蛋总稳住啊

Following the strongest prediction of the entire network last year, I will make another prediction this year. Because the recent market panic is too serious, I have not analyzed the market for a long time. Today, I will talk about my judgment on the secondary market of altcoins.
At present, the total market value of Bitcoin is in the vicinity of the monthly line ma120. It was mentioned a long time ago that the probability of a successful breakthrough is not high. It is also the position where the altcoin market bull market begins. Therefore, the current market value share of Bitcoin is extremely unfavorable for Bitcoin. Generally speaking, whoever's market value share decreases will be poor. Refer to the market value share trend of Ethereum in Figure 3 and the price performance of Ethereum in the past two years to get a glimpse of it. In addition, the monthly line is in a serious overbought and needs to be adjusted. Therefore, it is expected that Bitcoin will definitely be poor throughout this year, and the altcoin market will usher in the last wave of dividends for retail investors. There will be no more in the future, or it will be difficult, because from the Bitcoin market value share chart (Figure 2), we can see that after the end of this round of altcoin bull market, it will enter the end of the triangle structure, and the shock range will be greatly reduced, which means that there will be no particularly large profit space, and it also means the complete end of the bonus period of the currency circle. $BTC $ETH

A friend asked me, since I was optimistic about the market, why has it dropped?
The size of the market activation depends on the real market situation. The market is dynamic; when the market is in continuous despair, it means more people will sell and short, which also indicates that bulls can lay out more positions. The more positions laid out, the larger the market will become, so after every disaster, there will be many significant opportunities.
From the chart, it can be seen that the main bullish force started building positions significantly from August and has not stopped since. The more goods the bulls consume, the more it rises, so just be patient and wait a bit.

The adjustment is almost over, and the market should continue to rise in a new round.

This market really lacks clever thieves. Seeing that the bitcoin position amount returned to zero after the liquidation, it has rebounded in the past two days. I guess some people think they have entered a safe period and have gone long, with the position amount increasing by about one-third back...

Not long ago, it was mentioned that the contract market position for SOL reached an all-time high, with major players preparing to take action. Recently, the market has experienced a significant liquidation event. As observed in the chart, the position has essentially returned to zero, and it's not just SOL; Bitcoin and Ethereum have also been liquidated simultaneously. It seems that the major players are reaping substantial profits, while those taking the losses are the ones we see showcasing their liquidations on social media. Therefore, I don't believe the market crash was caused by news; rather, it was a targeted and precise surgical slaughter, a purely speculative behavior in the market. That's how contracts work. When the position reaches a certain level, one party will inevitably face a large liquidation, leading to a chain reaction of liquidations. The liquidation price points between traders are interconnected, like setting off firecrackers, and the prices only stop once the complete liquidation is achieved.

I haven't seen a liquidation market in two years, and suddenly facing it feels a bit uncomfortable. The contract market looks completely exploded, and I've been exhausted playing with spot trading these past few months, feeling like I'm carrying a heavy load. It's because those doing contracts are helping us enjoy it. As I said some time ago, the only ones who can make it to the end are the spot traders. Leveraging is a dead end. I'm very optimistic about the market after the liquidation market completely runs its course!

Today is Monday, the new weekly opening has started. The market has experienced a large range of fluctuations over the past two weeks, resulting in a very good liquidation market. Observing the contract market, approximately half of the volume has been liquidated, which can be considered a relatively healthy state. Last week, I mentioned that the volatility of altcoins has already been significant, and there is no need to increase leverage, as it can easily lead to wasted efforts. It is anticipated that the market will frequently see such scenarios after this bullish phase, and ultimately, only spot players will achieve results.

This week's market can be split into two segments for interpretation. The first half of the week, that is, before Thursday, is based on the adjustments following last week's strong market performance. Starting Thursday, there was another upward test of market pressure. Although it was pushed back, major mainstream coins remain in a strong position. As time goes by, it is beneficial for the market to continue advancing upwards. Additionally, the altcoin market itself is very volatile, so it's best to avoid contracts to prevent being liquidated repeatedly and ultimately ending up with nothing.

I will write an analysis of next week's market later

The open positions in sol have reached an all-time high, the last time it was this high was at 10 dollars, there are large investors in the market preparing to take control.

I have seen many people say that Bitcoin's MA120 line has broken down, and many are shouting that a bear market is coming. In the last month, I have reminded that Bitcoin's market cap ratio has reached the peak of this cycle. In simple terms, it means that Bitcoin may rise in the following market but will not surge to become the leader. The market cap ratio of Bitcoin will gradually decline during the later stages of a bull market (Chart 1). Currently, this still aligns with my expectations. Therefore, I personally believe that Bitcoin's current trend does not provide a true direction for the market. Due to the decline in market cap ratio, coupled with the reduction in profit-making effects and changes in the rhythm of the bull market, internal funds in Bitcoin will inevitably withdraw gradually to seek other opportunities. Hence, we can see recently that when Ethereum rises, Bitcoin instead remains stagnant and does not follow Ethereum's rise. When the market adjusts, it falls along with it, creating a situation where it follows the decline but not the rise, which is very normal. As long as the market ensures that it performs better than Bitcoin during good conditions, Bitcoin's market cap ratio will continue to decline. From a larger perspective, Ethereum still has plenty of room left (Chart 2). In a situation where Bitcoin is stagnant, it will at least have to reach around $7,000 to encounter real resistance. From the weekly market cap ratio of Ethereum (Chart 3), it just hits the resistance level of the Vegas channel, which we previously mentioned around the 14 position. Adjusting near the resistance level is a very normal occurrence in technical patterns. Regarding altcoins, as mentioned before, after Ethereum rises, it will be time for the altcoin season, so there is no rush if it hasn't risen yet. These are the larger-scale trends, which do not provide strong guidance for short-term movements. Now, let's talk about short-term matters. Previously, I mentioned that $4,100 for Ethereum is a good position, and an extreme drop to $3,800 would be considered too much. As long as the market's bottom gradually rises, that is sufficient. Later, it dropped to $4,060 and then rose back to set a new high, but it has dropped again in the past few days. From my personal perspective on the market, it is highly likely that it will not break below $4,300, which means that the short-term bottom has already emerged, and I am looking bullish in the future. I am too lazy to type out the specific short-term technical analysis as it's too lengthy, so I'll just state the conclusion.

Previously, we talked about Bitcoin and Ethereum; today, we will focus on altcoins.
To put it simply, our market has a pool of total market capitalization. The more you occupy, the less others will occupy, which means it only adds up to one hundred percent. Therefore, we can see that when Bitcoin's market capitalization percentage is on the rise, other cryptocurrencies are in a state of being half-alive. For easier understanding, we can think of it as Bitcoin's bloodsucking market (Figure 1 shows Bitcoin's bloodsucking during two bullish cycles). Typically, the process of a bull market is that Bitcoin surges first, followed by Ethereum, and after Ethereum's surge, altcoins will follow. The stronger one will have its market capitalization percentage rise. Since there are too many altcoins, we can group all altcoins together to form a single market capitalization percentage for easier observation. Currently, it is an Ethereum strong period, so we can see that Ethereum's market capitalization percentage is on the rise (Figure 2). However, as mentioned at the beginning, the market capitalization percentage only adds up to one hundred percent. The more you occupy, the less others will have. Thus, Bitcoin's market capitalization percentage is beginning to decline (Figure 3). For altcoins, the order in a bull market is: Bitcoin's market capitalization percentage rises (other cryptocurrencies' percentages decline) → Ethereum's market capitalization percentage rises (other coins' market capitalization percentages decline) → altcoins' market capitalization percentage rises (Bitcoin and Ethereum's market capitalization percentages decline). Therefore, what we need to observe now is when Ethereum's market capitalization percentage will reach its peak. From (Figure 4), we can see that in this bull market, Ethereum's market capitalization percentage has broken down, and personally, I believe this round of bull market for Ethereum belongs to a rebound after a breakdown, so there is a high probability that it will not break through the dense area above. Hence, I believe this round of Ethereum's market capitalization percentage will end around 15, and at most it will not exceed 18. Therefore, a significant upward trend for altcoins will occur when Ethereum's market capitalization percentage reaches 15-18, while the bear market will emerge when Bitcoin's market capitalization percentage falls to 40-45. This bull market cycle is very long and slow, requiring more patience.

Ethereum has set a new high ahead of schedule, and the market is much stronger than expected. The market is slowly making new highs amid hesitation, and history is just a cycle of ups and downs. Let's see in a few months if we end up going in circles without gaining anything.

This week's adjustments are coming to an end, next week will be upward.

The market is very wealthy

Yesterday, I mentioned that the current market is not controlled by the main forces, allowing retail investors to freely buy and sell, which has resulted in small fluctuations in the market.
Today, based on my observations, Bitcoin's intraday energy is exceptionally strong. After half a month's consolidation, it has laid a very solid foundation. Among other mainstream coins, Ethereum, which particularly has a large number of retail investors, will amplify the small fluctuations caused by the main forces allowing free trading in the market, while Solana is still forming a bottom pattern against its exchange rate. It is temporarily weak but I am very optimistic about its future performance. Therefore, overall, we must hold our positions in the current market; the cryptocurrency market's shining moments are about to arrive.

Today is Monday, and the market is starting to surge upwards. The trend is chaotic yet orderly. This situation usually indicates that the main funds are no longer controlling the market, allowing it to be driven freely, which leads to a pattern of chaos within order. Additionally, since retail investors are scattered and disorganized, it often feels like the market is fluctuating up and down in small increments. On one hand, retail investors, fearing a crash, are constantly buying and selling. On the other hand, since the main funds are not pushing the market down, it can't decline.

A new week is about to arrive, and this week we mainly observe whether the market can form an upward rotation. Bitcoin's surge is a good signal, and Ethereum is also about to continue reaching new highs. Solana against Ethereum is forming a bottom pattern. There are many highlights this week, which should lead to a series of performances competing for market leadership, making it very suitable for learning.

Tomorrow is Monday, the main workforce is at work

The sun will soon have a main upward wave that needs to be seized, as long as you hold onto the spot, it will be fine.