土豆币币叨叨
公众号《土豆币币叨叨》：在币圈近十年从业者，三年职业交易员经验。历经两轮牛熊，自有投研团队，顶级一二级资源，擅长各种现货均线理论分析操作，以及短线合约策略入场布局！
94 Following
1.9K+ Followers
1.7K+ Liked
244 Shared
All
Quotes
Videos
PINNED
See original
Brothers, come to the Binance chat gathering
Seize future layout opportunities
Real-time sharing of swing and long-term strategies!
#币圈现状
Seize future layout opportunities
Real-time sharing of swing and long-term strategies!
#币圈现状
See original
December 6 Market Analysis: Short-term Turning into Long-term? Bitcoin, Ethereum, DeFi, SOL, ONDO, BUBBLE, Kurumi On-chain Strategy!
Bitcoin suddenly dropped to 89000. The crypto market never plays by the rules; unpredictability is the norm, which is also the reason many people incur losses. However, such volatile conditions can be a paradise for short-term traders, as long as they adhere to the bottom line of 'take profit when it's good.' If short-term traders think they can earn long-term profits, they are likely to end up with nothing.
BTC
Yesterday, Bitcoin experienced a significant pullback, once again falling below the key level of 90000, and is currently operating near a small support level. The strength of this decline is considerable, but the trading volume accompanying the past two days has clearly shrunk, indicating that the actual selling pressure is not large, and the market is more in a state of panic selling rather than large-scale capital exit.
BTC
Yesterday, Bitcoin experienced a significant pullback, once again falling below the key level of 90000, and is currently operating near a small support level. The strength of this decline is considerable, but the trading volume accompanying the past two days has clearly shrunk, indicating that the actual selling pressure is not large, and the market is more in a state of panic selling rather than large-scale capital exit.
See original
Today's pancake has returned to below 90,000, which belongs to an upward rebound, followed by a downward correction. This rise and fall is a normal phenomenon. In an uptrend, a decline may occur, and in a downtrend, an increase may happen; both are part of a consolidation phase. Overall, this kind of market trend can be considered a consolidation market, which is normal.
Judging the intricate details of market movements is actually not difficult. Currently, the hardest part is grasping the overall trend. If you cannot grasp this overall trend well, it is better not to act lightly. As the saying goes, be patient and continuously strengthen your own resolve. #BTC走势分析
Judging the intricate details of market movements is actually not difficult. Currently, the hardest part is grasping the overall trend. If you cannot grasp this overall trend well, it is better not to act lightly. As the saying goes, be patient and continuously strengthen your own resolve. #BTC走势分析
Translate
12月份有两个重要的方向却相反的利率决议：
12月10号美联储的利率决议大概率会降息，过去几天美联储观察上显示的降息概率一直维持在85%以上；
12月19号日本央行大概率会加息，日本央行行长已经提前暗示可能会加息。
两个方向相反的利率决议拉扯下，加密市场的未来走向似乎有些扑朔迷离。理论上美联储降息将会增加市场流动性，有助于市场上涨，日本加息将会导致日元套利交易退出，市场抛压增加。
但是考虑到目前所处的熊市背景，往往好的不灵坏的灵，所以日元加息的影响大概率会大于美元降息的影响，一旦日元加息尘埃落定，币市继续下跌的概率会比较大。
12月10号美联储的利率决议大概率会降息，过去几天美联储观察上显示的降息概率一直维持在85%以上；
12月19号日本央行大概率会加息，日本央行行长已经提前暗示可能会加息。
两个方向相反的利率决议拉扯下，加密市场的未来走向似乎有些扑朔迷离。理论上美联储降息将会增加市场流动性，有助于市场上涨，日本加息将会导致日元套利交易退出，市场抛压增加。
