宝叔讲币

A long-time old friend by my side has been deeply involved in the cryptocurrency circle for 8 years, using the most "clumsy" methods in the eyes of others to turn a principal of 500,000 into over 50 million. He is 43 years old this year, a native of Shanghai, and lives a low-key ordinary life: he owns 4 properties, 1 for himself, 1 for family use, and the remaining 2 are for rental income. ​

In these 8 years of trading cryptocurrencies, he has managed to multiply his principal by hundreds of times, relying not on insider information nor on luck, but on strictly adhering to a set of simple principles.

【Six Iron Rules of the Cryptocurrency Circle｜Understanding them is more useful than learning ten technical indicators】​
Rapid rise, slow fall = Accumulation: When stock prices are surging, the momentum is strong, but when there is a pullback, it is often gentle, indicating that large funds are quietly accumulating. Don’t be scared out of the market by slight declines; pay attention to the overall rhythm. ​

Sudden drop, no rise = Distribution: After a sudden major drop in stock prices, if the rebound lacks strength, it is usually a sign that the main forces are secretly withdrawing. Don't think this is an opportunity to pick up bargains; be careful not to become a bag holder. ​

High volume at peak does not equal a definite top: When stock prices see increased volume at high levels, it does not necessarily mean the peak has been reached; it might continue to rise; conversely, a decrease in volume at high levels is likely a signal that the market is reaching its top. ​

Be cautious of a sudden increase in volume at the bottom; multiple increases in volume are safer: A sudden spike in volume at the bottom may be a fake move by the main players; continuous increases in volume indicate that real market consensus is forming. ​

Trading cryptocurrencies is about emotions, and direction comes from consensus: Don’t get lost in complicated candlestick charts; market psychology is the core. And volume is the most direct manifestation of consensus. ​
"Nothing" is the true realm: Without obsessions, not being greedy, and not panicking, one can survive in the cryptocurrency circle for the long term. Those who can endure empty positions and wait for opportunities are qualified to seize major market movements. ​

Lastly, I want to say: The true enemy in trading is never the cold data or chaotic information, but one's own mindset. Those news, policies, and so-called market manipulation and distribution are merely surface phenomena; the biggest variable in the market is always human sentiment.
​
The cryptocurrency world is full of uncertainties, with many challenges, but opportunities are also hidden within. Staying calm and rational, and responding to changes with a solid strategy, is the way to go further. ​Follow me to go further @宝叔讲币

BlackRock sets the investment theme for 2025! Bitcoin joins core assets, how should retail investors position themselves?

Global asset management giant BlackRock recently released a significant signal at the New York summit, placing Bitcoin alongside U.S. Treasury bonds and the stocks of the seven big tech companies, labeling them as the three core pillars of a modern investment portfolio, directly establishing Bitcoin as the top investment theme for 2025.

This statement is by no means a simple shift in direction; it officially grants Bitcoin a "mainstream asset passport." From BlackRock's perspective, Bitcoin has long transcended the realm of speculation, becoming a key allocation tool for hedging against currency devaluation and addressing fiscal imbalances, thus solidifying its position as "digital gold."

The institutional layout strategy is already clear; Bitcoin-related products with income-generating functions may accelerate their introduction in 2025, shifting market discussion from "whether to allocate" to "how to optimize holdings."

For retail investors, this is undoubtedly a strong boost. The endorsement from leading institutions will attract more funds and products into the market, solidifying Bitcoin's long-term value foundation.

Investors who are still on the sidelines should face the allocation value of Bitcoin, but should avoid blindly chasing highs. Gradually building positions with idle funds and holding long-term remains the most prudent operational strategy.

The crypto market is fully entering the "institutional era"; only by closely following trends and making steady allocations can one secure a foothold amidst the industry wave. The investment track for 2025 is already clear, are you ready? Follow @宝叔讲币 for daily sharing of precise entry timing and real-time market interpretations!

Beware! Tonight's resolution in Tokyo may trigger a 10% drop in Bitcoin

Investors in the cryptocurrency market must keep a close eye on their positions! Tonight, global capital is focusing on the Bank of Japan—this key interest rate decision in thirty years may become a liquidity storm sweeping through the crypto market.

