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Wednesday Jin Xin Gold Morning Report: Non-farm Data Shows Mixed Results, Gold Price Fluctuates Around 4300

Key Points

Yesterday, the delayed U.S. non-farm data for October-November presented a 'split' situation, with spot gold first rising to $4334.52 per ounce, then plunging over $30, ultimately oscillating around the key level of $4300. This morning, it maintained a narrow range between $4302-4310, with significant divergence between bulls and bears.

Macroeconomic Data Interpretation

- Non-farm data shows mixed results: In November, the non-farm employment population increased by 64,000, better than the expected 51,000, but the October data was significantly revised down to a decrease of 105,000; the unemployment rate rose to 4.6%, the highest since September 2021, while the average hourly wage in November grew only 0.1% month-over-month, the lowest growth since March 2024.
- Policy expectations slightly adjusted: The data confirms a moderate slowdown in the U.S. labor market, with the CME FedWatch tool showing a rise in the probability of a rate cut in January from 24.4% to 26.6%. The market still expects a cumulative rate cut of about 59 basis points by 2026, with a low interest rate environment supporting gold prices in the long term.
- Consumer data shows divergence: The core retail sales in October grew 0.8% month-over-month, far exceeding expectations, indicating consumer resilience and temporarily alleviating concerns about economic deterioration, limiting the Federal Reserve's scope for urgent easing.

Technical Analysis

- Key price levels: Resistance above at $4320 (short-term strong-weak divide), $4350 (double top pressure level); support below at $4300 (psychological level), $4285 (yesterday's low), $4270 (key support range).
- Trend judgment: The gold price is currently in a high-level oscillation pattern, with a clear double top formation around $4350. Caution is advised for direction selection after oscillation before breaking through key ranges.

Trading Strategy Suggestions

- Short-term operations: If it stabilizes above $4300 and breaks above $4320 during the day, a light position can be taken to pursue long positions aiming for $4330-4340; if it breaks below $4300 or fails to reach $4340, a short position can be taken with a target of $4280-4270.
- Risk control: After the non-farm data, market volatility increases; strictly control positions with stop-loss set outside the key support/resistance levels by 3-5 points; data noise still exists, avoid heavy bets on a single direction.
- Focus points: Today, pay close attention to the oscillation rhythm of the U.S. dollar index, and subsequently track U.S. CPI and PCE data to further confirm inflation and policy direction.

Tonight at 21:30, the United States will jointly release the non-farm payroll report for October - November. This "enhanced" data is key to determining the future trend of spot gold, and different data results will lead to completely different trends in gold prices.

Weak data (new jobs below 20,000 - 30,000, unemployment rate rising above 4.5%): Gold is expected to gain strong upward momentum, likely breaking through the resistance zone of 4350 - 4380, and may even hit the range of 4400 - 4450 later.

Data in line with expectations (approximately 50,000 new jobs in November, unemployment rate maintaining at 4.4%): Gold prices will fluctuate around the range of 4300 - 4350. At this time, it is necessary to combine the concurrently released retail sales data for a comprehensive judgment, making it difficult to have a clear one-sided direction overall.

Strong data (new jobs exceeding 100,000): The risk of a price correction for gold increases sharply, possibly falling below the 5-day line support of 4285, further probing down to the range of 4250 - 4260 USD, and in extreme cases, could touch 4240.

Evening operation suggestions: Before the data is released, it is recommended to watch more and act less, and strictly control positions. After the data is released, one should wait for the first wave of fluctuations to end, and then operate according to the breakout situation of key ranges, avoiding blindly chasing up or selling down.

The market fluctuations in the early morning showed some volatility. The previous target of 4180 was precisely reached, and the position has been successfully closed. The subsequent market quickly rebounded, and if there are no surprises, it is still driven by news.

Currently, gold is fluctuating around 4240, in a relatively high range for this week. It has clearly stated in the early morning that further upward movement is not favored, and this position is an excellent opportunity to layout short positions!

It is recommended to enter short positions around 4240 and above, with the initial target at 4220, and further down to around 4200, while managing risks appropriately.

Winning Streak

US Dollar + Gold Today's Script: Wait for the Federal Reserve to Fire the Starting Gun, First 'Perform a Small Play' in the Range
Yesterday the US dollar closed up, but 99 is a 'high-pressure line'—if it doesn't stabilize, don't talk about a reversal; gold's daily chart shows two doji candles that seem unable to wake up from sleep, the Federal Reserve's announcement early Thursday is the main event, for now, let's follow the range: 4195 is the central axis of the stage, if it stands above, the bulls add drama, if it breaks below, the bears fill in the shots.

Divided into three acts:

1. Morning Surge Scene: If it first touches 4205-4210, directly light up and go short, set a stop loss above the new high, target first looks at 4185, then further down to 4170;
2. Pullback Ambush Scene: If it first drops to 4184 or yesterday's low, secretly enter long, set a stop loss below 4160, first look back at 4195, then push to 4210-4220;
3. Breakout Continuation Scene: If it stabilizes above 4195 with increased volume, let the bullets fly 10-20 ticks to above 4230, then place a second short, stop loss at 4245, target the pullback to 4200-4180.

Out-of-Scope Plot: If it really drops to 4147 this deep pit, close your eyes and pick up longs, with a stop loss of just 30 cents, this risk-reward ratio is like picking up money for free.

Remember: Don't chase trades during the day, don't hold overnight, wait for the interest rate decision to flip the table and then discuss the trend.

