爱理财的小羊a
有爱人！爱理财的小羊本人！卖鸡爪2个亿的男人！新能源之王！羊盛集团！星球兽董事长！滕州奈雪的茶老板。
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Next, we enter a phase of significant depreciation of the US dollar and substantial appreciation of the Chinese yuan. This is merely a change in exchange rates, and China will greatly narrow the GDP gap with the United States.
By 2025, China's GDP is expected to account for about 63% of the US GDP, with the peak period being in 2021, when China's GDP accounted for as much as 77% of the US. In recent years, as the Federal Reserve has raised interest rates, the US dollar has appreciated against the yuan, widening the GDP gap between China and the US again.
Starting from 2026 until 2030, this phase will be one where China once again narrows the gap with the United States. I expect that by 2030, China's share of US GDP will reach 85-90%. The true surpassing is expected to occur during the 2035-2040 period, when China will officially establish its position as the world's largest economy.
By 2025, China's GDP is expected to account for about 63% of the US GDP, with the peak period being in 2021, when China's GDP accounted for as much as 77% of the US. In recent years, as the Federal Reserve has raised interest rates, the US dollar has appreciated against the yuan, widening the GDP gap between China and the US again.
Starting from 2026 until 2030, this phase will be one where China once again narrows the gap with the United States. I expect that by 2030, China's share of US GDP will reach 85-90%. The true surpassing is expected to occur during the 2035-2040 period, when China will officially establish its position as the world's largest economy.
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我认为，到28、29年左右，中国经济会再次进入通胀过热周期，这是实体最好赚钱的阶段。到时候央行为了抑制通胀，将会效仿22年的美联储，开启加息。
很多人在中国进入短暂通缩阶段的时候，说中国将进入日本失去的三十年，这是绝无可能的。首先中国是独立自主的全球大国，可以自己掌控自己的命运，而非日本那种被阉割的国家。其次中国的资源力、创新力、产业力等诸多方面，都绝非日本可比。
因此中国将在短暂的3-4年通缩之后，再次进入通胀向上的周期，这次的目标只有一个，那就是直指美国，平起平坐。
很多人在中国进入短暂通缩阶段的时候，说中国将进入日本失去的三十年，这是绝无可能的。首先中国是独立自主的全球大国，可以自己掌控自己的命运，而非日本那种被阉割的国家。其次中国的资源力、创新力、产业力等诸多方面，都绝非日本可比。
因此中国将在短暂的3-4年通缩之后，再次进入通胀向上的周期，这次的目标只有一个，那就是直指美国，平起平坐。
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The main source of income for an individual or a family generally consists of four parts. The first is labor income, commonly known as wages. The second is property income, which refers to income from financial assets such as real estate, stocks, and funds. The third is operational income, which is the income generated from running a business or store. The fourth is transfer income, which is the income obtained through inheritance, gifts, etc.
For many of us, our income consists only of the first item, which we commonly refer to as 'dead wages,' making it certainly difficult to reverse income trends. Most people do not have the third and fourth types of income. What should we do at this point? We can only increase the allocation of property income. Now that the real estate market is dead, you can only invest in the stock market; this is an inevitable choice.
For many of us, our income consists only of the first item, which we commonly refer to as 'dead wages,' making it certainly difficult to reverse income trends. Most people do not have the third and fourth types of income. What should we do at this point? We can only increase the allocation of property income. Now that the real estate market is dead, you can only invest in the stock market; this is an inevitable choice.
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关于消费、收入的循环，很多人坚持工资先上涨，消费才能回暖的观点。但是如果你的公司盈利不反转，你的工资又如何上涨？
这就回到先有蛋，还是先有鸡的问题。那到底是先涨工资？还是先涨物价？必然是先涨物价，如果物价不涨，工资就永远不可能上涨，因为你的老板都赚不到钱，他拿什么给你涨工资？
这就回到先有蛋，还是先有鸡的问题。那到底是先涨工资？还是先涨物价？必然是先涨物价，如果物价不涨，工资就永远不可能上涨，因为你的老板都赚不到钱，他拿什么给你涨工资？
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This brings us back to another question: how can income increase? It must not be through wage income, but rather through the increase in property income, which will drive up total assets. The increase in property income will inevitably be realized through the rise of the stock market.