Before the resolution, Bitcoin had already fallen from a high of 90,000 USD, once breaching the 85,000 USD mark. Wall Street analysts warn that Bitcoin may start a sell-off over the next few weeks, with a drop of at least 10%, targeting down to 84,500 USD; historical data shows even harsher realities, as in the past three instances following interest rate hikes by the central bank, Bitcoin's decline within 1-2 months exceeded 20%, with the highest close to 32%.

The core logic of all this lies in yen carry trades. For a long time, international institutions have borrowed zero-cost yen, exchanged it for USD, and massively increased their positions in high-yield assets like Bitcoin. Once the interest rate hike is confirmed, borrowing costs will soar, and institutions will have to sell off assets to repay yen debts, with Bitcoin—being highly liquid and volatile—often becoming the front runner in sell-offs.

The current market appears even more fragile: on-chain data shows a massive inflow of Bitcoin into exchanges, and miners are shutting down due to compressed profits, leading to a decline in hash power; the narrative of Bitcoin as “digital gold” is failing, with its volatility trajectory more closely resembling that of tech stocks; the global divergence in monetary policy is exacerbating liquidity chaos, further amplifying market pressure.

This interest rate hike has already been largely priced in by the market, and the key lies in the central bank's future policy guidance. If it signals continued tightening, selling may persist; if the tone softens, the market may welcome a rebound as negative sentiments are fully priced in.

This also warns all crypto participants: as Bitcoin is included in Wall Street ETFs, its deep binding with traditional financial tides means that its decentralized risk-averse properties may crumble in the face of macro liquidity. How the crypto world constructs an independent and stable value anchor is becoming an urgent topic for consideration.

Disclaimer: This article is merely a market information interpretation and does not constitute any investment advice. The risks in the crypto market are extremely high, and decisions should be made with caution.

Did Japan's rate hike cause a frenzy in the cryptocurrency market? Retail investors, don't be harvested as 'chives'!

Seeing altcoins with daily gains of 40% or 70%, are you also excited, feeling that financial freedom is just around the corner? Don't rush in yet! This seemingly enticing market is actually a sugar-coated investment trap.

Japan has started raising interest rates, and global monetary policy is tightening. Normally, risk assets should fall, but the cryptocurrency market has shown the opposite trend, revealing the manipulation tactics of large funds behind the scenes. This is by no means a market recovery, but rather a carefully designed expectation management scam—main players have already digested the rate hike news and are just waiting for the policy to take effect to push prices up violently, creating a false impression of 'bad news is fully priced in', luring retail investors to buy at high prices.

Looking at currencies like LIGHT and SOPH, daily trading volume easily exceeds a hundred million, which is not something retail investors can affect. Whales, leveraging their information and financial advantages, are performing the act of driving prices up to sell off. You think you are chasing the trend, but little do you know you have already become the 'fuel' for main players to harvest. This surge is essentially a double test of retail investors' perception and greed.

How can retail investors break the deadlock? Remember these two points:

1. Give up illusions and recognize reality: This is not a bull market with widespread gains, but a gaming arena set up by main players; blindly chasing highs will only make you a bag holder.

2. Counteract instincts and operate in reverse: When the whole network is shouting 'opportunity is here', what you need to do is not follow the crowd but maintain fear. When others are frantic, first assess whether your wallet can withstand a crash.

The cryptocurrency market has never been charity; it rewards insight and patience while punishing greed and conformity. Today's revelry is tomorrow's deep pit. To survive in the market, you must stay clear-headed and act against human nature!

From the perspective of the Japanese yen interest rate hike: The underlying logic of Bitcoin's initial drop followed by a rise, and why retail investors always miss out?

Most people only see the short-term plunge of Bitcoin triggered by the Japanese yen interest rate hike, but overlook the strong rebound that follows the crash. This is precisely the cognitive gap between ordinary investors and market operators. Clearly, the expectation of an interest rate hike has long been established, yet many people insist on waiting until the moment it happens to follow the trend and sell off, ultimately being left far behind by the market.

