#美联储降息 Review of the intraday trends of Bitcoin and Ethereum. In the morning, Bitcoin continued to decline. At midnight, it continued to fall, approaching noon, the lowest dropped to 89321 before rebounding, and then it oscillated in a narrow range around 90500. Ethereum's trend synchronized with Bitcoin, which also continued to decline in the morning, reaching a low of 3165 before rebounding.
From the current market perspective, observing the four-hour level, the market has continuously closed with declining candles, falling near the lower boundary. Although there seems to be signs of stabilization, the rebound strength is overall weak, and it has not been able to return above the middle line, indicating that the market is still dominated by bears. Despite some support at the bottom, the rebound shows a significant decrease in strength and lacks sustainability, failing to effectively drive prices away from the low. The current trend remains within the scope of repair.
At the hourly level, the market shows that short-term support remains valid, but the rebound has not formed an effective breakout. Prices have tested lower multiple times but have yet to convert into sustained upward momentum, reflecting insufficient bullish follow-through in the current market, and bullish sentiment remains weak. The current oscillating market is leaning more towards a temporary bear phase, with the overall structure still in a weak consolidation state.
Trading Suggestions
#大饼 can be controlled around 91000 to 91500, with a target of 88000.
The Federal Reserve's meeting again cut interest rates, yet the market fell instead of rising. How should we respond moving forward?
In the early hours, the Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point rate cut, causing Bitcoin to spike up to 94000 before weakening again, currently returning to around 90000. The positive news has turned into negative, which was completely within our expectations. This situation occurred after the last rate cut as well, with a wave of increase before the meeting followed by a decline.
Currently, the situation indicates that the rate cut will only bring a short-term rebound. At present, there is no capital flow on the market as the positive news has been exhausted, and more voices within the Federal Reserve are advocating against rate cuts. Additionally, there is a high probability of only one rate cut next year, and moving forward, the market will likely continue to bear. The market is not afraid of bad news but rather of underwhelming expectations.
The Federal Reserve's forecast this evening is also steadily secured, the target for Bitcoin has been reached, successfully hitting $2000, and the target for Ethereum is also about to hit the first target at $150. I wonder if everyone has kept pace and gotten some profits? Brothers, keep up the pace and enjoy the gains!!!
Currently, the Federal Reserve meeting has concluded, and we have already taken our share. Looking at the current market, the bullish trend is still present, but entering at this position is too aggressive. It would be better to wait until it breaks 3500 to see if it can continue before considering entering.
Entering the cryptocurrency market is like life, with ups and downs being the norm. Don't be greedy, don't be afraid, don't be lazy; steady progress is key, and laughing until the end is the true victory. From the current situation, the 4-hour level shows that the evening's highest point approached the 93200 line, still indicating that there is upward pressure as it continues to enter a correction phase. Currently, it is experiencing a double decline, heading towards the middle track, oscillating around the 91800 line. In the short term, there is still a certain degree of support below. The Bollinger Bands have not changed shape and remain in an upward trend. Looking at the 1-hour level, the Bollinger Bands are in a converging pattern, with short-term volatility decreasing and all three bands showing signs of downward movement. In the short term, we should observe whether the lower band has defensive capabilities; if it breaks down, then downward space will open up. Conversely, if it oscillates around the support point above, the bullish trend will continue. Therefore, before the news comes out in the early morning, it is recommended to focus on the support point above and prioritize buying, with a stop-loss set at the 91500 line.
For Bitcoin, buy above 91500, pay attention to 93500.
For Ethereum, buy near 3300, pay attention to 3400.
From the current market perspective, based on the daily level, yesterday's daily K-line closed positively, continuing the rebound trend after opening. It briefly surged to 94500 before pulling back to 91900 to stop the decline, and then continued to rise slowly, oscillating around 92500. This indicates that the support below is solid, and the bulls have a strong desire to reclaim lost ground.
Now, with the Federal Reserve meeting approaching, a rate cut is already a certainty. Although there have been pullbacks, they are merely adjustments at the bottom, and the upward trend remains clear. In this favorable environment, sufficient confidence has been given to the market, and the main players are actively entering the market. Therefore, our evening operation suggestion is still primarily bullish.
For Bitcoin, consider going long around 91700-92000, focusing on 94500. For the second coin, consider going long around 3310-3320, focusing on 3450.
The prediction for the second cake's direction in the early morning is also steadily secured. Although the consumption is not much, it still focuses on stability. With the interest rate cut approaching, market volatility is high, and returns and risks coexist. It is advisable to primarily adopt a short-wave approach.
Currently, based on the market situation, the daily level shows a continuous upward trend. In the short term, the upward channel formation is intact, and the possibility of continuing the upward trend is higher. Although the hourly line still shows some pullbacks, it belongs to a brief adjustment within the upward trend, without breaking the upward rhythm. There is no obvious resistance above, making long positions a relatively good choice, but it is still necessary to control the position well, set a stop-loss, and avoid good news turning into bad news.
With interest rate cuts imminent, what should we do next?
Currently, the second contract is up 8% on the 24th line, and it is now slowly retracing and hovering between 3360 and 3380. Given the favorable circumstances of interest rate cuts, the increase is within expectations, but there is still resistance above. The first resistance level is around 3400 to 3410. In the short term, a short position can be arranged around 3400, with a target profit set at 3350 and a stop loss around 3415 to prevent a breakout resistance moving upwards.
Based on the key points mentioned above and the current market data, combined with the 4-hour candlestick and MACD indicator performance, the following operational suggestions are provided (Note: Cryptocurrency trading is extremely risky, the following is for technical reference only and does not constitute an investment decision):
1. Long Position Thoughts
1. Entry Conditions: When the price falls to the $3090-$3080 range (first and second support levels), and the MACD red bars continue to expand, and the candlestick shows signs of a bottoming out (such as bullish engulfing or hammer candlestick), a light position can be taken.
2. Target Price: First target $3143.50 (intraday resistance level), second target $3239.90 (stage high point).
3. Stop Loss Level: If it falls below $3080, set the stop loss below $3060 (to avoid the risk of breaking the support level).
2. Short Position Thoughts
1. Entry Conditions: When the price rebounds to $3143.50 (first resistance level) and encounters resistance, and the MACD red bars shorten, and the candlestick shows signs of pressure (such as bearish engulfing or shooting star), a light position can be taken to short.
2. Target Price: First target $3090 (intraday support level), second target $3080 (20-day moving average support).
3. Stop Loss Level: If it breaks above $3150, set the stop loss above $3160 (to avoid getting trapped in a false breakout).
3. Wait-and-See Strategy
If the price fluctuates narrowly around $3100, and the MACD indicator shows no clear direction with shrinking trading volume, it is recommended to maintain a wait-and-see approach, waiting for a breakout of the range before deciding on an operation.