苏哲分析

This week, Bitcoin and market fluctuations have intensified, with significant ups and downs. Some small investors find it difficult to manage, leading to confusion in trading and a loss of confidence. At this stage of the trend, professional analysis, solid strength, and a confident attitude become particularly important.

At this stage, we are offering 5 slots for professional guidance to help friends understand market information, technical analysis, and operational skills.

Recommended entry threshold: Stable from 2000u to 5000u, medium to long-term starting from 10000u. Strict execution, professional position management, and risk control.

After reaching a new high, Bitcoin has become the sixth largest asset in the world (Updated July 11, 2025)
1. Latest Market Performance
Price reaches a new high: Bitcoin (BTC) broke through $117,000 on July 10, then slightly retreated to $116,000, with a 24-hour increase of 4.54%.
Market capitalization ranking: Bitcoin's total market capitalization surpasses Google (Alphabet), becoming the sixth largest asset globally, behind only gold, Nvidia, Microsoft, Apple, and Amazon.
2. Core Drivers of Bitcoin's Rise
Institutional inflow: BlackRock’s Bitcoin Spot ETF (IBIT) raised $9 billion in 2025, making it one of the top five ETFs in the U.S. for fund inflows.
Policy benefits: The Trump administration has suspended tariffs for 90 days, boosting market risk appetite.
Scarcity support: The total supply of Bitcoin is only 21 million coins, with institutional investors continuously increasing their holdings.
3. Future Outlook
If Bitcoin rises to $158,000, its market capitalization will surpass Apple ($3.15 trillion), entering the top four globally.
Market predictions suggest a target price range of $110,000 to $200,000 by the end of 2025.
4. Risk Warning
Short-term volatility: Bitcoin futures open interest has reached a new high, potentially exacerbating market fluctuations.
Policy uncertainty: The Federal Reserve's interest rate policy and new tariffs in the U.S. (effective August) may impact market sentiment.
Conclusion: The rise of Bitcoin marks the formal entry of cryptocurrencies into the global mainstream asset category. Whether it can challenge the market capitalization positions of Apple and Microsoft in the future depends on the continued inflow of institutional funds and changes in market risk appetite.#BTC再创新高

Ethereum has recently led the surge in cryptocurrencies, with prices rebounding sharply from around $3100 to a high of $3397, and now pulling back to around $3300 this morning. The daily chart has shown four consecutive days of gains, presenting a strong bullish trend.
Technical analysis: The daily EMA trend indicator is contracting upwards, forming a bullish trend. The K-line has broken through the upper Bollinger Band at 3286, MACD shows increasing momentum, and the DIF and DEA are close to the 0 axis; the four-hour K-line has deviated from the EMA trend indicator, MACD is rising, and the DIF and DEA are widening. However, there is short-term resistance at $3350 - $3400, and a further breakthrough of the MA60 moving average resistance is needed, as short-term indicators are overbought, indicating a demand for a pullback to digest the gains.
Everyone should cautiously wait for a pullback to the support zone of 3240-3290 to set up long positions, targeting the upper range of 3340-3380. If it breaks above and stabilizes at high levels, it can continue to rise.

Bitcoin's price surged strongly past 94000 USD in the early hours today, reaching a high of 94555. However, after the breakout, it did not sustain the upward movement and subsequently retraced to around 92000 USD, displaying a volatile trend of 'breakout - retracement,' reflecting the fierce competition between bulls and bears at key price levels.
Technical analysis: On the daily candlestick chart, the price has temporarily broken above the upper Bollinger Band at 94500 and is under pressure at this level. The EMA trend indicator is contracting upwards, the MACD continues to increase in volume, and the KDJ has formed a strong bullish signal. However, the indicators on the 4-hour and 1-hour levels are in overbought territory, indicating a need for a pullback. The core resistance above is in the 94000 - 95000 USD range, with 94200 as a particularly critical resistance level at the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement;
If Bitcoin retraces to 91500-91000, it could be a good opportunity to establish a small long position (aggressive traders may open positions at 92000, leaving room for two additional positions) with a target range of 92500-93500. If the upward volume continues, it could rise to new recent highs!