In this interest rate hike of the Japanese yen, the intensity of Bitcoin's decline will not replicate the past drastic drop; instead, it will welcome a surge after a brief dip. The core reason is that the market has already digested the negative impact of the interest rate hike in advance, and the current decline shows extreme contraction characteristics, indicating that the selling willingness of on-site chips is nearing exhaustion. Major funds only need to slightly push down the market to ignite the downward trigger, and they can sit back and wait for retail investors to panic and sell off, taking the opportunity to accumulate at lower prices.

The decline seen by retail investors is a loss and exit, while for the major players, it is a good opportunity to harvest chips. The major players first sell off some chips to trigger panic; when retail investors follow suit and sell, the major players buy back; after a few retail investors bottom fish, the major players will push down again, further exacerbating the panic, and this operation is repeated. Ultimately, the chips held by the major players far exceed the initial amount sold, while retail investors, due to panic, dare not buy back, resulting in a significant reduction in their positions.

More critically, a Japanese yen interest rate hike to 0.75% may not necessarily trigger a cliff-like tightening of global liquidity. The combination of the yen interest rate hike and the dollar interest rate cut will drive the appreciation of the yen and the depreciation of the dollar. At this point, the dollar cost of repaying yen debt will increase significantly—previously, 100 dollars could be exchanged for 15,500 yen, but now it can only be exchanged for 14,000 yen, requiring more than 10 additional dollars to repay the same amount of yen debt. What truly affects liquidity is not the interest rate hike itself, but the subsequent hawkish stance of the Bank of Japan.

The outside world often mocks Brother Maji, saying that what flows in his pipes is not water, but real gold and silver. In response, all I can say is: mocking Maji is essentially a lack of cognitive dimension, just as people did not understand Liangxi's madness back in the day. Looking at the history of the cryptocurrency circle, Nakamoto, Vitalik Buterin, Zhao Changpeng, and even Sun Yuchen have all proven over time: only the long-termists who relentlessly pursue Bitcoin can reach the top.

In this ecosystem, besides BTC, ETH as "digital oil" has built the deepest moat, while SOL is the most promising challenger in the public chain track; they are core assets that are extremely difficult to go to zero. Brother Maji's contract targets happen to be the favorites of these spot traders. His strategy may seem aggressive, but in reality, it amplifies the logic of "buy and hold" with leverage.

This kind of play in a volatile or bear market is tantamount to suicide and can lead to liquidation to the point of questioning life. However, as long as the market warms up, even if it’s just a small bull run or a strong rebound, the power of leverage can instantly fill his pockets. This is the essence of the "Maji strategy": you can lose countless times, but as long as you win once, you can completely turn the tables.

This is an extreme faith-based flow strategy—only going long, firmly believing in a long bull market for the industry, and seeing every decline as a washout. However, this "seeking wealth in danger" model should not be blindly imitated by ordinary people, as it requires you to first have a "victory" sufficient to cover costs as your backing.

Key signal at 23:00 tonight! The US core PCE data for September will ignite the market

Attention all investors, at 23:00 tonight, the market focus will be on the release of the US core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) data for September. This data is not an ordinary economic indicator, but rather the most important inflation reference for the Federal Reserve when formulating monetary policy, its influence far exceeds that of the CPI and is directly related to the direction of future interest rate cuts.

The release of core PCE data often quickly stirs the nerves of global financial markets, with major asset prices in cryptocurrency, gold, and US stocks likely to experience significant fluctuations. For investors, the outcome of this data will serve as a key basis for judging whether the Federal Reserve will signal easing in December.

Specifically, the impact path of the data results is clear: if the published value is lower than market expectations, it means that US inflation pressure is further alleviating, and market expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts will subsequently increase, which will be favorable for risk assets like cryptocurrency, increasing the probability of price rises; if the data is higher than expected, it indicates that inflation still has strong stickiness, and the Federal Reserve may delay interest rate cut plans, putting short-term pressure on various assets.

The timing of this key data release is also viewed by many short-term traders as the best operational window. It is recommended that everyone set reminders in advance and closely monitor market dynamics. After the data is released, I will promptly synchronize market analysis and interpretation within the community, and everyone is welcome to follow up and exchange views.

