华尔街加密情报局

December 20, 2024, Friday, is destined to be a black Friday, and also a dark day for many friends in the cryptocurrency circle. We thought that the decline on the 19th was enough. Who could have expected that every time we wanted to make a big move when Trump came to power, Powell would make a big move on us first, leaving us bruised and battered. The losses really made us lose faith, and I also lost a Cullinan today. And tonight I only have one thing in mind: people in the cryptocurrency circle, please pull Powell out and whip his corpse to vent your anger!

Bitcoin's price has officially broken $90,000, marking a historic moment. The breakthrough of $100,000 should come quickly. Many people expect pullbacks similar to when BTC broke through $30,000—waiting for a pullback at $35,000, expecting it at $40,000, only to see it reach $48,000 before starting a pullback. This wave is likely to be the same.
After BTC breaks $73,000, if it does not consolidate and adjust around $85,000, there is over a 90% probability it will exceed $100,000. At the $100,000 price point, many people will still short, and at this time, it is highly likely that to clear contracts, BTC's price will touch around $110,000, then experience a pullback before continuing the next big trend.

新疆再次正式清退比特币挖矿：全网算力暴跌：14%，BTC会重演历史吗？
当算力突然消失，市场真正恐慌的，从来不是“挖不挖得出币”，而是“规则是否正在改变”。禁令：会再次打倒比特币吗？

全网算力：暴跌14%
新疆清退挖矿发生了什么？2025年12月15日，多家链上监测机构与行业媒体同时捕捉到一个异常信号：比特币全网算力，在极短时间内出现明显下滑。
不同统计口径显示，本轮算力回撤幅度在：10%–14% 区间。
算力最低跌至：Hashrate (hash/s) per day | 833.2564Ehash/s 
市场普遍将这一变化，与新疆部分地区对比特币挖矿的清退、排查或限电措施联系在一起。这并不是第一次发生，但依然足够敏感。

咏琪在这里想要讲的一点是：这一次的算力下滑，发生得非常快；但是仅仅一天过去，全网的算力全网的算力就又恢复到了1.1ZH/s。
但是BTC的行情是真的在12月15日跌下来了，我认为这个是：日元加息的利空提前消化。
但是在这里我们需要清楚一个问题：比特币算力下跌，在历史上究竟意味着什么？算力下跌的本质是：工作挖矿的矿机算力在减少，原因有很多：熊市，价格的下跌，减半挖矿难度上升、矿机的断电关停。。。
关停40万台矿机，算力跌8%
看孔剑平推测的是：这波严打有40万台机器关了。  

还记得上个月，路透社独家爆料，有新疆的比特币矿商正在重启挖矿，使中国重返全球第3。
没想到刚出点矛头，还是被打压了下去。 最亏的就是矿商，直接机器没收。

为什么这次是新疆？
首先：新疆有挖矿的比特币矿机，这个是圈内都知道，但是不说的事实，摆在台面上的叫：云数据计算中心，2019年、2024年，咏琪都亲自了解过，但是因为个人没有强硬的后台，这些我是不敢碰的。
其次：为啥都会选择是新疆呢？这不止是山高皇帝远的原因，9·4事件后，国内一刀切，当时的水电，已经是行不通的了，那么只能是：风电、光电。而这两个电，新疆都有绝对的天然优势：

新疆弃风率10.1%，弃光率12.9%；西藏弃风率30.2%，弃光率33.9%
这里有个你们都不知道的秘密：弃电，在新疆成本会低于0.1元/度。
最后还有一个原因：新疆有天然的地理位置优势，
地上：光伏发电、风能发电，种草养牛羊，
地下：数据处理，计算力高速运转，同时解决了，噪声、散热的问题，两全其美的事儿。
监管：2025年下半年，态度坚决
你可以复盘一下今年的整个严打逻辑：
始于：中国人民银行行长潘功胜：人民银行将会同执法部门打击境内虚拟货币的经营和炒作？
然后就是：13部委叫停，7大协会同发文，机构开始查！帽子叔叔在行动，190万usdt无人敢认领...
不知道是不是：今年陈志和钱志敏。这两个人影响了国内政策的判断，法网恢恢 疏而不漏——苍天饶过谁？和陈志，127,271枚比特币：全球最大链上追缴案曝光！
不管怎样，反正你在村内，只要不干违法的事儿，那么严打就和你扯不上任何的关系，