Ethereum's resistance today is stronger than Bitcoin's, with prices oscillating around 3100. Yesterday, it also surged to 3180 before retreating, dipping to 3076 and then rebounding to 3150, with the current price maintained around 3100. The daily line has consecutively closed in the green, and the high points are gradually rising, indicating that bullish strength has some support.

Technical indicators: The daily EMA trend indicator is contracting upwards, with the K line consistently stabilizing above the EMA15 trend line at 3050. MACD is gaining momentum, and both DIF and DEA are expanding upwards. On the four-hour chart, MACD has formed a golden cross but with weak momentum, and the Bollinger Bands are contracting. The upper band is at 3154, and the lower band is at 2980. The K line has tested several times below the resistance level at 3170, showing that bullish performance is stronger than bearish, but the upward momentum is insufficient. However, there is a evening star pattern today suggesting potential downside risk in the short term.

Operational suggestions: Range between 3100-3050, target looking at the upper range of 3150-3170.

On December 9, the Bitcoin price showed a volatile downward trend, falling below the key psychological level of 90,000 USD during the day. In the early hours yesterday, the price surged from 89,000 to 92,260, then retreated and consolidated, with the day's current price fluctuating in the range of 90,000 - 90,500.

Technical Indicators: The trend indicator on the daily chart is contracting, MACD has been stable with continuous volume, DIF and DEA are expanding upwards but still have distance from the 0 axis, there is a clear bottom divergence and consolidation pattern, the Bollinger Bands are in a tightening state, with the upper band at 94,050 and the lower band at 84,500, and the K-line is operating above the middle band of 89,300. On the hourly chart, MACD has entered the negative zone and after forming a death cross between DIF and DEA, it continues to extend downwards, EMA has crossed below EMA forming a bearish cross, and there are signs of weakness in the short term. Additionally, the 20-day moving average at around 89,370 USD provides recent support, while the 30-day moving average at around 92,387 USD poses short-term resistance.

Operational Suggestions: Lean towards swing trading, with buying opportunities in the range of 89,000-90,000 and targets of 91,000-91,500.

Congratulations to partner Shi Pan for the successful start on Monday. After a morning pullback, decisively opened a long position. Although the market is currently in a slow oscillating upward trend, there are still opportunities to profit!

Bitcoin at 90700-91500, a gain of 800 points secured, and Ether at 3075-3135, with a range of 60 points already captured. A small position of 2800U, Su Zhe's control over the market trend and direction is still very accurate, and the win rate is undoubtedly high!

The weekly chart has already shown two consecutive bullish candles, and the intraday trend continues to maintain a low position. Partners who are having difficulties with operations can privately message Su Zhe!

The Ethereum trend is in sync with Bitcoin, with a minimum price touching $2900 before rising to $3150. On December 8, it consolidated in the $3050 - $3110 range, reaching a 24-hour high of $3132.62, with a 24-hour increase of 2.25%. The $3000 level has become the core position of the bulls and bears.

Technical analysis: The 24-hour trading volume reached $1.699 billion, with a moderate increase in volume. If it stabilizes above $3100, it is expected to continue the rebound trend. Short-term resistance levels are $3170 and $3230, while support levels are $3050 and $3000, with $3000 being an important psychological level. As long as it maintains above this position, the short-term technical structure leans towards bullish. However, the current price shows divergence with short-term technical indicators like MACD and RSI, indicating there are still internal differences in the market, and the foundation for the rise needs to be further solidified through fluctuations.

Trading suggestion: In the short term, focus on the stability of $3100. After confirming an effective breakout, one can follow in with a small position, targeting $3170 - $3230. If there is a pullback, one can try to go long in the $3000 - $3050 range; if the price breaks below the key support of $3000, one can take a light short position, targeting $2900. A short-term strategy can also be referenced, going light short as it rises to $3185 - $3240, targeting below $3100.

The price of large pancakes on December 8 showed a "roller coaster" trend, rebounding to $91,700 after hitting a low of $87,800 overnight, and after a morning pullback to $89,000, it again rose above $91,000, with a 24-hour increase of about 1.63%. Previously, after failing to break through $94,000, it had been consolidating in the $88,000 - $89,000 range with weakening momentum.

