叶知秋大魔王

12-20 Evening Market View

Current ETH price is running around the range of 2988–2995, and the short-term trend has entered the correction phase after a decline. From an overall structural perspective, although the price has seen a short-term rebound, it is still in the weak range of oscillation following the previous decline. The rebound strength is relatively weak, and no effective breakthrough structure has formed, still belonging to a technical repair market.

BOLL: The upper band is located around 3000, the middle band is around 2976, and the lower band is around 2755.
The current price is oscillating narrowly around the middle band: the upper band has slightly flattened, indicating weak bullish expansion. The middle band is slowly rising but lacks sufficient slope, with still existing downward pressure, while the lower band is gradually stabilizing and moving up, indicating a decrease in downward momentum. Overall, it belongs to a typical weak rebound repair structure, not a trend reversal.

MACD: The red bars are shortening, indicating weakening bullish momentum, and DIF and DEA are below the zero line, still in a weak zone, with no effective golden cross appearing. The market does not have a clear directional breakthrough; the trend is a weak rebound, not a strong reversal.

Long Position Strategy (buy on dips)
Entry Position: 2945 – 2925
Target Position: 2990 – 3020
Stop Loss Position: below 2900
Dips around the middle band belong to the support confirmation area, can only buy on dips, not chase highs.

Short Position Strategy (defend against rebounds)
Entry Position: 3025 – 3045 (rebound under pressure)
Target Position: 2970 – 2930 – 2880
Stop Loss Position: above 3065
If it effectively stabilizes above 3050, the bearish strategy fails.

ETH currently belongs to the BOLL middle band oscillation and MACD bearish repair structure, and overall it is still mainly a range oscillation strategy. The rebound strength is limited, and chasing highs is not advisable; still need to follow your fixed framework of "buy on dips, defend against rebounds".
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Currently, the panic index has reached 22. The last time we analyzed at this level, it was around greed 75, with the price at 124000. At that time, we were heavily shorting, and in less than a month, it seems the sky is about to change!
Refuse habitual thinking. The recent market has been very unusual, with changing directions, a departure from the previous small fluctuation trend. Focus on the trend; it won't always go smoothly. Capture a wave and hold for the long term!
Opportunities under panic are arriving; small-scale bottom fishing has begun!

Simple market fluctuations eat meat