但是考虑到目前所处的熊市背景，往往好的不灵坏的灵，所以日元加息的影响大概率会大于美元降息的影响，一旦日元加息尘埃落定，币市继续下跌的概率会比较大。
Translate
来看一下灰度基金最近的动作
这一轮牛市灰度持仓的山寨币基本都拉盘了，并且拉盘幅度还不小，从24年上半年的BTC ETH SOL BCH LPT 这些提前拉盘的主流币和AI币，再到24年下半年的XRP XLM LTC ，然后就是上个月炒作的隐私币ZEN ZEC ，最后就是这几天一直上涨的BAT，你可以说灰度菜，但是他持仓的币这一轮牛市跑赢99%的机构和散户。
目前灰度持仓的只有$ETC $MANA $FIL 没拉盘了，并且最近一段时间灰度都在加仓FIL，我目前持有一些ETC，毕竟灰度都还持有价值1.65亿美元的ETC，再加上ETC本来就是末日战车，都是在每一轮牛市结束的时候拉盘，耐心拿着看看后面有没有惊喜。#加密市场观察
这一轮牛市灰度持仓的山寨币基本都拉盘了，并且拉盘幅度还不小，从24年上半年的BTC ETH SOL BCH LPT 这些提前拉盘的主流币和AI币，再到24年下半年的XRP XLM LTC ，然后就是上个月炒作的隐私币ZEN ZEC ，最后就是这几天一直上涨的BAT，你可以说灰度菜，但是他持仓的币这一轮牛市跑赢99%的机构和散户。
目前灰度持仓的只有$ETC $MANA $FIL 没拉盘了，并且最近一段时间灰度都在加仓FIL，我目前持有一些ETC，毕竟灰度都还持有价值1.65亿美元的ETC，再加上ETC本来就是末日战车，都是在每一轮牛市结束的时候拉盘，耐心拿着看看后面有没有惊喜。#加密市场观察
See original
December 5 Market Analysis: Reaching the Top? Bitcoin, Ethereum, BNB, ZEC, SOL, ASTER, BAI, PIEVERSE On-chain Dog Strategies!
The cryptocurrency market has stagnated after rebounding, with BTC showing a small decline, while ETH, BNB, and SOL have deep pullbacks, where ETH and BNB rebounded accurately after hitting the second support level. Since there was a needle pullback at night, the core focus today is on the strength of the rebound, and the key is whether it can stabilize above the levels I provided.
BTC
Today, the short-term pressure level for Bitcoin is around 93600. If it stabilizes at this position, it may further attempt to reach the 94600-94800 area. If the price reaches the above range, consideration can be given to trying short positions in batches. There is also pressure near 95500 above, but it is expected to be difficult to reach; currently, the focus should be on the first two pressure levels. If there is a pullback below, the initial target can look towards around 89000.
BTC
Today, the short-term pressure level for Bitcoin is around 93600. If it stabilizes at this position, it may further attempt to reach the 94600-94800 area. If the price reaches the above range, consideration can be given to trying short positions in batches. There is also pressure near 95500 above, but it is expected to be difficult to reach; currently, the focus should be on the first two pressure levels. If there is a pullback below, the initial target can look towards around 89000.
See original
$AVAX
The 15-minute K-line of avax looks like a flat ECG, a typical high-control market trend! It was mentioned before that it has low volatility sideways on the 4-hour chart, occasionally showing false breaks and quickly recovering, then slowly pushing up again.
Now with the advantages of the ETF, I am still holding it, waiting for the ETF benefits to materialize, and if it can perform like LINK recently, I will decisively exit.
The 15-minute K-line of avax looks like a flat ECG, a typical high-control market trend! It was mentioned before that it has low volatility sideways on the 4-hour chart, occasionally showing false breaks and quickly recovering, then slowly pushing up again.
Now with the advantages of the ETF, I am still holding it, waiting for the ETF benefits to materialize, and if it can perform like LINK recently, I will decisively exit.
See original
December 4th Market Analysis: Price Limit Surge! Bitcoin, Ethereum, BNB, ZEC, SUI, WM, VOXEL On-chain Dog Strategies!
