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#代币化热潮

$giggle 是之前还没有上线bn的时候最看好的一个meme之一，当时为什么看好呢？

属于慈善的meme，并且项目方也一直在捐款办事，并且cz也一直去互动发文狂奶，所以当时觉得很大概率会上线币安的现货与合约，结果也如我所料上线了合约与现货，并且也在这个上面小有盈利！

自从上了二级之后就没怎么去特别关注了，今天又来看了看，觉得这个币种后市发展反倒已经到顶了，最近一段时间以来很多叙事很强的币种基本上都已经跌到谷底，而giggle还在徘徊，所以等待一个做空的机会出来，总觉得这个币还要去50以下！

用时间来验证吧！

本周信息面：  

12.1（周一）：美10月PPI、Q3 PCE 
12.3（周三）：美11月ADP就业人数 
12.4（周四）：美周申请救济金人数 
12.5（周五）：美9月PCE数据  

ps：每月的首周一般波动较大，保守进攻，注意风控。一年12个月里每个月1-5号（最迟到7号）之间基本都有个大跌,预计12.4左右有个大跌。今早的大跌不包括在内。所以今天的节奏是先博个反弹多，然后空。

币安为$CHESS $DENT $DF CHST SXP添加观察标签，这几个币未来大概率是要下架了

不过目前这个行情资金想要炒作的话也只能炒作垃圾币了，之前的羊驼，BAKE这些加入标签和下架的时候都疯狂炒作了一波，这两个都是BSC系

今天在加入观察标签的这几个山寨只有CHESS是BSC系，并且从高位已经跌了99%，最后估计还是会有一波死猫弹跳诈尸行情的，只不过这种币也不敢重仓搞，所以也只能当作彩票赚赚小钱。

耐心等待12月4号以太升级
这也是为什么短期ETH强于BTC的原因
接下来12月份的行情应该不错
ETH升级➕炒作美联储降息
所以上半个月行情应该反弹为主
ETH多单继续持有，到了12月4号再看

The "late realization of the end of the bull market" is the reason why 90% of investors lose money! Typically, there are 3 clear signals, but this time in 2025 is different!

The first is retail frenzy: trending searches dominate, account openings surge, even relatives who don't invest are asking about trading cryptocurrencies;

The second is FOMO buying after a crash: when prices drop 10-20%, some shout "healthy correction", and the screen is filled with bottom-fishing and increasing positions;

The third is institutional withdrawal + shrinking trading volume: a decrease in large addresses, slowing ETF inflows, and project teams becoming inactive.

But this time is special: signals 1 and 2 have not appeared at all (no nationwide frenzy, and no retail investors crazily bottom-fishing), the core is that the 2025 bull market is driven by institutions, most transactions are in OTC, and it is tied to US stocks without ecological innovation. So there is no need to wait for the first two signals; institutional withdrawal + shrinking volume is the most critical turning signal!

Last night was uneventful as well, with the market continuing to expect a high of 84.7% for a rate cut in December. Market sentiment is slowly improving, and SOL has already started to rise.

Tonight is Black Friday, and it's only half a day, so I don't think there will be any new tricks. It still needs to be repaired. Prices are maintained at support levels of 83-87, even above those starting with 9, as shown in the URPD data.

As long as there is no crackdown on the rate cut expectations, it should be able to pass steadily. However, fluctuations are unavoidable. Then next Monday is December, and the end of QT is coming, which can be considered a positive for market sentiment.
Let's look forward to new signals of trend recovery, although it may not be that fast.

I have been tracking ZEC during this time, to the point that I missed the breakout orders for Bitcoin and Ethereum.

However, it seems like there is a bit of a gradual breakthrough.

It is still a target that needs to be closely monitored in the coming period.
Image

The short-term market is a rebound, not a reversal

I think the upcoming market will either enter a short-term bear market or resemble a 'monkey market' like the U.S. stock market in the 1970s, with large fluctuations and big shocks, but without a clear trend. In fact, BTC no longer has a bear market in the strict sense of dropping more than 80%; altcoins have always been in a bear market, so discussing bull and bear markets is not very meaningful.

I mainly look at two points.

First point: The decline after October 6 has been too fast and too large, with basically no resistance.
A drop of 35% in a month and a half is actually rare in history. There was one in April 2021, one in March 12, and those ancient bears in 2018 and 2019, but relatively speaking, such a continuous decline over a month and a half is uncommon.
So don't talk to me about macro factors, interest rate cuts, balance sheet expansions, liquidity, and so on; I've never liked analyzing the reasons for price changes after the fact. Such things are not useful for trading itself. A strong market is strong, and a weak market is weak; just look at the performance.

Second point: The performance after breaking new highs this year has been disappointing.
This year, BTC has broken historical highs 5 times, but the performance in the days following each breakthrough has been poor.
Generally speaking, when breaking the ATH, it is usually the time when market sentiment is at its peak. If it is a real bull market, it should not be pushed back below the breakout point a few days after the breakthrough. This year, apart from the July breakthrough at 112K, which was somewhat decent, the others basically lost momentum right after breaking through, unable to even hold the high positions.

If you compare it with the performance of a true bull market, like the genuinely strong market in November this year:
On November 6, after breaking 73860, it did not retrace to the breakout price for several consecutive weeks; this is what we call a bull market.
But what about this year's several major breakthroughs? Basically, it's breakout - retreat - fall through, a continuous sequence of actions that completely does not resemble a trending market.

