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Gold and silver prices exploded today following data from the U.S. labor market that ignited the market; the United States saw a significant jump last week in the number of new applicants for unemployment benefits, an increase primarily related to the difficulty in adjusting data during the usual seasonal fluctuations at year-end.

Edward Dowd believes that gold is no longer just a speculative tool but has recently shifted into a top-tier cash asset following the final implementation of Basel III rules around the world earlier this year, which he believes paves the way for a long bullish trend that could push it to $10,000 an ounce.
David, the co-founder of Finance Technologies and former director at BlackRock, explained that gold is now repricing what he considers the end of the global sovereign debt bubble.

The title of today's analysis is
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I repeat to you, if you are reading the analysis to understand whether the trend is upward or downward, then avoid reading it. As a team, we aim in writing our analyses for you to understand and learn how to read market movements and be one step ahead, knowing how to make your decisions with your mind, not based on anyone's word. In short, this is primarily an educational post.

Gold prices have seen a notable jump of about 24% over the past three months, in a bullish movement that has attracted the attention of both investors and analysts. Looking at the chart of gold movement during this period, it is clear that the yellow metal has recently exited a phase of consolidation and sideways movement, breaking through a lateral range it was trading within, indicating a technical signal of the beginning of a new upward wave.

Futures contracts for gold fell to 4047.14 dollars per ounce, down by 0.65%, with a clear dominance of the downtrend in the market despite a short-term rebound. Data analysis via the WarrenAI platform indicates that any failure to break the resistance between 4068 and 4094 may lead to continued declines towards new lows, making the current area a potential trap for hasty buyers.

- The price of Ripple (XRP) is struggling to regain upward momentum after failing to break the resistance level at $2.50, raising questions about whether the recent pullback represents a buying opportunity or an indication of deeper weakness, as the currency is trading at $2.25 with slight losses over the last 24 hours, with a market cap estimated at about $135.4 billion and a daily trading volume exceeding $5.3 billion, making it one of the most active altcoins.

Cryptonews
- The price of Ripple (XRP) surged last Friday by 4.59% to $2.3140, driven by strong momentum following several parties submitting amended requests under the S-1 model to launch spot trading funds for the currency in the stock market (XRP Spot ETFs), in order to avoid delays caused by the U.S. government shutdown and its impact on approvals by the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), which had previously negatively affected predictions for the promising price of Ripple (XRP).

Global gold prices have witnessed a noticeable risin recent months of 2025, surpassing, at times, levels never seen before. At the same time, many believe this rise is due to an exceptional wave of demand from major global buyers, chief among them China.

However, upon closer examination of official data, it becomes clear that this belief is far from reality.

China Is No Longer Buying at the Previous Pace

During the first half of 2025, China added only about 19 tonnes of gold to its official reserves, according to the World Gold Council, bringing the total amount to approximately 2,298.5 tonnes by the end of June.

In the following months, the pace of purchasing slowed further:

· July 2025: about 1.86 tonnes
· August 2025: about 1.86 tonnes
· September 2025: nearly 1.2 tonnes
· October 2025: only about 0.93 tonnes (30,000 troy ounces)

This means the Chinese central bank added less than a tonne in October, its slowest purchasing pace since the beginning of 2023.

Nevertheless, gold prices continue to rise, creating a striking paradox between price movement and the behavior of the world's largest institutional buyer.

Behind the Chinese Slowdown

This decline in Chinese purchases can be explained by several logical factors:

1. Strategic Saturation: After a series of intensive purchases from 2022 until mid-2024, China appears to view its current reserves as sufficient to confront any potential financial or geopolitical disturbances.
2. Price Anticipation: Beijing may be waiting for more favorable price opportunities to buy, especially with gold exceeding levels considered expensive for central banks focused on diversifying their reserves.
3. Adjustment of Monetary Policy Priorities: There are indications that China is balancing between supporting its local currency, the Yuan, and reducing reliance on external purchases, which lessens the need to accumulate more gold in the short term.

Why Are Prices Rising Then?

If China is slowing its purchases, it is natural to ask: What is driving prices up then?
The answer lies in a mix of psychological,behavioral, and financial factors more than it is a result of tangible, real demand.