The crypto market continues to warm up, BTC has returned to 93000, close to the 30-day moving average of 94000, and ETH has also recovered to 3000, while UNI has returned to 6 dollars. The only one that has dropped is USDT, which has fallen below 7. If a double bottom is successfully formed this time, there will definitely be a huge wave of market action.
BTC
From the 4-hour chart, Bitcoin has formed a W bottom pattern, but the price has not been able to break through the neckline position, and the rebound has been repeatedly suppressed by the Vegas channel, indicating that although there is support, there is a lack of upward momentum, and a trend reversal has not formed. Meanwhile, the 1-hour chart shows a MACD divergence, with the price reaching new highs but the momentum bars significantly weakening, and multiple death crosses forming, which is a clear short-term topping signal that requires vigilance.
BTC
From the 4-hour chart, Bitcoin has formed a W bottom pattern, but the price has not been able to break through the neckline position, and the rebound has been repeatedly suppressed by the Vegas channel, indicating that although there is support, there is a lack of upward momentum, and a trend reversal has not formed. Meanwhile, the 1-hour chart shows a MACD divergence, with the price reaching new highs but the momentum bars significantly weakening, and multiple death crosses forming, which is a clear short-term topping signal that requires vigilance.
See original
I feel that the recent circle is very uninteresting, and the market keeps going in circles. Every rise fills retail investors with expectations, but the big players always seem to crash the market when a bull market appears to start. This way of playing has already caused most people, including myself, to develop a conditioned reflex: 'When it rises to a certain level, I think about running away.' It has indeed been like this for the past few months; if you don't run, you get trapped.
So how should we respond?
I believe that to grasp the ups and downs of the market, while holding physical assets and wanting to leverage, whether entering or exiting, everything must be done under controllable positions, and a stop-loss position should be added for heavy positions.
Following this line of thought: since the big players have successfully made the market develop a 'bear market mentality', and everyone has become cautious, is there a possibility of a complete 'short squeeze bull market' in the future that breaks this mentality?
From the market structure, the trend is led by altcoins, with mainstream coins following. From a technical perspective, price fluctuations are significant, and there are violent oscillations at key resistance levels, indicating that the bullish power is not resolute, and the market consensus is weak. It is expected to still be difficult tonight, friends doing ultra-short trades remember to fasten your 'seatbelt'. #比特币波动性
So how should we respond?
I believe that to grasp the ups and downs of the market, while holding physical assets and wanting to leverage, whether entering or exiting, everything must be done under controllable positions, and a stop-loss position should be added for heavy positions.
Following this line of thought: since the big players have successfully made the market develop a 'bear market mentality', and everyone has become cautious, is there a possibility of a complete 'short squeeze bull market' in the future that breaks this mentality?
From the market structure, the trend is led by altcoins, with mainstream coins following. From a technical perspective, price fluctuations are significant, and there are violent oscillations at key resistance levels, indicating that the bullish power is not resolute, and the market consensus is weak. It is expected to still be difficult tonight, friends doing ultra-short trades remember to fasten your 'seatbelt'. #比特币波动性
See original
12/4 Market Focus
1⃣ BTC, ETH, SOL surge. Last night, signs of a weakening U.S. job market fueled investors' optimism about interest rate cuts, with U.S. stocks slightly up and cryptocurrency concept stocks soaring.
2⃣ The Ethereum mainnet successfully activated the Fusaka upgrade, enhancing mainnet capabilities and reducing L2 fees by 40% to 60%. ETH strongly broke through 320.
3⃣ The Trump administration is considering an executive order on robots next year, boosting U.S. robotic stocks, with SAPIEN soaring 71%. Sustainability is in question.
4⃣ After funding FUD on USDT, it benefits USDC. The latter's market share increased from 24.5% to 25%. CRCL rose 11.4% last night.
