浩永说趋势

Friends who just entered the circle must be feeling restless lately: positions are glowing green, the K-line is heading downwards, and U.S. stocks are also weakening in sync. Is the crypto market about to repeat the 'black swan'? As an analyst who has been deeply involved in the industry for 8 years, let me directly point out the key issue: this wave of decline is not due to problems with the project's fundamentals, but rather a liquidity crisis triggered by the U.S. government's 'shutdown'. The rush to cut losses is the real pitfall!
Many people only see the market decline but do not understand the underlying funding logic: The two parties in the U.S. are deadlocked, and the government has been shut down for 37 days, tying the historical record. In the absence of funds, the Treasury can only 'siphon' from the market to save itself, having drawn nearly $700 billion over the past two months. It's like a large portion of the market's funding pool has suddenly been drained, with banks' available funds sharply reduced, leading to a direct depletion of liquidity in the entire market — the Federal Reserve's bank reserves have fallen to the lowest level since 2021, indicating a severe tightening of funds.

Who hasn't seen retail investors like this in the crypto world? Holding 1-2 thousand U, feeling the warmth in their palms, like grasping the last straw of hope — both looking forward to turning the tide with this little money while fearing waking up to a total loss. As a veteran who has navigated the crypto market for 7 years, I've seen too many people gamble their little capital on hundredfold coins, only to end up with nothing left. Today I'll speak frankly: retail investors at the thousand U level want to stand firm in the crypto world, relying not on the colorful candlestick charts but on practical, grounded 'survival principles'!
First move: admit defeat before making money; giving up the dream of hundredfold returns is the real starting point.

The property certificate in Shanghai, the monthly rent notifications, and that sports car in the garage that I once only dared to save as wallpaper—guess what? These are not 'rich dad' gifts; they are my 'coming-of-age' rewards earned through 7 years of trial and error in the crypto space, with over 2,900 days and nights.
Don't think I started with a halo; when I entered with a capital of 200,000, I had to study the manual for half a day just to understand the candlestick chart. At my lowest, my account shrank to less than 50,000, and at 3 a.m., I cried while staring at the screen, while even the lady selling pancakes downstairs slept more soundly than I did. But looking back now, those pits that almost crushed me turned out to be the 'life-saving lessons' I couldn't avoid later.

Can you believe it? In the summer of 2023, I entered the market with 120,000, and by the end of the year, my account had only 3,000 left, and I could only afford to order from Pin Hao Fan for takeout—until now, I watch the market for an hour every day while drinking iced Americano, hoping that I can add two more zeros to my account balance.
As a cryptocurrency analyst with 5 years of experience, I've seen too many people make quick money by luck, only to end up giving both their principal and profits back to the market. Today, I'm speaking from the heart: the cryptocurrency world has never been about 'gambling big', but rather about 'practicing your skills'. My path to success contains lessons that every ordinary person can learn.
Stop right there! 90% of people lose everything because of 'emotional trading'.

Have you also come across the myth of 'turning 3000 in capital into 30,000 in a week'? Did you get enticed by the stories of 'making wealth through leverage' right after entering the circle, always feeling that the next trade could earn back your rent money?
I dare bet that 90% of newcomers stumble like this - holding a few thousand in capital, staring at the K-line as if watching the lottery results, with their minds filled with thoughts of 'turning the tables against the odds'. And the result? They don’t understand the market, leverage goes full throttle, and within three days their capital is wiped out, losing even the qualification to pay tuition fees to the market.
This isn't just empty talk; it's a lesson I learned the hard way with real money. Three years ago, I had only 12,000 left in my account. During that time, I watched the market until dawn every day, always thinking 'one more bet could bring me back to breakeven'. One night, I saw a certain cryptocurrency surge sharply. In a moment of excitement, I directly opened a high-leverage position. Watching the screen turn red, my hands trembled so much that I couldn't press the close button, and I was already calculating how much of this money could pay off my bills.