Look at our gold operations, there's just one word: stable!\nRecently, during this wave of gold market, I've been focusing on short positions, consistently profiting from 4260 downwards. Whether it’s around 4300 or near 4000, every position I open is spot on. This profit is rolling up like a snowball, and in less than a month, I've directly pocketed nearly 100,000!\nThis market feels like it's just sending us money, the rhythm is perfectly in sync, and even with my eyes closed, as long as I follow the trend, I can make a profit. Just tell me, isn't this operation impressive?

During the early trading session of the Golden Week, the overall fluctuation range was very small, with prices oscillating around 4200.
On Saturday, Kui mentioned that as long as the gold price does not fall below the key level of 4170, the upward trend remains.
Currently, short-term focus can be on the support at 4190. In the early session, buying long positions directly near 4190 is advisable, and a bit more aggressively, one can enter around 4200. The target can initially be set at 4220$ZEC $ALLO #ETH走势分析 #亚洲家族办公室加密资产配置 .

Recent practical operation!
Wherever there is gold, it will shine. No matter which market, it can continue to shine and heat up, making infinite progress! #币安区块链周 #美联储重启降息步伐 #特朗普加密新政

Recently working on gold, if needed, you can private message me or see the main leaf $ZEC $ALLO #美联储重启降息步伐 #ETH走势分析 #RWA总规模持续增长

October Trading Plan: All 10 Participants Achieved a 10x Growth from 10K to 100K! For friends who still can't understand trends, blindly resist orders, and rely on luck in trading, opportunities are always reserved for those who are prepared. We do not seek to get rich quickly, but rather accumulate compound interest through stable daily profits, gradually approaching the 10x target.
Due to limited energy, only 5 spots will be available in December:
Short-term: 2 spots (threshold 5000 - 15000)
Swing: 2 spots (threshold 30000)
Long-term: 1 spot (threshold 50000)
Daily layout for short-term within 3000 space, swing outside 5000 space, and long-term with a space of 10,000 points, targeting a 5 - 10x trading growth. Those with dreams and determination, let's embark on this journey together! $ZEC $ALLO #加密市场反弹 #ETH走势分析 #加密市场观察 #特朗普加密新政

SOL is right again!!!!$SOL $ZEC #币安HODLer空投AT #加密市场反弹 #ETH走势分析 #美联储重启降息步伐

The BNB market strategy is very simple, it all depends on how you execute it $BNB $ZEC #加密市场反弹 #加密市场观察 #ETH走势分析 #ETH走势分析

Every time it reaches Friday or Sunday night, there is bound to be a major market movement. Who has been liquidated this time? $ZEC $ALLO #币安HODLer空投AT #加密市场反弹 #美联储重启降息步伐 #ETH走势分析

The market orders from last night are still available, you can take a look at them $ZEC $ALLO #币安HODLer空投AT #美联储重启降息步伐 #加密市场反弹 #ETH走势分析

12.1 Morning Analysis Suggestions

The current price of Bitcoin is around 87,000. It has fluctuated for two days over the weekend, leading to a drop from around 92,000 last night down to 97,000. Everything has a traceable pattern. I mentioned before that the market would reach 93,000, and conveniently, that day was Friday, also known as Black Friday. Now the market is simple; after such a significant drop, it needs to correct itself. Just be bullish.

Suggestions:
Buy Bitcoin around 86,500-87,500, targeting 89,000-90,000.
Buy Ethereum around 2,800-2,780, targeting 3,000-3,020. #币安HODLer空投AT #加密市场反弹 #加密市场观察 #ETH走势分析 #美联储重启降息步伐

There is a very foolish method of trading cryptocurrencies that has nearly 99.99% profitability. $RECALL
1️⃣ Open the daily chart, only look at the daily level, and select the cryptocurrencies where the MACD shows a golden cross, preferably choosing those that cross above the zero line, as this has the best effect!
2️⃣ Switch to the daily level; here you only need to look at one moving average, called the daily moving average, hold above the line and sell below it.
3️⃣ After buying, if the cryptocurrency price breaks through the daily moving average and the volume is also above the daily moving average, buy in full. As for the fourth selling point, this is divided into three details: the first is the wave increase, when it exceeds 40%, sell 1/3 of the overall position. The second is the overall wave increase, when it exceeds 80%, sell 1/3 again. If it falls below the daily moving average, clear all positions.
4️⃣ This is also the most important step. Since we are using the daily moving average as our buying basis, if an unexpected situation occurs the next day and it directly falls below, you must sell everything without harboring any delusions! Although the probability of it breaking through using our method is very low! We still need to be risk-aware! After selling, wait for it to rise above the daily moving average again and then buy back!
Follow Daisen, no boasting, no empty promises, just sharing practical experiences that can help you survive in the circle. The team still has positions, whether to follow depends on you? #

I heard that MicroStrategy might be making a big splash!\nThe CEO made a statement saying that if the mNAV drops below 1, they would consider selling Bitcoin. This is something that everyone has thought about before; we've discussed what circumstances could lead to trouble, crashes, or market dumps for companies dealing in cryptocurrencies and stocks.\nCurrently, the mNAV is around 1.13. If the situation worsens, it's very likely that both cryptocurrency prices and stock prices will drop together, leading to an endless cycle of decline. MicroStrategy holds so much Bitcoin, if they really start selling, it could definitely create a huge storm!