Powell's "Two-Handed" Maneuver Disturbs the Market: Stubbornly Refusing to Cut Rates, Gradually Slowing Down Balance Sheet Reduction While Secretly Injecting Liquidity! Trump's Pressure + Resignation Rumors, Cryptocurrency Market Under Pressure and Fluctuating

Last night's Federal Reserve meeting left cryptocurrency investors completely bewildered! Powell took the "dual operation" to the extreme, publicly stating he is in no hurry to cut rates, then quietly slowed down the pace of balance sheet reduction, indirectly injecting liquidity into the market. This reversal is more thrilling than contract liquidations, and the underlying calculations are intriguing.

Stubborn to the End: Powell firmly maintains a hawkish stance, with the Federal Reserve holding the initiative in policy. If the economy is stable, they will observe; if employment is weak, they will act, primarily emphasizing patience in the game.

Covert Operations: Slowing down balance sheet reduction is equivalent to opening the liquidity faucet without cutting rates, avoiding a shortage of funds in the market, which is an invisible benefit for the cryptocurrency sector.

Inflation and Economic Risks: Although inflation has shown signs of improvement, it remains relatively high. New tariffs may drive up prices; if it's just a one-time shock, it can be overlooked. The U.S. economy appears stable on the surface, but corporate and consumer confidence is declining, and future trends are more uncertain than contract markets.

Trump's Pressure Adds Chaos: Trump publicly called for Powell's resignation, nicknamed him "Mr. Too Late" and threatened investigation. Although his term lasts until May 2026, the resignation rumors have already stirred the market, and past statements have inevitably caused fluctuations in stocks, bonds, and currencies, making it hard for the cryptocurrency market to remain unscathed.

This operation is not paving the way for rate cuts but is a form of hidden easing; the tightest days of liquidity may be over. The slowdown in balance sheet reduction signals a policy shift, and smart money has begun to position itself. If Powell resigns early and is replaced by a new leader who supports rate cuts, could the cryptocurrency market see a surge? Do you think Powell will resign? Can the cryptocurrency market enter a bull market after a leadership change? Let's discuss in the comments!

The expectations for interest rate cuts are fluctuating, making it difficult for the crypto market to escape the turmoil.

If the probability of an interest rate cut decreases further tomorrow, the crypto market will likely face another drop. Looking back at this market cycle, since the expectations for an interest rate cut were announced in December, Federal Reserve officials have frequently commented on the probability of interest rate cuts. When the probability rises, the market tends to follow suit and rise; when the probability falls, the market responds with a drop. This kind of operation undoubtedly stirs market sentiment repeatedly.

What is even more concerning is that even if an interest rate cut really occurs in December, the market is unlikely to have a strong response. After all, the value of policy expectations lies in the 'unknown'. Such frequent statements and adjustments to expectations will only erode the market's anticipation of interest rate cuts, leading to an early depletion of the originally positive effects. When the actual policy is implemented, what may remain is only the market's numbness and desolation.

How much short-term impact do you think the Federal Reserve's subsequent statements will have on the crypto market?

The president is impressive; even the shape of his face can influence the economic situation

Is your account down to just a few hundred U? Don't rush to open a position yet.

I've seen too many people holding onto a few hundred U, hoping to make a 'big comeback', only to end up losing their principal completely—crypto trading is not a casino, but rather a survival game of who can last the longest.

The less money you have, the more you should act like a calm old hunter: first protect your principal, then look for certain opportunities. When I introduced a new friend to trading last year, he was so nervous with his 500U account that his hands were shaking; I only advised him: "Don't think about doubling your money, first learn not to get liquidated." Three months later, his account grew to 18000U, and he never got liquidated even once, nor did he add a single cent in margin, relying on three 'simple rules':

1. Split your funds into three parts, leave a way out. Use 150U for short-term BTC/ETH trades, taking profit or cutting losses at a 3% fluctuation; 150U for swing trades waiting for daily line breakthroughs, holding no more than 5 days; 200U as a 'lifeline position', steadfastly not touching it in extreme market conditions—those who go all in can lose everything in a single spike, leaving enough reserves to withstand market fluctuations.

2. Only chase trends, avoid sideways markets. The market spends 70% of its time in consolidation, frequent trading will only waste transaction fees. I only wait for two signals: a volume spike on the 15-minute K-line + a MACD golden cross/death cross on the daily line; only when both are present do I take action. When profits reach 12%, I take half off the table, letting the remaining profits 'run naturally'—being a step behind is not a loss, while chasing highs can easily lead to being trapped.