5⃣ After a sharp decline, ZEC has stabilized temporarily, currently quoted at 350. Let's see if it can hold above EMA100 (321).
1⃣ BTC, ETH, SOL surge. Last night, signs of a weakening U.S. job market fueled investors' optimism about interest rate cuts, with U.S. stocks slightly up and cryptocurrency concept stocks soaring.
2⃣ The Ethereum mainnet successfully activated the Fusaka upgrade, enhancing mainnet capabilities and reducing L2 fees by 40% to 60%. ETH strongly broke through 320.
3⃣ The Trump administration is considering an executive order on robots next year, boosting U.S. robotic stocks, with SAPIEN soaring 71%. Sustainability is in question.
4⃣ After funding FUD on USDT, it benefits USDC. The latter's market share increased from 24.5% to 25%. CRCL rose 11.4% last night.
5⃣ After a sharp decline, ZEC has stabilized temporarily, currently quoted at 350. Let's see if it can hold above EMA100 (321).
See original
Among the many meme coins on BSC, #VulgarPenguin shows great potential.
Its development path is similar to that of top MEME coins like Pepe and Shib in their early stages: without the strong backing of 'two saints', it completely relies on Web2 memes and natural community growth, with strong community consensus.
Its price trend is highly resilient, quickly reaching new highs after every significant pullback, and reacts the fastest when the market starts to move, making it likely to become the first truly breakout Chinese community MEME coin.
The current market value of over 14 million is far from its limit, but is constrained by the overall market environment. Once the market warms up, it could very well become one of the most elastic and outstanding assets on BSC, worth paying attention to when it's at a low position. #加密市场回调
Its development path is similar to that of top MEME coins like Pepe and Shib in their early stages: without the strong backing of 'two saints', it completely relies on Web2 memes and natural community growth, with strong community consensus.
Its price trend is highly resilient, quickly reaching new highs after every significant pullback, and reacts the fastest when the market starts to move, making it likely to become the first truly breakout Chinese community MEME coin.
The current market value of over 14 million is far from its limit, but is constrained by the overall market environment. Once the market warms up, it could very well become one of the most elastic and outstanding assets on BSC, worth paying attention to when it's at a low position. #加密市场回调
See original
The lowest-level 'chives' are those who look at news every day, with emotions and cognition guided by the news. When talking about the market, they sound just like economists, rambling on and on, but ultimately, they can't make any money.
Veteran 'chives' look at indicators, but after analyzing the indicators, they realize there is a deceptive aspect. Often, as soon as you enter the market, the show is over, and you're misled by various false breakouts.
Smart money looks at the traces of major players. BTC, gold, and foreign exchange are traded 24 hours a day, and the short- to medium-term fluctuations are dominated by major institutions.
Veteran 'chives' look at indicators, but after analyzing the indicators, they realize there is a deceptive aspect. Often, as soon as you enter the market, the show is over, and you're misled by various false breakouts.
Smart money looks at the traces of major players. BTC, gold, and foreign exchange are traded 24 hours a day, and the short- to medium-term fluctuations are dominated by major institutions.
See original
$ASTER
This is a ghost chain supported by subsidies and fake transactions, and it does not deserve such a high market value. Of course, many retail investors holding this coin might criticize me, but it doesn't matter, I will continue to be bearish.
Speaking of which, people who are stuck with ZEC at a high position might still have a chance to break even in 2028, but those who are stuck with ASTER at a high position might not be so lucky.
This is a ghost chain supported by subsidies and fake transactions, and it does not deserve such a high market value. Of course, many retail investors holding this coin might criticize me, but it doesn't matter, I will continue to be bearish.
Speaking of which, people who are stuck with ZEC at a high position might still have a chance to break even in 2028, but those who are stuck with ASTER at a high position might not be so lucky.