如果全球算力大减，BTC会怎样？
全球算力按区域分布情况：

其实国内在电力这方面是有着天然的优势：
主要是，我们的电力设施设备上，都是最近10年，到20年的，包括：大型电站，光电、风电这些设备，但是美国这块至少都是有40年左右的历史。
如果按照历史的数据，算力下跌，其实本质上是和BTC价格成反比的，算力下降，可产出的BTC就会减少，市场上流通的BTC就在减少，那么对应的币价应该是上涨。
算力“去中心化”的方向，
比算力“多或少”更重要
如果全球算力真的出现持续性、大规模下降，真正值得警惕的并不是比特币“会不会停摆”，而是算力结构是否发生了方向性变化。
历史经验表明，只要难度机制仍在运行，比特币从技术层面几乎不可能被“挖死”；但如果算力在短时间内向少数司法辖区、少数大型矿业集团高度集中，那么风险的性质就会发生变化——那将不再是价格问题，而是治理与博弈问题。
换句话说，算力下跌本身并不构成利空，真正的风险在于：这部分退出的算力，是被全球重新分布，还是被更强的中心化力量吸收。
前者，往往是长期利多；后者，才是需要警惕的系统性隐患。
所以，与其盯着算力“跌了多少”，不如盯着两个更重要的问题：算力是否快速恢复？恢复后的归属在哪里？
这，才是判断 BTC 中长期趋势的真正坐标。
最后：
算力波动不是命令，而是提示：比特币过去 10 年告诉我们的唯一经验是：所有真正致命的下跌，都不是从算力开始的。
算力只是网络的体温计，而不是心脏。真正决定 BTC 走向的，永远是三件事：规则是否改变、资金是否恐慌、信心是否被破坏
新疆事件，是一次提醒，但还远不到宣判。
不要被“算力下跌”四个字吓到，真正该盯紧的，是它之后发生了什么。
其实当你明白一个核心问题：比特币、稳定币，锚定的都是美元、美债
而我们村内推行的数字人民币：锚定的是：人民币。
未来谁的交易量大，谁的货币就更有价值，全球地位更有话语权

深度观察 · 独立思考 · 价值不止于价格。
星标#华尔街加密情报局，好内容不错过⭐
最后：文中的很多观点，都是代表我个人对市场的认知判断，并不对你的投资构成建议

原360高管玉红深夜炮轰周鸿祎：涉嫌财务造假，
全网公布12月16日，据社群消息显示，原360高管、XMAX 创始人玉红深夜在微信朋友圈和社群激烈抨击360集团创始人周鸿祎。
称帮周鸿祎做假账至少几十亿，且留有证据，将会全网公布。他表示周鸿祎的游戏全部涉嫌财务造假，认识周鸿祎是错误的，被其坑了很多钱。  
玉红是互联网和区块链圈知名人物，早年创办游戏公司，后将公司卖给360，加入360担任高级副总裁。
其在2018年春节时发起【3点钟区块链群】，目前仍有数百人，红杉资本沈南鹏、360 董事长周鸿祎、薛蛮子、分布式资本合伙人沈波等都是群成员。

这是有多大的深仇大恨啊！
所有人都认为这是：玉红，号被盗了！！！
但是人家很直接地说：没有啊！
这是公开辱骂周鸿祎、何一、CZ等多位行业标志性人物，言辞激烈，不知道事后有没有平息心中的怒火。
出这样的事：必然是把他逼到了，士可杀不可辱的地步了。能做到360总裁的位置，也是能装得住事儿的人，装不住的时候，肯定是到了一个人容忍的极限了。

从Web2到Web3，玉红还是牛逼
玉红，趣游集团董事长兼CEO、区块链三点钟社群发起人、区块链XMAX项目发起人。玉红，1980年出生于四川一个很普通的农村，2003年开始创业，全面负责趣游的策略规划、定位和管理。
2008年创办趣游前，玉红先生曾成功创办多家互联网企业，是中国互联网及移动互联网领域的运营专家;在移动及互联网行业拥有逾十年经验。