Based on these two reasons, my current judgment is very simple:
The possibility of entering a violent bull market this year is low; it looks more like a sideways or even slightly weak rhythm. Just wait for a clear signal to act; in this environment, impulsiveness is basically equivalent to giving away money.

Employee: It's reached 28, should we cut it?
Leader: Go ahead, we can't pull it anymore.
Employee: Okay, finishing the harvest.
Leader: How's the performance?
Employee: Not as expected.
Leader: Clear the K-line and cut it again.
Employee: Is that possible? We can only delete the K-line from our own platform; we can't delete CMC and the K-line on the chain.
Leader: You don't understand, there will always be new investors getting tricked, and some old investors who think they can run fast.
Employee: Learned that, the K-line has been deleted and recalibrated to 0.1, starting the second round of this harvest.

Today, most altcoins have not followed the rise, after all, this is not the time for the main players to act. Altcoins are scared of the downturn and do not dare to act recklessly without a clear signal of a market reversal.

Most old coins on CEX are still lying at historical lows, with no signs of improvement. I have mentioned before that if there really is an altcoin season later, it is likely to be the last wave of opportunity, and those who can switch to mainstream should try to do so. Future market conditions will definitely become more polarized, so don't hold onto worthless coins waiting for miracles.
Personal opinion, for reference only
Reading 80,
South Korea ,43 minutes ago

An old cycle has ended, and after this round of decline, a new cycle begins. Before the new cycle, Bitcoin ancient whales made too much profit and have been continuously selling. Multiple ancient whales have sold out, and early participants in the ICO of ETH, including whales from distributed capital, have mostly liquidated as well. After the new cycle begins, without these profit-taking positions, the market will feel much lighter.

The previous whales had a BTC cost of $1000, while the current whales, which include various institutions, have a BTC cost of $80,000.

The development of an upward trend requires sharp fluctuations to complete the washout and turnover. No pain, no gain!

In a bear market, only invest in BTC through dollar-cost averaging, but keep some capital on hand to prevent a drop to $80,000. Remember, no one can perfectly time the bottom, and it may still fall after buying the dip; we can only grasp the overall direction.

$ETH This pullback is no longer just a small level shake; it has directly upgraded to a daily level rebound, and the daily golden cross has officially emerged. Therefore, in determining the rebound high points, we can no longer use the small short-term range, but must use the two key positions of 3658 on the 11th of this month and 2620 on the 21st to measure.

Currently, the three target ranges for the rebound are very clear:

① 3016 range
Close to the 2-day EMA7 of 3008, where is the first level of pressure.
The corresponding pressure zone is at 3050 / 3072.

② 3139 range
Aligning with the 1-day BOLL middle track, the pressure is around 3130 / 3150.

③ 3261 range
This segment is almost equal to the strongest extension of the rebound, corresponding to the 5-day EMA7 pressure zone of 3262 / 3280.

Yesterday, the 5-day MACD just gave a stop-loss signal, but it has only just emerged, and the strength has not yet reached a trend level. So overall: after breaking 3000, this strongest rebound upward will at most reach the 3260 level. Beyond that, it is not a rebound but a reversal, and the conditions are still insufficient.

The market value of wojak has actually exceeded 40 million. Now I'm even more reluctant to chase after it. I was still hesitant to buy when it was over 10 million. It's too strong.

MON went online and has been declining ever since. The current price is in a state of oversold rebound, having rebounded nearly twice in the short term, ranking first in the increase list. In terms of pattern, after breaking below the rectangle, the price began to show signs of stopping the decline, followed by a rapid rebound of nearly twice.

The current price has returned to the rectangular range, with attention on the lower edge around 0.038. If it does not break below, it is likely to continue to rebound upwards. Currently, it seems that the low-level chips have been mostly collected, and it is obvious that the market manipulators have started to take action, with the contract positions continuously increasing. The short-term outlook remains bullish.

Last night, after the U.S. stock market opened, NVIDIA plummeted by 7% at one point, but later it rebounded strongly. I watched the market and found that the BTC candlestick chart almost completely followed NVIDIA's movement, and this morning Bitcoin's performance was particularly strong.

However, I still think this surge is the main force drawing lines and enticing the crowd. The short position I opened yesterday morning had a significant unrealized profit at one point, but unfortunately, it was pulled back later, and I had to exit at the original price, basically breaking even after deducting fees. Today's strategy remains unchanged: continue to monitor high points and short with a light position, betting that it won't break above 90,000. #加密市场反弹

BSC's土狗 #memecoin still relies on 二圣 and #ALPHA to drive it!

Today on Binance, ALPHA launched a $BNBHolder and #恶俗企鹅, BSC's土狗 is like celebrating the New Year

Yesterday, I was still complaining about the #meme on BSC being a dead zone, all in tens of thousands, this ALPHA came, and all the charts changed like they received a traffic light signal, instantly turning red to green

I estimate that many players have switched to the SOL chain these days due to the bear market, and some small hot projects on the SOL chain indeed have better liquidity than BSC

Big Brother can’t sit still, the Chinese projects painstakingly built in this round cannot just go to waste, it’s necessary to set the pace

However, speaking of which, ALPHA should be the ultimate favorable method at this stage, I made nearly 6 times on #恶俗企鹅 and sold all 8 million without leaving a single one

If BSC wants to rise again this time, the old projects must not have sustainability, adding a few new projects to raise the launch limit is the right path

When hitting dogs, one must not be greedy, especially in a bear market, once enough is eaten, clear the warehouse and keep the bullets ready for the next golden dog!