3. Lock in discipline, zero out emotions. If a single loss reaches 2%, automatically close the position and shut down the software; take half off when profits hit 4%, setting a 3% trailing stop for the remainder. Never add to a losing position, don’t cling to the hope of 'waiting for a pullback'—the market can be misjudged, but discipline must never waver.

The leap from a few hundred U to tens of thousands U is not due to luck, but rather the compounding effect of 'making fewer mistakes'. In your current small capital operations, do you value short-term profits more, or swing trading layouts?

Tonight at 9:30 PM! U.S. employment data is coming, and the crypto market may face significant fluctuations.

At 21:30 tonight, global financial markets will closely monitor the U.S. non-farm employment data—this key economic indicator is expected to ignite the cryptocurrency market.

This data is highly anticipated, primarily because the U.S. government has been in a shutdown for a month and a half, during which important employment statistics have been lacking. More critically, this report may lack the core unemployment rate reference indicator, likely leading to market misjudgments and further exacerbating short-term volatility.

On the surface, this looks more like a mixed report card for the U.S. economy: hourly wages are expected to rise slightly by 0.3%, the unemployment rate may stabilize at 4.3%, and about 50,000 new non-farm jobs are expected, a significant drop from 120,000 in August, appearing to show a moderate trend, but deep-seated concerns cannot be ignored.

The drastic reversal in market expectations is even more alarming: within just one month, the probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut plummeted from 94% to 49%, and this fluctuation in expectations itself will amplify the volatility of the crypto market. Coupled with the recent escalation of geopolitical risks due to international conflicts, some funds may turn to cryptocurrencies for hedging, further disturbing the market landscape.

Additionally, inflationary pressures in the U.S. have yet to ease, and under the interplay of multiple factors, tonight's crypto market trend is fraught with uncertainty. For investors, the most prudent strategy right now is to maintain a rational wait-and-see approach, avoiding blind chasing of highs or panic selling, and calmly responding to potential market fluctuations.

Sleepless Night! The Fed + Nvidia's Double Whammy Hits, the Cryptocurrency Life-and-Death Game Has Started!

Tonight, the global market is destined to boil! Two major heavyweight events will reshape the wealth pattern, and every cryptocurrency trader must not miss out:

1. The Fed's 'Policy Team' Speaks Intensively: Starting at 11 PM, the board members will take turns making statements, with the core meeting minutes being released at 3 AM. As the global liquidity 'master switch', its policy direction directly determines the fate of the cryptocurrency market—loose policies will lead to a surge of funds into the crypto market, while tightening will likely put pressure on the market!

2. Nvidia's Earnings Report Sets Risk Preference: At 5 AM, the performance report of this AI giant will become the 'guiding stick' for fund flow. If the performance exceeds expectations, some funds may flow back to the stock market; if it falls short, Bitcoin, as a traditional safe-haven asset, is expected to attract funds.

📊 Tonight's Operating Guide (directly applicable):
· Place orders in advance, refuse to stay up late: Focus on the Fed minutes at 3 AM, pre-set BTC/USDT pin strategies (e.g., buy at a 7% drop, take profit at a 5% rise), using mechanical operations to avoid emotional traps.
· Reduce leverage, protect your capital: Tonight's volatility will break extremes—immediately reduce positions if leverage exceeds 5 times! Survive to seize future opportunities.
· Follow the trend closely, lay out precisely:
· Fed 'Doves' (release easing signals) → Prioritize laying out ETH and strong altcoins.
· Nvidia 'Thunder' (performance under expectations) → Focus on BTC and gold's safe-haven opportunities.

The cryptocurrency market is never short of following retail investors, only lacking calm hunters. Most people lose money because they cannot understand the funding logic behind the news. Tonight is a critical point to cash in on information differences; the market always rewards the few awake ones—will you be the panicked sheep fleeing or the hunter laying out contrary positions?

Real-time strategies and data analysis are ready. If you want to keep up with tonight's real trading rhythm and accurately grasp buying and selling opportunities, quickly gather in the community to lock in wealth opportunities! @宝叔讲币

The Federal Reserve signals a cooling of inflation, can the crypto space really迎来 a breathing window?

