李凯论趋势

4小时周期技术面显示，MACD指标中DIF与DEA虽仍处于零轴下方运行，但MACD柱状图负值持续收窄，表明空头动能释放趋缓、力度逐步衰减，市场已具备由下跌态势转向震荡反弹的技术条件，为多头布局提供指标层面的有效支撑。结合当前“暴跌后震荡整理”的盘面结构，价格大概率将向近期关键阻力位发起试探。

The high short strategy set up above 92500 for Bitcoin/Ethereum yesterday was executed accurately. After the short position took profit smoothly in the early hours, a long position was entered in succession, providing a considerable overall profit space. The current market, after rebounding from the lows, has fallen into a sideways consolidation, with balanced bullish and bearish momentum, showing insufficient trend continuation. The candlestick pattern exhibits characteristics of oscillation recovery after a sharp decline, with the daily line recording a long lower shadow, and initial buying support emerging from below, but the rebound momentum is weak, and upward strength is limited. From a technical perspective on the 4-hour cycle, both DIF and DEA are operating below the zero axis, and the MACD green bars are continuously shortening, indicating that bearish momentum is gradually weakening, and short-term downward pressure has eased.

Current market observation, the hourly cycle is showing alternating small bearish and bullish trends, and the fluctuation range continues to narrow, with market trading becoming more cautious. From a technical perspective, the Bollinger Bands are slightly contracting, and the oscillation space is further compressed; the KDJ indicator has formed a death cross at a high level, indicating initial short-term downward momentum; the MACD indicator shows bearish momentum prevailing, with short-term pullback pressure still present, but the medium to long-term upward trend structure remains intact with no substantial changes. In terms of operations, it is recommended to execute a high short and low long strategy based on the range rhythm, strictly control positions, and seize swing opportunities. $BTC

比特币及以太坊早盘行情复盘与策略建议

早盘比特币与以太坊走势完全契合前期预判，整体呈现窄幅震荡格局，行情演绎符合预期。比特币围绕90000关口双向波动，契合周末市场资金活跃度下降、进入盘整修复阶段的典型特征；以太坊走势与比特币保持同步，以区间整理修复为主，波动节奏趋于平缓。

盘面结构来看，小时周期呈现碎阴碎阳交替运行态势，价格波动区间收窄，市场交投情绪谨慎。技术层面，布林带呈现轻微收口态势，显示短期震荡区间进一步压缩；KDJ指标于高位形成死叉信号，短期下行动能初步释放；MACD指标空头动能阶段性占优，预示短期仍存回调需求，但中长期上行趋势未发生实质性改变，趋势结构保持完整。操作策略上，建议依托区间震荡格局执行高空低多操作，兼顾短期波动机会与中长期趋势方向。

Technical dimension analysis shows that Bitcoin and Ethereum's four-hour charts present a fragmented upward trend, essentially a technical recovery after previous declines, and have not yet formed a sustainable unilateral upward momentum. The Bollinger Bands continue to open downward, with prices under pressure below the middle band and lacking support from trading volume, maintaining a weak market pattern. The one-hour chart continues to show narrow fluctuations, with a balance in the long-short game and a lack of directional guidance. Coupled with the weekend's characteristic of light trading, the short-term market is likely to maintain fluctuations, with a low probability of breakthroughs.

From the current market observation, the short-term bearish momentum at the hourly level has not completely weakened, but the support zone of 89300-87600 has formed a resonance support band $BTC . This area overlaps with the previous dense transaction area and the volume accumulation area, making the support logic solid. If the price stabilizes in this range, and the daily level simultaneously shows a shrinking anti-fall candlestick pattern, the rebound momentum is expected to gradually accumulate. Considering the marginal convergence of market trading activity over the weekend, it is expected that the market will maintain a range-bound oscillation. If the validity of the support below is confirmed, there is still room for corrective upward movement, and it is advisable to continue to accumulate positions in batches after a pullback to the support zone while managing position control to cope with short-term market volatility risks.

Midnight Replenishment Bureau $BTC $ETH

Free Release $BTC $ETH

The pullback on Friday has occurred, current price directly long $BTC $ETH

The price of Bitcoin has fallen under pressure from the 92500 level, dipping to the 89500 area before entering a phase of horizontal consolidation. Ethereum's trend remains in sync with Bitcoin, continuing to decline from a high point of 3254 to a low point of 3041 before stabilizing. During the midnight period, one could consider positioning long orders based on the low-level retracement.

After the U.S. stock market opened in the evening, it continued the trend of opening high and falling low, which dragged the cryptocurrency market down simultaneously. Approaching midnight, Bitcoin began a sustained decline from around 92500, entering a consolidation phase after touching 89500. From a technical perspective, the 4-hour K-line has shown a significant bearish candle during the early morning hours, with both MACD and KDJ indicators displaying a bearish divergence pattern, while the coin price has formed a noticeable divergence gap with the MA5 moving average; the hourly structure indicates that the current downward momentum has not been fully released, and the short-term adjustment trend remains unchanged.

