海绵进化论

Private message method, just scan the Binance QR code

Many people feel that BTC has risen too quickly in recent days, soaring to 80,000, as many expected the 80,000 mark to take a couple of months, but it arrived in just a week.

In the first half of the year, I repeatedly emphasized the characteristics of this bull market: 1 is that it rises without looking back, focusing on being light and easy to pull, making you hesitant to get on board; 2 is that it moves sideways in a cruel manner, neither going up nor down, focusing on torment, making it difficult for you to go long or short.

Currently, from the perspective of the slope of the moving averages, it is indeed very high, and there is a demand for consolidation or pullback for repair. However, having demand does not mean that it must be met. Right now, the big pie has completed a bullish trend resonance from small levels to large levels, and to disrupt this resonance, it has to be destroyed step by step from small levels to large levels, and it is clear that the current bears do not possess such power.

Organized the core benefits of Solana for December

1. Revolut natively integrates Solana
65 million users can directly use SOL/USDC/USDT for payments, transfers, withdrawals, and one-click staking, truly bringing Solana into everyday finance.

http://2. The institutional tide officially begins
Vanguard (11 trillion AUM) lifts restrictions on SOL ETF, allowing 50 million clients to trade
VanEck SOL ETF is custodied by Gemini, compliant + 1:1 endorsement
The SOL ETF has seen net inflows for 19 consecutive days, with a single-day high of 13.55 million USD in December (the only positive inflow in the entire market)
SkyBridge founder: In the next 5 years, only 3-4 public chains will remain, and Solana will definitely be among them.
3. Major technical upgrades

v1.18 has been launched, significantly alleviating congestion
Alpenglow consensus is in testing, with a finality target of 150-400ms (approaching centralized exchange levels)
Monthly active developers exceed 30,000, with 1,276 full-time employees, firmly in second place among public chains.

4. Cross-chain and RWA skyrocketing
Base×Solana bridge (Chainlink CCIP) is now live on the mainnet
RWA, prediction markets, and DeFi projects are taking off collectively (Solend, Jupiter, Orca, DFlow, etc.)

5. Anatoly's latest statement (December 5)
"The total market cap of crypto will continue to rise, but it will be redistributed based on revenue; only the winners will survive." — A stark declaration of “winner takes all.”
Price analysis indicates we are near the W bottom neckline (≈170 USD), HODLer selling has nearly exhausted, and NUPL has entered the surrender zone (historical bottom signal). Continuous inflow into ETFs provides a solid bottom, a breakthrough is imminent; if blocked, support levels are 128-137 USD. The mainstream view remains bullish.

ZEC has rebounded to the resistance level near 420, it can short again, and a short position has been set between 400-430, with a stop loss at 440.

This month has two major events: US interest rate cuts vs Japanese interest rate hikes

The US stock market has been impacted by expectations of a Japanese interest rate hike, with the S&P 500 index falling by 0.5% on December 2, and the Dow Jones index declining by 0.9%. BTC also retraced by more than 6%.

Subsequently, BTC rebounded again and fluctuated around 94000.

The expectations for interest rate cuts have already been priced in, and now we are maintaining fluctuations to digest the impact of the Japanese interest rate hike.

Once a rate hike is confirmed, there may be a chance of a short-term low.

Historically, in August 2024, a Japanese interest rate hike triggered the unwinding of yen carry trades, leading to a huge shock in the US stock market due to capital withdrawal.

This time, the expectations for Japanese interest rate hikes and US interest rate cuts overlap, leading to a rapid narrowing of the interest rate differential between Japan and the US. The arbitrage logic of "borrowing yen to invest in US stocks" becomes ineffective, and investors close their positions and withdraw funds, which will further exacerbate the volatility of high-valuation sectors such as US tech stocks.

Looking back, under Japan's long-term ultra-loose policy, a large amount of yen carry trade funds flowed into the cryptocurrency market.

In August 2024, the Japanese interest rate hike triggered BTC fluctuations due to the unwinding of carry trades. Under the current expectations of a Japanese interest rate hike, the appreciation of the yen increases arbitrage costs and reduces returns, accelerating the withdrawal of capital from risk assets such as BTC, coupled with tightening global liquidity, necessitating vigilance against related risks!