2018年春节前后，玉红组建了一个最初以发红包为主的私密群，后来因为群内频繁讨论区块链到凌晨三点，群名被改为——【三点钟社群】。

此时群内已经聚集了周鸿祎，沈南鹏，李笑来，薛蛮子、蔡文胜、陈伟星、汪锋，佟丽娅，高晓松等大佬。
三点钟社群每天拉专家分享，大家不眠不休，迭代观点，推动区块链认知普及，从技术意义到投资理念，最火爆时分叉出众多子群。
凭借这个群，玉红一跃成为当时币圈最有话语权的“带头大哥”之一。区块链彻底火爆出圈，吸引大量web2传统大佬纷纷加入，为行业做出巨大贡献。
这意味着两点：
第一：他并非外部“黑子”，而是体系内的人
第二：他清楚什么该说、什么不该说，也清楚说出来意味着什么
正因如此，这次公开指控才会引发高度关注。真正危险的，从来不是外部攻击，而是内部反目。
Web3里，玉红竟然是骗子？
2018年8月18日，XMX 的全球中文电报群还有15920名成员。
XMX，由【三点钟社群】创始人玉红发起的区块链明星项目，通过病毒式社群传播，不仅获得一众区块链大佬为之站台，更吸引了数不清的个人投资者蜂拥入场。
然而，在6月7日正式上线交易所后，XMX当日创下1500％的币圈跌幅纪录，投资人损失累计达3000万，引起一片哗然。
【传销币教父】、「暴力割韭菜」等无数骂名安在了玉红的头上——他在各个群里、媒体中不断为自己辩解，但没人愿意再相信他。

后来，几乎不再有人提起 XMX，那些手握大把 XMX 的“韭菜”，多数心里已经清楚：解套无望了。

6年前，在游戏行业意气风发的玉红说，我觉得每一个企业，第一个你得能看到这个市场，第二点你要去保护这个市场。可是这一次，他既没能保护好三点钟，也没能保护好 XMX。

公平的说一句：咏琪认为三点钟区块链这个媒体还是做的很不错的。内容有深度，不知道是不是因为都是聚集了圈内的大佬，这个原因。
玉红你是怎么了？
有种突然就精神失常的感觉。
是CZ在10.11事件中给你故意整爆仓了？
还是何一把你的账户冻结了？
还是因为周鸿祎真的是把你得罪了？
...

从巅峰到发疯，只用了7年。  我们见证了，玉红正在经历
犹记得2018年，玉红在三点钟群里发几十万红包，喊“币圈改变世界”，全场起立鼓掌。  那年他有豪车、别墅、XMX、挖矿农场、周鸿祎站台，活得像币圈的王。   
2025年底，他对着何一、CZ、周鸿祎破口大骂，截图里满屏“操你妈”“我要弄死你们”，群里鸦雀无声。  
熊市不杀你，它只是慢慢抽干你的血。
一个更冷静的问题：当个人与系统彻底决裂时，我们到底是想看到真相，还是只想消费一场情绪？
玉红，你可还好？
深度观察 · 独立思考 · 价值不止于价格。
星标#华尔街加密情报局，好内容不错过⭐
最后：文中的很多观点，都是代表我个人对市场的认知判断，并不对你的投资构成建议，

A16z, one of the most influential investment firms in the cryptocurrency industry, recently released its 2026 industry outlook for cryptocurrencies: 17 things to look forward to.
Three points to note before reading this content:
First point: The full text is around 12,000 words, so it really takes some time to read.
Secondly, the content was translated by Google, so there may be very minor discrepancies.
Third point: There are 17 points in total. For each point, Yongqi provided an interpretation and added data analysis.
If you can read purely in English, I've put the link at the end of the article! Now let's look at the key points:

The first thing: Stablecoins should have better and more sophisticated entry and exit points.

We have all seen it, during festivals when people show off their red envelopes and transfers, they are all competing on: who has the larger amount!
However, today, if you do not love someone and hate them instead, then just transfer 250 yuan to their bank card with the note: Dogecoin. That's enough!
This is not a joke, this really happened a few days ago.
Ms. Yu from Dalian transferred 250 yuan to her husband through Construction Bank, with a note: Dogecoin, and then was put under lockdown, directly freezing both parties' bank cards.