The latest statement from Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Jefferson releases a key signal: the tight job market is easing, and the risks of rising inflation have significantly decreased. Next week, the Beige Book will be released, reflecting the economic reality. In plain terms, the previously tightening monetary policy is likely to enter a "loosening cycle," which is undoubtedly a lifeline for the long-pressured crypto space.

The core logic is clear: after expectations of U.S. dollar liquidity easing heat up, previously cautious hot money urgently needs to find high-volatility tracks to seek returns, and the crypto space is a natural destination. However, it is important to realize that the Federal Reserve emphasizes "cautiously advancing" easing, which does not mean a direct flood of liquidity; a mad bull market in the short term is unlikely, and a volatile upward trend may be the main tone.

Don't misunderstand this as "old news炒作"—previously, the market only expected a "pause in rate hikes," but now the risk of inflation has substantially decreased. This difference in expectations is enough to drive core currencies like Bitcoin and Ethereum stronger. If Bitcoin stabilizes at 97,000, hitting the 100,000 mark is not just talk; altcoins may rebound in response, but attention should still be paid to the movements of core coins, and air coins should be avoided.

If the Beige Book further releases easing signals next week, the crypto space is expected to consolidate a short-term rebound into a phase of market activity. But at this moment, going all-in is absolutely inadvisable; the word "cautious" from the Federal Reserve serves as a warning to aggressive investors.

If this wave of market sees Bitcoin touch 100,000, will you regret missing out, or will you hold your position and wait for a higher point? Follow me for daily shares of on-chain data and precise entry points, guiding you to seize year-end market opportunities and steadily accumulate wealth! @宝叔讲币 #美国加征关税

The logic of Bitcoin bull and bear markets has changed, and the bear market is precisely the opportunity for layout.

Does the traditional four-year bull and bear cycle of Bitcoin still hold? If this round of bull market peaks at 126,000 U and then turns bearish, the previous 'banana-shaped' end acceleration market has not appeared; instead, there has been a gentle rise throughout — behind this is a qualitative change in market perception. Now retail investors have long figured out the rules of 'buying the dip in a bear market and taking profits in a bull market,' and mainstream forces such as institutions, listed companies, and sovereign funds have also entered the game. The previous methods of crazily squeezing and harvesting retail investors have become ineffective.

Looking back at history, the last bear market fell from 69,000 U to 15,000 U, and the bottom typically falls about 23% from the peak of the previous bull market. However, this round has various funds supporting it, and the bear market low is very likely to be above 55,000 U, and it may stabilize around 60,000 U.

Investing in Bitcoin requires a shift in thinking: a decline is never a risk but the only opportunity to gather chips. Contracts cannot compete with the opponent's positions, and spread trades cannot outperform market makers; only long-term holding is the kingly way. Don't get caught up in buying at the lowest point; use a strategy of 'buy small on small dips, buy big on big dips' to buy in batches.

Currently, Bitcoin has fallen from 126,000 U to 31,000 U, and the price level of 95,000 U is much more attractive than the peak. Since we expect the next bull market to break the previous high, buying in now means locking in potential profits of 31,000 U per coin in advance. The bear market is not scary; fear is the biggest enemy. Now is the golden window period for laying out future long bulls.

The cryptocurrency market experiences sudden fluctuations! Retail investors' guide to guaranteed profits: Don't panic, this operation is wise

Recently, the news in the cryptocurrency market has been turbulent, with alternating positive and negative influences, causing many retail investors to exclaim, "I can't hold on." In fact, behind the market fluctuations lies a pattern, and today we will break down the core logic to teach you how to respond accurately!

The drop in U.S. inflation data has directly pushed Bitcoin back up to the $95,000 mark. This data can be seen as the market's "barometer"—after the signal of economic cooling is released, market expectations for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates have risen, and funds are flowing back into high-risk assets. Combined with the continued net inflow of institutional ETFs, the support for Bitcoin is constantly strengthening, and the possibility of a significant decline is extremely low.

However, risks must still be monitored: the situation in the Middle East is turbulent, and regulatory policies are not yet clear, making short-term fluctuations inevitable. Previously, a policy adjustment in a small country triggered a 10% daily plunge in some altcoins, but fortunately, they quickly rebounded within 24 hours, demonstrating the current market's resilience.

