陈嘉冠A

Really not pretending anymore
Just paint the door when it goes up a bit
Go up as much as it goes down
Just this back and forth
Within one hour within one hour
Walk away with over 60 million hy positions ​​​

Sexy拉磐 is here.
Currently, all short liquidity below 90000 has been wiped out. There are a total of 1.2 sell orders hanging between 90000-90500. I don't know if it can be absorbed; this is a wall.

Wednesday Responds📈
I can tell you all now

The weekly trend of BTC shows that the current trend is indeed in a weak phase, but weakness does not mean there are no opportunities!
Referring to previous cycles, after a trend market, there will be a phase-bottom that appears, approximately after three months, followed by a nice rebound market.
This rebound market generally lasts for about 2 months, which means at least a small market will occur, and even in a bear market, it cannot keep falling forever.
So, don't panic, the phase-bottom may have already arrived, around 80,000 is about right, and the current fluctuations are all preparing for a big rebound later on.
As for how to proceed after the rebound, it can only depend on the overall economic cycle!
Pay special attention to the time node around Christmas; once a cost-effective bottom appears, go all in decisively for at least a larger rebound market!

The BTCCME futures open interest is currently about half of the peak in 2025.
Since the liquidation on October 10 and the subsequent price movements, the market has significantly reduced leverage and open interest in dollar terms.
The most important thing now is for spot and ETFs to ultimately find a suitable balance point, allowing the market to regain its footing. The market is still far from overheating at least in the short term. So even if we see some relief at some point in the first quarter, there is still a lot of room in this regard.

There is an interesting thing, BTC has fallen more than 30% three times in this cycle. The first two times were excellent buying opportunities. ​​​

Basically, all the upward performance of BTC this year comes from Wednesday.
This is a rather crazy statistic, with significant differences between different dates.
Thursday and Friday are the days with the most decline.
And on average, other days are basically flat. ​​​

LTH sell pressure has recently increased, putting certain pressure on BTC. Although the distribution scale is still lower than in November, it has exceeded the two stage bottom periods of August 24 and April 25.

At the same time, the FBS curve continues to slowly recover, indicating that the demand from new investors is gradually returning. The rebound of FBS will not immediately trigger a V-shaped price reversal; during this period, BTC usually maintains volatility and may even experience a second bottom.

Considering the current situation where LTH increases selling pressure again after the price stabilizes, the overall trend is basically in line with expectations. As long as the FBS curve maintains an upward trend, there is no need to be overly pessimistic about the overall direction, but the process will be relatively bumpy.

A gap appeared when BTC opened, most of which has been quickly filled as usual.
Technically, there is still a tiny bit that hasn't been filled, but it can almost be ignored.
So there is nothing important to pay attention to regarding the gap this week.

Weekly

1. This week is overall weak: after a spike to 876, it closed below 883 EQ, but still within the oscillation range near EG. Currently, we are mainly observing the oscillation position; if the price oscillates below 883 most of the time, the priority is bearish. Watch for 8578 below. If it can rise above 883 and oscillate above it, then we will see if it can break through 906, then look at 925, followed by a test of 94-95.
2. This week is a news-intensive week:

- 12.16 US November Non-Farm Payroll
- 12.17 Federal Reserve officials' speeches
- 12.18 US November CPI
- 12.19 Japan's interest rate meeting

Historical data shows that since 2024, every rate hike in Japan has led to a BTC drop of over 20% (March -23%, July -26%, January 2025 -31%). If there is a rate hike next week, the downside risk still needs to be vigilant, and we may see around 78.

Hourly chart

1. After the spike to 876, there was a rebound, but H4 shows a clear bearish OB resistance; if rejected, the priority is to short, as this is the area with the highest shorting cost-effectiveness. Strictly control small stop losses. If it breaks through 906, it will continue to oscillate and reverse to the upper blank FVG, possibly seeing 925-93.
2. Currently, 895 is a key position: it must break through to test 9000; if rejected again, the market remains weak.

