TraderCriptoBR

In my current reading, the market is still in a corrective movement. There is a possibility of a drop in the coming days towards the 85k region, before any new attempt to rise.
As $BTC has already experienced about three months of selling pressure, January may bring a technical breather, with a recovery that could seek the region between 92k–95k. Still, this would not characterize, at this moment, a reversal of the macro trend, but rather a relief movement.
For the following months, especially February and March, the scenario I consider most likely continues to be one of continuity of the correction, with possible areas of interest lower down, between 73k and 65k.
In light of this, the most prudent posture is to wait for a better definition of the price, avoiding impulsive purchases in the midst of the movement. Everyone should always align decisions with their risk profile and capital management.

Eu acho que até o final desse ano deve ter uma queda até perto de 85 mil, ai uma subida, mas não vai ser a reversão da tendência de baixa. Mas como estamos há 3 meses em queda, janeiro deve ter um respiro, talvez suba até 95k. Mas fevereiro e março acho que continua a queda, fundo acho 73 a 65 mil. Então espera pelo menos cair até 85 mil daqui uns dias e venda quando chegar a 95 mil, por que depois disso , pela minha análise vai cair feio.

The following is the annual inflation (understood as the increase in tokens in circulation over a year) of some cryptocurrencies:
BNB (BNB): −4.36%
Ethereum (ETH): 0.20%
Bitcoin Cash (BCH): 0.83%
Bitcoin (BTC): 0.84%
Litecoin (LTC): 1.75%
Aave (AAVE): 1.91%
Cardano (ADA): 2.28%
Avalanche (AVAX): 4.81%
Uniswap (UNI): 4.97%
XRP (XRP): 5.80%
Stellar (XLM): 7.22%
Polkadot (DOT): 7.58%
TRON (TRX): 9.82%
Chainlink (LINK): 10.97%
Hedera (HBAR): 11.83%
Dogecoin (DOGE): 14.04%
Solana (SOL): 17.31%
Sui (SUI): 27.64%

On the 19th, I mentioned that Bitcoin's rise would reach 90,000 before falling back to around 85,000. The first part has already been confirmed: the price rose to 90,000 and has now started to decline.
The scenario still requires caution. I believe that in January, Bitcoin might rise again, approaching 96,000. However, in February and March, it is likely that a more pronounced decline will occur, between 73,000 and 65,000. When the price falls below 77,000, I believe it will be the moment to start accumulating.
In the meantime, the more prudent stance is to maintain defensive positions, favoring stablecoins and assets such as PAXG or XAU.

Things I've noticed observing the crypto market:
The market usually follows a cycle of about 4 years. The year following Bitcoin's halving generally sees a new historical peak (2013, 2017, 2021, 2025), and the year after that comes a strong decline (2014, 2018, 2022, 2026). Over time, this cycle seems to be becoming less intense.
Almost the entire market revolves around Bitcoin: when it rises, most coins rise along with it. In bull markets, altcoins tend to rise more than BTC; in bear markets, Bitcoin falls less.
Trends exist, but the market spends most of its time moving sideways. Therefore, indicators that work well in trends need to be used with caution.
In a bull market, often it's better not to intervene and let it run.
In a bear market, oscillators that indicate oversold conditions tend to yield good results.
Some coins deviate from the pattern: TRX has little correlation with BTC and is less volatile than it. NEXO, despite being small cap, has lower volatility than SOL and XRP. Ethereum, on the other hand, fluctuates too much for a coin of its size.
Periods of calm usually come before significant movements. Very rapid rises are often followed by strong corrections.
When the main token of an ecosystem rises, the smaller ones tend to follow.
PAXG seems not to fall, but even it dropped sharply in 2022.
Coins that were successful in the last cycle may today be almost forgotten, like SUI, HBAR, and XLM.
Cardano seems "dead," but it still occasionally makes explosive highs, followed by larger declines.
Weekends tend to be more volatile, while Wednesdays have fewer reversals.
Coins with low volatility tend to have a slight upward bias in the long term.
Indicators that work in trends do not work well in sideways movement.

Good evening. This is my portfolio. I left the market in January and I am coming back now, still cautiously. At the moment, I am observing more than taking positions, as I believe the market may still bleed for some time. When I feel that this phase is coming to an end, I will start to gradually accumulate.

The greater exposure in TRX is because it tends to be less correlated with Bitcoin than other altcoins. As I expect BTC to drop to the range between 62 and 73 thousand, I believe that TRX will not suffer such sharp declines.

I hold BNB mainly for the recurring airdrops, although I recognize that it may still correct something around 7% to 15%. Below 80 thousand in Bitcoin, I intend to start accumulating more solid assets, still evaluating which ones exactly.

PAXG serves as protection, as it is backed by gold. Meanwhile, USDT and USDC remain in earn, generating returns while I stay in a defensive position.

Few people remember, but between April and May 2021, Bitcoin lost more than 50% of its value in less than 30 days, dropping from 64 thousand to 30 thousand dollars.

📉 Attention to excessive optimism in BTC today

Despite the day's rise and the celebratory atmosphere, the medium and long-term view still shows fragility in the market structure.

In broader timeframes, the signals remain negative:

Short term: still under pressure

Medium term: clear downtrend

Long term: no signs of reversal

Isolated highs after strong drops are generally relief movements, not indicative of a trend change. Historically, these peaks function more as bull traps than as the start of a new up cycle.

As long as longer periods do not show signs of reversal, the main trend remains downward. Risk management and patience continue to be more important than being carried away by green candles.

This morning I mentioned that this mini rise could take BTC up to ~90k, but afterwards it is likely to return to the range of 85k, maintaining descending lows and highs. In January, we may have a bounce to relieve three months of decline, followed by renewed pressure in the next 2 to 3 months.

