陈嘉冠A

BTC has a small CME gap this weekend.
As usual, it's worth paying attention to, but don't get too fixated.

The current plate is accumulating strength to break upward in 4 hours
It has now reached the first resistance near 92k and is oscillating
Stabilization and upward break look at the resistance of 94k
If it fails to break through and is pressed back, then look at the support near 89k below
(Attempt to operate on the right side) ​​​

The Coinbase premium subtly tells us a signal
When the histogram is red, BTC is cheaper on Coinbase > the US is selling/there is no real spot buying.
When the histogram is green, BTC trading price is higher → US buyers start to enter.
The premium is currently hovering around 0%:
There is no panic, but also no complete FOMO.
If the next push towards $97-100K turns the premium strong green, I would consider the breakout to be real.
If it turns deep red again, each rebound is just a withdrawal of liquidity.

Don't rush to shout 'altcoin season' yet! This chart reveals the truth

Yellow = BTC price, Green = total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies, Thin line = market capitalization of top 10/50/100 altcoins
The core of this round of increase is BTC dominance — Green basically follows Yellow, with only a brief window for altcoins to have a pulse rally, afterwards, small-cap coins drop even harder (classic bull market hedge: funds flow back to BTC + a few strong coins).

True altcoin season requires three signals:

1. BTC cooling off and consolidating
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2. Total market capitalization breaks previous high + forms higher low
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3. The lines of top 50/100 altcoins curve upwards (funds rotating downwards)

Before this, there are only localized narrative opportunities; most altcoins will either fluctuate or decline relative to BTC — this is not the 'all-coin surge' of 2021, still dominated by BTC, and only selected altcoins have opportunities to thrive～

The current 1-hour level of the market style is still in fluctuation
Currently at the resistance level of 91.2-91.7 (potential short entry point)
If it cannot break through, it will still drop to 89K ​​​

The market is still the same.
In the past month, dozens of coins have risen by +20-30%.
At the same time, most coins are in an endless decline, troubled by investors and teams unlocking, deeply trapped holders, and overall weak momentum and sentiment.
This trend runs through the entire cycle, and I feel it will never stop.
Most coins will eventually go to zero.
Some coins will perform well for a while, and then they too will go to zero.
Only a few coins will survive and continue to perform well in the next cycle.
This is the law of the market, and it is the way it will continue to develop.
If you are not willing to rotate and stay flexible in this market, then just hold onto BTC.
Otherwise, in the long run, you are just laying the groundwork for underperformance.

The last few weeks of BTC at the end of the year usually do not have too many interesting price fluctuations.
Except for 2013, 2017, and 2020, overall it has been relatively flat.
Interestingly, the extra day in a leap year usually brings decent returns, which I had never noticed before.
Overall, I don't expect any significant fluctuations to occur until the new year begins.
Typically, the market is quite volatile at the end of the year and the beginning of the year.
Especially during the Christmas period, liquidity and trading volume are generally very low.

Global liquidity has been rising for the past two weeks.
Coincidentally (though not really), we have seen BTC find its local bottom at the same time liquidity began to rise.
This is a phenomenon we often observe.
I believe that as long as global liquidity continues to expand, BTC will eventually join this frenzy.

The daily level K-line chart comparison ultimately failed to directly break through and fell back to around 88000.
Currently, it is fluctuating around 90,000.
Next week, there is basically no suspense about the US dollar's interest rate cut of 25, and similarly, the probability of a yen interest rate hike next week is also high. With one cut and one increase, the arbitrage returns will obviously decrease.
This will force investors to sell US stocks to buy back yen for debt repayment, with technology and growth stocks favored by carry trade funds in the US stock market being the first to be impacted.
The US dollar's interest rate hike is currently the biggest uncertainty, and once it is implemented, opportunities for a temporary low point will arise. This month is very likely to continue maintaining a bottom range of fluctuations.