Current three major catalysts: QT policy termination releases liquidity, Vanguard opens ETF trading for 50 million+ clients, ETH Fusaka upgrade successfully completed.

$BTC 94000-97000 pressure zone is not so easy to break through, it needs some time, let's see how the US dollar depreciation looks, will institutions let go of the opportunity to buy at low positions?

$ETH strongly challenges 3200, fails, it needs to be polished, Bitcoin hasn't broken through, making Ethereum lead the charge is indeed difficult for it.

$BNB He Yi takes the position of co-CEO, I don't understand what this means, I always thought she was already one step below, unexpectedly she can still be promoted, perhaps the nominal value is a bit more?

$SOL ETF shows signs of net outflow, waiting for a breakthrough, can only say it's not the right time.

12.5 Bitcoin and Ethereum Market Analysis: BTC, ETH Highlights for Today
Market Review
Yesterday, BTC maintained consolidation, with a positive trend likely due to the Federal Reserve announcing the end of QT, restoring market sentiment. The 4-hour trend has improved, and positions can continue to be held while waiting for a breakout. The fear index has returned to panic levels, and the daily chart has started to improve. Expectations for interest rate cuts in December have resumed, with the possibility of continued reductions. Attention should be paid to the fundamentals, and the weekly trend remains relatively healthy, suggesting a phased entry while waiting for stabilization and upward movement.
Altcoins are consolidating in sync with Bitcoin, with the 4-hour trend improving. The daily chart has broken the downward trend, and after stabilizing, it is expected to rise further.
Altcoins are following mainstream coins and remain in consolidation, with overall liquidity still relatively poor. Waiting for altcoins to stabilize before considering moves. Alpha activity points requirements are getting higher, and point accumulation has been suspended, awaiting a reduction in point requirements before considering a restart.
Intraday Market Analysis
BTC 1-hour and 4-hour levels have returned to a healthy range, and the daily level has also returned to a healthy range. The intraday expectation is for sideways consolidation, waiting for stabilization. The intraday support is at 91000-92000, and resistance is at 94000-95000.
ETH 1-hour and 4-hour levels are above the healthy range, the daily level has returned to a healthy range, and the intraday expectation is for sideways consolidation, waiting for stabilization. The intraday support is at 3050-3150, and resistance is at 3250-3350.

Current Situation
1⃣It seems that the market is rising, and indeed it is, but no one is making money
2⃣When the market rises, altcoins do not rise; when the market falls, altcoins plummet
3⃣There is almost no profit effect in primary and secondary markets
4⃣Altcoins show no signs of a general rise
5⃣The rise of altcoins is basically just a one-wave flow
6⃣There are no signs of sector rotation
7⃣The resolution of altcoin positions is still a long way off ​​​

I found that many brothers play 土狗 meme just to get a hundred times the coin and become rich in one go, this kind of thinking is wrong!

This concept is completely influenced by the survivor bias of the entire sector, or by being overly exposed to the boastful KOL traffic posts.

Although 土狗 is called 土狗, it is actually not at all 土, but rather one of the most difficult to play in the entire crypto circle, with an investment complexity much higher than that of altcoins and other sectors.

Playing 土狗 = narrative ability + hot topics + information asymmetry + timing + market liquidity + capital games + emotional management + luck.

Although there are many 土狗 projects and the trading frequency is fast, it is not easy to eat a hundred times or a thousand times the big dog, as it may be the accumulation of dozens or hundreds of failures behind it.

Even if you occasionally get high returns from a big dog once or twice, that is just luck; the real core is how to improve your meager win rate of two to three percent.

The 土狗 sector is not a short-term quick profit investment path, but a long-term process that requires high-intensity games.

SOL is becoming more like the former ETH, perhaps how ETH developed in the past, SOL will develop in the same way.

I have always been curious why the much-rumored SOL Foundation god-tier project from last year has completely disappeared this year. The most absurd thing is that the SOL Foundation's attitude is clearly no longer dedicated to developing memes, which was its original path to success. When BSC memes were jumping so fiercely, they didn't take drastic actions, but instead kept mentioning ICM, CCM... which sound more formal.

I have thought about this issue for a long time, and my final conclusion is: memes have completed their historical mission in the SOL Foundation's positioning, and they now need to go ashore. It's like the first-tier p-marshal made a lot of money through meme pvp and started talking about US stocks, second-tier, and value investment. Accumulating original capital and beginning to squeeze into the old money circle is the way forward.

Memes on BSC have started to resemble the former SOL memes.

History does not simply repeat itself, but it does rhyme.

Under the favorable stimulus of the Fusaka upgrade, the ETH/BTC exchange rate has broken through the short-term supply line, and it is optimistic to expect a rebound to near the long-term supply line. Correspondingly, ETH may rebound to above 3600.

Although the Fusaka upgrade is indeed powerful, its impact is mainly in the next bull market. Against the backdrop of an already arrived bear market, the uplifting effect of the Fusaka upgrade on ETH prices is limited, and one should not have overly high expectations.

The market for Bnbchain may have already started

But currently, there is no asset that can reach the heights of the previous round $giggle, $Binance Life, and $4

Among these three, except for $4, they can basically all trigger great debates

However, what I see now are just repetitions of some previously appeared small hotspots

In any case

It is necessary to start warming up to look at the chain

Stick to a few well-known points;

1. Good things always give enough time to get in;

2. Speed still remains the primary productivity;

3. The last few days of each round are likely to result in losses;

4. Sell when the market is at its most FOMO

Currently, we are only in the PVP stage. If nothing new comes out, it will likely just revolve around Binance, which is not very interesting.

Early analysis of the chart, three段式回踩反弹, the first two times touching the declining trendline nearby and then falling, what about this time?

After the first decline, a rebound of 12%, taking 10 days
After the second decline, a rebound of 10%, taking a week
After the third decline, a rebound of 16%, currently taking 12 days

At this stage, it is still around the previous fluctuation range near 93000, with a dense area of chips above around 96000. Currently, a rate cut rebound market is happening, with a significant rebound, although there are opportunities, caution is needed when chasing highs.

From the liquidation map, there is demand for liquidation around 96000 above, while there is demand for a pullback to 90000 and 88000 below. Generally, key positions will be repeatedly tested before breaking through, and key positions are also opportunity positions.

Yesterday, the trading volume of Bitcoin on Coinbase significantly decreased during the rebound, indicating that the participation of institutions and compliant funds in this rebound is not strong. This can also be seen from the performance of the Bitcoin ETF.

Therefore, there is still some uncertainty regarding whether Bitcoin can break through the resistance level of 96,000 in the short term; for now, we can only take it one step at a time.

12.4 Bitcoin and Ethereum Market Analysis: BTC, ETH Highlights Today
Market Review
Yesterday, BTC maintained consolidation with a slight increase, possibly due to the Federal Reserve announcing the end of QT, leading to a recovery in market sentiment. The 4-hour trend has improved, and built positions can continue to be held while waiting for a market breakthrough. The fear index has returned to panic levels, and the daily level is starting to improve. Expectations for a rate cut in December have resumed, and further cuts are anticipated. Attention should be paid to fundamental conditions. The weekly trend remains relatively healthy, and gradual entry can be considered while waiting for stabilization and a rise.
Altcoins are following Bitcoin's upward trend, with the 4-hour trend improving and the daily level breaking the downtrend, likely to continue rising after stabilization.
Altcoins are following mainstream cryptocurrencies with a slight increase, but overall liquidity remains poor. Waiting for altcoins to stabilize before making considerations. Alpha activity point requirements are increasing, and point accumulation has been suspended, waiting for a reduction in point requirements before considering a restart.
Intraday Market Analysis
BTC is back in a healthy range on the 1-hour and 4-hour levels, and the daily level is back in a healthy range. The intraday expectation is for sideways consolidation while waiting for stabilization. Intraday support is at 92000-93000, and resistance is at 94000-95000.
ETH is above the healthy range on the 1-hour and 4-hour levels, and the daily level is back in a healthy range. The intraday expectation is for sideways consolidation while waiting for stabilization. Intraday support is at 3050-3150, and resistance is at 3250-3350.