Three core operating principles for retail investors, remember them to avoid pitfalls:

1. Refuse to chase highs and sell lows: Entering the market during a surge often results in becoming a "bag holder." Many around have suffered heavy losses by chasing MEME coins at high prices, a painful lesson;

2. Dollar-cost averaging into core assets: Bitcoin and Ethereum, as the "ballast" of the cryptocurrency market, should be gradually bought during dips, with idle funds invested regularly, holding long-term to weather the cycles;

3. Reserve cash for bottom-fishing: Keep 10%-20% of funds to pick up cheap chips when the market drops by more than 10%, which is much safer than blindly going all in.

Short-term views focus on emotional fluctuations, while long-term views focus on industry trends. The cryptocurrency market has long-term positive prospects but has many pitfalls. For retail investors to profit, the key is "stability"—not being greedy for short-term gains, sticking to value targets, and patiently waiting for the wind to come.

Want to know about undervalued potential tracks? Follow me for the next issue revealing three major potential sectors! To get precise entry points and stop-loss suggestions, you can join the exclusive community for real-time operational guidance～@宝叔讲币

Has the 4-year cycle in the cryptocurrency market completely failed? This year's crash has already torn up the old script.

"The cyclical patterns you are obsessed with are no match for the human nature in this game."

Recently, Hunter Horsley's revelations have shattered the consensus in the cryptocurrency community: the once-lauded '4-year bull-bear cycle' led many to believe that a downturn wouldn't occur until 2026, yet a large number of investors unexpectedly sold off this year as a hedge. This wave of concentrated exits has directly dragged 2025 into a downward channel, causing the myth of the 4-year cycle that had persisted for years to collapse instantly.

In fact, this outcome has long been foreshadowed. The cryptocurrency market is no longer in the wild days of 'halving equals bull market.' After the arrival of spot ETFs, institutional funds have entered on a large scale, completely rewriting the old logic dominated by retail investors. The days when one could just 'stick to the cycle' and earn effortlessly are gone; those who still cling to the old script will only become the bag holders standing at high positions — this year's collective crash is the best proof: everyone wanted to 'escape early,' but in the end, they all blocked their own exit routes.

More importantly, the market situation in 2026 has become the 'Schrodinger's puzzle.' Without a cyclical anchor point, the cryptocurrency market no longer has shortcuts to guaranteed profits; it now relies solely on real skills: keeping a close eye on new capital flows and thoroughly understanding sector rotation logic, rather than just waiting for ups and downs while staring at the calendar.

Are you still holding on to the old almanac of 'must rise every 4 years'? Tomorrow, I will break down the three core directions that institutions are quietly laying out. Would you like me to organize it into an easily understandable layout checklist for beginners?

Follow me, and I will help you see through the fog of on-chain data. If you are unsure about specific entry and exit points, feel free to reach out to me at @宝叔讲币 to lock in quality layout opportunities in advance!

Non-farm data ambush on Thursday! Attention cryptocurrency brothers! A significant change is coming—The U.S. non-farm payroll report for September, originally scheduled for early October, has officially been announced to be released next Thursday. Surprisingly, the data for September 2025 will be delayed until November of the same year. This wave of 'data delays' is actually a hidden danger caused by the U.S. government shutdown, which is definitely not a trivial matter for the cryptocurrency world!

Non-farm data, as the 'weather vane' of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, directly influences expectations for interest rate hikes and cuts, and has always been the 'trigger' for fluctuations in the cryptocurrency market. Strong data leads to heightened expectations for interest rate hikes, causing the market's risk aversion sentiment to rise; weak data results in earlier expectations for rate cuts, which may bring incremental funds back into cryptocurrencies. During the last round of unexpectedly weak non-farm data, Bitcoin surged by 5% in a single day, and altcoins followed suit; conversely, when the data exceeded expectations positively, it also triggered a collective adjustment in the cryptocurrency market. This delay in release has turned market sentiment into a 'ticking time bomb'.

