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Important updates for December 14th

7:00-12:00 Keywords: El Salvador, Trump, Walsh
1. El Salvador's Bitcoin holdings have surpassed 7,500 coins;
2. Trump stated that his U.S. investment plan has not yet fully taken effect;
3. On Polymarket, the probability of Walsh being nominated by Trump as the Federal Reserve Chair has risen to 38%;
4. Wu Jiezhang: believes that the development of stablecoins in Hong Kong will not have significant changes and will continue to move forward steadily;

Looking back from 2025, it's quite disappointing because it has returned to the prices of the beginning of the year.

However, looking from 2023-2025, it is still quite surprising. Why? Because 2023-2025 belongs to a tightening cycle, and under the circumstances where the Federal Reserve's numerous old officials frequently adopt hawkish stances, Bitcoin has still managed to rise nearly 8 times (15600～126000), which sufficiently demonstrates Bitcoin's strong resilience.

The Federal Reserve has strengthened its anti-inflation hawkish credibility through personnel stability, which will suppress breakthrough rises in the crypto market in the short term. In the medium term, unless inflation data shows continuous and significant declines, expectations for liquidity easing are difficult to realize. In terms of operations, investors are advised to reduce leverage and maintain caution during event-driven markets such as Bitcoin halving, prioritizing attention on underlying protocols with healthy cash flow and...

Powell's early morning speech: Crypto short-term surge and fall, long-term logic remains intact. In the short term, expectations are fulfilled + high interest rates continue, with BTC 90,000 being a key support level. Funds continue to concentrate on core assets, and high-leverage varieties should be avoided; don't panic in the long term: the Fed's balance sheet expansion + the weakening dollar trend remains unchanged, spot ETF 54.7 billion + net inflow stabilizing, Bitcoin's volatility halved, and the logic of the super cycle under institutional trends is still present. #Crypto #Bitcoin

#Bitcoin The US M2 money supply has rebounded to $22.3 trillion, with the fastest expansion rate since mid-2022, improving liquidity.

2. The acceleration of M2 growth typically benefits Bitcoin, altcoins, and other risk assets. Coupled with the Federal Reserve's expected interest rate cuts and UBS predicting monthly purchases of $40 billion in Treasury bonds (similar to quantitative easing) by early 2026, this will further boost liquidity.

Bitcoin stands at 93,000 again: rebound or trap?

1. Bitcoin rebounds back to 93,000, with strong selling pressure above, intense tug-of-war between bulls and bears
2. Expectations for Fed rate cuts rise, ETF net inflows, institutional buying supports market sentiment
3. Avoid going all-in during short-term volatility, reasonably control positions, participate in batches to avoid liquidation

As of December 4, 2025, the global cryptocurrency market capitalization is approximately $3.19 trillion, up 2.63% from the previous day. The 24-hour trading volume has slightly increased by 1.43%, indicating a rebound in market activity. Bitcoin (BTC) dominance remains at 58.5%, while Ethereum (ETH) accounts for 12.2%. The overall market has rebounded from the lows at the end of November but still faces macro uncertainties (such as Federal Reserve policy expectations). Market sentiment has shifted from 'extreme fear' in November to a neutral to optimistic outlook, mainly benefiting from the positive news of the ETH network upgrade and the return of ETF funds. The market experienced a significant correction in November (BTC dropped from a high of $126,000 to a low of $82,000, with an overall market capitalization decline of about 35%), but as December began, on December 3, the market surged by 7.4% to $3.24 trillion, followed by a slight correction on the 4th, although most assets still maintained positive returns. Analysts generally believe that December could become a month 'far exceeding November', but volatility will increase, with BTC potentially fluctuating in the range of $83,000 to $95,000.

Last night, Trump announced important information at three o'clock in the morning, mainly mentioning that the potential candidate for the Chair of the Federal Reserve is Kevin Hassett. This choice has already been decided.

He also mentioned that he gets along well with Musk.
Strategy raised $1.4 billion in reserves through stock sales, alleviating the selling pressure on Bitcoin.
The probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points next week is about 89%.
Currently, the market seems favorable and has already moved out of the shadow of the 13 central departments.

Last week, Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs finally turned positive. Although the volume is not large, it shows the possibility of a phased bottom, with Bitcoin's price rebounding from 80000 to 90000.

The SEC's approval of the spot Bitcoin ETF is a powerful driver of this bull market. US stock investors can finally invest in Bitcoin with zero barriers through traditional stock accounts, just like trading stocks, without having to learn about crypto, and without facing the complexities of lost private keys, hacking, or cold wallet operations.

Giants led by BlackRock have quickly absorbed hundreds of billions of dollars by issuing ETFs, accumulating more than 5% of the total Bitcoin supply. This massive institutional capital has not only significantly pushed up Bitcoin's price but also elevated Bitcoin from a fringe asset to "digital gold" recognized by Wall Street.

The emergence of ETFs has opened up a compliant channel for allocating Bitcoin, attracting pension funds and hedge funds. Bitcoin is transitioning into a mature asset in the global capital markets, and the rules of the game have fundamentally changed.

Under the new rules, what retail investors can do is to follow. If the price remains unattractive while ETF funds flow beautifully, it may indicate that we have reached the bottom.

Why does the #Yen interest rate hike lead to declines in Bitcoin and Ethereum?

The last month of 2025 started with a flash crash, as the yen interest rate hike refers to the Bank of Japan raising the benchmark interest rate. Last year, the Bank of Japan also raised interest rates once, and this scenario has occurred multiple times, with the main reasons being:

"Yen carry trading," where Japan has maintained ultra-low interest rates, even negative rates (determined by Japan's economic situation). Investors and institutions borrow yen at low costs in large amounts, then convert it into dollars to invest in U.S. stocks, bonds, tech stocks, and virtual currencies. Wherever there is profit, money flows there, after all, the cost of borrowing is low, and profits can be made in any way.

"Yen carry trading" provides cheap liquidity for global risk assets, and a yen interest rate hike will increase borrowing costs, raising the cost of arbitrage. These funds need to be repaid in yen, so the first assets sold will be cryptocurrencies. Given that cryptocurrencies are riskier and have more inflated valuations compared to U.S. stocks, high-yield bonds, gold, and commodities, institutions will convert the assets sold into dollars to repay yen, leading to a natural crash in virtual currencies like Bitcoin.

Which cryptocurrencies are most affected by the yen interest rate hike? Primarily Bitcoin and Ethereum, because they have good liquidity and can be quickly cashed out; they also have the most arbitrage positions. The worst affected are altcoins, which have poor liquidity, institutions are unwilling to hold them, and when liquidity exits, the leverage squeeze results in the most severe declines.

This bull market has lost the seasonal altcoin rally; the bull market has ended and the beginning of a bear market is evident. Hold onto your USDT, focus on learning rather than trading, and quietly wait for opportunities in the bear market, as many people have been cut during the bull market, while there may be some opportunities in the bear market.

Analysis: The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut expectations are difficult to counter the weak funding environment and tightening policies in Japan. Matrixport stated that Bitcoin's price is once again hindered at the key resistance level of $92,000, with upward momentum slowing. Although the market anticipates that the Federal Reserve may initiate interest rate cuts next week, related ETFs have only seen slight net inflows, and the overall funding environment remains weak, making it difficult to support the judgment of a significant return of institutional funds. At the same time, signals of tightening in Japan's monetary policy have intensified market anxiety, with the 2-year Japanese government bond yield breaking above 1% for the first time since 2008. Investors are beginning to reassess the consistency of major global central banks in their easing pace. Against this backdrop, even if the Federal Reserve releases dovish signals, it is challenging to offset the tightening expectations from other economies, and the overall policy direction remains tight, providing a rationale for institutional investors to reduce their exposure to Bitcoin.

Christmas market remains uncertain, Bitcoin tests support at $83,200, Ethereum closely watches the $2,600 level. The macroeconomic environment is complex, and risk assets are under pressure. Global monetary policies are diverging, with the market generally expecting the Federal Reserve to cut rates in December, while the Bank of Japan has issued clear signals for rate hikes, creating a policy contrast. Chinese regulatory authorities have reiterated a strict crackdown on virtual currencies and have included stablecoins in the risk regulatory scope. The traditional 'Christmas market' may be lacking: influenced by the disruptive impact of AI and ongoing market volatility, Wall Street strategists believe the seasonal increase in U.S. stocks may be broken this year. The cryptocurrency market is experiencing heightened panic, with Bitcoin recording its worst monthly performance in six years; Bitcoin's performance is weak: the closing price in November was $90,360, with a monthly decline of 17.55%, marking the worst November performance since 2018. The start of December continues to decline, once falling below $86,000, triggering large-scale leveraged liquidations. Analyst opinions are divided: some analysts are bearish, predicting prices could drop to the $40,000-$70,000 range; others believe the current decline is a healthy liquidity cleanup, with key short-term support at $83,200-$84,000. Ethereum is oscillating in a key range: prices fluctuate between $2,600 and $3,000. If it falls below the $2,600 support, it may further drop to the low of $2,000. The market also faces selling pressure from the large unlocking of staked ETH. Yearn Finance suffered an attack with losses of about $9 million; the SAHARA token halved in price due to market maker issues; Binance has listed several tokens under monitoring labels, causing their prices to plummet. Today's focus: several tokens (such as SUI, SANTOS, ENA) will experience significant unlocking, which may exert selling pressure on the market. Among the top 100 cryptocurrencies by market capitalization, Zcash, Ethena, and others saw significant intraday declines.