凌晨3点的手机屏幕亮得刺眼，交易平台余额栏里的1200刀，像根针似的扎得我太阳穴突突跳。三个月前揣着2万刀进场时，我还对着K线图拍大腿："这钱不跟捡似的？"结果现实给了我一记响亮的耳光——差点把本金亏成"够买杯奶茶加双份珍珠"的钱。那天我删了3个喊单群，卸载APP的手指悬了10分钟，最后没删不是不甘心，是突然想通：与其骂市场黑心，不如扒光自己的认知漏洞。
后来我把所有亏损记录打印出来，贴在书桌前当" wallpaper "，每笔亏空都标上"犯错原因"。半年后再看账户，28万刀的数字让我差点把咖啡洒在键盘上。说真的，这不是什么"逆袭爽文"，是把血泪教训熬成准则后的必然结果。今天把这7条"保命铁律"甩出来，每条都带着真金白银的温度——
1. 混沌期别当"敢死队"，空仓才是"隐身挂"
加密圈每天都有"百倍预期"的吆喝，行情一模糊，群里就有人喊"快上车，晚了没位置"。我早年就吃这亏，看别人晒盈利截图就心痒，稀里糊涂跟着买，结果进去就被套在"山顶吹风"。后来才懂，MACD黏合、成交量萎靡的时候，所有"机会"都是陷阱。空仓不是怂，是在等"稳赢信号"——宁愿错过10个"可能涨"，也绝不能踩1个"肯定跌"的坑，毕竟错过不会亏，踩错可能直接归零。
2. 热门标的要当"快闪族"，别做"接盘侠"
那些突然霸占热度榜的"明星标的"，涨起来像坐火箭，跌起来比蹦极还狠。我之前追过一个单日涨50%的，第一天赚了20%，想着"再等等，冲翻倍"，结果第二天直接低开30%，浮盈变亏损不说，割肉都得排队。后来总结出铁则：热门标的必须提前画好"止盈止损线"，一旦热度退潮（比如社群发言减少、换手率下降）就立刻跑，别抱着"再涨点"的幻想。你以为是"躺赢"，其实主力在暗处等着给你"递话筒"——让你接最后一棒。
3. 趋势确立时，"躺平"比"瞎操作"赚得多
见过太多人在大阳线里"高抛低吸"，结果抛了就接不回来，拍着大腿喊"卖飞了"。我去年遇到一次放量高开，K线直接站稳60日均线，当时按捺住"做波段赚差价"的冲动，握紧筹码扛了5天波动，最后收益是频繁操作的3倍。记住：当行情给出"高开+放量"的组合拳，就是趋势给的"鸡腿"，别忙着啃一口就扔，得等把肉全撕下来再撤——频繁操作看似聪明，实则把利润都耗在手续费和滑点上了。
4. 巨量阳线出现，先"分批落袋"再笑
不管在高位还是中位，突然冒出来的"巨量大阳"，大概率是主力在"派发福利"——只不过最后一棒往往是散户接。我有次看某标的拉了根实体超过8%的巨阳，贪心想等"涨停再卖"，结果下午就掉头向下，从赚15%到亏8%，气得我差点把鼠标摔了。血的教训：巨阳一出，先卖1/3锁定利润，剩下的看后续走势分批减，多贪一秒都可能从"赢家"变"韭菜"，毕竟主力出货比你想象中快得多。
5. 均线是"导航仪"，别凭感觉"瞎开船"
散户最容易犯的错就是"跟着感觉走"，看K线红了就买，绿了就卖，跟赌大小没区别。我现在操作全看日线均线：短期看5日和10日，中长期看30日和60日，支撑位扛住就拿，压力位破了就走，短线3-7天周转，金叉买、死叉卖，把"直觉"换成"数据说话"。之前靠这招，躲过了3次大跌，比听10个"大神"喊单都靠谱——毕竟均线不会骗你，但"大神"可能会。
6. 反人性才能"活下来"，趋势是"大哥"
上涨趋势没破，别因为"怕跌"就卖；下跌趋势没企稳，别想着"抄底"捡便宜。我见过有人在下跌时"越跌越买"，美其名曰"摊薄成本"，结果抄在半山腰，最后只能"割肉离场"；也有人在上涨时"赚点就跑"，看着后续行情拍断大腿。记住：市场的情绪是"陷阱"，趋势才是"靠山"，别被恐慌和狂热带着走。逆势操作的人，90%都成了"炮灰"，剩下10%是运气好，但运气这东西，在加密圈撑不了多久。
7. 分批建仓是"护身符"，梭哈是"自杀式"
"all in"这两个字，在加密圈等同于"送命符"。我现在建仓分3批，每批间隔2-3天，比如第一次买20%，跌5%再补30%，再跌5%补剩下的50%，既能摊薄成本，又能留有余地。而且每笔交易必先设好止损，比如亏10%就割，绝不恋战。之前见过一个兄弟梭哈某"概念币"，结果项目方跑路，账户直接归零，哭着说"这辈子再也不碰加密了"。说真的，在这个市场里，活着才有机会赚钱，梭哈一时爽，归零火葬场。
其实加密圈从来不是"赌运气"的赌场，是"认知变现"的战场——你亏的每一分钱，都是认知不到位的学费；你赚的每一笔钱，都是认知升级的奖金。我从1200刀爬起来，靠的不是"突然开窍"，是摔一次就记一次疼，把"我以为"改成"市场是什么"。
接下来我会每周扒一个"加密圈生存技巧"，比如"怎么识别喊单骗局""小资金如何做波段"，偶尔还会吐槽那些"坑人标的"——毕竟谁还没在这个圈里"社死"过几次呢？比如我曾经把"测试网代币"当成"主网币"买，现在想起来都想找个地缝钻进去。
关注我，下次咱们聊聊"那些看起来稳赚的'新玩法'，其实全是坑"，保证让你少走我当年的弯路～ 毕竟在加密圈，活下去，比啥都重要，你说对吧？
#特朗普加密新政 $ETH
$BNB