Technical analysis: A potential "rising wedge" is forming on the daily chart, indicating a decrease in momentum and an increase in volatility. The RSI indicator is in the neutral zone of 45 - 55, with buying and selling forces temporarily balanced; although the EMA trend indicator remains bearish, the daily K-line has broken above the EMA15 trend line at $90,800, entering a short bullish state, with the EMA30 resistance level at $93,600 and the Fibonacci resistance point at $94,200. The four-hour K-line has broken the EMA120 trend line at $91,500; the MACD volume contraction is about to end and start expanding, and after breaking $92,000, the DIF and DEA are expected to form a golden cross. The key resistance area is between $92,000 - $95,000, while the key support area is $87,000 - $88,000. If the support level is lost, it may drop to $85,000 or even $80,000.

In the short term, it is viewed as a volatile market, and chasing highs and lows is not recommended. For those holding single orders, the target should first look at whether $916,000 breaks effectively; if it breaks, watch for $92,000 - $93,000;
For short orders, it can be attempted in the $93,000 - $93,500 range, with a target of $92,000 - $92,500, and if it breaks, look towards $91,000 - $91,500.
At the same time, it is necessary to closely monitor the breakout situation at the $92,000 resistance level; a breakout with volume can allow for appropriate position increases, while if it encounters resistance in the resistance area and falls back, positions should be reduced in a timely manner to avoid the risk of a pullback.

The Ethereum trend is linked to Bitcoin but has shown weaker performance in the early stages. On December 4th, it surged to 3240 before falling due to selling pressure, dipping to 3064 and then rebounding to around 3150, recovering most of its losses. Although the rebound pace has slowed, the long lower shadow indicates active buying at lower levels, and the overall structure appears more optimistic than Bitcoin, currently in a consolidation phase after an oversold correction.
Technical indicators: The hourly RSI has risen from a low of 35 to a neutral range of 55, completing the oversold correction. Previously, there was a bullish arrangement that broke through all moving averages and a golden cross pattern. The MACD bullish momentum had been continuously strengthening, and currently, it is positively influenced by the Fusaka upgrade, enhancing its practicality.
Operating suggestions
Core strategy: Keep buying with the trend: You can look for opportunities to go long in the 3100 - 3120 range. If the price pulls back to 3100 and stabilizes, it is a good entry point, with the initial target set at 3180 - 3220. Once broken, it can challenge the previous high of 3240.

Bitcoin is currently in a weak oscillation state at a high level. On the evening of December 4th, affected by the U.S. initial unemployment claims data, Bitcoin spiked down to a low of 90842 before rapidly rebounding, stabilizing above 92000 during the day. The market is oscillating between 92000 and 93000, with both bulls and bears engaged in a tug-of-war. Overall, it has not reclaimed the lower boundary of the original consolidation range at 92800, indicating that the market structure has shifted from high-level consolidation to weak oscillation.
Technical Indicators: On the daily chart, the spike's low is close to the 0.382 retracement level of the previous rebound trend line, and it is supported by the 5-day and 10-day moving averages, confirming the effectiveness of the support; the MACD indicator on the 4-hour chart is in a critical state for both bulls and bears, with no clear directional signal. Additionally, the short-term trend support point of EMA15 is at 91200, and the strong resistance at the golden resistance level of 0.618 corresponds to 94200, making it difficult for the main force to break through this level in the short term.
Operation Suggestions
Mainly short-term low buy: 91000-91500 can choose low buy, with a target looking first at 92500 - 93000. If it breaks, it can further see 93500-94000.

From a technical perspective, Bitcoin and Ethereum have both respectively reached the Fibonacci golden ratio at 93000/3170. There is still room above the daily level, with a focus on low longs!

Bitcoin 93000-92500 range, aiming for the daily top of 95500-96000.
Ethereum 3200-3150 range, aiming for the upper target of 3280-3420.

Three major positive developments have arrived, and the crypto market is in turmoil! Bitcoin skyrocketed overnight to 92,000, and Ethereum remains steady at 3,000 dollars. This rebound is too fierce! 💥

🔥 Positive Development 1: Vanguard opens the Bitcoin ETF trading door for 8 million customers, even the most conservative institutions are joining in, and traditional funds are flooding in!