From a liquidity perspective, the key levels to watch next week are 84k and 94K.
The price is currently between these two levels, as well as the range formed between these levels this week.
If it breaks above 94k, it may stand in the 100K area.
If it falls below 84K, it may retest the local low, which looks rather pessimistic.
Currently, it is just a range.

BTC has recently experienced the largest pullback of this cycle.
As for whether this is just another correction in a larger upward trend, it is still uncertain.
Technically, the 4-year cycle remains quite accurate in terms of time.
However, if we look at the price, we might already consider the 4-year cycle to be broken, as this year's performance has been a decline, whereas it should typically be the year of significant increases in the final year of the cycle.
2026 will be very interesting.
I don't think things will be that simple.
I believe it is more likely that we will see the small fluctuations of slight rises and falls that we have observed in recent months.

ETH is still in an important area.
But it seems that ETH has made a direction in the short term
with this higher low and strong rebound.
For Dodo, it is very important to maintain the green area next
If this rebound continues, the upward target is the 3.3K area.

The monthly candle high for BTC has been swept away.
The speed is really fast.
As mentioned before, whenever a new month moves directly up or down without leaving any wicks or anything else, these levels are usually broken.
This is a very quick and clean example.

BTC cleared a lot of liquidity below during the decline on Monday.
If it breaks below the 85K area again, there is a large amount of liquidity to note at 83K.
Above, the $93K level, which is above the weekend high, is something to pay attention to.
From what we saw after the new moon opened with a rapid decline, there is a large gap/inefficient area on the way there.

BTC was rejected from the previous support and resistance zones.
This is definitely not what the army brothers want to see.
After experiencing a nice +15% rebound, it lost momentum again a week later.
That said, it is now the beginning of the week/month, and we often see new monthly candles bring about significant volatility.
These usually are not the strongest highs/lows set at the beginning of a new moon. So in the coming days, the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement is worth paying attention to.

BTC has been consolidating within this relatively narrow range of 91.3k-92.4k.
After the futures market reopened today, it broke the high and reached 93k, but has now returned to the 91k range.
If it drops below, I believe 88k-89k is worth noting, or if it can maintain above 91K, it may attempt to break 93K again.
In the short term, the market environment around Thanksgiving is quite volatile, and weekends during this period usually see low trading volume and liquidity. ​​​

Have you been paying attention to these positions?
The second one is moving faster, the first one continues to keep an eye out. ​​​

Bitcoin fell by 16.8% in November.
But did you know about the reversal plot?
Historical data shows that the average increase in December is +4.75%.
First pain, then the Christmas market?
So what will happen?
Will it be a Christmas rally or a Christmas crash? ​​​

BNB focuses on the 888 support level; if it does not break the horizontal bottom, a small level continuation rise is expected. The upper pressure is seen at 905, and if not broken, a pullback is likely; after breaking through, look at the pressure range of 915-926-939.
If it breaks below 888, a 4-hour level correction will begin, and the support below is noted at 877-863-852.

SOL previously weakened and rebounded after testing the 138 support; today focuses on the 141 pressure level. If it cannot stabilize, the rebound will lack strength, and further declines will look at the 138 support, with a drop below leading to 135-131-128.
If it stabilizes at 141 and holds for 1-2 hours, a rebound can be initiated, with upper pressure successively at 142-144-148.

Pay attention to the BTC price at 90620 today. As long as it does not break below the bottom of the consolidation zone, the smaller level will still go up. The upper level will look at the top of the consolidation zone at 91850. If it cannot break, the smaller level will still pull back. If it breaks above the top of the consolidation zone, pay attention to the pressure levels around 93130-95000-96580!
If it breaks below the bottom of the consolidation zone today, then the 4-hour level will start to pull back. Pay attention to the support levels around 88880-87320-85650!
For ETH, pay attention to the price at 3020 today. Only if it stabilizes above this level will the smaller level rebound upwards. Pay attention to the pressure levels around 3043-3070-3113!
If it cannot stay above 3020 today and closes below, then the 4-hour level will start to pull back. Pay attention to the support levels around 2985-2930-2887!