In other words, to drive up prices and get out of deflation, the only way forward is to amplify financial assets. The stock market rises first, followed by a recovery in the real economy, and finally wage increases; this is certainly the order.
If your income solely depends on wages, then you can only be a follower. What to do? You can only increase the allocation of property income, allowing this leading horse to help you break free from the mire.
In other words, to drive up prices and get out of deflation, the only way forward is to amplify financial assets. The stock market rises first, followed by a recovery in the real economy, and finally wage increases; this is certainly the order.
If your income solely depends on wages, then you can only be a follower. What to do? You can only increase the allocation of property income, allowing this leading horse to help you break free from the mire.
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For consumer stocks, this is the darkest moment, but for consumers, this is the most enjoyable stage, as prices are at their lowest point in recent years.
If the stock market can reach a new high before the Spring Festival as I expect, I suggest everyone take some profits and spend freely; this year, spending money feels especially good. By the Spring Festival of 2027, you will find that prices are much higher than before the Spring Festival of 2026. I expect that the second half of 2026 will begin to enter a mild inflation phase.
If the stock market can reach a new high before the Spring Festival as I expect, I suggest everyone take some profits and spend freely; this year, spending money feels especially good. By the Spring Festival of 2027, you will find that prices are much higher than before the Spring Festival of 2026. I expect that the second half of 2026 will begin to enter a mild inflation phase.
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另外明年还将大范围上涨的，还有电脑，主要是存储涨价太厉害了。目前无论是内存条还是硬盘存储，价格都在大幅上涨。
想升级电脑的，可以年前换新机了。
想升级电脑的，可以年前换新机了。
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A prediction can be made that home appliance prices will rise significantly next year, especially for air conditioners. This is due to the sharp increase in copper prices, and with aluminum replacing copper, the quality of air conditioners will also decline. Therefore, for those looking to buy air conditioners, take advantage of the current off-season, and since the rise in copper prices has not yet been transmitted, quickly stock up on a few units. By next summer, I expect air conditioner prices to rise at least 20% or more.
Car prices will also hit a bottom and rebound because both copper and aluminum prices will reach new highs next year, and with battery prices also expected to rise next year, the current car prices can be seen as the lowest point in recent years.
This further confirms the principle that deflation is a good time to spend money. Once the economy fully turns to inflation, a comprehensive rise in prices is inevitable.
Car prices will also hit a bottom and rebound because both copper and aluminum prices will reach new highs next year, and with battery prices also expected to rise next year, the current car prices can be seen as the lowest point in recent years.
This further confirms the principle that deflation is a good time to spend money. Once the economy fully turns to inflation, a comprehensive rise in prices is inevitable.
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The long-term fluctuations of the copper-aluminum ratio are driven by supply and demand as well as policies. The core turning points over the past 40 years include:
2001 (Parity point): The ratio approached 1:1 due to weak copper demand after the internet bubble, the expansion of China's electrolytic aluminum capacity, and aluminum initially replacing copper in low-end manufacturing (such as packaging), but not on a large scale.
2010 (Historical peak): The ratio reached 4.2, driven by infrastructure investment in China boosting copper demand, while the surplus in aluminum supply eased, with aluminum prices increasing by 17.2% in a single month, marking the strongest period for relative aluminum returns.
2025 (Reaching a high again): The ratio rises to 4, primarily due to explosive demand from the new energy industry (electric vehicles, photovoltaics) driving up copper prices, while the cap on China's electrolytic aluminum capacity (45 million tons/year) limits supply, compounded by the "dual carbon" policy increasing aluminum costs. Currently, we have undoubtedly entered a bull market for electrolytic aluminum.
2001 (Parity point): The ratio approached 1:1 due to weak copper demand after the internet bubble, the expansion of China's electrolytic aluminum capacity, and aluminum initially replacing copper in low-end manufacturing (such as packaging), but not on a large scale.