The latest response from China Construction Bank is:

The amount is not large, there is no fraud, no money laundering, no virtual currency transaction records, and the two parties know each other. It was just because of an unintentional note that both spouses' bank cards were frozen.

Japan hasn't raised interest rates in decades.

But this time, they may have really pressed the 'nuclear detonation switch' on the global financial markets.
A 25bps rate hike can easily happen in the US and Europe.

But a 25bps rate hike in Japan is not of the same significance.
Japan's debt accounts for 263% of GDP.

The Bank of Japan holds 55% of the national government bonds.

Japan is one of the largest capital exporting countries in the world.

Over $2.5 trillion in global arbitrage trades are linked to yen interest rates.
When a 'zero interest rate country' suddenly starts to raise rates, it’s like pulling out a foundation of the global financial system.

This matter is more serious than you think.
Recently, the news of well-known travel blogger Lan Zhanfei being kidnapped and extorted in South Africa topped the trending searches.

This is not a 'setup', not a 'misunderstanding', nor a 'self-directed and self-acted'—this is a premeditated transnational violent crime involving kidnapping + extortion + biological evidence framing that has been planned for more than half a year.
The shock level of this incident far exceeds most people's understanding.
Next, Yongqi will provide you with a complete and clear factual structure based on publicly reported media, Lan Zhanfei's personal narrative, combined with the frequent kidnapping cases in the cryptocurrency circle, safety environments, and global public safety differences.

Moore Thread's joint venture has cut 1500 BTC from CEO Xu of OKX, raising the company's market value to 400 billion??
When I saw this news, I honestly didn't believe it either.
This instantly reminded me of Sun Ge. Could it really be: before wanting to grow big and strong, one must first learn to cut?

On December 5, 2025, the domestic GPU leader Moore Thread officially landed on the Sci-Tech Innovation Board, becoming the capital market's most watched 'domestic GPU first stock'.
The main reason is: the domestic Nvidia's market value exceeds 440 billion RMB, while NVDA's market value is approaching 5 trillion USD. But the gap is still large because one is RMB and the other is: 💲

"Is there really no insider trading at Binance?"
I used to not believe there was insider trading at Binance; but this time, when they punished an employee, I believed it.
It's made me start to doubt Binance; are they not operating an exchange anymore and starting to make movies?
I don't know if this insider trading is something Binance directed personally.

In the past, many users were half-convinced, but they could only treat 'insider trading' as gossip.
However, this time, the matter has finally been nailed down on the chain.
On December 7, a Binance employee was officially confirmed to have used their position to gain advance knowledge of tweet information for personal gain. It's not a rumor, it's not a leak; it's an official announcement from Binance itself.

Federal Reserve rate cuts, economic recession, on-chain capital flow — have we really understood this round of bull market?
This might be the most concerning issue for us right now: actually, the current surge in BTC and ETH tonight basically confirms a 25 basis point rate cut, which is certain.
But what Yongqi wants to say today is: don't get it wrong, a 25 basis point rate cut will be bearish, while a 50 basis point cut will be bullish! If it's a 25 basis point cut, there's a high probability it will rise and then fall back. It's not a real major positive!

This is proven by historical data and the experience accumulated over the past 8 years. By December 2025, market expectations for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve continue to rise.

13 ministries have called for a halt, and 7 major associations have issued documents:
The moment when the regulatory "barrier" was fully closed, the true boundaries of China's cryptocurrency market arrived.
In the past two weeks, the entire cryptocurrency circle has been asking: Is this another round of large-scale "crackdowns"? Or is it a precursor to a bull market surge?

Thirteen departments have stopped illegal virtual currency activities, and seven industry associations have unusually issued risk warnings simultaneously, while institutions have begun inspections... The atmosphere is tense, but if you carefully read the documents,
you will be surprised to find that the regulatory focus has never been on the "crypto circle," but rather on illegal activities such as air coins, illegal use of stablecoins, illegal issuance of RWA, cross-border money laundering, and Ponzi-style mining.

