand is picking up, but positions are still clearly in short supply;
Has everyone gone to work instead of trading coins?
9. Security company: LummaC2 virus infected North Korean hacker devices related to the Bybit theft case. #加密市场观察 $BTC

U.S. sudden military deployment, countdown to a "black swan" in the crypto world?

This weekend, the world's attention may be drawn to a sudden military action—various signs indicate that the U.S. may take significant action against Venezuela, which could trigger the next "black swan" in the crypto space.

Intense signals released, action imminent

First, U.S. high-level officials were unusually active late at night, frequently releasing signals; shortly after, the State Department issued a rare highest-level travel warning: "Leave immediately." On the military front, 11 warships, including strategic nuclear submarines, have been secretly deployed, and F/A-18 fighter jets are continuously conducting reconnaissance flights. Multiple intelligence sources indicate that the situation has reached a critical point.

Negotiations have collapsed, only the final option remains

Previously, Maduro's side proposed conditions such as "retaining military power for transition," but these have been completely rejected by the U.S. With the door to a political solution closed, military options are rapidly being put on the table. The intention of the U.S. in this action is clear: to eliminate the opponent's strategic foothold in South America while shifting internal pressure. Venezuela's complex terrain and vast area mean that if action unfolds, its impact will far exceed regional boundaries.

Financial market "black swan" warning

Historical experience shows that geopolitical crises are often the trigger for severe financial market fluctuations. If a military conflict breaks out this time, it will instantly raise the uncertainty of risk assets. For the crypto space, this could very likely become the next unexpected "black swan"—liquidity may sharply contract, and market sentiment could instantaneously reverse.

⚠️ The eye of the storm is forming. This weekend, the world holds its breath. #加密市场观察 $BTC

BlockBeats news, December 4, KobeissiLetter released a market analysis stating that cryptocurrency ETFs are making a comeback. Last week, cryptocurrency funds recorded an inflow of 1.1 billion dollars, reaching a new high in 7 weeks, marking a reversal from the previous 4 weeks of cumulative outflows totaling 4.7 billion dollars. The US cryptocurrency ETF led with an inflow of 994 million dollars, followed by Canada (98 million dollars) and Switzerland (24 million dollars), while Germany saw an outflow of 57 million dollars. Bitcoin led the inflow with a net inflow of 461 million dollars, followed by ETH with a net inflow of 308 million dollars. Meanwhile, investors withdrew 1.9 billion dollars from Bitcoin short ETPs. The upward momentum of cryptocurrency is returning #ETH走势分析 $ETH

· The Federal Reserve is changing! Powell suddenly resigns + the banking crypto gate opens, is it just a step away from 100,000 Bitcoin?

---

A historic turning point appears in the crypto world!
Just 24 hours after the market cheers Powell for giving the green light to banking crypto businesses, the Federal Reserve suddenly drops a bombshell—Powell confirms his resignation! Exclusive insider reports from Reuters point to a power shift in Washington, and global capital goes into a frenzy:

· The dollar index plunges sharply
· U.S. stock futures experience wild fluctuations
· Bitcoin rockets from $81,000 to $91,000, with a single-day increase breaking annual records

Three strange signals hide deadly traps

1. Time riddle: Why strike at the year-end liquidity drought? Is there a precise strike against the crypto market hidden behind this power handover?
2. Emergency meeting: The closed-door meeting tonight at 19:00 may trigger a policy nuclear change! Will the recently unshackled banking crypto channel be urgently halted?
3. Power struggle: Is the successor a bloodthirsty hawk or a dovish softener? This directly determines whether the assets in your account will go to zero or double!

Historical reenactment warning!

· In 2018, Powell took over, and BTC halved by 40% that month
· In 2022, during his reappointment, U.S. stocks suffered the worst washout in a decade
· In 2025, another power shift occurs, and the market has already shown signs of panic selling

Survival guide

· Dovish rise: The interest rate cut cycle starts early, and the crypto market will welcome a trillion-level liquidity tsunami
· Hawkish control: Hidden golden pits in short-term pain, Grayscale's GBTC premium continues to expand, revealing smart money layouts
· Emergency measures: The fear and greed index has peaked at 'extreme greed', should we go all in or cash out now?

Tonight is destined to be sleepless
The comment section is buzzing with predictions:

· Will the Federal Reserve freeze banking crypto operations overnight?
· Can Bitcoin break through the $100,000 life-and-death line?
· Are you betting on hawks or doves controlling the money printer?

Quick comments! Do you think this power game will ultimately be a strangulation or a feast?
(Real-time market highlights may be added depending on the situation, reprints must indicate the source) #加密市场反弹 $BTC

💰BlackRock is going crazy! In just 3 days, they've poured 600 million dollars into BTC/ETH, and exchanges are about to be bought out!

The latest on-chain alert has sounded—Wall Street giant BlackRock has just moved 300 BTC + 16,000 ETH from Coinbase's cold wallet! This marks the third large-scale transfer this week, totaling over 4,000 BTC and 80,000 ETH, equivalent to dropping a "funding nuclear bomb" into the crypto market every day.

🔥Even more astonishing data revealed:
• BlackRock's Ethereum ETF (ETHA) saw a net inflow of 68.26 million dollars in a single day, setting the second-highest record since its launch
• Their cryptocurrency ETF's total management scale has surpassed 115 billion dollars, equivalent to the entire GDP of Cambodia
• The exchange's BTC balance plummeted to 2.3 million coins, a five-year low

🏴‍☠️【Wall Street is rewriting the rules of the crypto world】
As traditional financial giants hold 10% of circulating ETH, the belief in decentralization is facing its ultimate test. Vitalik Buterin has issued three technical tweets, seemingly warning against institutional monopolies. What’s even more concerning is:
→ BlackRock's application for an ETH staking ETF is in the countdown
→ Bitcoin Layer 2 ecosystem TVL skyrocketed 340% this month
→ Grayscale's GBTC has achieved consecutive net inflows for the first time in 30 days

🚨Retail Survival Guide
1️⃣ Beware of "fake on-chain data"—over 60% of large transfers are actually ETF settlements
2️⃣ Keep an eye on BlackRock's wallet movements (addresses starting with 0x8B0)
3️⃣ Low market cap tokens may become the only safe haven

💣Three fuses about to ignite the market:

1. Ethereum ETF options will go live on CME this Friday
2. BlackRock's Q3 earnings report will disclose their crypto holdings for the first time
3. Only 43 days left for institutions to grab their shares before Bitcoin halving

👉Quick Review: Do you think this round of institutional bull can break past the previous highs?

(Bottom floating progress bar shows "Exchange ETH reserve urgency level 72%") #加密市场反弹 $BTC