币圈饿狼

Recently researching a project $Aif that hasn't launched its token yet,
The interesting point is that it has already written into its mechanism the question of 'who will operate it later' —
It has designed an AI to be responsible for promotion, traffic generation, and creating momentum from the start, and then uses the money from monetizing traffic for future buybacks and destruction.

For traders, at this stage, there are only two things they can do with such projects:
1) Understand the mechanism, clearly write down what they agree and disagree with;
2) Think in advance whether they want to create 'first-day sentiment' once it goes live, or just observe and not participate.

True preparation is not about rushing in early, but about understanding the rules in advance.
#Aif

Sunday is my favorite day for review.
I will categorize all the orders from this week into three types:

Orders that were planned and executed properly;

Orders that were planned but executed poorly;

Orders that were completely based on emotions and impulses.

Then I do just one thing:
Ask myself — what would this account look like if I could reduce the third type of orders by 50% in the future?

Even a starving wolf needs to look in the mirror,
To see clearly who its real enemy is.
#周复盘 #自我检视

Multiple Timeframe Analysis: Don't Just Focus on the 1-Minute Chart for Excitement
If you often feel like you’re being “played by the market,” it’s likely because you’re only using one timeframe to analyze.
My own habit is to use “multiple timeframe analysis”:
Daily / 4 hours: Determine the overall direction
Is it an uptrend, downtrend, or clearly ranging?
If the daily is repeatedly being blocked below key resistance, I won’t forcefully look for long opportunities on the 5-minute chart.
1 hour: Look for structure & key levels
Previous highs / previous lows / support / resistance / important volume concentrated areas
Mark the areas of “only test with a small position” and “can go heavier here.”
15 minutes / 5 minutes: Execution & precise entry
Wait for the price to reach key areas, then use smaller timeframes to see:
Are there signals like increased volume, false breakouts, or sharp moves?
Don’t chase trades in the “air zone.”
The essence of multiple timeframes is to break it down into one phrase:
“Get the overall direction right, find good levels on smaller timeframes.”
📌 If you often get emotionally affected by just a few candles on the 1-minute chart, you might want to try:
First, zoom out the chart a bit, use a higher timeframe to reduce the “noise.”

Tell a real moment of "The Hungry Wolf Out of Control":
Once, after two consecutive stop-loss trades, I was unwilling to accept it and increased my position on the third trade, hoping to recover.
The result was very simple - three consecutive losses, and looking back, the profit for that day turned into a significant loss.

Later, I learned a rule:

After two consecutive losses, automatically reduce your position; after three consecutive losses, shut down the computer.

It's not that the market is unfair to you, but rather your emotions are backstabbing you.
Sometimes, the hungry wolf needs to know when to withdraw from the battlefield and come back another day.
#连亏处理 #情绪交易

What really opens the gap is the 'Review Habit'
Many people feel that they lack 'talent', but most of the problems I see are not about talent, but about —
not reviewing.
My own review template is very simple; you can copy it directly:
What trades did I make today?
Currency / Direction / Opening Reason / Stop Loss Position / Actual Result
Especially note: Was this reason clearly written at the time, or was it only 'supplemented' afterwards?
What type of loss order is it?
Normal strategy loss (acceptable)
Emotional order: chasing up, betting on news, adding to a losing position
Execution problem: not stopping loss when it should, not taking profit when it should
What would happen if all emotional orders were deleted?
Many people's 'crash points' are actually concentrated in just a few emotional outbursts.
Write a suggestion for improvement to 'tomorrow's self'
Don’t write grand theories, just one key point, for example:
'Tomorrow I can only act on the varieties for which I have planned in advance.'
If you persist for 1–3 months, you will find:
Your strategy may not have changed much, but the 'person executing it' is no longer the same you.

Cutting losses is difficult, but for me, taking profits is sometimes even harder.

In the past, it was either:

I would rush to sell after a small rise, only to look back and see it soar again;
or it was:

I wanted to take a few more bites, only to give back all my profits on a pullback.

Now I have set two levels for taking profits:

First level: reduce part of the position when reaching 1R/2R, locking in some profits;

Second level: move the stop loss close to the cost, allowing the remaining position to play freely.

A hungry wolf doesn’t need to eat everything clean,
keeping what has already reached the mouth is more important than fantasizing about the next bite.
#ProfitTakingStrategy #LockInProfits

Profit and Loss Ratio > Win Rate: Many people have got it wrong
Many people like to ask: "Teacher, what is the win rate of your strategy?"
I am more concerned about: the profit and loss ratio.
There is a simple formula that I suggest you remember:
Expected Return = Win Rate × Average Profit - Loss Rate × Average Loss
Let me give a very simple example (just for illustration, not advice):
The win rate is only 40%, but:
Each loss -1R
Each profit +3R
Expected = 0.4×3 - 0.6×1 = 1.2 - 0.6 = +0.6R (still making money in the long run)
Conversely:
Win rate 70%, but
Take profit +1R, stop loss -2R
Expected = 0.7×1 - 0.3×2 = 0.7 - 0.6 = +0.1R (slight execution issues turn negative)
So when I design a strategy, I will prioritize these few things:
Can I achieve "small losses, large profits" instead of the opposite?
Is the stop loss fixed and executable, rather than "going by feeling"?
When a big market movement comes, can I let profitable positions run as far as possible?
📌 Do not be fooled by gimmicks like "90% win rate" anymore.
In the highly volatile market of cryptocurrency, a healthy profit and loss ratio + stable execution is much more important than an inflated win rate.