See original
Currently, the market is weakly adjusting on a downward trajectory. Whether it can strengthen in the future remains to be observed. Regarding TOM Lee's call for a new high by the end of the year and the view that ETH will reach 9000 in January next year, it's best for everyone to just take a look and not to fantasize;
Currently, the probability of Bitcoin falling below 80,000 USD in December on Polymarket has risen to 55%, while the probability of falling below 70,000 USD is temporarily reported at 15%. Additionally, the probability of breaking through 100,000 USD is temporarily reported at 28%;
Bitcoin's 4-hour level has support around 84,000, but this support is too weak, and there are currently no signs of stabilization in the short term. Next, we will see if it can return to 90,000 USD in the short term. If the daily level stabilizes above 90,000 USD, it would mean that a short-term rebound may be coming; otherwise, it’s unlikely. Therefore, at this stage, maintaining learning or lying flat is the best choice; not trading means making money.
Currently, the probability of Bitcoin falling below 80,000 USD in December on Polymarket has risen to 55%, while the probability of falling below 70,000 USD is temporarily reported at 15%. Additionally, the probability of breaking through 100,000 USD is temporarily reported at 28%;
Bitcoin's 4-hour level has support around 84,000, but this support is too weak, and there are currently no signs of stabilization in the short term. Next, we will see if it can return to 90,000 USD in the short term. If the daily level stabilizes above 90,000 USD, it would mean that a short-term rebound may be coming; otherwise, it’s unlikely. Therefore, at this stage, maintaining learning or lying flat is the best choice; not trading means making money.
See original
Let's review the hot coins again today
New coins
$tcg
Narrative: The Collector Group @collectdotrip
Official streaming token
Price: Highest 1.3M, Current 620K
$bear
Highest 2.4M, Current 1.3M, in decline
Newly listed coins
$马到成功
Reached a new high of 3.6M, Current 2.8M
$阿米嘎蒂朵
Reached a new high of 1.4M, Current 1M
$kabuto
Reached a new high of 5.6M, Current 4.5M
$moncock
Reached a new high of 3.1M, Current 2.2M
Old coins
$griffain
Increased from 11.22 lowest 11.8M to highest 24.7M, Current 22.3M
New coins
$tcg
Narrative: The Collector Group @collectdotrip
Official streaming token
Price: Highest 1.3M, Current 620K
$bear
Highest 2.4M, Current 1.3M, in decline
Newly listed coins
$马到成功
Reached a new high of 3.6M, Current 2.8M
$阿米嘎蒂朵
Reached a new high of 1.4M, Current 1M
$kabuto
Reached a new high of 5.6M, Current 4.5M
$moncock
Reached a new high of 3.1M, Current 2.2M
Old coins
$griffain
Increased from 11.22 lowest 11.8M to highest 24.7M, Current 22.3M
See original
The way for VCs to monetize through raising FDV in the future won't work anymore～
After wave after wave of harvesting, retail investors are either out of the game or simply not buying～
In the future, regardless of your background or how impressive your VC is, no one will engage with high FDV projects～
In the past, everyone loved to dream, but now that the dream is over, everyone will be more pragmatic in the future, especially retail investors～
Without data and real users, all projects are garbage. The market used to recognize fat protocols, but in the future, the market will only recognize fat applications～#加密市场回调
After wave after wave of harvesting, retail investors are either out of the game or simply not buying～
In the future, regardless of your background or how impressive your VC is, no one will engage with high FDV projects～
In the past, everyone loved to dream, but now that the dream is over, everyone will be more pragmatic in the future, especially retail investors～
Without data and real users, all projects are garbage. The market used to recognize fat protocols, but in the future, the market will only recognize fat applications～#加密市场回调
See original
The gap between centralized and decentralized exchanges is narrowing at an unprecedented speed.
The trading volume ratio of DEX derivatives skyrocketed from 2.1% on January 2, 2023, to 11.7% on November 11, 2025, setting a new historical high.
#Hyperliquid has become a major driving force, with trading volume reaching $2.74 trillion in 2025. High-performance on-chain engines are now comparable to traditional exchanges.
The trend continues to strengthen, and it is expected that by 2026, DEX will account for 15%-20% of the global derivatives trading volume. #DeFi
The trading volume ratio of DEX derivatives skyrocketed from 2.1% on January 2, 2023, to 11.7% on November 11, 2025, setting a new historical high.
#Hyperliquid has become a major driving force, with trading volume reaching $2.74 trillion in 2025. High-performance on-chain engines are now comparable to traditional exchanges.
The trend continues to strengthen, and it is expected that by 2026, DEX will account for 15%-20% of the global derivatives trading volume. #DeFi
See original
December 1 Market Analysis: A drop of over 6000 points! A big plunge, where is the bottom? Bitcoin, Ethereum, altcoins, on-chain dog strategies!
The new monthly and weekly lines have closed, and the opening is a warning shot! Has everyone noticed that when the market is bad, the screen is full of bad news, and good news seems to have collectively disappeared. When the market rises, there is only good news, and bad news hides away...
Today’s sharp decline has several reasons:
1. President Chuan stated that Powell will resign, causing panic in the financial markets, and everyone is worried he will act recklessly. (He has decided on the nominee for the Federal Reserve Chair, which will be announced soon. According to Polymarket data, Hassett's election probability is 71%).
2. CryptoHayes recently heavily criticized Tether (FUD), even tearing into Monero, but Tether countered the “black box” allegations: the group's total assets are $215 billion, with stablecoin liabilities of approximately $184.5 billion.
Today’s sharp decline has several reasons:
1. President Chuan stated that Powell will resign, causing panic in the financial markets, and everyone is worried he will act recklessly. (He has decided on the nominee for the Federal Reserve Chair, which will be announced soon. According to Polymarket data, Hassett's election probability is 71%).
2. CryptoHayes recently heavily criticized Tether (FUD), even tearing into Monero, but Tether countered the “black box” allegations: the group's total assets are $215 billion, with stablecoin liabilities of approximately $184.5 billion.
See original
As an old player, this market cycle is completely different from the past: in the past, altcoins were essential for everyone to scramble to buy the dip, but now they are ignored; projects that were once in the top hundred by market cap had people willing to invest, but now no one dares to act lightly. The more critical change is in market confidence; in the last cycle, no matter how badly BTC fell, dip buyers were optimistic, while this time, many old OGs have even cleared out their long-held BTC and ETH.
The deeper reason behind this may be the decline in the attraction of the crypto space itself; in the past, it represented tremendous innovation, but now, AI seems to be the one that can define the next civilization.
The deeper reason behind this may be the decline in the attraction of the crypto space itself; in the past, it represented tremendous innovation, but now, AI seems to be the one that can define the next civilization.
See original
B friends, it's definitely possible to buy at the bottom, but not right now. Don't rush to disturb me about specific points; I will definitely provide an analysis for everyone at noon, as is the rule every day.
This time, I hope everyone can understand better: in the cryptocurrency world, it's not about who has the biggest position or dares to go all in, but rather who can judge the market correctly and pinpoint the right levels.
Winning ten trades in a sideways market is not as good as losing one trade in a trending market, so market judgment is definitely a very important matter.
Also, try to keep a good mindset, have a long-term perspective, and be content! Earning more or less is still earning; hundreds of U may be someone else's month's salary. The most feared thing is being insatiable, and in the end, losing everything!
This time, I hope everyone can understand better: in the cryptocurrency world, it's not about who has the biggest position or dares to go all in, but rather who can judge the market correctly and pinpoint the right levels.
Winning ten trades in a sideways market is not as good as losing one trade in a trending market, so market judgment is definitely a very important matter.
Also, try to keep a good mindset, have a long-term perspective, and be content! Earning more or less is still earning; hundreds of U may be someone else's month's salary. The most feared thing is being insatiable, and in the end, losing everything!
Login to explore more contents