During the early morning period, it is essential to focus on the effectiveness of the defense of the support range between 89300-87600; if the coin price cannot effectively break through the key support level within this range, Bitcoin still has the potential for a phase rebound, but the expected rebound high will gradually decline, with upper resistance focusing on the 91300-92000 range. Overall, the market during the early morning is characterized by range fluctuations, and the operational strategy suggests prioritizing a short position at the rebound high, supplemented by cautious low-long operations, focusing on short-term swing opportunities.

The current 1-hour cycle shows a typical strong consolidation characteristic, with sufficient resilience during the price pullback. The Bollinger Bands continue to expand, and market momentum is being released in an orderly manner, with no signs of trend weakening. The correlation between ETH and BTC movements is significant, and mainstream cryptocurrencies are forming a directional resonance, further solidifying the market's overall bullish consensus. On a structural level, the current technical pattern is still dominated by bulls, with the upward structure remaining intact. Short-term pullbacks are a healthy correction within the trend's progression and do not disrupt the overall bullish outlook. In terms of operations, it is recommended to continue with the trend's main line layout, maintaining patience and confidence in holdings. One can selectively increase long positions based on key support areas to seize trading opportunities for the continuation of the upward trend after consolidation. During market fluctuations, trend strength often continues to strengthen amid consolidation. The current bullish pattern is clear and evident, and it is advisable to adopt a steady posture in line with the trend, waiting for the market to break upwards after sufficient consolidation.

From the current market perspective, Bitcoin has formed a solid support at the lower edge of the box around 92000. In the afternoon, the market maintains a narrow range fluctuation pattern, with prices consistently stabilizing above the key defense level of 91800 USD. The bullish attitude is positive, and in the long and short game, the dominance of the bulls gradually becomes prominent. As of now, the price has risen to around 92300 USD, positioned in the upper area of the box's center. The short-term moving averages show a flattening convergence trend, and trading volume has gently reduced during the fluctuation and consolidation phase. The technical indicators present a healthy accumulation pattern, laying the foundation for subsequent market breakthroughs.

In terms of technical indicators, the hourly MACD indicator shows a second golden cross signal above the zero axis, with a slight release of green momentum bars, and bearish momentum continues to weaken; the RSI indicator steadily rises from the 50 midpoint, with bullish momentum gradually accumulating, and short-term rebound momentum is strengthening. The key support range of 91800-92000 USD has been effectively stabilized after multiple tests, forming a clear “multi-pin bottom” candlestick structure. This range has become the core watershed of the short-term long and short game, with strong support effectiveness. Combining the logic of box fluctuation operation, if the price can consistently stand firm above 92300, breaking through the box's central pressure, it is expected to push upwards towards the box's upper edge pressure range of 93500-93800, with conditions for a continued upward trend. $BTC

From the perspective of market operation, in the 4-hour cycle, the price tested the short-term high in the morning and then fell back under pressure, subsequently entering a short-term correction market, having now closed in the red for two consecutive trading days. The price is currently running above the middle band of the Bollinger Bands, which maintain an upward arrangement. The middle band constitutes the core support level, while the upper band forms a critical resistance level. Overall, the upward structure has not undergone substantial changes. The 1-hour cycle shows a strong oscillation consolidation pattern, with sufficient resilience in the short-term trend. The opening of the Bollinger Bands continues to expand, and the upward momentum is released steadily and orderly, indicating strong trend continuity. Ethereum and Bitcoin show notable correlation in their price movements, with the direction of price movement highly aligned and significant sector synergy. Based on the analysis of multiple cycle technical features, the short-term trend pattern dominated by bulls remains solid. The operational strategy suggests continuing to build long positions during pullbacks, with opportunities to enter based on key support zones, $BTC $ETH

From the performance on the plate, at the 4-hour level, the price rose to a short-term high in the morning and then fell under pressure, entering a brief adjustment phase. Currently, the market is dominated by two consecutive bearish candles. The market is short-term operating above the middle track of the Bollinger Bands, with all three tracks of the Bollinger Bands maintaining an upward trend. The middle track and upper track form key support and resistance, respectively, and the overall upward structure remains unchanged. The 1-hour level shows a slightly strong oscillation pattern, with sufficient resilience in the short-term trend. The opening of the Bollinger Bands continues to expand, and the upward momentum is released steadily. Ethereum and Bitcoin show significant correlation in their trends, with a high degree of consistency in overall direction. Comprehensive technical analysis indicates that the short-term bullish trend is solid, and the operation suggestion is to continue the strategy of buying on dips, relying on key support levels to opportunely layout long positions, aligning with the current main trend.