2010 (Historical peak): The ratio reached 4.2, driven by infrastructure investment in China boosting copper demand, while the surplus in aluminum supply eased, with aluminum prices increasing by 17.2% in a single month, marking the strongest period for relative aluminum returns.
2025 (Reaching a high again): The ratio rises to 4, primarily due to explosive demand from the new energy industry (electric vehicles, photovoltaics) driving up copper prices, while the cap on China's electrolytic aluminum capacity (45 million tons/year) limits supply, compounded by the "dual carbon" policy increasing aluminum costs. Currently, we have undoubtedly entered a bull market for electrolytic aluminum.
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Another aspect worth noting is the copper-aluminum ratio. When the gold-silver ratio is too high, silver has a strong substitutive effect on gold, primarily due to its financial attributes. When the copper-aluminum ratio is too high, aluminum has a strong substitutive effect on copper, mainly due to its industrial attributes.
When the copper-aluminum ratio exceeds 3.5, the cost-performance advantage of aluminum becomes prominent, especially in areas such as power transmission (like cables), household appliance radiators, and new energy vehicle wiring harnesses. Companies can reduce material costs by 20%-30% through "aluminum replacing copper"; for example, a single vehicle wiring harness can save 800 yuan in costs.
Currently, the copper-aluminum price ratio is about 3.9:1, exceeding the economic substitution critical point of 3.5, which will significantly drive the substitution demand for aluminum in fields such as power cables, household appliances, and automobile manufacturing.
When the copper-aluminum ratio exceeds 3.5, the cost-performance advantage of aluminum becomes prominent, especially in areas such as power transmission (like cables), household appliance radiators, and new energy vehicle wiring harnesses. Companies can reduce material costs by 20%-30% through "aluminum replacing copper"; for example, a single vehicle wiring harness can save 800 yuan in costs.
Currently, the copper-aluminum price ratio is about 3.9:1, exceeding the economic substitution critical point of 3.5, which will significantly drive the substitution demand for aluminum in fields such as power cables, household appliances, and automobile manufacturing.
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Last night, the international spot price of silver once again set a new historical high, approaching the 70-dollar mark I predicted earlier.
Where is the endpoint of this round of silver bull market? I predict it might reach 100 dollars. When the gold-silver ratio exceeded 90 in the first half of the year, I believed there was significant room for silver to catch up. In the second half of the year, silver experienced strong catch-up, breaking through the 40, 50, and 60 dollar levels, now rushing towards 70 dollars.
Ultimately, the gold-silver ratio is likely to reach 50, which means gold at 5000 dollars and silver at 100 dollars.
Where is the endpoint of this round of silver bull market? I predict it might reach 100 dollars. When the gold-silver ratio exceeded 90 in the first half of the year, I believed there was significant room for silver to catch up. In the second half of the year, silver experienced strong catch-up, breaking through the 40, 50, and 60 dollar levels, now rushing towards 70 dollars.
Ultimately, the gold-silver ratio is likely to reach 50, which means gold at 5000 dollars and silver at 100 dollars.
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Clocktower Chief Strategist Wang Kaiwen stated that the fiscal expansion of major Western economies and the eventual path to debt monetization will continue to erode the credit of fiat currencies. The current market pricing of the likelihood of a return to the gold standard remains relatively low, and the foundation for a long-term bull market in gold still exists.
He believes that, from a perspective of technical breakthroughs and market capitalization capacity, silver has greater potential for price increases compared to gold, and pointed out that if turmoil occurs in the global bond market, a substantial amount of funds seeking safe-haven assets may ultimately push central banks towards the silver market.
He believes that, from a perspective of technical breakthroughs and market capitalization capacity, silver has greater potential for price increases compared to gold, and pointed out that if turmoil occurs in the global bond market, a substantial amount of funds seeking safe-haven assets may ultimately push central banks towards the silver market.
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I expect copper prices to break through $15,000 in the future, while the current London copper price is close to $12,000. Shanghai copper is currently at 94,000, and is expected to break through 120,000 in the future. Copper and aluminum are both electrical metals, and we are entering a super cycle for electricity.