Overall: Oscillation is weak, news week requires caution, focus primarily on the performance of 883 and 895 before deciding on the direction.

BTC Order Book Liquidity Changes (±1%):
Big Red Bar → Support has been withdrawn → Price drops rapidly.
Currently, mainly small green bars, but the price is still weak, buyers are present, but the scale is still not enough.
Points of concern:
> Stable green bars + no new lows = Bottom is forming
> Another red bar flush = Risk of a rapid drop
Recovering and holding steady at $90-91K is the first real relief signal ​​​

BTC94k Iron top still
Needs to break through the 94K resistance level
To take a bigger step forward
Currently, higher lows are still being maintained
Losing this market structure is something that the market wants to avoid ​​​

BTC is hovering near its previous support and resistance zones (approximately 89-90K).
For the bulls, it is crucial to maintain this support going forward.
We have just experienced the largest pullback in this cycle, driven by significant spot selling and panic stemming from the end of the four-year cycle.
Currently, this price range seems to have some demand. We can continue to monitor these high time frame areas to observe the price reaction.
At present, the daily downtrend has clearly stalled, and the low to mid time frames are attempting to revert to a bullish market structure.
However, to fully confirm this, we need to see the price break through 94K.

BTC is consolidating around the 4-hour 200MA/EMA and the resistance level of approximately $94K, which has served as a high point in the range over the past few weeks.

This is a key breakthrough area for Bitcoin to reverse momentum and turn bullish in the short to medium term.

Since the launch of the ETF in the United States, BTC has not bottomed out in the first 10 days of the month for five months.
The market structure changed in November after the liquidation crash in October.
So far, BTC has bottomed out in the first 10 days of December.
It looks like the market structure is back.

At 2:30 AM, the market started to activate, clearing all the short liquidity from yesterday. Now the situation has reversed again, and all the liquidity has gathered back down.

931000 has a sell order of 52.63 million at 94800 and a sell order of 68.83 million at 6883.

A super sell wall has appeared again before 95k.

The price of BTC has risen again, and many people are criticizing me for being bullish.
I won't just go with the flow; I only respect the trend.
Currently, the trend is in a fluctuating upward movement, and as long as it doesn't break 876, the daily line is in an upward trend.
I mentioned last night that if it breaks 905, it can be bought; looking at 3-4 AM, it stabilized here and moved upward.
Now that the price has risen, keep an eye on the rejection at the 945-95 test, which could indicate a bearish trend.

ETH has been rejected by the daily 200MA/EMA and the level around $3350
Overall, ETH has shown relatively strong performance compared to other parts of the market
The price movement may not look good, but technically, it has still been in an upward trend since the low in November
So far, this upward trend has been very volatile
Continue to watch for those higher highs and higher lows
These are key for short-term/medium-term direction ​​​

Make a small pin downward to plunder after 895
The price has consolidated around 90,000 for an entire afternoon
You can see that the trading volume throughout the day is extremely sluggish
Everyone is still waiting to see the US stock market and its trends
Currently, both parties are engaged in a tug-of-war at the 90,000 position
For the seller, there are spot buying opportunities below 90,000
Currently, there is a wall of pending orders below, waiting to exhaust the air force's bullets
Once there is favorable news or strong buy orders hit, it can easily test 91 and 92
In terms of operation, break through and stabilize at 905
Consider trying long positions on the right side, target 92,000
Currently, there is no way to directly sell here, either break below 876 and return to around 90,000 to sell
Or rebound to around 92,500 and watch for selling opportunities

From a liquidity perspective, the main areas of concern are still 97k-98k
But the price has been rejected at 94k for several weeks in a row
Once it breaks 94k and stabilizes, I believe the next movement will be very rapid
Before that, it's better to be a bit patient and not let the various Bart movements within this range frustrate you ​​​