In my view, the $BTC can rise up to 90k, then correct to the region of 85k and, subsequently, attempt a new high. However, this next high may not reach 90k again, as the macro trend is still bearish.
The structure of descending tops and bottoms tends to continue for a few months, although I believe that January may bring some relief, considering that the market has already been in three consecutive months of decline.
$BNB $TRX

How to deal with an oversold market

An oversold market is not a bottom; it is just a sign of excessive selling pressure. It can generate a technical rebound, but it can also continue to fall.

The main rule is not to operate with certainty. Work with scenarios: rebound, consolidation, or a new leg down.

Practical strategies:

Fractional buying: divide the capital into 3–5 parts and enter only at relevant supports or after price rejection. Ideal for medium/long term.

Wait for confirmation: more conservative. Enter when the RSI exits the oversold zone, there is a reversal candle, and volume is confirming. You may miss the bottom, but you make fewer mistakes.

Avoid traps: do not go all-in just because it “fell a lot”, do not increase your position without a plan, and do not confuse a rebound with a reversal.

Indicators:

RSI < 30 is an alert, not an entry. Better when it goes back above 30.

MACD helps when the histogram stops falling.

Price much below the averages indicates high risk.

Summary: oversold requires method, not courage.
$SOL $XRP $BNB

Cryptocurrency Market Analysis (Short Term)

The average RSI at ~43.5 indicates a slightly oversold market, but still without extreme panic. This suggests room for technical bounces, not necessarily a trend reversal. Among the major assets, $BTC and $ETH show a 4-hour RSI above 50, while in the 24-hour and 7-day periods they remain below 45, characterizing consolidation after a correction — typical of a resting market.

Among the large caps, $SOL, $XRP, $ADA, and $DOGE continue with a weekly RSI close to 35–37, signaling weakening momentum, but already in a zone where buyers tend to reappear. $BCH deviates from the pattern, with a high RSI, indicating possible short-term exhaustion.

In the normalized MACD, the scenario is mixed: about 65% of the assets are still positive, but with clear dispersion — several mid/small caps have already entered a bearish momentum, while some show occasional recovery. This reinforces the reading of a sideways market, with sector rotation and short-term trades more favorable than long directional positions.

Summary: possible technical relief environment, but still fragile; confirmations require simultaneous improvement of RSI and MACD in larger timeframes.

⚠️ Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational and opinion purposes only; it does not constitute investment advice. The cryptocurrency market is volatile, and if anyone follows this analysis and incurs financial losses, the responsibility lies solely with the investor.

What I believe may happen with Bitcoin is the following: there should still be a drop for another 3 to 5 months, possibly reaching the range of 60 thousand. From 73 thousand, in my view, it already starts to be a good point to begin accumulation with partial purchases.

Panic should still lead many players to sell, pushing the price to something around 65 to 62 thousand, but I believe that, from this region, the movement will return to being upward. Those who manage to position themselves between 73 and 62 thousand will probably be well positioned looking towards 2027.

$BTC
Flow data indicate sales by large players and concentrated purchases in retail.
This pattern usually precedes a longer correction, before the next accumulation phase.

The technical configuration of Ethereum at the moment indicates a bearish bias, with a trend of continued selling pressure. Optimistic entries require clearer reversal signals — for now, the caution alert prevails.

Good afternoon! This is my projection for tomorrow, Monday, December 15. The expectation is for a significant rise in the market, with a special highlight on Avalanche, as well as Solana, Hedera, and Chainlink, which should also show good movements. For Bitcoin, I expect a more contained appreciation, around 1%, while Ethereum may rise about 4%. Special attention to Dogecoin: according to my forecast, there is a risk of a sharp decline throughout the day.
$AVAX
$SOL
$HBAR

📊 Probability Ranking for High in the Next 24h – Quick Analysis

🔥 Highest probability of high

AAVE — 81%

BTC — 80%

SOMI — 68%

SUI — 67%

ENA — 64%

NEAR — 64%

ADA — 63%

AT — 61%

⚡ Moderate trend zone

ETH — 59%

SOL — 59%

HBAR — 59%

ZEC — 58%

DOGE — 58%

TRX — 58%

PEPE — 58%

PAXG — 56%

BCH — 56%

XRP — 55%

BNB — 52%

LUNC — 51%

BONK — 51%

UNI — 50%

🔹 Neutral or low probability

LINK — 49%

AVAX — 48%

LTC — 47%

TAO — 46%

PENGU — 44%

ASTER — 41%

GIGGLE — 41%

LUNA — 39%

$BCH
BCH maintains a moderate upward trend: price above the averages, K and D stable, RSI rising and MACD positive but weakening. Nearby resistance may limit advancement. Decreasing volume requires caution regarding the strength of the movement.

Buy $ID. I did this.

$ID

✅ Analysis — $ID

Trend:

Short term: slight increase

Macro: still bearish (MA105 above the price)

Indicators:

MA7 > MA35 → positive

KDJ rising → still has room

RSI 59 → no overbought

MACD weak, but positive

Low volume → no real strength yet

Important levels:

Support: 0.0732 and 0.0719

Resistance: 0.0754 and 0.0762 (MA105 – strong resistance)

Conclusion:
Price in a bullish pullback, but still within a larger downtrend.
To continue rising, it needs to break 0.0762 with volume.

$PEPE

Many people believe that certain shitcoins, which are worth only fractions of a cent, will someday reach US$ 1. But this is unrealistic.
If Pepe, for example, costs today US$ 0.00000456, to reach US$ 1 it would have to rise more than 2,000,000%. That would not happen even in a century.

And even if it did rise all that, with an offer of 420 trillion tokens, the market cap of the coin would be absurdly larger than the world GDP, which makes this scenario practically impossible.