Don't swipe away! If you have a few hundred U in your pocket and want to dive into the crypto circle, first ask yourself with a clear conscience: are you here to make money, or to send people to the market?
I've been in this circle for 8 years, and I've seen too many people enter the market with 800 U, only to lose it all in 3 days — it's not that they're unlucky, they simply don't understand the survival logic of small capital. On the contrary, last year, a fan followed my methods with 950 U, and after half a year, he actually rolled it up to 28,000 U without ever experiencing the panic of a 'halved account'. Today, I'm sharing these three fundamental rules with you; remember them well, they're more useful than any analyst's predictions!

Recently opened the market software, and the gold K-line seems to have shot up like a rocket. Many friends in the crypto circle privately message me: 'Bro, the gold price has skyrocketed, will the coins we hold be drained?' To be honest, the more the gold price soars, the clearer my mind becomes - this familiar feeling is very much like the 'storm warning' before every major market movement.
First, understand one iron rule: all 'risk aversion celebrations' cannot escape the 'crisis script'.
Don't just focus on the soaring gold; if we look at history, we know that behind every super bull market in gold, there stands a global financial shock. The gold frenzy from 1971 to 1980 had the 1974 global financial crisis directly intervening as a 'booster'; the gold bull market that started in 2001 is even more straightforward, as the subprime mortgage crisis in 2008 pushed gold prices to a historic high. This is not a coincidence; it is the instinct of capital seeking security in 'uncertainty'.

The vibration of the phone at 2 AM was like a muffled thunder, exploding in the silent bedroom. I stared at the voice message sent by Sister Lin, and the moment my fingertip pressed down, her cries almost overflowed from the earpiece: 'Old Chen, I really am done for... The hole of 520,000, now only 3,200 Tether left...'
As an analyst who has been in the cryptocurrency market for five years, I have seen too many despairing moments of overnight liquidation, but Sister Lin's situation is special—she comes from a financial background and should understand risk the best, yet she fell victim to the two words 'greed'. At that time, she dove in with the mindset of 'taking a gamble to get back on shore', and her strategy of fully investing at a high cost led to a complete loss of her 520,000 principal, leaving only a small amount of money like a flickering candle in the wind, which was her last hope.