The most exhilarating moment of chasing the rise is right after placing the order, while the K line is still surging upward.
However, many people overlook this: the vast majority of "high position relay" ultimately ends up catching the last baton.

My approach:

If you really want to ride the trend, lie in wait at the position where the previous pullback stabilizes, rather than jumping in during the final surge;

When the K line is running crazily, that's when I start looking for "pullback buy points/take profit positions."

A hungry wolf doesn't chase after the meat,
A hungry wolf only looks for the most advantageous ambush point for itself.

#Chasing the rise risk #美SEC推动加密创新监管 thought

During the sideways consolidation period, use 'range + grid thinking' to reduce emotional fluctuations.
When the market is not trending, many people are most likely to become confused — going up and down repeatedly, with frequent stop-losses being triggered.
In this situation, I switch to 'range trading + grid thinking'.
How to do it?
First, confirm that it is a consolidation and not a trend.
Prices frequently encounter resistance near the same high points and stabilize near the same low points;
indicators and moving averages are all intertwined, with no clear direction.
Draw the upper and lower bounds of the range.
The upper bound acts as a potential area for reducing positions/shorting;
The lower bound acts as a potential area for adding positions/replenishing.
Only operate near these two areas, and try not to act in the middle zone.
Enter and exit in batches, rather than all at once.
Adding positions: place 2–3 batches of orders near the lower bound;
Reducing positions: take profits in 2–3 batches near the upper bound.
If the range is effectively broken with increased volume, stop the grid thinking and switch back to trend strategy.
The benefit of this approach:
You don't need to 'precisely predict tops and bottoms';
Use mechanized batch trading to replace emotional 'all in and all out'.
Remember: the goal during the consolidation period is not to make a large profit all at once, but to steadily grind out profits + wait for the next trend.

The real 'hungry wolf' won't randomly bite several times in a day.

My self-imposed limit is:

A maximum of 3 trades per day; if exceeded, I will forcefully close the software;

Each trade must clearly answer two questions:

Who is being cut here?

Am I on that side?

If you can't even understand 'who the opponent is' in a single trade, it's very likely that—
you yourself are the piece of meat on the plate.

A beginner can execute a 'trend following' basic strategy
Today, I will share an idea that is most suitable for office workers/beginners: trend trading + wait for confirmation before entering the market.
Core idea:
First define the trend
It can be simply defined as: when the price stands above key moving averages (like the 50/100 moving average) on the 4-hour level, it is considered bullish, and vice versa for bearish.
Don’t try to pick bottoms or tops every day; instead, accept 'mid-segment profits'.
Only look for positions during pullbacks
When the trend is upward, wait for the price to retrace to previous highs/support areas + volume reduction, then consider going long.
When the trend is downward, wait for the price to rebound to previous lows/resistance areas + rising without volume, then consider going short.
Stop-losses are always outside the structure
Place long stop-losses below support levels at a safe distance;
Place short stop-losses above resistance levels.
As long as the structure is broken, accept the stop-loss instead of 'waiting a bit longer'.
This strategy has a characteristic: there are not many signals, but the win rate is relatively stable and friendly to the mindset.
You don't need to look at the 1-minute chart every day; just cultivate the habit of: following the trend + waiting for pullbacks + having stop-losses.

First talk about risk control, then discuss making money: My underlying logic of trading
Many people engage in contracts, and the first question is: "How many times can it multiply?"
My logic is exactly the opposite: first think about "how to survive," then think about "how to earn more."
I have only three personal principles:
The loss on a single trade should not exceed 1%-2% of total capital.
Regardless of whether it is BTC, ETH, or altcoins, if I haven't thought about the stop-loss price and the limit of losses before entering the market, I won't place that trade.
Always calculate for the "worst-case scenario"
Price spikes, false breakouts, sudden volume - these are all common. Ask yourself:
"If I hit the stop loss, can I calmly accept this loss?"
Strategies can lose, but execution cannot be chaotic.
Many accounts do not fail because of market conditions, but because of "temporary increased positions, temporary changes to stop losses, and emotional chasing of trades."
📌 Remember one thing:
Controlling drawdowns is the prerequisite for all profit curves.
If you agree with this way of thinking, you can save this. Later, I will gradually break down my trading model and explain it.