The current market is in a fluctuating game pattern, requiring favorable factors to catalyze a breakthrough in the stalemate. In the four-hour cycle, the price fluctuates along the upper Bollinger band area, with morning pressure gradually diminishing the retracement momentum, now entering a technical repair and consolidation phase; the middle track of the Bollinger band forms strong support, with the price quickly rebounding after touching it, and the long lower shadow of the bottom fully demonstrates strong bullish support, reinforcing the rebound repair trend, with a robust upward structure. In the hourly cycle dimension, the price operates below the upper Bollinger band, showing a strong trend of three consecutive small bullish candles. Although short-term upward momentum has slightly slowed down, the overall focus is steadily rising, laying a solid foundation for the continuation of subsequent rebounds. It is recommended to follow the trend in operations, focusing on long positions, and to choose opportunities to intervene based on short-term key support levels, seizing trend-driven upward opportunities.

From the four-hour perspective, the price is fluctuating around the upper band of the Bollinger Bands, with the downward pressure gradually diminishing in the morning. The market has completely entered a phase of repair and consolidation. The middle band of the Bollinger Bands provides strong support, and the price quickly rebounds after touching this area. The long lower shadow candlestick at the bottom fully demonstrates the strong buying strength, and the rebound and repair trend continues to strengthen, maintaining a solid upward structure.

The one-hour trend is also improving, with the price operating below the upper band of the Bollinger Bands, showing a strong pattern of three consecutive small bullish candles. Although the upward momentum in the short term has slightly slowed down, the price center is steadily rising, laying a solid foundation for the continuation of the subsequent rebound trend. Currently, the short-term upward trend is clear, and the layout for the future is defined. It is recommended to go long in the direction of the trend, relying on short-term support levels to set up long positions and seize the opportunity for the continuation of the rebound trend.

The current market is in a recovery period after a pressured decline. The overall upward channel has been temporarily disrupted, and bullish momentum is gradually accumulating. Observing from the four-hour level, the previous strong attack based on double bullish candles has allowed the market to break from the lower Bollinger Band to the middle band area, briefly touching the upper band pressure before retreating for adjustment; this adjustment has mostly concluded. After the K-line touched the middle band support, it quickly rebounded, with the long lower shadow of the bottom highlighting the effectiveness of the support below, laying a solid foundation for subsequent rebound trends. At the hourly level, the three lines of the Bollinger Band are synchronously diverging upwards, with the K-line driving the market to oscillate upwards. The market's bullish trend is clear, and the upward rhythm is coherent and orderly.

From the current market perspective, the 4-hour technical pattern shows a clear bullish trend: the moving average system presents a standard bullish arrangement, with clear trend guidance; the MACD indicator has completed a golden cross and is turning, with the red energy bars continuously increasing, significantly enhancing bullish driving momentum. The price has effectively stood above the key support level of the middle band of the Bollinger Bands, and the RSI indicator is operating in a neutral to strong range, with bulls firmly in control of market dominance. This round of horizontal consolidation is a typical continuation pattern in an upward trend, and unless there is a fundamental reversal in the overall upward trend, once the consolidation period ends, the price is likely to break through the previous high points again.

The 1-hour level exhibits short-term consolidation characteristics: the price is suppressed by the range oscillation box, the opening of the Bollinger Bands channel continues to narrow, and the signals for a breakout are evident; the MACD indicator has turned upwards below the zero axis, initially forming a golden cross pattern, with short-term bullish counterattack signals already released. In terms of operational strategy, the focus remains on laying out bullish positions at low levels, with strict defense positions set to manage short-term volatility risks. $BTC

From the 4-hour perspective, Bitcoin quickly surged to previous highs with a strong bullish candle, followed by a slight pullback as it entered a high-level consolidation phase. The candlestick patterns show alternating bullish and bearish movements in a narrow range, with no deep retracement observed, confirming that the current bullish strength remains dominant. This round of sideways movement is clearly a continuation pattern within an upward trend. Against the backdrop of a well-structured overall upward trend, after the consolidation phase ends, the price is likely to attempt another breakout towards previous highs. In the 1-hour timeframe, the price continues to oscillate around the upper Bollinger Band, with the Bollinger Band opening gradually narrowing and market volatility significantly decreasing. This technical characteristic clearly indicates that a directional choice is imminent in the short-term market. In terms of trading strategy, it is recommended to continue to follow the trend and take long positions, gradually building up positions based on key support zones, accurately seizing trading opportunities brought by future upward breakouts, while also implementing risk control measures to respond to potential short-term directional shifts.

Bitcoin: It is recommended to build long positions near the 91800-91600 range, targeting 94000.

Ethereum: It is recommended to build long positions near the 3200-3190 range, targeting 3300.