This time, driven by the rapid growth of global electricity demand due to AI, both copper and aluminum will enter a super cycle. In this bull market for non-ferrous metals, the levels of copper and aluminum will be higher than gold and silver, while lithium will have the highest level.
Gold, silver, copper, aluminum, lithium; the levels increase as we go further.
This time, driven by the rapid growth of global electricity demand due to AI, both copper and aluminum will enter a super cycle. In this bull market for non-ferrous metals, the levels of copper and aluminum will be higher than gold and silver, while lithium will have the highest level.
Gold, silver, copper, aluminum, lithium; the levels increase as we go further.
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Tonight, aluminum in New York and London both set new stage highs, and next week the little fairy is expected to reach new highs again.
Recently, due to the rise in copper prices, the home appliance industry has been promoting "aluminum instead of copper." Nineteen air conditioning companies, including Haier, Midea, Xiaomi, and Hisense, jointly signed the "Self-Discipline Convention of the Air Conditioning Aluminum Reinforcement Application Research Working Group," vigorously promoting the "aluminum instead of copper" technology.
In the future, the demand for aluminum will be very strong, and aluminum prices will continue to reach new highs. I expect that this round of cycles will see Shanghai aluminum break the 26000 barrier.
Recently, due to the rise in copper prices, the home appliance industry has been promoting "aluminum instead of copper." Nineteen air conditioning companies, including Haier, Midea, Xiaomi, and Hisense, jointly signed the "Self-Discipline Convention of the Air Conditioning Aluminum Reinforcement Application Research Working Group," vigorously promoting the "aluminum instead of copper" technology.
In the future, the demand for aluminum will be very strong, and aluminum prices will continue to reach new highs. I expect that this round of cycles will see Shanghai aluminum break the 26000 barrier.
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Previously locked in lithium iron phosphate, now we are starting to lock in lithium carbonate. Why lock in long positions? It is certainly because future supply will begin to tighten.
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闭关了三天，正好跟微博群的人，做个仔细的交流，解答一下大家的疑问，明确一下方向和预期，感觉挺好。
群有没有含金量，我相信群里的人自然知道。这样一个免费的交流群，价值比大多数收费的群都要强的多。最后还有60席，满了就关门，不会再有新的群，因为精力有限。
群有没有含金量，我相信群里的人自然知道。这样一个免费的交流群，价值比大多数收费的群都要强的多。最后还有60席，满了就关门，不会再有新的群，因为精力有限。
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停更的主要目的，是打击搬运工，这是说的好听点，说的不好听就是剽窃。我自己就经常在头条和小红书上看到抄袭，甚至还有人搬到自己的社群，搞收费，这种就太无耻了。
其次是筛选志同道合的人，有人会劝要大度，不要计较，这种人就是站着说话不腰疼。你信不信他要是无缘无故被人攻击了，他跳的比谁都高。劝别人大度的时候，问问自己，是不是一个大度的人？
其次是筛选志同道合的人，有人会劝要大度，不要计较，这种人就是站着说话不腰疼。你信不信他要是无缘无故被人攻击了，他跳的比谁都高。劝别人大度的时候，问问自己，是不是一个大度的人？
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还有些人喜欢到我面前来当马后炮，显摆自己多厉害，我老实说，就别丢人现眼了。就大周期的研究来说，我算是顶级水平。这不是我自负，自己出去溜达一圈，把所谓的财经博主挨个看一遍，就知道我是什么水平。
我是非常讨厌有些人非常善变，对的时候就在那里装哑巴，稍微有点差池就跳的老高，你真以为你比我强吗？你试试开个微博，公开发表观点给大家看看，信不信你早就被骂死了？
我是非常讨厌有些人非常善变，对的时候就在那里装哑巴，稍微有点差池就跳的老高，你真以为你比我强吗？你试试开个微博，公开发表观点给大家看看，信不信你早就被骂死了？
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Japan's interest rate hike has been implemented, updates are resuming.
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Today, Weibo continues to stop updates, sharing only within the group. There are currently 888 people in the Weibo Gold粉2 group.
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