Who understands this? After 5 years in the crypto circle, I've seen too many people lose their pants chasing contracts and trading new coins with a capital of 100,000; I've also seen others use the most 'foolish' method to turn small amounts into seven figures. Today, I'm pulling out my 'sure-fire rules' from the bottom of the box—no need to watch the market until dawn, no need to listen to so-called 'insider information', just follow along with 100,000 and if your execution is strong, you can make money!
Old fans know that I never recommend 'get rich quick' schemes. The crypto market seems crazy, but there are patterns to follow. I've used this strategy for 3 years, experiencing bear market crashes and bull market surges, and my account curve is as steady as climbing stairs, with the core principle being: 'follow the trend'. Without further ado, let’s get to the point!

Last autumn, I received a message with a crying tone: “Bro, 300,000 is down to 10,000, I’ll send you the account screenshot, I’m ready to cancel” - five months later, this guy sent a new screenshot: 150,000. Staring at that string of numbers, I wasn't surprised because I already knew that what he lacked was never the principal, but the 'non-lethal' way of playing.
After translating his three months of trading records, I almost sprayed coffee on my keyboard - isn’t this the scene of the 'Leek Behavior Awards'? Seeing the group shouting 'Charge' and then going all in, panicking and cutting losses when the K-line drops two points, drawing the stop-loss line thinner than eyebrows, and when it really drops, starting to comfort himself with 'just wait a bit for a rebound'. In short, he wasn’t trading; he was 'betting his temper' against the market.

Ten years later, you are slumped on the balcony of a wooden cabin in the Swiss mountains, the fireplace crackling, and the hot cocoa in your hand still steaming—suddenly you come across the old news from 2013 about '10,000 bitcoins for two pizzas,' and you probably laugh until tears come: If that guy had known that in 2024 one bitcoin could buy a Rolls-Royce Phantom, he would have framed the pizza box as a 'shame pillar.'
But you know better than anyone that the crypto market has never had 'money falling from the sky'; only those who understand the rhythm can hit the right beat. Today, I am sitting in front of my computer typing these words, not to flaunt the wealth of ten years from now, but to pass on the 'survival rules' I have grasped at this moment to you, and to the friends in front of the screen who are pondering.

Every day in the background, someone asks me: "Bro, you've been in the crypto circle for 8 years and saved up 20 million, what are the 'magical techniques' for selecting projects?" Today, I want to speak honestly — my skills all come from lessons learned from falling into the pit of 'losing so much I wanted to delete the software,' none of it was based on luck.
When I first entered the market, I was also a 'high-flying soldier,' seeing the screen filled with red and my eyes sparkling, my fingers moved faster than my brain, charging in with a full position waiting for 'young models from the club.' What was the result? Nine out of ten times chasing highs led to being buried, and the worst time my principal was directly halved. Lying in bed at night staring at my phone screen, I felt like a fool paying for lessons. Looking back now, every impulsive trade was 'tuition' paid to the market, and this tuition was so expensive that I remember it for a lifetime.

The notification sound at 2 AM is more painful than a plummeting K-line—fans sent a screenshot: 274000 in debt, three credit cards maxed out, staring at a screen full of green bars, hands shaking to the point of typos, asking me 'is there still a chance to turn things around?'
I didn't say chicken soup, I just replied with a harsh truth: money can be earned back after a loss, but once a person collapses, there's really no saving them. If you want to turn things around, first throw that 'gambler's mentality' into the trash and rely on real methods to break the deadlock. This is not preaching; it's the blood and tears experience I've summarized from hundreds of retail investors who turned their losses around.
Step one: first 'cut the position to save your life', don't confront the market head-on.

Last autumn, at 3 AM, WeChat popped up a message with a crying tone: "Bro, 300,000 U is gone, just over 10,000 left, I want to clear my position and leave."
The message was from my cryptocurrency friend Lao Yang, who had been with me for two years. Not long ago, he was sharing screenshots in the group of "full position contracts hitting new highs," and now he took a big tumble. I didn't comfort him and directly said, "Clearing your position now means admitting defeat. Stop for a week, export your trading records from the past six months for me — do you dare?"
A week later, the review sheet he sent was simply a template for "retail trader behavior award": 70% of the trades were bought chasing the gain leaderboard, 28% of the losing trades held on for more than 3 days, and there were 5 instances of full positions in a single day with the direction reversed twice. I pointed to the sheet and asked him, "Are you trading or just giving money to the market?"

