Amir阿米尔

Behind the better-than-expected U.S. non-farm payrolls in November: the resilience and hidden worries of the labor market
On December 16 local time, the U.S. Labor Department released the non-farm data for November, which attracted widespread attention from the market. The new employment of 64,000 far exceeded the market expectation of 50,000, seemingly demonstrating the resilience of the labor market, but it conceals multiple structural contradictions. This data broke the market's previous concerns about a rapid cooling of employment and added new uncertainties to the direction of Federal Reserve policy.
From the data details, the better-than-expected non-farm payrolls in November have a special background. In October, the new employment significantly decreased by 105,000, mainly due to the expiration of the government department's DOGE buyout plan and a one-time impact from the concentrated resignation of federal employees. However, in November, private sector new employment rebounded to 69,000, with the healthcare industry contributing 64,000 new positions. The construction industry also helped turn around employment in the goods sector from negative to positive, becoming a major supporting force. However, it is worth noting that the data for August and September was revised down by a total of 33,000, and the three-month moving average still shows a downward trend, indicating doubts about the sustainability of employment growth.