1. The Dominant Narrative and Psychological Speculation: The recurring discourse in the media and digital trading platforms – "gold never loses" and "gold is always a buy" – has become a powerful psychological driving force. This conviction ignites waves of emotional buying and short-term speculation, where investors enter the market driven by the Fear Of Missing Out (FOMO), without a real need or actual industrial demand for the metal.
2. Exaggerated Hedging Against Risks: Geopolitical turmoil, whether in the Middle East or Asia, in addition to uncertainty surrounding the upcoming US elections, has prompted investment funds to hedge through gold. However, this hedging does not necessarily mean buying physical gold; it often happens through futures contracts and exchange-traded funds (ETFs). This means the demand is more "paper" than real, making prices susceptible to rapid fluctuations at the first sign of profit-taking.
3. Excess Liquidity and Weak Real Returns: Despite the US Federal Reserve's attempts to tighten monetary policy, the real returns on US bonds remain low compared to inflation levels. In such an environment, investors look for alternatives that preserve value, so some turn to gold, even if temporarily. But this trend is driven by excess liquidity, not real demand, meaning it is unsustainable in the long term.
4. The Role of Currencies and the Dollar: Gold often moves inversely to the US dollar. During 2025, the dollar experienced some temporary declines due to weak economic data in the second quarter, which technically pushed prices higher, even without an increase in actual demand. This means the rise was a reaction to dollar weakness, not strength in gold's fundamentals.
5. Technical Analysis and the Impact of Algorithms: In the current digital age, a significant portion of gold trading is conducted through algorithmic systems that react to the breaching of resistance levels without deep fundamental analysis. When prices surpass psychological levels like $3,500 or $4,700, massive automatic buy orders are triggered by funds and institutions, creating rapid "price jumps" that appear to be driven by real demand but are actually the result of temporary technical movements.

History Repeats Itself: Gold Doesn't Rise Forever

It is important to remember that gold, despite its status as a safe haven, is not on a perpetual upward trajectory. It moves within clear temporal cycles where waves of rise and fall alternate based on macroeconomic factors, monetary policies, and the behavior of global investors.

When gold reached its first historical peak in September 2011 around $1,920 per ounce, it was the result of global financial panic following the 2008 financial crisis and the unprecedented quantitative easing launched by major central banks.

However, as soon as the US Federal Reserve began gradually raising interest rates and restoring confidence in the dollar, gold lost its investment luster, declining by about 40% in the following years to fall below $1,200 in 2015. This means that anyone who bought gold at the 2011 peak needed more than 13 years to recover the same price level in 2024—a very long period by investment return standards.

This behavior is not an exception; historically, gold goes through stages:

· The Sharp Rally Phase (FOMO rally): Investors rush into gold driven by fear or geopolitical tension, creating a short-term price bubble.
· The Saturation and Correction Phase: Once fears subside and monetary stability returns, prices gradually begin to correct as investors seeking higher returns exit.
· The Long Stagnation Phase: Prices stabilize within a narrow range for years before moving again with a new wave of crises or monetary easing.

Therefore, the continuous rise in gold from 2023 until 2025 does not necessarily mean we are facing an endless bull market; on the contrary, historical experience shows that every peak in gold prices has been a prelude to a long period of calm or a painful corrective decline.

The difference between a successful investor and an emotional speculator is that the first reads the timing and the economic cycle, while the second believes that gold "always rises"—a conviction supported by neither historical data nor economic logic.

Therefore, reading the gold market should not be based on emotion or tradition ("gold never loses"), but through understanding that this metal, like any other financial asset, is subject to the laws of supply and demand, interest rates, liquidity, inflation, and economic cycles.

Just as gold needed thirteen years to return to its 2011 peak, it may need a similar or longer period next time, unless the global monetary and financial structure changes radically.

In Summary

The current rise in gold prices does not reflect real demand from major buyers, but rather reflects inflated expectations and short-term investment behavior. As for China, the world's largest buyer, it has sent a clear message by slowing its purchases: the time is not right to increase accumulation, and current prices may have exceeded their logical range.

Thus, it can be said that while gold remains a safe haven in crises, its recent ascent is not based on a solid foundation of demand, but on psychological and collective perceptions that could dissipate at any moment.
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Financial markets are at a crossroads this week. Gold has always been seen as a safe haven, facing a pivotal moment as investors assess their options in a rapidly changing landscape. With tensions between the United States and China easing, and President Trump unexpectedly signaling a pessimistic stance on Tomahawk missile supplies, money is flowing from gold to higher-risk assets - including the ever-volatile Bitcoin.

The current analysis places Bitcoin (BTC) in a sensitive stage of technical and psychological balance, trading at $102,044 with a slight increase of 0.57% during the day. The market appears to be moving within a defined range between strong support at $100,000, which represents a major psychological barrier, and successive resistances at $110,000 and $116,000, reflecting a state of anticipation and search for a clear direction.