Have you ever felt the urge to smash your keyboard when watching your account balance continuously decline? I have—after clearing my account for the sixth time, there was less than five digits left in liquid funds on the screen, and my fingers trembled so much that I entered the login password wrong three times. It felt like the market was pressing me to the ground and rubbing me repeatedly, even my breath carried the taste of 'losing too much.'
Until a senior in the circle threw me a line, 'Don't just endure, learn to mine for information gold,' I followed it with a mentality of treating a dead horse as a living one. I didn't expect that with just 3,000 in liquid funds, it would multiply over 60 times in less than 90 days. Today, I'm breaking down this 'turning losses into profits' route for you, especially the last step, which 90% of people can't endure, but is precisely the key to reaping the rewards.

You might slap your thigh when I say this—among the average 'K-line masters' and 'informed individuals' in the crypto space, I, as a 'Buddhist player' who doesn't look at MACD or chase community rumors, managed to use three sets of 'stupid rules that break through the floor' to turn 3000U into 24000U.
It's not that I have extraordinary talent, but rather that I have seen through the 'survival truth' of this circle: 90% of people lose because they 'want to take shortcuts', while the real money-making secret is hidden in 'the stubborn effort that goes against human nature'.
My three sets of 'stupid rules': no guessing, no gambling, just eating with the trend.
When I first entered the crypto space, I also followed the trend and learned some 'advanced operations'—staring at the RSI to look for overbought and oversold conditions, chasing new projects based on so-called 'insider information', and ended up losing 40% in half a month. Later, I simply decided to 'break the jar and let it spill', threw away all indicator software, and stubbornly focused on the two words 'trend', which surprisingly led me to a breakthrough:

Have you ever felt this kind of frustration of 'eating flies': your market analysis is so good that you admire yourself, the K-line trend moves in the expected direction just as drawn, yet your account balance feels like a leaking bucket—getting emptier and emptier?
Don't blame bad luck, and don't resent the 'main force targeting'; I dare say 90% of people stumble because they haven't seen through the 'hidden rules game' of leveraged trading. As a veteran who has been in this market for 5 years, the pitfalls I fell into back then still make me slap my thigh when I think about them now.
From a floating profit of 5000 to being liquidated: the day I was taught by the 'long needle' how to be a person

Old fans who have just finished watching the market understand — I never shout empty words. The 'golden pit' in the ETH 1-hour chart is the only opportunity to buy low with eyes closed in the past 3 days. If you miss this wave, next week you can only slap your thigh and watch others make 300 points!
First, let’s hit the technical aspect hard: The 1-hour BOLL band shows that the current price of 3117 slightly breaks below the lower band (3131), but this kind of 'false breakdown' is a classic method of the main force washing the market. The KDJ indicator has K value at 27.84 and J value at 23.98, both plunging into the oversold area. After such levels of overselling in the past week, ETH's average rebound amplitude reached 4.2%; looking at the MACD, the green bars have continuously decreased for 3 periods, and the fast line shows signs of crossing the slow line — short-term rebound momentum is already fully charged.

Family, who understands it! In my experience with cryptocurrency trading, I have seen too many magical scenes: some people rush in after hearing about 'hundred times coins' and end up buried on the mountain eating instant noodles that same day; others panic and cut losses upon seeing the green bars, only to realize it was just a false move by the main force. Clearly, I've stayed up countless nights staring at the K-line, yet my wallet is cleaner than my face—it's not that you aren't working hard enough, it's that you haven't grasped the market's 'underlying message'!
The following 9 phrases are the truths I realized after 5 years of crawling and rolling in the crypto world, having lost over 2 months' salary. Remember them, so next time you watch the market, you can have a bit more clarity and a bit less impulsiveness: