斯海梦哥交易
公众号：【斯海梦哥交易 】擅长短中线合约以及现货埋伏。投研团队拥有专业的信息差捕捉Ai机器人，走狗庄的路，让狗庄无路可走
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I don't know how I found my way here, looking at the pictures, those who understand will understand!!
$ETH
$ETH
See original
In the past two months, I turned a small account of 2100U into 75,000 U. #比特币流动性
Many people's first reaction is: “Is it heavily invested? Is it a contract? Is it high frequency?
None of that. $PIPPIN
What I used is actually a very simple but stable method. $ZEC
I don’t look at K-lines, I don’t know MACD, RSI, nor do I do T, and I definitely don’t study any complex models.
What I do is only one thing: strictly follow a set of simple rules.
1. Stick to it, don’t average down, the position will only move 30%.
I don’t do short-term trading, nor do I watch the market. Market fluctuations are just noise to me.
In every trend, I only move at most 30% of my position.
If it rises, I lock in a bit of profit in batches;
If it doesn’t rise, I patiently hold on, and absolutely do not increase my position or average down out of emotion.
The benefit of doing this is:
You won’t be shaken out by back-and-forth fluctuations, nor will you be led by your emotions.
2. Only trade trends, only touch mainstream coins.
I only trade mainstream coins and never touch those small coins that rise 20% in a day and fall 30%.
Small coins are exciting, but most people make money on paper and lose it in operations.
When a trend appears, I follow the trend;
When the trend hasn’t reversed, I continue to hold.
It’s enough to catch a few decent trends a year.
There’s no need to trade every day.
3. Capital management is more important than judgment.
I never put all my money in at once.
The principal is divided into five parts, and I only use 1–2 parts each time.
When a trend emerges, I slowly increase.
If the trend is not confirmed, I absolutely do not bottom-fish in advance.
Many people don’t misjudge the market, but their positions are too heavy to withstand fluctuations.
What I do is not prediction, but execution.
Many people are technically stronger than me, and are more familiar with indicators.
But in the end, those who can make money are often not the best analysts, but the best executors.
I don’t guess the top, nor do I bet on the lowest point.
I only repeat one thing:
Follow the trend, control the position, and maintain discipline.
Real account records (only one withdrawal)
Early June: 2100 U
June 20: 12,000 U
July 6: 39,000 U
July 19: 75,000 U
This is not a gamble, nor is it luck.
It’s rolled out step by step.
During this time, many friends have followed the same approach,
Some have doubled their accounts, and some have simply transitioned to doing this full time.
If you also want to use a simple, replicable method that can be sustained long-term,
Follow me, and let’s slowly walk this path together.
Many people's first reaction is: “Is it heavily invested? Is it a contract? Is it high frequency?
None of that. $PIPPIN
What I used is actually a very simple but stable method. $ZEC
I don’t look at K-lines, I don’t know MACD, RSI, nor do I do T, and I definitely don’t study any complex models.
What I do is only one thing: strictly follow a set of simple rules.
1. Stick to it, don’t average down, the position will only move 30%.
I don’t do short-term trading, nor do I watch the market. Market fluctuations are just noise to me.
In every trend, I only move at most 30% of my position.
If it rises, I lock in a bit of profit in batches;
If it doesn’t rise, I patiently hold on, and absolutely do not increase my position or average down out of emotion.
The benefit of doing this is:
You won’t be shaken out by back-and-forth fluctuations, nor will you be led by your emotions.
2. Only trade trends, only touch mainstream coins.
I only trade mainstream coins and never touch those small coins that rise 20% in a day and fall 30%.
Small coins are exciting, but most people make money on paper and lose it in operations.
When a trend appears, I follow the trend;
When the trend hasn’t reversed, I continue to hold.
It’s enough to catch a few decent trends a year.
There’s no need to trade every day.
3. Capital management is more important than judgment.
I never put all my money in at once.
The principal is divided into five parts, and I only use 1–2 parts each time.
When a trend emerges, I slowly increase.
If the trend is not confirmed, I absolutely do not bottom-fish in advance.
Many people don’t misjudge the market, but their positions are too heavy to withstand fluctuations.
What I do is not prediction, but execution.
Many people are technically stronger than me, and are more familiar with indicators.
But in the end, those who can make money are often not the best analysts, but the best executors.
I don’t guess the top, nor do I bet on the lowest point.
I only repeat one thing:
Follow the trend, control the position, and maintain discipline.
Real account records (only one withdrawal)
Early June: 2100 U
June 20: 12,000 U
July 6: 39,000 U
July 19: 75,000 U
This is not a gamble, nor is it luck.
It’s rolled out step by step.
During this time, many friends have followed the same approach,
Some have doubled their accounts, and some have simply transitioned to doing this full time.
If you also want to use a simple, replicable method that can be sustained long-term,
Follow me, and let’s slowly walk this path together.
See original
Is there anyone continuing the strategy with Dream Brother? Real-time strategy in the square, 10 consecutive wins!
$BTC
#比特币流动性
$BTC
#比特币流动性
Large order inflows on-chain, I personally believe that at this position, even before a sell-off, there will be a surge. You can take a long position for a short-term swing trade; exit when the swing has doubled the position!
$ETH
$BTC
#比特币流动性 #美国非农数据超预期
$ETH
$BTC
#比特币流动性 #美国非农数据超预期
See original
Did Meng Ge call everyone this evening to pick up more Danzi? Those who lack vision can leave, but those with vision can continue to hold on!
$BTC $ETH
#比特币流动性
$BTC $ETH
#比特币流动性
SOLUSDT
Perp
50X
Opening Long
Unrealized PNL
+156.00%
See original
I still have SOL's Duodan, and I predict there will be an increase, it's highly unlikely to go directly down!
$SOL
#比特币流动性
$SOL
#比特币流动性
SOLUSDT
Perp
50X
Opening Long
Unrealized PNL
+156.00%
See original
Large order inflows on-chain, I personally believe that at this position, even before a sell-off, there will be a surge. You can take a long position for a short-term swing trade; exit when the swing has doubled the position!
$ETH
$BTC
#比特币流动性 #美国非农数据超预期
$ETH
$BTC
#比特币流动性 #美国非农数据超预期
Translate
日本央行如期加息 25 个基点，但市场并没有按很多人想象的那样继续恐慌下砸，反而走出了一波上涨。核心原因并不复杂——加息本身早就被市场提前消化，真正落地时，反而成了情绪修复的契机。
回顾历史可以发现，日本央行历次加息后，比特币出现的大幅回撤，几乎都不是当天发生，而是往往在几天之后才逐步显现。这一次也不例外。更值得关注的是日本央行行长的表态，整体明显偏向鹰派：如果经济运行符合预期，未来仍有继续提高利率的空间，只是具体节奏，需要在评估本次加息影响之后再做决定。
短期盘面情绪也开始被点燃。「BTC OG 内幕巨鲸」代理人公开喊话大涨，这类信号本质上就是在推升市场的短线预期。再叠加年末的圣诞效应，资金选择在这个时间窗口博一波反弹，其实是非常典型的年末行为。
站在一个看涨博主的角度，我的判断是：这波上涨是可以参与的，但前提是有节奏、有边界。当前更像是一轮情绪驱动的反弹，而不是趋势级别的反转。操作上，适合低位跟随、分批布局，尽量避免在情绪最亢奋的时候追高。
需要始终记住的是：圣诞前的反弹，并不代表风险已经结束。真正需要警惕的，往往是节后流动性回落，以及加息影响开始逐步传导到市场的时候。
行情永远不缺机会，缺的是对节奏的判断。
如果你想一起跟踪这些关键时间点的变化和盘中思路，可以进聊天室聊，很多判断，只有在盘中才能说得更清楚。
$BTC $ZEC $ETH
#比特币流动性 #美国非农数据超预期
回顾历史可以发现，日本央行历次加息后，比特币出现的大幅回撤，几乎都不是当天发生，而是往往在几天之后才逐步显现。这一次也不例外。更值得关注的是日本央行行长的表态，整体明显偏向鹰派：如果经济运行符合预期，未来仍有继续提高利率的空间，只是具体节奏，需要在评估本次加息影响之后再做决定。
短期盘面情绪也开始被点燃。「BTC OG 内幕巨鲸」代理人公开喊话大涨，这类信号本质上就是在推升市场的短线预期。再叠加年末的圣诞效应，资金选择在这个时间窗口博一波反弹，其实是非常典型的年末行为。
站在一个看涨博主的角度，我的判断是：这波上涨是可以参与的，但前提是有节奏、有边界。当前更像是一轮情绪驱动的反弹，而不是趋势级别的反转。操作上，适合低位跟随、分批布局，尽量避免在情绪最亢奋的时候追高。
需要始终记住的是：圣诞前的反弹，并不代表风险已经结束。真正需要警惕的，往往是节后流动性回落，以及加息影响开始逐步传导到市场的时候。
行情永远不缺机会，缺的是对节奏的判断。
如果你想一起跟踪这些关键时间点的变化和盘中思路，可以进聊天室聊，很多判断，只有在盘中才能说得更清楚。
$BTC $ZEC $ETH
#比特币流动性 #美国非农数据超预期
See original
US stocks opened 300 points higher, the market fluctuated but did not rise or fall, the dogs do not know what they are brewing, how will they harvest us!
$BTC $ETH
#美国非农数据超预期 #ETH走势分析
$BTC $ETH
#美国非农数据超预期 #ETH走势分析
See original
Last night, the square announced that the real-time strategy had already been flipped. The 9 Dan Square has a winning streak, all of which were announced in advance. Here, I remind newcomers that it's better to copy the square's homework than to rely on your own instincts to make trades! Also, prepare for the US stock market opening; the next Dan's strategy is being monitored by Meng Ge. If you need it, feel free to come and get it!!
$BTC $ETH $SOL
#美国非农数据超预期
$BTC $ETH $SOL
#美国非农数据超预期
It's been many days since the last real-time strategy was released, and it's here tonight!!! At 2:28 AM, the real-time strategy for the square is as follows: $SOL aggressive direct market price 123.1 for long, conservative limit 119.8 for long, swing trades should exit immediately!
The tasks have been prepared for everyone, feel free to copy!! Will this be the square's announcement of the real-time strategy's 9 consecutive wins??
$BTC $ETH
#美国非农数据超预期 #巨鲸动向
The tasks have been prepared for everyone, feel free to copy!! Will this be the square's announcement of the real-time strategy's 9 consecutive wins??
$BTC $ETH
#美国非农数据超预期 #巨鲸动向
See original
How to view the end of the year? From Japan's interest rate hike to the Christmas market, let's talk about the main line for the next six months.
As mentioned earlier, Japan's interest rate hike brings us back to the cryptocurrency market itself. From October until now, the market has undergone a historic level of liquidation, with leverage and sentiment being systematically cleared. Many people might wonder if this signifies the end of the market, but based on past experience, large-scale liquidations are often not the endpoint, but rather the starting point for the next phase.
The current timing is also crucial, as we enter the end of the year and approach Christmas. Historically, this period tends to experience what is known as the "Christmas market." The reasons are not complicated. On one hand, institutions need to rebalance their assets at year-end. This year, the volatility of risk assets has been significant, leading to a demand for replenishment in underweighted positions; on the other hand, year-end liquidity often shows marginal improvement. Once buying pressure is concentrated and released, prices are more easily pushed up. Therefore, the success rate of technical rebounds at year-end is usually higher than usual.
If we extend our perspective to the first quarter of 2026, which is about the next six months, the imaginative space during this period is even greater. The current market is gradually forming several consensus points: First, the policy direction of major global central banks is transitioning from tightening to easing, with funds placing more emphasis on expectations rather than already occurred facts; second, the U.S. Treasury's TGA is releasing liquidity, with funds flowing back into the market, providing direct support for risk assets; third, as the new fiscal year begins, institutions need to reposition themselves, with passive and active funds entering the market simultaneously, often amplifying market volatility.
In this phase, I am more inclined to suggest focusing on Bitcoin and Ethereum because, once sentiment is ignited, the first choices for funds will always be these two directions, and the main upward wave often starts here.
Finally, it's worth noting that the market never arrives suddenly; it only rewards those who have already positioned themselves well during the worst market sentiment. The decline in December essentially provides ample time and price windows. There is no need to pursue buying at the lowest point; gradually aligning positions towards BTC and ETH while allowing patience for time is often more important than frequent trading.
$BTC $ETH $SOL
#美国非农数据超预期 #加密市场观察 #BinanceABCs
As mentioned earlier, Japan's interest rate hike brings us back to the cryptocurrency market itself. From October until now, the market has undergone a historic level of liquidation, with leverage and sentiment being systematically cleared. Many people might wonder if this signifies the end of the market, but based on past experience, large-scale liquidations are often not the endpoint, but rather the starting point for the next phase.
The current timing is also crucial, as we enter the end of the year and approach Christmas. Historically, this period tends to experience what is known as the "Christmas market." The reasons are not complicated. On one hand, institutions need to rebalance their assets at year-end. This year, the volatility of risk assets has been significant, leading to a demand for replenishment in underweighted positions; on the other hand, year-end liquidity often shows marginal improvement. Once buying pressure is concentrated and released, prices are more easily pushed up. Therefore, the success rate of technical rebounds at year-end is usually higher than usual.
If we extend our perspective to the first quarter of 2026, which is about the next six months, the imaginative space during this period is even greater. The current market is gradually forming several consensus points: First, the policy direction of major global central banks is transitioning from tightening to easing, with funds placing more emphasis on expectations rather than already occurred facts; second, the U.S. Treasury's TGA is releasing liquidity, with funds flowing back into the market, providing direct support for risk assets; third, as the new fiscal year begins, institutions need to reposition themselves, with passive and active funds entering the market simultaneously, often amplifying market volatility.
In this phase, I am more inclined to suggest focusing on Bitcoin and Ethereum because, once sentiment is ignited, the first choices for funds will always be these two directions, and the main upward wave often starts here.
Finally, it's worth noting that the market never arrives suddenly; it only rewards those who have already positioned themselves well during the worst market sentiment. The decline in December essentially provides ample time and price windows. There is no need to pursue buying at the lowest point; gradually aligning positions towards BTC and ETH while allowing patience for time is often more important than frequent trading.
$BTC $ETH $SOL
#美国非农数据超预期 #加密市场观察 #BinanceABCs
Brothers, today we won't shout slogans or get emotional; let's calmly dissect the issue with the Bank of Japan.
On December 19, the Bank of Japan raised interest rates by 25 basis points, which frankly has already become a clear signal. What is truly valuable now is not whether to raise interest rates, but whether last night's market reaction has already priced in expectations.
Let's briefly review the history, focusing on facts rather than emotions.
During the Bank of Japan's last three interest rate hike cycles, Bitcoin's performance was not friendly:
In March 2024, BTC retraced about 24%;
In July 2024, BTC retraced nearly 30%;
In January 2025, BTC retraced over 32%.
Once could be seen as a coincidence, twice could still be debated, but three times grouped together becomes a pattern. So the question is not 'will it rise,' but a more realistic question: Will there be a similar scenario again in December 2025?
What I personally worry about the most has never been the news itself. The real danger lies in the state of many people in the market now—assuming that the bad news has already been fully priced in and starting to get overly optimistic. You'll notice that more and more people are not waiting for support or retracement, but are going all in, hoping that 'once the boot drops, it'll take off.'
During such times, it is often the easiest to encounter problems.
The logic of seasoned investors is actually very simple:
Do not bet on direction, only respond;
Do not go all in, only keep some bullets;
Do not rush to catch the first rebound, wait for the market to provide a real opportunity.
When the market gives opportunities, I will definitely be there;
But before that, surviving is more important than anything else.
Many new friends often think that experts make big money by predicting. The truth is, those who can survive one major event after another are the ones who deserve to discuss the next market cycle. Being able to wait, endure, and hold cash is a strength in itself.
Last night's drop has left many stuck in a sideways market; those who are trapped can come; those who cannot see the direction can also come; those who do not know the support levels can still come, and the chat room welcomes you!
$BTC $ETH $SOL #美国非农数据超预期 #美SEC推动加密创新监管
On December 19, the Bank of Japan raised interest rates by 25 basis points, which frankly has already become a clear signal. What is truly valuable now is not whether to raise interest rates, but whether last night's market reaction has already priced in expectations.
Let's briefly review the history, focusing on facts rather than emotions.
During the Bank of Japan's last three interest rate hike cycles, Bitcoin's performance was not friendly:
In March 2024, BTC retraced about 24%;
In July 2024, BTC retraced nearly 30%;
In January 2025, BTC retraced over 32%.
Once could be seen as a coincidence, twice could still be debated, but three times grouped together becomes a pattern. So the question is not 'will it rise,' but a more realistic question: Will there be a similar scenario again in December 2025?
What I personally worry about the most has never been the news itself. The real danger lies in the state of many people in the market now—assuming that the bad news has already been fully priced in and starting to get overly optimistic. You'll notice that more and more people are not waiting for support or retracement, but are going all in, hoping that 'once the boot drops, it'll take off.'
During such times, it is often the easiest to encounter problems.
The logic of seasoned investors is actually very simple:
Do not bet on direction, only respond;
Do not go all in, only keep some bullets;
Do not rush to catch the first rebound, wait for the market to provide a real opportunity.
When the market gives opportunities, I will definitely be there;
But before that, surviving is more important than anything else.
Many new friends often think that experts make big money by predicting. The truth is, those who can survive one major event after another are the ones who deserve to discuss the next market cycle. Being able to wait, endure, and hold cash is a strength in itself.
Last night's drop has left many stuck in a sideways market; those who are trapped can come; those who cannot see the direction can also come; those who do not know the support levels can still come, and the chat room welcomes you!
$BTC $ETH $SOL #美国非农数据超预期 #美SEC推动加密创新监管
See original
"The Insider Whale of 1011" has been increasing its long positions on Dan today, and there are rumors that he is the son of Huangmao!!
$BTC $ETH $SOL
$BTC $ETH $SOL
See original
To be honest, today's SOL performance compared to Bitcoin is really weak. I'm preparing to exit my SOL position to break even. It’s not wrong to say that the trend is rebounding slightly. Both Bitcoin and Ethereum have rebounded, but only SOL! I'm speechless; I bought into loneliness!
$SOL $BTC $ETH
#美国非农数据超预期 #巨鲸动向
$SOL $BTC $ETH
#美国非农数据超预期 #巨鲸动向
SOLUSDT
Perp
50X
Opening Long
Unrealized PNL
+156.00%
See original
Brothers, today we won't shout slogans or get emotional; let's calmly dissect the issue with the Bank of Japan.
On December 19, the Bank of Japan raised interest rates by 25 basis points, which frankly has already become a clear signal. What is truly valuable now is not whether to raise interest rates, but whether last night's market reaction has already priced in expectations.
Let's briefly review the history, focusing on facts rather than emotions.
During the Bank of Japan's last three interest rate hike cycles, Bitcoin's performance was not friendly:
In March 2024, BTC retraced about 24%;
In July 2024, BTC retraced nearly 30%;
In January 2025, BTC retraced over 32%.
Once could be seen as a coincidence, twice could still be debated, but three times grouped together becomes a pattern. So the question is not 'will it rise,' but a more realistic question: Will there be a similar scenario again in December 2025?
What I personally worry about the most has never been the news itself. The real danger lies in the state of many people in the market now—assuming that the bad news has already been fully priced in and starting to get overly optimistic. You'll notice that more and more people are not waiting for support or retracement, but are going all in, hoping that 'once the boot drops, it'll take off.'
During such times, it is often the easiest to encounter problems.
The logic of seasoned investors is actually very simple:
Do not bet on direction, only respond;
Do not go all in, only keep some bullets;
Do not rush to catch the first rebound, wait for the market to provide a real opportunity.
When the market gives opportunities, I will definitely be there;
But before that, surviving is more important than anything else.
Many new friends often think that experts make big money by predicting. The truth is, those who can survive one major event after another are the ones who deserve to discuss the next market cycle. Being able to wait, endure, and hold cash is a strength in itself.
Last night's drop has left many stuck in a sideways market; those who are trapped can come; those who cannot see the direction can also come; those who do not know the support levels can still come, and the chat room welcomes you!
$BTC $ETH $SOL #美国非农数据超预期 #美SEC推动加密创新监管
On December 19, the Bank of Japan raised interest rates by 25 basis points, which frankly has already become a clear signal. What is truly valuable now is not whether to raise interest rates, but whether last night's market reaction has already priced in expectations.
Let's briefly review the history, focusing on facts rather than emotions.
During the Bank of Japan's last three interest rate hike cycles, Bitcoin's performance was not friendly:
In March 2024, BTC retraced about 24%;
In July 2024, BTC retraced nearly 30%;
In January 2025, BTC retraced over 32%.
Once could be seen as a coincidence, twice could still be debated, but three times grouped together becomes a pattern. So the question is not 'will it rise,' but a more realistic question: Will there be a similar scenario again in December 2025?
What I personally worry about the most has never been the news itself. The real danger lies in the state of many people in the market now—assuming that the bad news has already been fully priced in and starting to get overly optimistic. You'll notice that more and more people are not waiting for support or retracement, but are going all in, hoping that 'once the boot drops, it'll take off.'
During such times, it is often the easiest to encounter problems.
The logic of seasoned investors is actually very simple:
Do not bet on direction, only respond;
Do not go all in, only keep some bullets;
Do not rush to catch the first rebound, wait for the market to provide a real opportunity.
When the market gives opportunities, I will definitely be there;
But before that, surviving is more important than anything else.
Many new friends often think that experts make big money by predicting. The truth is, those who can survive one major event after another are the ones who deserve to discuss the next market cycle. Being able to wait, endure, and hold cash is a strength in itself.
Last night's drop has left many stuck in a sideways market; those who are trapped can come; those who cannot see the direction can also come; those who do not know the support levels can still come, and the chat room welcomes you!
$BTC $ETH $SOL #美国非农数据超预期 #美SEC推动加密创新监管
See original
It's been many days since the last real-time strategy was released, and it's here tonight!!! At 2:28 AM, the real-time strategy for the square is as follows: $SOL aggressive direct market price 123.1 for long, conservative limit 119.8 for long, swing trades should exit immediately!
The tasks have been prepared for everyone, feel free to copy!! Will this be the square's announcement of the real-time strategy's 9 consecutive wins??
$BTC $ETH
#美国非农数据超预期 #巨鲸动向
The tasks have been prepared for everyone, feel free to copy!! Will this be the square's announcement of the real-time strategy's 9 consecutive wins??
$BTC $ETH
#美国非农数据超预期 #巨鲸动向
SOLUSDT
Perp
50X
Opening Long
Unrealized PNL
+156.00%
See original
Let me briefly go over the news from the past couple of days and share my current thoughts #美国非农数据超预期
$ETH
Yesterday's unemployment rate was higher than expected and reached a nearly four-year high. According to textbook logic, this is a definite positive, indicating that the economy is cooling down, and there is more room for interest rate cuts in the future. However, you will find that Bitcoin has hardly reacted at all, neither rising nor falling #巨鲸动向
The reason is actually not complicated—money has already hidden away in advance.
Because this week, there are still two bombs hanging over our heads, and funds are unwilling to take a stance before the results come out.
The first bomb is the CPI at 21:30 tomorrow night.
This data needs no further explanation; it is one of the most sensitive indicators in the market.
Higher than expected: clearly negative, lower than expected: clearly positive.
The second bomb is the Japanese central bank's interest rate decision on Friday.
The current consensus in the market is: a rate hike of 25bp (about 70% probability), which is within expectations; the impact has mostly been digested in the recent downturn.
If the rate hike is ≥50bp (about 31% probability), then it is no small matter, and BTC could potentially fall below 80,000.
One thing is certain: the closer we get to these two time points, the more "fragile" Bitcoin will be.
The market may not have fallen much, but sentiments will collapse first, and panic will be infinitely amplified. In the short term, if it falls below 85,000, and Ethereum breaks below this week's previous low, it's not completely impossible.
But to be complete, if the CPI brings good news, along with a smooth interest rate hike from the Japanese central bank, without any surprises, then the sentiment will reverse very quickly. At that time, Bitcoin will likely regain 90,000 in no time.
In this kind of volatile market with major events, the most common mistake is: being forced by emotions to cut losses at the bottom.
The cruelest part of the market is that it doesn’t necessarily decline a lot, but it will make you "think it will continue to fall." Once you can’t hold on and sell, it will reverse and rise.
My strategy has always been simple, with no fancy tricks: don’t chase highs, don’t panic, and keep good bullets. There are always people who get liquidated in every round, but the cycle only rewards those who remain calm.
This month’s performance has been passable, but ultimately, the market is not won by words; it’s earned through discipline and patience.
My stage is always reserved for those with vision, ambition, and the ability to endure.
Let’s encourage each other. $BTC $SOL
$ETH
Yesterday's unemployment rate was higher than expected and reached a nearly four-year high. According to textbook logic, this is a definite positive, indicating that the economy is cooling down, and there is more room for interest rate cuts in the future. However, you will find that Bitcoin has hardly reacted at all, neither rising nor falling #巨鲸动向
The reason is actually not complicated—money has already hidden away in advance.
Because this week, there are still two bombs hanging over our heads, and funds are unwilling to take a stance before the results come out.
The first bomb is the CPI at 21:30 tomorrow night.
This data needs no further explanation; it is one of the most sensitive indicators in the market.
Higher than expected: clearly negative, lower than expected: clearly positive.
The second bomb is the Japanese central bank's interest rate decision on Friday.
The current consensus in the market is: a rate hike of 25bp (about 70% probability), which is within expectations; the impact has mostly been digested in the recent downturn.
If the rate hike is ≥50bp (about 31% probability), then it is no small matter, and BTC could potentially fall below 80,000.
One thing is certain: the closer we get to these two time points, the more "fragile" Bitcoin will be.
The market may not have fallen much, but sentiments will collapse first, and panic will be infinitely amplified. In the short term, if it falls below 85,000, and Ethereum breaks below this week's previous low, it's not completely impossible.
But to be complete, if the CPI brings good news, along with a smooth interest rate hike from the Japanese central bank, without any surprises, then the sentiment will reverse very quickly. At that time, Bitcoin will likely regain 90,000 in no time.
In this kind of volatile market with major events, the most common mistake is: being forced by emotions to cut losses at the bottom.
The cruelest part of the market is that it doesn’t necessarily decline a lot, but it will make you "think it will continue to fall." Once you can’t hold on and sell, it will reverse and rise.
My strategy has always been simple, with no fancy tricks: don’t chase highs, don’t panic, and keep good bullets. There are always people who get liquidated in every round, but the cycle only rewards those who remain calm.
This month’s performance has been passable, but ultimately, the market is not won by words; it’s earned through discipline and patience.
My stage is always reserved for those with vision, ambition, and the ability to endure.
Let’s encourage each other. $BTC $SOL
See original
$SOL The market is exhausting, it has been sideways for a day and a night and another day!! Just did a SOL swing yesterday, the rest are all in cash status, let's see tonight!!
$BTC $ETH
#美国非农数据超预期 #巨鲸动向
$BTC $ETH
#美国非农数据超预期 #巨鲸动向
See original
Don't rush to be bearish: Data is relatively strong, and the market is closer to a "soft landing"
The recently released U.S. data is overall better than market expectations. The first reaction for many might be to consider this a negative for risk assets, but from a more neutral perspective, this may not be a bad thing; rather, it could be a moderately positive development.
The reason is that what the current market truly fears is not an economy that is "too good," but rather an economy that "suddenly stalls."
1. Strong data confirms a "soft landing," not a return to tightening
Data exceeding expectations indicates that employment and consumption remain resilient, which is closer to a "soft landing" scenario rather than a recession environment that requires urgent stimulus.
In this context, the Federal Reserve may slow the pace of interest rate cuts, but the direction has not changed; policy has shifted from "whether to cut rates" to "when and by how much to cut."
As long as interest rates are in a downward channel, even if the pace slows, it does not constitute a systemic blow to risk assets.
2. Revised interest rate cut expectations are favorable for the market to go further
For the cryptocurrency market, the most dangerous scenario is not the compression of expectations, but rather the over-leveraging of expectations.
Strong data can actually help the market:
- Squeeze out short-term overheated optimistic sentiment
- Clean up some high leverage and chasing funds
- Make the upward structure healthier
This "expectation correction" does not equate to a trend reversal.
3. Economic resilience makes funds more willing to allocate to risk assets
When economic data shows stability, funds will not rush to fully hedge. On the contrary, under the premise that there is no systemic recession risk, some funds will be more willing to allocate to high-elasticity assets during pullbacks, and cryptocurrency assets possess this characteristic.
From this perspective, strong data has not cut off the logic of funds entering risk assets; it has only made the entry approach more rational.
4. The impact of Japan's interest rate hike expectations is overestimated
Market concerns about Japan's interest rate hikes are more reflected in the medium to long term, rather than immediately withdrawing global liquidity. As long as this process is slow and predictable, it will be difficult to change the overall risk appetite direction in the short term.
From the bullish perspective of the cryptocurrency market, this data exceeding expectations feels more like a "cooling rather than a turning point":
Short-term volatility may occur, but the medium-term structure remains intact, which is conducive to a more stable and longer-lasting market
$ETH
The recently released U.S. data is overall better than market expectations. The first reaction for many might be to consider this a negative for risk assets, but from a more neutral perspective, this may not be a bad thing; rather, it could be a moderately positive development.
The reason is that what the current market truly fears is not an economy that is "too good," but rather an economy that "suddenly stalls."
1. Strong data confirms a "soft landing," not a return to tightening
Data exceeding expectations indicates that employment and consumption remain resilient, which is closer to a "soft landing" scenario rather than a recession environment that requires urgent stimulus.
In this context, the Federal Reserve may slow the pace of interest rate cuts, but the direction has not changed; policy has shifted from "whether to cut rates" to "when and by how much to cut."
As long as interest rates are in a downward channel, even if the pace slows, it does not constitute a systemic blow to risk assets.
2. Revised interest rate cut expectations are favorable for the market to go further
For the cryptocurrency market, the most dangerous scenario is not the compression of expectations, but rather the over-leveraging of expectations.
Strong data can actually help the market:
- Squeeze out short-term overheated optimistic sentiment
- Clean up some high leverage and chasing funds
- Make the upward structure healthier
This "expectation correction" does not equate to a trend reversal.
3. Economic resilience makes funds more willing to allocate to risk assets
When economic data shows stability, funds will not rush to fully hedge. On the contrary, under the premise that there is no systemic recession risk, some funds will be more willing to allocate to high-elasticity assets during pullbacks, and cryptocurrency assets possess this characteristic.
From this perspective, strong data has not cut off the logic of funds entering risk assets; it has only made the entry approach more rational.
4. The impact of Japan's interest rate hike expectations is overestimated
Market concerns about Japan's interest rate hikes are more reflected in the medium to long term, rather than immediately withdrawing global liquidity. As long as this process is slow and predictable, it will be difficult to change the overall risk appetite direction in the short term.
From the bullish perspective of the cryptocurrency market, this data exceeding expectations feels more like a "cooling rather than a turning point":
Short-term volatility may occur, but the medium-term structure remains intact, which is conducive to a more stable and longer-lasting market
$ETH
See original
Everyone, a few hours ago, Meng Ge told you not to go long, right? At that time, Ethereum was at 2983, and then it continued to drop, dropping to 2890. It has rebounded a bit and is currently hovering around 2940. To be honest, if you have been following Meng Ge's posts for trading, you basically won't incur any losses!! I am still in a short position, and I will wait for the US stock market to close before considering entering the market!!
$BTC $ETH $SOL #巨鲸动向 #美SEC推动加密创新监管
$BTC $ETH $SOL #巨鲸动向 #美SEC推动加密创新监管
Everyone, this wave of selling was mainly caused by the emotional sell-off due to the interest rate hike in Japan, so Meng Ge has been observing and hasn't provided a strategy at the plaza. At this moment, Meng Ge still won't consider entering to buy long. I'll wait until between 4 AM and 6 AM, and if it has stabilized by then, I will buy long at that time!!
$BTC $ETH $SOL
#巨鲸动向
$BTC $ETH $SOL
#巨鲸动向
See original
Everyone, this wave of selling was mainly caused by the emotional sell-off due to the interest rate hike in Japan, so Meng Ge has been observing and hasn't provided a strategy at the plaza. At this moment, Meng Ge still won't consider entering to buy long. I'll wait until between 4 AM and 6 AM, and if it has stabilized by then, I will buy long at that time!!
$BTC $ETH $SOL
#巨鲸动向
$BTC $ETH $SOL
#巨鲸动向
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