When all bad news is quiet, the market will be even louder.
Every cycle is the same—investors' anxiety about whether 'good news realization is bad news' is never absent.

From the end of 2025 to the beginning of 2026, U.S. monetary policy, trade patterns, employment trends, and inflation structure are collectively forming a critical turning point: good news may not come quickly, but the bad news may indeed be exhausted.
But what the market fears most is not bad news, but rather 'uncertainty'. Now, the boundaries of bad news are gradually narrowing, while good news has not yet occurred, but its probability has greatly increased. Therefore, we are at a very delicate point in time—it's not the starting point of a bull market, but the 'liquidity vacuum relief period' before the bull market.

Bitcoin: The Supply Crisis has fully erupted - Where has all the BTC gone?
$90,000 to $200,000, or even $1,000,000, is it a dream? Is it speculation? Or is it the logic of currency deflation?
If you still think that the current Bitcoin price of over $90,000 is high, you might be completely ignoring a super trend that is quietly happening and could change the fate of Bitcoin - the Supply Squeeze.
And this crisis is not caused by miners, nor is it due to exchanges running away, but rather: Bitcoin on global exchanges is evaporating like being drained, while users are not selling but locking it into cold wallets.

This is an in-depth report from Yung Chi coming from Dubai:
At the 2025 Dubai Future Finance Summit, the two most representative figures in the "value reserve system debate": Binance founder Zhao Changpeng CZ and gold bull standard bearer Peter Schiff.

Finally, a rare public discussion took place on the same stage.
The scene of the two is comparable to an epoch-making confrontation in the history of currency: one represents the future of the post-digital utopia and the era of crypto finance; the other represents the guardian of five thousand years of monetary history and traditional value systems.

When everyone thought 2025 was the 'Age of Exploration in the Crypto World', the beginning of a crazy bull market!!!
However, the seawater receded within six months, causing countless people who once soared in the wind to fall back to the ground.
Fervor is not a crime; misjudging the era is.
In the first half of 2025, the crypto industry, under the blessings of relaxed regulations, institutional embrace, ETF enthusiasm, and liquidity expectations, was once seen as the 'Year of Mainstreaming Digital Assets'.

Bitcoin reached $126,000, ETH broke through $4,900, and everyone thought this was the starting point of a crazy bull market, at which point altcoins would refresh the wealth myth with outrageous gains.

The hottest topic these days should be: fake donations, a crazy French kiss with a KOL at an offline event in Dubai, and more hotel activity videos.
The scene is even more passionate than a 20-year-old couple in love, but she seems to have forgotten one thing: she is in Dubai, not in the village, nor in the beautiful country and romantic France.
In Dubai, passionate kissing in public places can lead to imprisonment. Fake donation!

So, this matter is too risky, and ordinary people can't do it; either your figure is not good enough, or you don't have enough guts!

Last night a risky operation led to my WeChat account being banned for 7 days!
It’s hard to think about it!
I hope you all do not continue to step into the pit!
I did this: I tested the law! The final outcome is: banned for 7 days.
Still, thanks to Tencent.

Today I reviewed it repeatedly,
I found out the fundamental reason for this ban:
The reason for the ban is as follows: Yesterday, a fan who has followed my public account for more than two years asked me to add him to the group; he wants to join the group for learning and communication.

By the evening, I finished writing the public account,
Looking at the data and the market, BTC and ETH have started to rise; I feel a decent rebound is coming.

Vanguard Group has been breached: the US wealth management system has fully opened its doors to Bitcoin.
Cryptocurrency assets have been institutionalized, finally ushering in a true era of greatness!!!

1. Two shocking events that have shaken the world: the last bastion of traditional finance has been breached.
In the past 48 hours, two events have occurred in the crypto industry with significance comparable to the 'approval of Bitcoin ETF':
1) The second largest asset management company globally - Vanguard Group
Officially allows the trading of Bitcoin ETF
The management scale is close to 11 trillion dollars
Second only to BlackRock globally
Once the strongest 'anti-crypto front' in the US
The CEO publicly stated last year that he does not recognize the long-term value of BTC