Today's hot topic on Binance Square #加密市场回调 actually reflects a normal correction after a rapid surge. Bitcoin has seen its short-term decline expand after reaching a new high, leading Ethereum and mainstream altcoins to collectively pull back, resulting in a significant reduction in overall market capitalization in a short time, with leveraged funds being centrally liquidated, and sentiment quickly shifting from 'only talking about the bull market' to 'first, preserve profits'.
This round of adjustment has roughly three reasons: first, the macro environment has turned cautious, with global risk assets generally under pressure, and funds withdrawing from high-risk markets; second, the previous surge was too large, with the technical indicators clearly overbought, leading some institutions to take profits at high levels, actively creating a 'healthy reshuffling'; third, the long-term accumulation of leverage in the futures market means that once prices turn around, the decline will be amplified, triggering a chain of liquidations and further intensifying volatility.
For ordinary investors, a more important question is not 'why is the market falling', but 'what should I do'. If you have a long-term positive outlook and reasonable positions, such fluctuations of 10%–30% are mostly just a 'halftime break' in a bull market; but if you are fully invested and frequently chasing highs and cutting losses, each adjustment could turn into a disaster for your account.
A correction is not the end of a bull market, but a process of changing hands. Whether you can hold onto your chips and optimize your position structure during fluctuations is more important than staring at the screen watching K-lines.
The above content is only personal opinion and does not constitute any investment advice.

【Major Positive Development】
At the latest congressional hearing, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell clearly stated that the Federal Reserve does not oppose U.S. banks providing services to cryptocurrency companies and investors, as long as they comply with existing risk management and consumer protection requirements. At the same time, the Federal Reserve has removed "reputational risk" from the bank regulatory manual, reducing the space for blanket refusals of crypto businesses due to "image issues."
This means:
Compliant banks can more boldly provide accounts, clearing, and custody services for exchanges, custodians, funds, and more;
The long-standing pressure of "de-banking" on the crypto industry is expected to ease, further bridging traditional finance and the crypto world;
The compliant channels for institutional funds entering the crypto market are being formally confirmed, which is favorable for the adoption and liquidity of mainstream assets like Bitcoin in the medium to long term.
The regulators have not given a "red light" to crypto; rather, after clarifying the rules, they have sent a signal of "what can be done." Do you think this is one of the key catalysts for the next market cycle?

My thinking is very simple: first determine the direction, then the area, and finally the position. If it is a high short position during the day, pay attention to several levels of resistance; for aggressive entrants, you can try a 3% light position at the first resistance, and then see if the second and third resistances can be broken to decide whether to add to the short position or reduce it; the cautious ones wait for the second resistance, while the more conservative ones go directly for the third resistance with a small stop loss. No one can accurately predict where the top is; we can only infer from historical trajectories which positions may face pressure again, leaving the rest to the market. Technical analysis and candlesticks are just tools to help you avoid erratic operations, as they can become ineffective at any moment when news breaks. Writing daily market analyses helps everyone to anticipate which price levels are prone to retracement and which ranges should not be shorted recklessly. Opinions are just references; you need to have your own rhythm. If opinions align, under the premise of controlling positions and risk management, you will feel more at ease; if opinions differ, most of the time it’s better to follow your own. One should also consider whether a person can consistently update, have evidence for entry and exit, and have reminders for taking profits and cuts. Every trade is an experiment; don’t chase the perfect trade; as long as you are steady and last long, opportunities will naturally come.

Can the market rebound after a sharp drop be a bottom-fishing opportunity? Don't rush to chase the highs.
After several days of decline, the market has finally taken a breather. The funding rate has gradually climbed back to near neutral levels from previously negative values. Simply put, it's like both bulls and bears in the market temporarily don’t want to 'tax' each other, indicating that the panic selling has subsided and some people are getting itchy to bottom-fish.
But my feeling is that this is at most a technical rebound after a sharp drop, like a ball bouncing off the ground; it’s still far from truly rising. Some analysts believe this rebound 'feels like a dead cat bounce,' and the market is clearly not ready to shift to a 'crazy optimistic mode.' The broader environment also hasn’t seen any substantial influx of capital or macro positive news that could truly reverse the situation.
So, don’t get too excited just because you see a bit of red. My strategy is to use a small position to test the waters on those major assets that aren’t dropping further (like BTC, ETH), and it’s essential to set stop-loss orders. In case the funding rate turns downward again, it indicates that pessimistic sentiment has returned, and you need to run quickly.
In short, the market is like a spring that has been compressed for too long; just releasing it may not lead to a high bounce but might just cause a slight shake. A truly bouncing market requires more tangible fuel.

$GIGGLE This token has just demonstrated the kind of trend that smart investors would notice.
After dropping to around 161, it didn't crash—instead, it rebounded. This means that while most people felt scared and were selling off, some savvy buyers were quietly buying in.
Now it is stabilizing around the 164 mark, showing steady buying rather than weakness.
These slow and steady trends often signify the beginning of a recovery—not through hype, but through patience.
Here is a simple truth: those tokens that experience a big drop but then remain strong are often the ones that will surge when momentum shifts.
Experts recognized these signs long before others took notice.