In the face of fluctuations, retail investors should focus on these 3 points to win:

1. Reduce positions before Thursday to avoid risks; high-leverage positions must be lowered to prevent being instantly liquidated after data release;

2. Keep a close eye on the U.S. dollar index and the movements of U.S. stocks; after the non-farm data is released, the trends of both will be transmitted to the cryptocurrency market within ten minutes;

3. Reserve funds for bottom-fishing; if weak data triggers a sharp drop, consider accumulating spot positions in batches, with a focus on Ethereum and strong altcoins.

My prediction: The U.S. labor market has shown signs of weakness, and this non-farm data is likely to be weak. Once confirmed, expectations for interest rate cuts will rise, and cryptocurrencies may see a return of funds. Don't be shaken out by the fluctuations; hold onto your core assets! #加密市场回调

Bitcoin ETF funds are fleeing! Is the bull market coming to an end? This article unveils the truth

In the morning, I opened the market software, and the cryptocurrency world stirred again: the outflow of funds from the U.S. Bitcoin ETF reached a historic high in a single day, causing panic in the community, with many investors anxiously asking, 'Are institutions pulling out?' 'Is the bull market over?' Hold on, this operation is not that simple!

In fact, behind the fund outflow, the core issue is the adjustment of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut expectations + the chain reaction of fluctuations in the U.S. stock market. Institutions are much more agile than retail investors, withdrawing funds during market volatility and then positioning themselves in the options market to capitalize on the volatility – essentially, it's about selling high and buying low during fluctuations, using the strategy of 'changing positions without leaving the market'.

Currently, Bitcoin is hovering around $90,000, with technical support appearing somewhat weak, but this is by no means the end; rather, it could be a rare opportunity to get in. Looking back at last year's market, every significant pullback was an opportunity to scoop up quality assets: a friend of mine bought Ethereum at the bottom during the major drop in May, and now the returns have already doubled. The market is washing out, and it has always been the unstable-minded short-term traders who get washed out.

My view is very clear: don’t be intimidated by the surface data of 'fund outflow', institutional repositioning is not exiting the market, but rather a change in strategy. Retail investors should not follow the crowd to cut losses but should hold onto their spot positions tightly, and when prices drop significantly, they should gradually add to their positions, refusing to blindly go all in.

Want to accurately grasp institutional washout signals and catch the next wave of rebound? Follow me, tomorrow I will break down practical judgment skills to help you navigate the volatility steadily! In the cryptocurrency world, it’s not luck that matters, but understanding and mindset. Want to learn about efficient breakthrough logic and potential coin directions? Follow me @宝叔讲币 , and valuable insights will continue to be delivered!

Breaking! Trump favors Fed chair who wants to 'turn off the tap'? A must-read guide for crypto players to avoid pitfalls

Major reversal! The competition for the Fed chair position has new twists, and the popular candidate backed by Trump plans to shrink quantitative easing (QE) policy—this is the 'lifeblood of funds' for the crypto world, and if the policy shifts, the cryptocurrency market may face severe turbulence!

QE essentially involves the central bank printing money to purchase government bonds, and after a massive influx of funds into the market, a lot of hot money will flow into cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and Ethereum, which has been one of the core drivers of the crypto boom in recent years. During the massive liquidity injection by the Fed in 2020, Bitcoin surged from a few thousand dollars to a peak of $69,000. If we really 'suck the money back' now, market liquidity will tighten, and short-term volatility in the crypto world is inevitable.

In the face of changes, these three survival rules must be remembered:

1. Refuse to go all in, deploy funds in batches: Entering the market with a full position when the situation is unclear is like gambling; splitting funds and buying on dips can help average down costs;

2. Keep a close eye on policy dynamics: Any statements from the Fed before Powell's term ends in May next year could impact the market, so pay more attention to authoritative news and avoid blindly following trends;

3. Focus on valuable coins, steer clear of meme coins: Mainstream cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and Ethereum have stronger risk resistance, while 'meme coins' lacking fundamental support may face zero-risk.

In fact, opportunities are hidden in crises! Currently, inflation is high in the U.S., and if the economy is under pressure, the central bank may be forced to restart easing. In the long run, the core logic of the crypto world remains unchanged, and a pullback may actually be a window for bottom-fishing quality assets.

If you want real-time strategies and data interpretations, follow me at @宝叔讲币 to unlock market trends at the first moment and seize profitable opportunities!