🔥 Positive Development 2: Trump supports dovish Hassett as the Federal Reserve Chairman, expectations for liquidity are skyrocketing!

🔥 Positive Development 3: The Federal Reserve officially ends quantitative tightening, liquidity easing is no longer just a "dream"; it’s about to become a reality!

💡 Market confidence + funding both boosting, but retail investors should be cautious! Remember:

✅ Hold on tight to your Bitcoin and Ethereum, don't get left behind!

✅ Use spare cash to buy on dips, don’t chase highs and sell lows!

✅ Be patient for the big market movements, don’t rush to go all in!

🌪️ The favorable wind has arrived, steady the helm, and don't capsize before setting sail!

⚠️ Yen interest rate hike = Federal Reserve interest rate cut "catalyst"?!

Core logic: When the yen raises interest rates, if the dollar does not lower interest rates, it will "siphon" off capital. The U.S. economy cannot withstand this wave of pressure (simply put: money runs to the yen, affecting U.S. companies and employment).

Key foreshadowing: A signal for interest rate cuts has already been given; if not followed up, Powell not only has to bear the blame for the economic downturn but will also be criticized for being "untrustworthy"!

What do you think: Will the Federal Reserve decisively cut interest rates to avoid a trap? 👇

⚠️Milestone events in the crypto circle! The world's second-largest asset management giant Vanguard lifts the Bitcoin ETF ban! (The main reasons for the rise in Bitcoin and sentiment tonight!!!)

The former "anti-crypto bastion" has completely broken down～ Holding 10 trillion in assets + 50 million clients, what does its shift mean? Is it a clarion call for institutional funds to enter the market, or a booster for Bitcoin's rebound?

The boundaries between traditional finance and the crypto market are melting away, come to the comments section to share your thoughts!

Although Bitcoin and Ethereum have not broken the descending channel on the daily chart yet, they have been in an upward phase recently, and the resistance levels above are quite close, definitely dominated by low volatility. Furthermore, looking at the four-hour trend chart, the upward channel in the small cycle still exists and is relatively strong!

Bitcoin and Ethereum will only continue to decline if they cannot stabilize above the resistance levels of 93000 and 3170; otherwise, they are currently in a strong upward phase, and caution is still advised!

Recently, Bitcoin and the market sentiment have experienced several downward trends, but they have started to rebound from the bottom. However, a rebound does not necessarily mean a reversal.

From a technical perspective, Bitcoin and the market sentiment are gradually rising on the daily chart, but the upper resistance level is still quite strong, remaining in a downward channel. To continue to open up the upper range, it is still necessary to break through the resistance. Bitcoin mainly focuses on the dual resistance levels around 91600/93000, while the market sentiment mainly focuses on around 3170.

In the evening, it is highly likely to test the dual resistance upwards, and during the day, one can try short positions while maintaining good defense!

Still continue to track, looking at the short track pullback on the white plate.

Big coin 91000-91500 track, target below 9000-89000
Elegant shape 3020-3060 track, target 2980-2950 ​​​

The US stock market is about to open, and Su Zhe's view on the evening trend is still mainly low. After the market opens, it is expected that there will be another wave of bottom testing. Friends who have orders in hand need not worry too much. For those who want to enter the market, you can take the lead and enter the factory now! You can choose to enter early with Xiao Cang and just reserve a position for replenishment!!!

Big coin 87000-86000 low, target 88000-89000
Yitai 2900-2840 low, target above 2980-3030

Bitcoin and Ethereum are still experiencing fluctuations this afternoon. The current trend is overly tense, with Bitcoin and Ethereum focusing on the lines of 85500 and 2750, respectively.

From a technical perspective, both Bitcoin and Ethereum are currently in a seriously oversold zone on the weekly chart, with support at 85500 and 2750. However, the KDJ has shown signs of turning. The daily chart has seen two consecutive green candles since the weekend, and the MACD green bars are slowly decreasing in volume. The momentum is starting to pick up, and the U.S. stock market is likely to rise first when it opens tonight. Those who have already entered positions below can continue to hold.

Bitcoin 86000-855000, target 87500-88000
Ethereum 2800-2750, target 2880-2930