It depends on macro factors. The Federal Reserve's return to balance sheet expansion after 26 years is likely, and if liquidity is abundant, it is also possible for Bitcoin to challenge 150,000 again. However, this does not mean I will buy in now, as I need to see concrete actions of liquidity easing, even if I might miss out on the potential for lower prices. To elaborate on why expansion is likely: 1. Sino-U.S. relations are tending to ease, and everyone is increasingly aware that actual conflict between the two countries is difficult; 2. The high interest rate environment in the U.S. is unsustainable. With the development of AI, the unemployment issue is becoming more severe, and the labor market can no longer bear higher interest rates; the financial market also cannot sustain high interest rates, and by 2026, a large amount of Private Credit will face concentrated renewal pressure.

It depends on the macro situation. The Federal Reserve's return to balance sheet expansion after 26 years is likely, and if liquidity is abundant, it's also possible for Bitcoin to hit 150,000 again. However, this does not mean I will buy in now, as I need to see concrete actions of liquidity easing, even if it means I might miss out on potentially lower prices.

Let me elaborate on why expansion is highly likely:
1. The relationship between China and the U.S. is becoming more relaxed, and everyone is increasingly realizing that it is difficult for the two countries to have actual conflicts;
2. The high interest rate environment in the U.S. is unsustainable. With the development of AI, unemployment issues are becoming more serious, and the labor market can no longer bear higher interest rates; the financial market also cannot sustain high rates. By 2026, a large amount of Private Credit will face concentrated renewal pressure.

They don't care about the issue much

BlackRock sold 2,150 BTC before Powell's speech

According to market monitoring data, BlackRock suddenly sold approximately 2,150 Bitcoins today before Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's speech, with a total value exceeding 185 million USD.

The large sell-off has drawn market attention. Institutions typically adjust their positions before significant policy signals are released, and the market generally speculates that there may be potential bearish news to be disclosed. Currently, short-term sentiment for Bitcoin is becoming cautious.

BTC Sudden Correction! Falling Below $90k, What Happened?

Today, Bitcoin temporarily dropped 3% to around $88,000, causing market sentiment to tense up instantly. This sharp decline is the result of a combination of multiple negative factors:

Macro Shift: The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut expectations suddenly cooled, and concerns about liquidity tightening have resurfaced. Weekend Bloodbath: The option expiration date, combined with the low liquidity over the weekend, triggered a chain of liquidations and forced sales. Whale Retreat: Large holders and ETF funds that had previously made profits opted to cash out, leading to increased selling pressure.

Here's the key: Don't panic! This is just a necessary "detox" and healthy correction in a wildly bullish market. Clear up the leverage, and the vehicle will be lighter. Hold on to your chips, the bull market is still on!

Anyone can join a Bitcoin node with a computer and audit the entire Bitcoin ledger.
This is something no other currency system can do:
The ledger of the US dollar is at the Federal Reserve, requiring trust in the Federal Reserve.
The ledger of banks is at the banks, requiring trust in the banks.
Gold has no ledger, requiring trust in third-party vaults and statistics.
For any asset in traditional finance, you have to trust institutions or regulators.
Only Bitcoin: anyone can verify, and you do not need to trust anyone.

Sister, I sit at the bow of the boat, on the same boat as USDT.
Tether believes that the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts will reduce its earnings from interest, so it is heavily buying gold and Bitcoin as a hedge. It wants to transform itself into a "gold + Bitcoin" hoarding company, making it known to the market: no matter whether you are optimistic about gold or Bitcoin, Tether is on the same boat as you.